This is Mary writing for Herb. Surgery went well! He’s in the ICU. He wants everyone to know his sense of humor was the first thing to return! Thanks for all the prayers and good thoughts. He’ll be posting when he’s out of the ICU and off pain meds.❤️
From a friend: “I’m thinking Tesla may be the domino the triggers the whole thing to go down this time. It just captures the complete madness of this whole cycle in one company/one stock. Would be fitting if that’s what does it.” Makes as much sense as anything else I’ve heard.
Some exciting personal news: At the end of May I’ll be leaving Pacific Square Research to start a new venture in activist short selling. Stay tuned for details!
Readership of our story: 2mln pageviews & counting.
“It’s possible that Alito has won the argument w/ the audience he cares the most about. But it seems equally plausible that he drew even more attention to the very story he was trying to knock down.”
Abolishing quarterly reporting is a ridiculous idea. It leads to less transparency. It’s one thing to stop playing the quarterly meet/beat game; it’s another to give investors less to work with. I’m biting my tongue to avoid saying more.
Stop with the short-sellers already... That's ALWAYS the lazy and often wrong argument. 3 things: (1) the bank's risk management (2) the CRO's departure and (3) guys in your own backyard telling THEIR founders to take the $$ and run. Not much more complicated than that.
People forget - companies don’t have to hold quarterly conference calls. Or offer quarterly guidance. All they have to do is file their quarterly numbers with the SEC. That’s it. The rest is up to them, win, lose or draw.
1/ First let me say, AI is very real. But as I've been saying for seemingly forever, it didn't just arrive w/ChatGPT. The attached is proof... cover date, November 30, 1998. Oh, and I checked, it's not fake. And here's the story that accompanied it. (For punchline see next tweet)
These wonderfully talented women sewed together and hand made the aortic valve that is beating inside my chest. A thrill to meet them at the
@EdwardsLifesci
#PatientExperience
The beauty of almost dying is that it reminds you of what it’s like to be alive. There is more to life than stocks. Headed out… think I’ll walk 5 miles today. Have a great day, everybody.
“But this time the black swan event is the smallest part of the story. It’s the pin that pricked the balloon....everyone knew.” A friend just wrote this and sent it to a few folks. It is one of the explanations, period.
Re the government's allegations that $NKLA's Milton “lied about nearly every aspect of his business” to lure investors: After spending the past 2 months digging through enough Hypothetical Gibberish™ to last a lifetime…I can say with great certainty: He ain’t the only one!
Walked into a restaurant last night in San Diego to pick up some food. Dutifully wearing an N95, which I switched to as cases soared & the new variant emerged. Place was packed. Bar slammed. Not a mask in sight, except mine and the servers. Surreal. Still trying to process it.
Really well done by my pal, the brilliant and highly perceptive
@adamlashinsky
, who knows a thing or 2 about Steve Jobs and Silicon Valley // Elon Musk is no Steve Jobs
1/ If you have time for only one interview to listen to, and you are skpetically inclined – or NOT but want to be aware of the traps – I cannot recommend any more highly this interview of VC
@wolfejosh
by
@muddywatersre
on
@zer0estv
.
We’re all winging it. Some people THINK they know what they’re doing and have no clue why they stumble when they do. The rest of us, when we stumble, know exactly why. Because … we’re all winging it. Life is a journey. Onward.
Apple raising AppleTV+ price 40% a month to $6.99 reminded me that outside of Ted Lasso and maybe 1 or 2 other things, now/then, I have no idea why I pay for it every month. Solution: Cancel, and renew when something I want to see is back on.
Q for traders: A friend is long $SBNY put options that expire Fri and major brokerages and the OCC are restricting transfer and apparently not permitting cash settlement. That means everybody long SBNY puts will lose principle when should be making money. Anybody else? Thoughts?
Finally got around to
@JohnCarreyrou
’s excellent “Bad Blood.” Should be on the reading list for every private AND public investor and any student of financial fraud.
I second
@WallStCynic
that it ranks up there with
@FrankPartnoy
’s “The Match King” as the best book on fraud.
Jeff Vinik on reopening his fund on
@SquawkCNBC
just now (summarized): The market is so correlated to itself via passive investing that it is creating inefficiencies, which in turn are creating opportunities for active investors.
Some personal news: A funny thing happened on the way to starting a new venture in activist short selling…
Something else came along.
Cc
@enriqueabeyta
@WhitneyTilson
@Hedge_FundGirl
& the ever elusive Gabe Marshank
It is simply astounding that this is STILL an issue. I can’t even believe that there is any debate about this. It is…Just. So. Obvous.
cc
@retheauditors
SEC Chair: Chinese Firms Need to Be Audited- Gensler is the new Sherriff in town and it looks like he is ready to delist and deregister chinese companies that don’t submit themselves to western audits of their financials. 1/2
Good Morning Everyone! Remember, there are 3 certainties in life:
- Death
- Taxes
- The FED raising rates today and not a single person on this planet knowing whether it’s too much or not enough
I’ve never paid attention to the CEO of $QS in the past, so don’t have a baseline. My only question after watching this interview by
@jimcramer
- does he always stammer like that? Seemed nervous. BTW, claiming “we’re always transparent” suggests you usually aren’t. Crisis PR 101.
One friend just mused Musk knows this thing is headed off a cliff and is pleading to be thrown out because he knows it is headed for a cliff. I would add - and if he is thrown out he will blame further issues on the fact that he was thrown out.
Forget the mere 8 patients… the thing that caught my attention was the CEO on
@cnbc
first thing yesterday to hype it. I mean, hyping Phase 1…who does that? Oh, yeah, companies that need $$ and follow on with an offering.
Probes Reporter, Now Disclosure Insight @DIreports
Just remember - when a company sells its shares to the PUBLIC, it opens the door to PUBLIC scrutiny of its financials, exec statements, behavior, etc. Comes with the territory. Don’t like it, don’t go public or go private. Bulls AND bears create healthy markets. Over/out.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: It’ll be something out of left field that gets this market. Too many smart people who are too smart for their own good - all gaming the game and each other – and all thinking they’re so smart they won’t be left holding the bag.
1/Surprised cruise ship stocks have held up as well as they have. If you go to any of the passenger forums you’ll see chaos, as ships are forced to alter CURRENT itineraries, rejuggle future - almost on the fly. Lots of reimbursements, future credits, etc. All=lost $$, IMHO.
Concerns of 'Delusion' – Are Private Company Valuations the Canaries of the Stock Market? And, Hubris Meets Money.
My latest … (includes candor from VC
@fredwilson
’s blog and
@Lux_Capital
’s Q3 letter, h/t
@wolfejosh
)
Every bone in my body wants to say that $GME was a bell-ringer for this market, but every bone in my body also knows that there is no bell. Better to follow the Rubik’s Cube of crumbs dropped every Saturday by
@hmeisler
and try to solve it.
Great line by
@helaineolen
: “Crypto hits that American sweet spot, where cynicism meets utter naivete, and where everyone thinks the sucker at the table is someone else.”
That SBF would even do this interview shows how delusional and tone deaf he is... and much how he has talked himself into thinking he did nothing wrong, and if he doesn't hide it'll all work itself out. I can't believe a crisis PR person or his lawyers encouraged him to do this.
Watching everything become an NFT reminds me of every company suddenly becoming a dotcom. Yeah, I know this time and NFTs are different, but just sayin’…
Just a reminder, if you were ever told you have a murmur "but it's no big deal," get a second/third opinion. No matter what anybody says, it should be monitored, preferably by a cardiologist. An echo takes an hour/is painless. Untreated can = heart failure, etc.
The part of the Theranos story that I had not realized until reading the book was how long this had been going on. And the number of people going WAY back who saw it and tried to blow the whistle, only to be ignored, threatened or fired. Stunning.
Interesting and if true, nuts: State Street, administrator for $KRE, has marked $SBNY to 0. (See below.) Yet I'm hearing some brokers are still carrying it at 70... which in effect screws the avg put investor w/options expiring today. Anybody else hearing anything diff?
Earlier, my old friend/foe
@CGasparino
reminded folks that short-sellers help ferret out fraud. I’d add: They also help keep the market from fallling in a vacuum - something that often gets lost in the mix - part of that buyers/sellers thing that helps make and keep orderly mkts.
This just in…and interesting... Schwab starting to charge for OTC trades… and I wonder if it has to do with the pushback on pay for order flow… cc
@JoeSaluzzi
Culture of not wanting to hear bad news. Great piece. (And I’m telling ya - GE ain’t the only one...by a long shot. Bull market has papered over a bunch of sins... creates a false sense of invincibility.)
Capital Allocation, Silicon Valley Style. Myriad reasons for $META's 74% Faceplant, but consider the abuse of the shareholder for capital allocation gone haywire. 2017 was apparently the right time to initiate repos. EVERY share bought, by the firm, or anybody, is underwater. 1/
I’ve seen some crazy sh*t in my day, but this $TSLA stuff is off the charts. Just for fun I pulled the Hostile React-O-Meter® off the shelf and out of retirement to get a reading. Darn thing nearly broke. Not sure I’ve ever seen it spin quite like that. Outta Control, I tell ya!
This is a stunning statistic, via
@KailashConcepts
@KcrEquity
: "Over 33%, or ~1,000 of America’s largest listed companies, lose money or cannot afford to pay their interest expense. Let that sink in." Or put another way...
I cannot believe the market is reacting to Fed news. It’s not like this is news, or unexpected. Imagine if something REALLY unexpected happened! (Honestly, I think this reflects just how little conviction there is in this market.)
Or … this just means BEING LONG didn’t work. "In the red” for longs means "in the green" for shorts. As of today, taking the other side of the bubble-trade = making $$ or buffering the blow. Folks, this reminder: “Short” is not a dirty word. As a strategy it exists for a reason.
In 1997, the last time Warren Buffett was considered washed up – back when tech stocks were flying – he injected a dose of reality and bought Dairy Queen. This chart tells the rest of the story (and who is/was washed up)...
Love how Buffett calls out companies that call themselves "tech" companies when they're really little more than an insurance co, or something else. (Like, I guess, a car company.)
I climbed out of self-imposed exile after
@ScottWapnerCNBC
asked me to join him today on
@HalftimeReport
. The Twitter convo post-show is split between that was great and “you’re a know-nothing, brain dead joker.” Which means, it stirred the pot, got people to think. Kudos, Scott.
Honestly, the market’s reaction to this inflation borders on the absurd. I mean - it was merely confirming what we all have seen with our own eyes, and doesn’t take into account promotions, etc, going forward. Tells you more about the lack of conviction than anything else.
Just shoehorned in to Fraudfest2020 - 530 ET Wed - I’ll be interviewing
@FD
AKA Dan McCrum of the
@FinancialTimes
, who started raising questions about Wirecard In April 27, 2015 – FIVE years ago - with his “House of Wirecard” series. $WDI cc
@WallStCynic
As I recall, this is the same
@JonathanWeil
, then a reporter at the Texas outpost of the WSJ, who raised red flags about Enron before anybody cared, too.
SVB is one of the banks we flagged in November for a story about lenders with large unrealized bond losses, which they were able to exclude from their earnings and shareholder equity thanks to friendly accounting rules. $SIVB
Investing vet Art Cashin on
@PowerLunch
right now comparing AMC with Iomega. He has a deeper sense of history than most. “Somewhere the apple is going to fall on Newton’s head here, and things will change... Everytime they tell you this time is different, it’s not different."
From a friend with whom I disagree about much, but agree on this: “Still feels to me like nobody has been right about anything, yet there are many that remain confident in their ability to ascertain what comes next!"
I come back to one thing on FTX, it's the irony of the number of so-many supposedly smart who got snared. It's just remarkable. That story within the story is what keeps tugging at me. And, again, would love to hear from those who said, "Thanks, but no thanks."
John, I don’t think anybody would believe me if I told them that back in the early 1990s I used to refer to you as one of my column’s “resident bulls…”
And then… we started getting charts like this! 😱🤣
I'm the first to say that I don't know much about anything, and maybe I am prone to oversimplifying things... but the entire market hanging by the thread of a single stock would not appear to be healthy. Then again, I've been wrong before. 🤷♂️