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Inglourious Capital

@inglouriouscap

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It's all a schadenfreude. Reformed stressed/distressed credit. Now L/S equity sitting on a beach.

London, UK
Joined December 2017
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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@inglouriouscap
Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
4 months
"We're gonna let WeWork exclude SG&A from EBITDA?" "It's an add-back for them" "How is it an add-back?" "Jerry all these big companies they add-back everything" "You don't even know what an add-back is" "Do you?" "No" "But they do. And they're the ones adding it back"
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@inglouriouscap
Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
So I tried TikTok. Got my first real look at finance TikTok and…
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@inglouriouscap
Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
*Buys company with no viable path to profitability for 40x forward sales* *Watches company tank 80%* "Damn federal reserve"
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@inglouriouscap
Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
So just to recap: the fed gave us near-zero rates for a decade and we spent all the money on things like grocery delivery and ape pictures instead of food, housing and energy supplies. Geniuses.
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@inglouriouscap
Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
3 years
@ChrisBloomstran Fuck, tell me about it. A Google search of “Gates” the founder of Microsoft, brings up some third-rate pedestrian rationing mechanism. The world has gone mad.
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@inglouriouscap
Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
A zero interest-rate world in photos: Google's office slide in Tel Aviv, Israel.
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@inglouriouscap
Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
Don’t worry $FB shareholders I gotchu
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
In my very long finance career, I have never seen anything like this.
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@inglouriouscap
Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
Facebook is the type of buy you'll get the chance to tell your kids about someday: "Kids, I bought Facebook at $220 per share" "Oh wow!! What's Facebook?"
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@inglouriouscap
2 years
“The Dow Jones bar” in Barcelona. Stock exchanged themed bar where drink prices are based on demand for drinks.
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@inglouriouscap
2 years
I see lots of people talking about bitcoin in the face of this selloff. Please, do your research before you rush to judgements. When you do the work properly and understand the opportunity of $BTC as an investment, you come to realize that it's worth absolutely nothing.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
3 years
@ChrisBloomstran And not to mention, when I misspell “Buffet”, we don’t get the oracle. NOOO, we get some shitty American cultural food occasion. The world is insane.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
"And if we use our platform to exert just a tiny bit of pressure, their OpEx spend will explode on a gigantic useless headset."
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
Alright, I might come to regret dropping this, but I think $SHOP is a screaming short going into earnings. $FB says on their call that IDFA hit ecom the hardest. Shopify merchants rely heavily on Facebook for lead gens. Shopify is only down 3% since facebook reported.
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@inglouriouscap
Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
11 days
Bill Ackman right now
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
3 years
$NFLX in November "Squid game is truly a testament to the benefits of global scale in the streaming wars. Only Netflix can do what they do." $NFLX now "Debt-ridden, no moat, ex-growth domestically and facing increased competition from other services. Overvalued shitco."
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
4 years
I'm beginning to suspect that Alex Ovechkin, Evgeni Kuznetsov, and Nick Backstrom were responsible for the Capitals 2018 Cup win - not Jay Beagle.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
3 years
The weirdest part about Toffoli is how historically reckless the Canucks have been with UFA spending. Of all the times to tighten their offseason spend, they chose the exact moment that a good player wanting to return was available for cheap.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
New one in the collection. It had to be done $FB
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
Unbelievable opportunity. $FB is currently priced as if it were highly capital intensive and facing significant headwinds in the core business with suspect capital allo…. Oh
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
7 months
An unbelievable turn of events, but I’ve just been told Bill Belichick is going to be joining Apollo. Heard saying: “It really is the golden age of private credit. I’m seeing senior secured opportunities with tight docs at 15%+. Going back to football makes no sense right now”
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
3 years
New Howard Marks memo coming out soon saying that it may be a time to buy, but it also may not be a time a buy.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
When your favourite position has a 25%+ drawdown
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
3 years
The fact that $V puts up 60% operating margins on $20 billion+ in revenue is still mind blowing. As is the fact that they require almost no growth capex and maintain an incredible moat. Quality isn’t everything in investing, but it’s often hard to imagine a better business.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
3 years
Haven’t seen someone get screwed like that at a hockey game since the 2011 Stanley cup finals
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
7 months
David Tepper running Appaloosa vs David Tepper running the Carolina Panthers
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
3 years
Honestly, no idea why I bother doing any investing research. I can literally just buy a monopoly at 27x TTM FCF with >35% operating margins in its core segment and able to CAGR FCF/share @ 20% a year for the foreseeable future. Little niche name we’ll call schmoogle.
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@inglouriouscap
2 years
If you own $BTC, i have some fantastic news: you still have an opportunity to sell $19,981 above fair value.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
3 years
Oh man, I'm gonna get eviscerated. I'm ready for it. $NFLX
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
$BYND continues to make every effort to remind you that it's the Michael Jordan of shitty businesses. 0.2% gross margins. $97.6 million loss from operations. Just an absolute garbage business run by a pumper.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
9 months
Wish me luck gang!
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@chamath
Chamath Palihapitiya
@chamath
9 months
We’ve decided to hire a CEO for All-In. Old media is broken. Talking heads, selling ads, inciting anger, with one-sided discourse has become tiresome and is deeply damaging the social fabric. We want to tackle this error and create a new kind of media and live events brand
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2 years
$GOOG post split is only going to be a ~$120 stock. For those of you keeping track, that's a ~2.8% CAGR since IPO. Smh my head.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
I like to spend time going through investment ideas from smart people that broke miserably. As I do this, I see one mistake responsible for a vast majority of them: calling a low-quality company cheap relative to overvalued comps.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
3 years
Facebook with a new name
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2 years
Man, a tough quarter for $btc. We'll have to see what management says on the call, but in the meantime, I don't know that I have to revise my model. Gonna be an interesting name to watch...
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
Been digging a bit through $GOOG's IPO. It's pretty crazy to me. Basically: - Grew topline 11x over previous two years - Had $450 million in cash (~2.4% of market cap) - EBIT margins: 14%, 54%, 36% over 3 years prior. - Traded at 33x '05 EPS, Here's the I/S from Google's S-1
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
So wanted to share….just accepted a buy-side job I’m super excited about. Unfortunately (or fortunately) this is going to mean a lot less tweeting out of me on specific names starting in the next few weeks. Will remain somewhat active though, and still a DM away!
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
3 years
Pretty proud of this one. One more to go. Let’s get at it!
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2 years
Visa full year: $29 bn in revenue, $18.8 bn in operating cash flow, and $920 million in CapEx. Is that good?
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
3 years
I think the guys who found Duclair, Verhaeghe, and Marchessault at a combined lower cap hit than Tyler Myers should get a look. Ya.
@taj1944
Taj
@taj1944
3 years
Elliotte mentions how Panthers are letting Cam Lawrence go and "those guys kinda grew up with Vancouver ties, I wonder if you're the Canucks if you should be looking at that." #BringComputerBoyzHome
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
3 years
JP Barry: *does the Loui Eriksson deal* *does the Tyler Myers deal* JP Barry: “Ya the Canucks have cap issues I think idk”
@DhaliwalSports
Rick Dhaliwal
@DhaliwalSports
3 years
JP Barry : Canucks have cap issues, I dont think we can do long term deals for Petey and Quinn. We have starte dthe dance, we are engaged in talks. Donnie and Dhali CHEK TV
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3 years
@Keubiko Apple and oranges to compare disruptive new players like Rivian with old legacy automakers like Tesla.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
If you're wondering if the selloff is completed yet, allow me to direct your attention to this beauty *still* somehow worth $2 billion
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
3 years
Here are combined industry market caps by 2030 according to ARK: - $100 trillion for AI - $30 trillion for autonomous vehicles - $10 trillion in robotics - $3 trillion for genomes - $50 trillion for digital wallets The combined market cap of the S&P 500 is ~$40 trillion today
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
This speech (especially 14:16) remains my favourite thing Warren Buffett has ever produced. Worth revisiting today.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
3 years
I joined the $AMZN knife catchers today.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
3 years
Arkk $TSLA model has $200 billion in cash on the balance sheet in 2025. That’s a cool 5x TTM Tesla REVENUE or ~3x $GOOG TTM free cash flow. Amazing stuff.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
3 years
I've often said you can't derive intrinsic value for $BTC. In the face of the pullback, I thought it was worth looking at. I've realized I was wrong. You can model intrinsic value for bitcoin. This is why you always do your own work.
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1 year
Roommate’s habit of “investing” in Lego sets has gotten out of hand. Rates aren’t high enough.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
Everybody’s buying the dip in shitcos. We got 500k follower accounts saying things like “Affirm is my pick going into earnings. They just announced a huge partnership with visa, which should be huge.”
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
3 years
Lol $FB has more cash from ops than $TSLA has revenue
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
Am I the only one who thinks UK annual reports look like home decor magazines with more numbers? They're just so bad for digging out the important drivers. Every time I look at a UK business, I gain appreciation for US 10Ks.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
Too good to stay off Twitter
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2 years
@AnirudhGovil For the sake of everybody...that's part of the joke lol
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@inglouriouscap
2 years
$FB basically says IDFA is a tailwind for $GOOG b/c it makes them the best available option for certain verticals (ecomm specifically).
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3 years
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2 years
Thinking about dotcom and 2021 makes me realize that a charlatan telling retail investors to “stick it to the man” is one of the biggest tell-tale signs of a mania.
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The SPAC King Goes Silent With His Empire Shriveling

The news came with little fanfare. It was late on a sleepy summer afternoon last week, and few on Wall Street even seemed to notice the pair of filings when they hit the SEC website.

www.bloomberg.com
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@inglouriouscap
Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
I'm pretty sure 95% of people thought "how can that be a good business?" the first time they heard the $ROKU pitch. There's a lesson in there somewhere about overthinking.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
For fun - give me your best trade idea. No compounders, just special sits/deep value.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
3 years
Chatted with a friend yesterday who runs a digital ad business. Anecdotal, but here's what he said: - $GOOG is far and away the best. - IDFA has made $FB mobile way harder - but still doable. - He's never run a $TWTR ad - Bing is good for seniors who can't install chrome
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@inglouriouscap
2 years
@ThomasWLamont haha glad someone noticed
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@inglouriouscap
4 years
Was just thinking that Christian Ehrhoff may be the most underappreciated Canuck of the last few decades. Elite defensemen and people act like he was an above-average second-pairing guy.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
If you buy a significantly over earning business because of the low P/E multiple, you deserve what’s coming….
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
Here's an idea: have no view on inflation or rate hikes and just buy well-capitalized businesses with pricing power at a reasonable multiple of free cash flow.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
Too many people remain anchored to the high price/NTM revenue multiples we’ve seen. As a reminder, in a sane world 10x forward revenues is abnormally high.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
Iger paid $71 billion for Fox and people are excited he’s back lol
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
Chamath tells everybody not to sell a $TSLA share, but then he dumps his entire stake. Why is that?
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
🔥 quarter from $SNAP
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
Pray for the poor soul out there who read "You Can Be a Stock Market Genius" as his first investing book and then bought the $VMEO spin.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
Was thinking tonight…90% of screwups I’ve made in investing come from not asking two questions: 1) is the piece of information I’m looking at critically important for an investment outcome or is it just noise? 2) Is the narrative I’ve created supported by hard evidence?
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 months
*Oaktree taking over Inter Milan* Howard Marks "As I said in my previous memo, while this may be the time to be aggressive in the transfer window, this also may not be the time to be aggressive in the transfer window"
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
3 years
Starting the $BABA annual report vs finishing the $BABA annual report
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
Without considering hindsight, what’s the most obvious trade you’ve seen in your investing career and what made it obvious?
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2 years
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3 years
Just went through another thesis that claimed a company was cheap relative to its vastly superior (and occasionally overpriced) comps. Thought a Lisa Simpson presentation meme was in order:
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
4 years
Only thing that would make this better is the Athletties. Missing Botch tonight.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
3 years
Alright y’all, a $RICK model via Dropbox (and possibly a writeup - not that you needed another one) is coming soon. Just working out the kinks on the model. Think a company trading at <10x normalized maintenance FCF + able to grow FCF/share >25% is too compelling not to writeup.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
8 months
Private credit funds doing due diligence
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
3 years
Dubas and Shanahan could get fired before Benning. What a world.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
3 years
Because I get the same pushback way too often on the durability of $V and $MA
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
Think a lot of people need to hear this: backing nascent technologies through the public markets is arguably the worst performing equity strategy of all time.
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@inglouriouscap
3 years
Exciting personal news: I’m taking my talents to Sweden where everybody apparently achieves 40% CAGRs. HFSP my non-Swedish friends. /s
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
4 years
Great excerpt from 2015 talk @sfiscience here. Daniel Kahneman on how often expert opinion works. Full transcript: YT:
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
My deeply held belief is that $FB actually trades at $450 per share, they’ve just manipulated the stock exchange so that regulators think their stock is underperforming.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
3 years
When I value a FAAMG (or $V), I always get pushback on the exit multiple. I thought I’d clear a few things up. Skip all of this if you’re taken an intro to finance course, but basically, start with the terminal value function: MVE = CF*(1+g)/(r-g)
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
3 years
Buying $V deep out-of-the-money calls tomorrow could be the most profitable trade of our lifetimes.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
3 years
Been glued to this thing all weekend. Well worth it for identifying the unsuccessful management teams that appear to have it all together. Yet to finish, but definitely should be up there with the outsiders + cable cowboy on a reading list (h/t @PythiaR for the rec)
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
Everyone out here making fun of CFA and I've gone out like once in three weeks because I'm stuck inside studying lol
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Inglourious Capital
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10 months
Time to update my Hinge….I mean my LinkedIn
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3 years
$SQ diluted the hell out of their shareholders to acquire a shitco and people act like Jack Dorsey is somehow a different CEO at "Block" than he is at $TWTR.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
So maybe I'm missing the deep reality of the business, but I can't see how $RDFN isn't a zero. Sales + 63% YoY in H1, and operating margins somehow got even MORE negative. Company burned ~$180 million in cash with $379 million in left on the b/s and $326 mill in avail facilities.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
What the 13-f doesn’t tell you is that Michael Burry dumped all his equity holdings to invest in Adam Neumann’s new venture.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
Y’all didn’t know $SHOP
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
19 days
Whelp, ink is dry and the stage is set: I'm moving to NYC and becoming a pod monkey. Let's get at it.
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Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
We don't really talk enough about how crazy some of the convert deals in Q1 2021 were. 80%+ conversion premiums and 0% coupons all around $BYND, $ABNB, $PTON, $TWTR....
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@inglouriouscap
Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
2 years
Lots of adding to the "risk factors" section of $FB's 10k vs 2020. Additions denoted in blue. Some interesting ones...
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@inglouriouscap
Inglourious Capital
@inglouriouscap
3 years
Last time the Canucks acquired a draft pick straight up for a roster player:
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