Jared Osoro @jmosoro Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

@EvetheSinger04

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@_BarcaZone_

@tanniester

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@Marc_Y_Wang

@girlsontopstees

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@UWWAthletics

@mmojha

@JustinRay2

@Josh_Creel_Golf

@etmckinley

@DeeestinyN

@YoungDementiaLS

@irenoic

@reversestick99

@IowaBrace

Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

6 years

You argue there are no two ways and then you prescribe “eithe - or” 😆😆

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

2 years

The current story about the woes of the Kenya shilling (KES) is, at least to me and anybody who follows the game of golf, an account of whether to choose Tiger Woods’ strategy or that of John Daly. Any attempt to blend could be disastrous. Let me take you on a long walk here. /1

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

4 years

Schools have opened! We have been preparing for this since sometime last year (and made budgetary allocations)! Nothing more to add.

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

9 months

The decision by the CBK’s MPC to raise the CBR by 200 basis points to 12.5% has been depicted as a “shock”. I find myself asking: what is the shock? is it the fact the fact that there was an increase? Or the magnitude of the increase? /1

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

8 months

if Aaron Levenstein is right, then “statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.” 1/

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

5 years

A very calm and sustained lesson in financial literacy is what they need, not house allowance!

Nation Africa

@NationAfrica

5 years

Some MPs are living down along River-road. I once dropped a colleague in Kilimani only to find three MPs squatting in an SQ, they have put double deckers like in school dormitories - MP Peter Kaluma

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

5 years

Meanwhile, the economy is “firing on all cylinders”, booming as the Bretton Woods sisters tell us, and the output gap is narrowing fast as some argue. And oh, inflation is “anchored”. Is there anything I have missed?

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

4 years

Almost a year ago, my colleagues and I made an observation that I thought was obvious - the NSE doesn’t mirror the economy (see report here ). Now it’s being portrayed as a “miracle” that some listed companies are “defying” COVID!

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

5 years

@IEAKwame From Passat to V8: Ingenuity in Fiscal Consolidation

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

4 years

Interesting take by @TheEconomist on being “overstudied”, like - they suggest - Kenya is. How I wish that translated to good policy.

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

1 year

Some of my friends (e.g @reubenmuhindi ) have been engaged in a lively conversation around what the undersubscription of governments imply. At the core of this argument is the distinction between liquidity risk and solvency risk. /1

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

3 years

Of course 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

6 years

Stiglitz was bundled out of the World Bank where he was chief economist, and won a Nobel soon afterwards. Romer was recently bundled out of the World Bank where he was chief economist, and he has just been named this year’s laureate! @DavidNdii

The Nobel Prize

@NobelPrize

6 years

BREAKING NEWS: The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018 to William D. Nordhaus and Paul M. Romer. #NobelPrize

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

4 years

A lesson for vulgar pseudo Keynesians. Imagining they can grow the economy simply by more money, akin to “imagining you can grow fat by buying a big belt”.

David Ndii

@DavidNdii

4 years

Minting vs Printing of Money: A Primer on Wash Wash Economics

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

2 years

As an avid watcher of The Road Runner Show, I have never seen an attempt to slow down Wile E Coyote as he pursues the Road Runner. Such attempt will be loaded with the message that there is fear “Mr” Coyote will run off the cliff. Hence this directive. /1

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

6 years

Causation and correlation, once more😊

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

5 years

1)I will be keenly watching the economic scene in 2020. The third quarter output numbers confirm that real growth for 2019 will be lower than the official projection. Unfortunately, fiscal consolidation was predicated on revenue projections based on the official growth forecast.

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

5 years

Eight books to read to understand African economies [reading list] | OUPblog

Eight books to read to understand African economies [reading list]

Africa’s GDP growth is projected to accelerate to 4.0 percent in 2019 and 4.1 percent in 2020. The economy continues to improve in future. The study of African economy consists of trade, agriculture,...

blog.oup.com

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

5 years

If your argument is that it can make business sense without making economic sense, then you have taken leave of logic.

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

8 months

Thoughts for 2024 - an Invitation to a Long Walk We are all wishing each other a happy and prosperous new year. That is all fine, to the extent that happiness may not necessarily be a function of prosperity. /1

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

6 years

All the crazy “analysis” about CBD Matatu ban can be summarized by this picture!

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

5 years

OSORO: Is Kenyan economy ailing or just fine? Here’s how to tell via @BD_Africa

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

5 years

Good question, but more importantly: does he have Huduma number?🤣

George Bodo

@GeorgeBodo

5 years

That Alexander-Arnold Origi quick corner trick...could it be something they'd practiced?

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

5 years

XN Iraki plays good golf (his swing is as funny as it’s unique). But his economics is dodgy. He confuses correlation for causation, leading him to wild conclusions about golfing and economic growth.

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

7 months

Thinking about Kenya’s Eurobond experience has is numbing to many. So much so that asking bigger picture questions is a rarity. 1/

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

4 years

Because it lacks both the merit and the logic!

Amb (Prof) Bitange Ndemo, PhD, CBS

@bantigito

4 years

@moneyacademyKE @nderi_j @ekmokaya @reubenmuhindi @jmosoro @coldtusker Thank you. Why are Kenyan economists fretting at the thought of printing money to buy back government bonds?

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

6 years

How about Mickey Mouse being considered?

Financial Times

@FinancialTimes

6 years

Ivanka Trump, the US president's daughter, is one of the names floating around Washington as potentially the next head of the World Bank. Read more on today's Big Read about what Jim Yong Kim's departure means:

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

8 months

Eventually! That was my immediate reaction to the announcement by the Bank of Tanzania (BoT) that it has move from quantity-based to price-based monetary policy framework. 1/

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

6 years

1. In basic economics, double counting is a serious error; that is why computing GDP using output requires focus on value addition. 2. In “Journalism”,multiple counting passes as analysis.

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

4 years

According to a new study: 1) It seems delusional to imagine that leaders are “responsible” for economic growth; 2) you cannot advocate for “benevolent dictatorship ” as a growth (development) “model” unless you are under the influence of inhaling something illicit.

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

5 years

1/ So @BD_Africa is telling is is that thanks to Corona virus, Kenyans are in for a “good times ahead” as oil prices plunge! This is as crazy as it is dubious reasoning.

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

5 years

...meanwhile, the economy is growing at “near capacity” (that technical thing😊)

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

7 years

So debt sustainability is now a matter for diplomats to negotiate (dismiss), and not for economists to scientifically establish! God help us!

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

9 months

Nothing arguably fits the characteristic of Economics Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman’s definition of ‘The Accidental Theorist’ than today’s @BD_Africa editorial that is emphatic:“Steep rise in CBK rate could hurt economy”. /1

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

4 years

That was Friday 3,March 2027. The following day, I wrote this on my personal blog:

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

4 years

Speaking for myself: 1/ I am on the frontier in literature on the subject 2/ I have written on the subject (try google scholar, it helps); 3/ I read economics (I don’t watch it); 4/ I challenge you to table a paper you have written on this subject - go as far back as you want!

Amb (Prof) Bitange Ndemo, PhD, CBS

@bantigito

4 years

@haiyay @nderi_j @cnngaruiya @KetanVora4 @moneyacademyKE @ekmokaya @reubenmuhindi @jmosoro @coldtusker I think most of us are stuck with classical economic theories. In truth, no one knows what the future holds in economic and before you respond, please watch this video in its entirety.

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

6 years

Zambia’s looming debt crisis is a warning for the rest of Africa - Reckless in Lusaka

Zambia’s looming debt crisis is a warning for the rest of Africa

A decade after debt relief, the country is horribly in hock again

www.economist.com

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

4 years

I have said it before, and will say it again - the term “inflation tax” tax means something completely different than what this story is all about. I get it, there is temptation to want to sound technical; but when you do so, please make sure you are accurate @AmbokoJH

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

4 years

I will go over this slowly: National Treasury (executive) formulates tax policy, which becomes law once passed by parliament. KRA administers the tax law; so neither can arbitrarily change the law. And the “inflation tax” maneno, well... I kif up. @AmbokoJH @BD_Africa

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

6 years

Talk of wage bill as the villain is diversionary; the real issue is heavy infrastructure projects with no pretense about economic viability yet funded by commercial debt. We are staring at debt unsustainability and we think wage bill is the core problem.

M.KAY.H

@MkayhH

6 years

@Opinyi @jmosoro @PolycarpHinga If wage bill is IMAGINARY problem please tell us what ails this country

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

5 years

This has just hit my desk - fresh from the print. I am starting from pg 95; “Does anyone listen when politicians talk: The effect of political commentaries on policy rate decisions and expectations”.

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

3 years

So, after two days of climb and one day of summiting, I hit Point Lenana of Mt Kenya (16,335 ft above sea level) on Thursday 10th Feb 2022.

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

5 years

In his interest book The Accidental Theorist, Paul Krugman has a short chapter titled Vulgar Keynesianism. It’s reeling in my mind at the launch of a world bank report as speakers talk fiscal consolidation, fiscal intervention in the same breath!

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

4 years

If at all there’s capacity (courage) to admit that he has no clue on matters inter/macro/monetary/financial economics, I’d be happy to prescribe some basic reading. My suspicion though:it’s easy for one to wrap oneself in profoundly sounding commentary even when making no sense.

Reuben M Wambui🏇🏿

@reubenmuhindi

4 years

@moneyacademyKE Dr. Bitange Ndemo @bantigito , with all due respect, this is not how money printing works, otherwise developing countries would not be in debt anyway. Also the US comparison of dollar printing is invalid. @jmosoro @coldtusker @nderi_j Monetary economics to the rescue

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

5 years

Why care about productivity etc when there is an “easy” route of price control? Crazy

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

5 years

Remember githeriman? Your succinct observation hardly surprises. It’s as if “why be thorough if you easily get away with laziness?” is the official mantra.

Tim Gitonga

@Tim_Gitonga

5 years

Peter Tabichi will be the guest of nearly all media houses now that he's a winner. But never did they follow his journey, locally and abroad until the day of victory!

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

5 years

Forget about context, but the joke for January 2020 is right here🤣.

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

6 years

1. A narrative has been created that the need for fiscal discipline is an IMF bitter bill; reality, the government needs to rationalize expenditure instead of random taxation

Moe

@moneyacademyKE

6 years

Kenya will not sign KShs 150Billion IMF insurance loan as long as it is tied to stringent conditions such as removal of interest rate cap. IMF economic recommendations are out of touch with local reality -- Advisor to Kenya President Dr. Wagacha

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

6 years

This is an editorial in the @BD_Africa . Hardly surprising that they miss the basics of the standby facility (it is not a loan; it is more of an insurance policy). As I have argued, a unfortunate narrative is being created here.

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

4 years

There ain’t anything wrong with self-ambition, so long as it isn’t in conflict with societal good. The counsel of ‘being broke is overrated’ needs to be seen in that context. What I see everyday is where ambition is drive be the unwritten mantra that ‘greed is good’.

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

4 years

Just in case they all drop dead? How about a mandatory Coronavirus test as a prudential measure? Just asking.

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

4 years

Some relief from a liquidity management standpoint. Six months is still a short period. With Chinese debt not being part of this, the NPV of the debt doesn’t change much.

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

6 years

Demand following or supply leading? 🤣

Financial Times

@FT

6 years

Coca-Cola exploring cannabis drinks business

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

5 years

Before you jump into concluding that any road (or railway) that is done in Africa amounts to development, have a go at this interesting paper!

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

3 years

I recently had an exchange with a pseudo-economist who only sees the US$ as a reserve currency with the lens of dollar printing. If only he had the capacity to read this paper! …….Dominant-currency pricing and the global output spillovers from US dol...

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

5 years

May be you would consider asking: are they running the central banks using legal doctrines or economics principles?

George Bodo

@GeorgeBodo

5 years

Lawyers (by training) running the two largest Central Banks in the world-the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Is there loss of faith in the profession of economics?

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

5 years

So we had to fight our way up. As B. Appelbaum (2019) argues in ‘The Economists’ Hour’, Paul Volker (recently deceased) could only be a human calculator while a stock broker headed the Fed! This is my first book for 2020 😊

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

3 years

Any surprises? @kiplangat_josea and I have a forthcoming paper about liquidity - profitability tradeoffs and how that balance is size-sensitive in a banking system characterized by small-big segmentation (you have had a glimpse of the draft paper ☺️)

Julians Amboko

@AmbokoJH

3 years

Prime Bank's loan to deposit is 38.2%...Wueeeeh!

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

3 years

Mr. Keynes and the “Classics”; A Suggested Reinterpretation

www.nber.org

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

7 years

When you see growth being driven more by factor accumulation and less by increasing productivity, I smell regression

Singh

@DumeSingh

7 years

@jmosoro How do you opine on the economic growth rate...stagnant, regressive or otherwise?

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

5 years

Talk of ‘acumen’ or seeing the gap! Friedman was given permission to “hawk” white socks and green ties to a ‘captive market’. He ‘diversified to used text books, to the chagrin of the campus bookstore. After all, it wasn’t excluded.

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

5 years

I wrote this two years ago and it’s relevant today. @DavidNdii

Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

5 years

OSORO: Is Kenyan economy ailing or just fine? Here’s how to tell via @BD_Africa

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

2 years

The proposal to issue dollar-denominated bonds in the local market is interesting. Its motivation, practicality and consequences need careful examination . @reubenmuhindi . . 1/

How dollar bond will release idle billions

The government now wants to give Kenyans stockpiling dollars in banks an incentive to release the money into the economy.

www.businessdailyafrica.com

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

6 years

My thoughts on the #FinanceBill debate in its entirety in one picture! @Ramah_Nyang

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

4 years

The Wile E.Coyote Monent! Don’t look down @Watimz . WATIMA: CBK, we have an exchange rate problem via @BD_Africa

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

2 years

I have – eventually – finished reading Charlie Roberson’s ( @RencapMan ) new book, The Time Traveling Economist: Why Education, Electricity and Fertility re Key to Escaping Poverty. It is an interesting read, for it picks on a topic that is as exciting as its controversial. /1

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

5 years

1. The fun continues! So Keynes thrived by arguing that monetary policy alone can’t do it. He quipped that trying to solely rely on money policy to spur growth is akin to “trying to grow fat by buying a larger belt”.

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

3 years

It may be worth reading the paper/book by Paul Krugman that makes the same case, arguing that ‘a country is not a company’.

Reuben M Wambui🏇🏿

@reubenmuhindi

3 years

Presidents aren’t CEOs. The belief that the president is a nation’s CEO is a misconception that warps understanding of how government works. A president’s world is not monolithic and presidential power is by and large confined to the power of persuasion.

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

4 years

1/ There is something about the print version of journals that I find fascinating; even after devouring the online version, I still wait for the print. With COVID19, the lag has been 4 months! I start with “Chameleons: The misuse of Theoretical Models in Fimance and Economics”

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

6 years

True! And the Business Daily is “The Nairobian” equivalent of business “news” 😊

Singh

@DumeSingh

6 years

Shylocking, period!

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

4 years

Thomas Piketty @PikettyLeMonde is great. The ‘first’ Capital was great -actually compelling. Now this is dizzying, I need a month of self quarantine to finish reading the ‘second’ Capital - a whole 1093 pages.

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

1 year

Basic econometrics: there is a different between correlation and causation. @AmbokoJH

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

6 years

I have been engaging my thoughts on economic policy spillover effects. I am now in the modeling stage and this picture that I picked from social media is my starting point.

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

3 years

1/ Isn’t only me who is not seeing this “rebound”? Whoever projected v shaped recovery is quickly saving face with a downward revision. 2/ Firms are operating at excess capacity, meaning the binding constraint is capacity utilization. Additional I comes down the road (t+3 😉).

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

6 years

Funny we are always looking for somebody to blame! Take the media creation of "IMF" policies while turn a blind eye on our many wrong turns! My thoughts (it is a bit long and slightly (only slightly) technical) - @alykhansatchu @moneyacademyKE @DavidNdii

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

2 years

Before hectic schedules of the year kick in, I spent the morning working on “restocking” for the next quarter. A visit to Bookstop is always a pleasure. Even when I don’t get all that is in my reading list (I got none today), a walk through on the aisles and perusing is a joy. /1

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

3 years

China’s secret loan contracts reveal its hold over low-income nations via @financialtimes

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

4 years

Obama had great admiration for Larry Summers as a start economist. The description of Larry’s demeanor is however as hilarious as it’s less flattering🤣🤣🤣🤣

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

4 years

So for the second quarter of 2020, the Kenyan economy shrank by 5.7% compared to a 5.3% expansion in the corresponding quarter in 2019. I am waiting for the excuse of all those who have been “talking things up” - substituting hope for forecast!

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

5 years

So I am not alone?

David Ndii

@DavidNdii

5 years

Difficult to believe that this Op-Ed is written by a business professor. BELLOWS: Kenya’s economic history and increasing public debt via @BD_Africa

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

5 years

If it’s true that: i =f(y, r), then empirics tell us that the coefficient of y is much higher than the coefficient of r. Where i = investing in MAkiba, y = disposal income and r = promised return (yield).

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

6 years

I thought John Mbadi is a trained accountant? Even if he wasn’t, does he want to tell the country that he doesn’t know that a budget has two sides(revenue and expenditure)? This is not funny!

Citizen TV Kenya

@citizentvkenya

6 years

John Mbadi: We got to know the revenue-raising measures to finance gov'ts expenditure after we had approved the budget #MondaySpecial w/ @AnneKiguta

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

7 years

Vol. 34 of The Oxford Review of Economic Policy is out;all the papers in it are great; diving in for the next week!

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

5 years

Correlation or causation?

The Economist

@TheEconomist

5 years

When weed is legalised, alcohol sales drop and junk food flies off the shelves

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

2 years

This is how the legends used to work, and that is how they created stuff that informed how we think about stuff - in the case of Robert Solow, how to think about economic growth! 😊😊

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

6 years

Research shows electing women makes a real difference in people’s lives

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

5 years

The most interesting and apt welcome of the new PM by @TheEconomist !

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

2 years

I was once invited to a panel where my fellow panelist was an “African expert” whose only claim to understanding Africa is a three-year stint as an accompanying spouse. I feel insulated and made sure that I debunked every statement she made (and all of them needed debunking).

Kwame Owino

@IEAKwame

2 years

Folks, I receive too many invite for another policy discussion on "China in Africa", for which there are no Africans on the panel. I usually 🗑️ them. 👇🏽

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

4 years

2/ “An exorbitant privilege in the first age of international financial integration” will wait until I am done with ‘The Dollar Trap’ - and that is one week!

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

7 years

Interesting stuff; the chart tracking the price of Tuna in Japan looks like Tuna 😂

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

5 years

Your favorite “analyst’s” view on banks’ consolidation that are based on excel spreadsheets at best - otherwise back-of-the-envelope computations - could be misleading. Our thoughts:

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

1 year

This makes sense. First, the commencement of the the tightening cycle was at best feeble. Some of us argued that a 50bp hike and then you pose for 4 months is materially different from two consequences increases every 2 months. It’s not the end; it’s the signal of the journey. /1

Julians Amboko

@AmbokoJH

1 year

Making sense of Dr Thugge's jumbo rate hike: 1. Highest rate hike since the present tightening cycle began in March '22 2. Unusual occurrence of a policy adjustment outside the bi-monthly MPC calendar 3. First time the benchmark rate is in double digits since January 2018

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

4 years

I know it’s Christmas, but couldn’t resist this 😉😉😉😉

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

2 years

FOREIG EXCHANGE MARKET - A SEQUEL: One lesson is trickling in. Clear communication (not PR) is a policy tool. It can be underdone (guidance needed but not given); it can be overdone (jump at the slightest sign of danger). It takes calibration to find the right balance. /1

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

9 months

Thus, the causal effect doesn’t run from tight monetary policy to NPLs. Not does it run in the opposite direction. The nexus is tenuous. Trust @BD_Africa to confuse correlation with causation. /10

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

3 years

With an easy 54’, the antelopes are not in play! Still going for the pin ⛳️

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

5 years

I didn’t expect such dubious comparison by @TheEconomist . It makes no sense comparing a country with 54 heterogeneous countries by simply aggregate output and seeing which is more.

The Economist

@TheEconomist

5 years

The combined economy of Africa’s 54 countries is smaller than that of France

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

3 years

I made a similar argument in a 2018 empirical paper.

Leo Kemboi

@LeoKemboi

3 years

However, @IEAKwame argues that financial inclusion requires the expansion of not just access, but also options to manage risk, transfer property, aggregate savers and borrowers and facilitate capital allocation." @Watimz @DavidNdii @jmosoro @tamarabcook

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

4 years

Not too long ago, I made the same observation based on my take of the local equities market.

New York Times Opinion

@nytopinion

4 years

"Stock markets never bear much relationship to the real economy, but these days they don’t seem to have much to do with reality in general," @PaulKrugman notes

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Jared Osoro

@jmosoro

2 years

After doing my civic duty of voting, my plan has been simple. 1/ work; 2/ take time to catch up with friends over coffee; 3/ wait for the the winners/losers to the announced; and 4/ reflect on the implications of the results. Simple!

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