IHP MRP Pres. Elec. Voting Intent, early Sept '24*
Anura Dissanayake led with 48% of voter support, followed by Sajith Premadasa and Pres. Ranil Wickremesinghe.
AKD 48% (+8)
Sajith P 25% (-7)
Pres Ranil W 20% (=)
Namal R 5% (-1)
* % of adults
** IHP model estimates for 13 Sept
NPP/JVP leader
@anuradisanayake
the only party leader with a positive favourability rating (+7) in Apr ’23. Rating for Pres.
@RW
UNP (-39) and
@sajithpremadasa
(-26) remained negative.
Further details:
AK Dissanayake's and Pres Ranil Wickremesinghe’s favorability increased in July 2024 in IHP SLOTS latest polling.
@anuradisanayake
rose 29pts to +3 became the only party leader with a positive rating, while
@RW_SRILANKA
surged 40pts to -24.
#SriLanka
#PresidentialElection2024
1/3
IHP MRP Presidential Election Voting Intent, Feb '24*
@anuradisanayake
continues to lead with 53% of all adults
AKD 53% (+1)
Sajith P 34% (=)
Pres Ranil W 6% (-2)
SLPP candidate 7% (+1)
* % of adults
** IHP model estimates as of 03/24
*** MOE 0.9–2.7%
IHP MRP Pres. Elec. Voting Intent, Aug '24*
@anuradisanayake
and
@sajithpremadasa
led, neck-and-neck within the model’s MOE.
AKD 36% (-1)
Sajith P 32% (-4)
Pres Ranil W 28% (+6)
Namal R 3% (-1)
* % of adults
** IHP model estimates as of 2 Sept ‘24
*** MOE 3–7%
We are pleased to share our global analysis of the impact of PCR testing on COVID-19 spread, which was just published in
@Health_Affairs
.
@ravirannaneliya
In August 2024, IHP's SLOTS polling shows that
@sajithpremadasa
’s favourability rating improved to -32 (+10pts). Meanwhile,
@anuradisanayake
dropped to -21 (-16pts), and President
@RW_SRILANKA
saw a slight decline to -33 (-4pts).
@RajapaksaNamal
recorded the lowest rating at -89.
Our latest
#SLOTS
MRP estimates of Presidential Election voting intent for September 2023 show AKD with a clear lead in preferences amongst likely voters (46%) with small drops in support for Sajith P (29%), Pres. Ranil W (17%) and generic SLPP candidate (8%). *MOE=1–3%
IHP Presidential Election , June '24*
@sajithpremadasa
leads
@anuradisanayake
by 13 points but within the model’s MOE.
AKD 30%(-6)
Sajith P 43%(+4)
Pres Ranil W 20%(+3)
SLPP candidate 7%(-1)
* % of adults
** IHP model estimates as of 06/24
*** MOE 1–11%
IHP MRP Presidential Election Voting Intent, May '24*
@sajithpremadasa
and
@anuradisanayake
still ahead
AKD 39% (-2)
Sajith P 38% (=)
Pres Ranil W 15% (+3)
SLPP candidate 7% (-2)
* % of adults
** IHP model estimates as of 05/24
*** MOE 1–4%
IHP MRP Presidential Election Voting Intent, July '24*
@anuradisanayake
and
@sajithpremadasa
led neck and neck, within model's MOE.
AKD 37% (0)
Sajith P 36% (-2)
Pres Ranil W 23% (+3)
SLPP candidate 4% (0)
* % of adults
** IHP model estimates as of 19 Aug ‘24
*** MOE 1–3%
1/4
The latest IHP SLOTS polling shows that majority of poorer Sri Lankans see the economy as the top national issue, while the majority of the better-off are more concerned about inflation. Economic anxiety is not the same for everyone.
#SriLanka
#PublicOpinion
#SLOTS
#Elections
1/5
Our latest
#SLOTS
MRP estimates of Presidential Election voting intent for October 2023 show support for AKD reaching half the likely electorate (51%). Support for Sajith P (30%), Pres. Ranil W (13%) and generic SLPP candidate (6%) at similar levels to previous months.*MOE=1–4%
Our latest
#SLOTS
MRP estimates of Presidential Election voting intent for June 2023 shows support for AKD and Sajith P fell to 40% and 35% respectively, while support for Ranil W was unchanged (15%) and a generic SLPP candidate gained 2 pts (9%). *MOE=1-3%
IHP SLOTS MRP Gen. Election Voting Intent July ’24*
SJB and NPP/JVP leading with both securing one-third of adult voters’ support.
SJB 34% (-1)
NPP/JVP 32% (-2)
SLPP 13% (0)
UNP 7% (-1)
ITAK 5%(-1)
* % of adults
** Provisional MRP estimates as of 07/24
*** MOE 1–3% 1/4
27 Apr in Sri Lanka.
14,365 PCR tests done. 1111 new cases detected.
Seven day average of PCR tests = 14,279 per day.
Test positivity = 7.7%.
Seven day average = 6.0%.
#COVID19SL
#COVID19LK
#lka
October
#SLOTS
MRP estimates of GE voting intent show no real change in voting intentions amongst likely voters (MOE=1–5%):
NPP/JVP: 40%
SJB: 26%
UNP: 11%
SLPP: 5%
SLFP: 5%, ITAK: 4%, Others: 9%
Full details:
AK Dissanayake led Sajith Premadasa in Presidential Election voting intent in IHP's revised MRP model provisional Dec '23 estimates:
AKD 50% (-2 from Nov)
Sajith P 33% (+1)
Pres Ranil W 9% (-1)
SLPP candidate 8% (+1)
* % of adults
** MOE 1.5–4.0%
Favourability ratings of NPP/JVP leader
@anuradisanayake
fell by 15 points to -44 in July ‘23. SJB leader
@sajithpremadasa
improved slightly to -44 while Pres. Wickremesinghe
@RW
UNP remained at -52.
Further details:
In the first half of 2024 (Jan-Jul), there were significant shifts in support for likely major Presidential candidates in IHP's MRP estimates. RW’s support more than doubled to 22% in Jun-Jul, while support for AKD, SP, and a generic SLPP candidate dropped.
#SriLanka2024
1/5
Our latest
#SLOTS
polling shows the public maintains deeply negative, worsening views of all political party leaders. But Pres. Ranil Wickremasinghe
@RW_UNP
had the least negative favourability ratings (-46%) in Nov compared with
@sajithpremadasa
(-57%) & AK Dissanayake (-55%).
IHP SLOTS MRP Gen. Election Voting Intent August ’24*
SJB and NPP/JVP in a statistical tie, leading with 29% and 28% of adult voter support.
SJB 29% (-3)
NPP/JVP 28% (-2)
SLPP 19% (+2)
UNP 9% (+2)
ITAK 4% (-1)
* % of adults
** Provisional MRP estimates as of 08/24
*** MOE 1–3%
AN APOLOGY
We messed up last week ☹️
We sincerely apologise for a major slip up. We posted polling results from our data team without linking the underlying report as our usual practice, the link itself did not work, and we inadvertently deleted the tweet.
— IHP Comms Team
As Govt aims to rationalize spending, Sri Lankans want more spending on health + education in line with IMF views.
#SLOTS
polling (Oct/Nov ‘22) finds most prioritize health (66%) and education (60%) for more spending, whilst police and roads most favoured for spending cuts.
Our latest
#SLOTS
MRP estimates of Presidential Election voting intent for April 2023 shows AKD leading at 45% followed by Sajith P (37%), Ranil W (13%) and a generic SLPP candidate (6%). *MOE=1-4%
September
#SLOTS
MRP estimates of GE voting intent show NPP/JVP (42%) leads amongst likely voters, but support slipping for SJB (22%), SLPP (8%) and other unnamed parties (5%). (MOE=1–3%)
Full details:
2 Jun in Sri Lanka.
21,697 PCR tests done. 3,306 new cases detected.
Seven day average of PCR tests = 20,371 per day.
Test positivity = 15.2%.
Seven day average = 14.2%.
#COVID19SL
#COVID19LK
#lka
Our latest
#SLOTS
MRP estimates of Presidential Election voting intent for July 2023 shows an increase in support for Ranil W (19%), while support for AKD and Sajith P fell to 39% and 33% respectively. *MOE=1-3%
📣Excited to share that our review of Sri Lanka's
#COVID19
response is out in
@GlobalHealthBMJ
Part of a wider study
@exemplarshealth
, it looks at:
▶️How well did we maintain health services?
▶️What did we do well?
▶️What did we get wrong?
▶️And why?
3 Jul in Sri Lanka.
9,279 PCR tests done. 1,262 new cases detected.
Seven day average of PCR tests = 16,428 per day.
Test positivity = 13.6%.
Seven day average = 10.7%.
#COVID19SL
#COVID19LK
#lka
02 Aug in Sri Lanka
11,293 PCR tests done. 2,420 new cases detected.
Seven day average of PCR tests = 14,069 per day.
Test positivity (using PCR tests) = 21.4%.
Seven day average = 15.8%.
#COVID19SL
#COVID19LK
#lka
29 Apr in Sri Lanka.
27,104 PCR tests done. 1,531 new cases detected.
Seven day average of PCR tests = 17,583 per day.
Test positivity = 5.6%.
Seven day average = 6.3%.
#COVID19SL
#COVID19LK
#lka
Our latest
#SLOTS
MRP estimates of Presidential Election voting intent for May 2023 shows AKD and Sajith P fell to 38% and 34% respectively, while support increased by 4pts for Ranil W (18%) and a generic SLPP candidate (10%). *MOE=1-4%
Increases in support for
@RW_SRILANKA
were widespread, pulling voters from both Sajith and AKD. He gained significantly among the better-off (+17%), Sinhala voters (+16%), and older voters (+24%). His largest gain was among anti-Aragalaya voters (+26) and Gotabaya 2019
NPP/JVP leader
@anuradisanayake
‘s favourability improved to -19 in Sep. ‘23, ahead of Pres. Wickremesinghe’s
@RW_UNP
at -57 and SJB leader
@sajithpremadasa
at -53.
Further details:
IHP MRP Presidential Election Voting Intent, Jan '24
@anuradisanayake
leads with 50% of all adults
AKD 50% (-1)
Sajith P 36% (+2)
Pres Ranil W 7% (-2)
SLPP candidate 7% (+2)
* % of adults
** IHP model estimates as of 02/24
*** MOE 0.5–3.0%
30 Aug in Sri Lanka
13,936 PCR tests done. 4,562 new cases detected.
Seven day average of PCR tests = 15,678 per day.
Test positivity (using PCR tests) = 32.7%.
Seven day average = 33.9%.
#COVID19SL
#COVID19LK
#lka
Our daily update for 30 Jun 2021 in Sri Lanka. 1,864 new cases reported, 47 deaths occurred on 29 June, and 16,279 PCR tests done.
#COVID19SL
#COVID19LK
#lka
30 Nov in Sri Lanka:
🧪7,463 COVID PCR done, 503 new cases detected.
Seven day average of PCR tests = 11,469 per day
Test positivity = 6.7%.
Seven day average = 4.3%.
#COVID19SL
#COVID19LK
#lka
Our daily update for 29 Jul 2021 in Sri Lanka. 2,370 new cases reported, 66 deaths occurred on 28 July, and 12,578 PCR tests and 5,615 Rapid Antigen Tests done.
#COVID19SL
#COVID19LK
#lka
24 Aug in Sri Lanka
18,051 PCR tests done. 4,446 new cases detected.
Seven day average of PCR tests = 18,390 per day.
Test positivity (using PCR tests) = 24.6%.
Seven day average = 26.4%.
#COVID19SL
#COVID19LK
#lka
As Sri Lankans head to the polls, the latest SLOTS data shows that large majorities want the govt to prioritize increasing spending on health (78%) and education (64%). These were the top priorities across all demographics.
#SriLanka2024
#PollingResults
1/5
6 Sep in Sri Lanka
9,977 PCR tests done. 3,182 new cases detected.
Seven day average of PCR tests = 12,701 per day.
Test positivity (using PCR tests) = 31.9%.
Seven day average = 32.9%.
#COVID19SL
#COVID19LK
#lka
6 Dec in Sri Lanka:
🧪13,831 COVID PCR done, 649 new cases detected.
Seven day average of PCR tests = 12,740 per day
Test positivity = 4.7%.
Seven day average = 4.9%.
#COVID19SL
#COVID19LK
#lka
Our daily update for 25 Jun 2021 in Sri Lanka. 1,876 new cases reported, 48 deaths occurred on 24 Jun, and 14,110 PCR tests done.
#COVID19SL
#COVID19LK
#lka
Our latest
#SLOTS
MRP estimates of Presidential Election voting intent for August 2023 show little change, with AKD (38%) and Sajith P (35%) still leading, while Pres. Ranil W draws support of one in five likely voters. *MOE=1-3%
IHP's updated SLOTS MRP model estimates the NPP/JVP held a 12% lead in GE voting intent amongst all adults in Dec '23
NPP/JVP 39% (-1 from Nov)
SJB 27% (+1)
SLPP 10% (+1)
UNP 6% (=)
ITAK 3% (-1), SLMC 3% (=), CWC (=), Others (=)
Interestingly, none of the respondents mentioned the Presidential system, constitution, or democracy as top concerns. Sri Lankans seem more concerned with economic realities than constitutional reforms.
#PresidentialElection
#SriLanka
#PublicOpinion
3/5
Our daily update for 17 Dec 2021 in Sri Lanka. 715 new cases reported, 22 deaths occurred on 16 Dec and 7,027 PCR tests and 3,706 Rapid Antigen Tests done.
#COVID19SL
#COVID19LK
#lka
Our latest
#SLOTS
MRP estimates of Presidential Election voting intent for March 2023 shows AKD leading at 48% followed by Sajith P (37%), Ranil W (11%) and a generic SLPP candidate (4%). *MOE=1-5%
IHP's updated SLOTS MRP model* estimates the NPP/JVP held a 10% lead in GE voting intent amongst all adults in Jan '24:
NPP/JVP 40%(-1)
SJB 30%(+2)
SLPP 8%(=)
UNP 6%(-1)
ITAK 4%(=), SLMC 2%(=), Others(=)
*MRP model version 01/24,02/24 provisional estimates
22 Aug in Sri Lanka
14,716 PCR tests done. 4,304 new cases detected.
Seven day average of PCR tests = 18,700 per day.
Test positivity (using PCR tests) = 29.2%.
Seven day average = 23.1%.
#COVID19SL
#COVID19LK
#lka
28 Apr in Sri Lanka.
23,730 PCR tests done. 1466 new cases detected.
Seven day average of PCR tests = 15,488 per day.
Test positivity = 6.2%.
Seven day average = 6.4%.
#COVID19SL
#COVID19LK
#lka
Pres.Wickremesinghe
@RW_UNP
remained less unpopular (-48) than his predecessor fmr Pres.
@Gotabaya
(-72) in Dec '22 but his initial boost on taking office is waning. Public remain unhappy with all party leaders but
@anuradisanayake
(-31) less unpopular than
@sajithpremadasa
(-38)
29 Jul in Sri Lanka
12,578 PCR tests done. 2,370 new cases detected.
Seven day average of PCR tests = 12,105 per day.
Test positivity (using PCR tests) = 18.8%.
Seven day average = 15.2%.
#COVID19SL
#COVID19LK
#lka
15 Jun in Sri Lanka.
18,257 PCR tests done. 2,334 new cases detected.
Seven day average of PCR tests = 18,203 per day.
Test positivity = 12.8%.
Seven day average = 13.8%.
#COVID19SL
#COVID19LK
#lka