Director, Global South Program
@QuincyInst
, adjunct faculty
@GWU
. sarangATquincyinstDOTorg
Global South, Asia, Restraint, Climate.
RTs not endorsements
My latest w
@ForeignPolicy
- on Southeast Asia's entry into BRICS.
Thailand & Malaysia's application is good for the global order. It highlights Global South's systemic tendencies of "hedge-mony" rather than hegemony and is a message to the great powers.
How is the Global South outside MENA reacting to the developments in Israel/Gaza?
A thread capturing reactions from Brazil, Mexico, Nigeria, S Africa, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam, and Malaysia (selection somewhat arbitrary)
In backdrop of ASEAN meeting in Cambodia, most of SE Asia is very worried by spike in US-China tensions.
Most have explicitly affirmed their commitment to One-China in their statements on the crisis.
What do the reactions imply for US policy?
<1/16>
"โThe more I thought, the more I was horrifiedโ Miller writes in (his just-released memoir) โSoldier Secretary." โWe invaded a sovereign nation, killed and maimed a lot of Iraqis, and lost some of the greatest American patriots...all for a goddamned lie.โ"
โChina was growing at 8% a year to maintain growth, now close to 2% a year,โ Biden said, "Thatโs not good because when bad folks have problems, they do bad things.โ via
@bpolitics
Practically all key Singaporeans I spoke to during my recent trip there opposed and were mystified by Pelosi's visit. Why? And why now?
This included even those voices normally distrustful of Chinese behavior and intent.
"โ(The Chinese) never, ever dictate" He said that American officials often come with a list of onerous conditions before an investment can be approved. โI told Washington about this: โThe way you deal with us, forget it,"
Bottom line: Actions such as the Pelosi visit may feel good in Washington, but will not help the US retain its influence in SE Asia. In fact they serve to endanger it.
Arguing that Russian demands for a sphere of influence (assuming for a moment that these indeed are the demands) are illegitimate - while pursuing US primacy (which is nothing but an extreme sphere of influence that extends to the entire world order) - is seriously problematic.
Biden just said he "seeks" competition with China. I find the phrasing strange.
There might (will) inevitably be some competition due to the nature of international politics. But to "seek" it implies trying hard to create/magnify it in places where it may otherwise be minimal.
South Africa calls for "immediate cessation of violence, restraint & peace...The new conflagration has arisen from...illegal occupation of Palestine land, desecration of AlAqsa mosque & Christian holy sites and ongoing oppression of the Palestinian people"
South Africa expresses its grave concern over recent devastating escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. South Africa calls for the immediate cessation of violence, restraint, and peace between Israel and Palestine.
Upshot: Some clear differences here.
India, Singapore, Kenya invoke terrorism while Malaysia, B'desh, Indonesia, and SouthAfrica speak of Israel and root causes. Brazil, Mexico, Vietnam focus on restraint, 2-state solution & intern law. Nigeria calls for a de-escalation.
SE Asia will be receptive to arguments of destabilization or sovereignty violations, not to invocations of grand ideological battles or (non-existent) abstractions such as "liberal international order." It will also not join blocs or take sides.
If we could think of a crude spectrum, India and Kenya seem to be the most sympathetic (of these 11) to the Israeli perspective, Singapore to a degree. Nigeria, Brazil, Mexico, Vietnam somewhere in the middle. SAfrica, Malaysia, Indonesia & B'desh are most critical of Israel.
These statements, on their surface, do not take a side between the US and China, as has been SE Asia's approach all along.
But do I see a very subtle nod in the statements to China's core argument - violation of One-China?
Indonesia:
"โcalls on all parties to refrain from provocative actions"...the world was โin dire need of wisdom and responsibility from all leaders to ensure that peace and stability are maintainedโ adding that it continued to โrespect the OneChina policyโ"
Today, as
@Quincyinst
launches its Global South program, I suggest a framework for analyzing the Global South in
@ForeignAffairs
. As unipolarity recedes, the Global South is coming alive again - not as an organized grouping so much as a "geopolitical fact"
Even as the US' core argument - Pelosi's visit as aiding the the battle to safeguard Taiwan's security and democracy and combat the threat of (Chinese) autocracy - finds no resonance in these statements.
Vietnam:
โVietnam persists in implementing the โOne Chinaโ principle & hopes relevant parties exercise restraint, refrain from escalating the situation in the Taiwan Strait & actively contribute to maintenance of peace & stability...of the region & world"
"during the meeting, Marsudi "conveyed Indonesia's consistent position towards Palestine that Indonesia will continue, with the Palestinian people, to fight for justice and independence.""
"But defence analysts said that South Koreaโs military build-up was driven as much by fear of American abandonment and suspicion over the long-term intentions of Japan as by any desire to join Washingtonโs efforts to confront Chinese aggression."
Brazil "condemns the series of bombings and ground attacks carried out today in Israel from the Gaza Strip (and) expresses condolences to the families of the victims and expresses its solidarity with the people of Israel"
If the destabilization and/or violation of sovereignty is seen to come proactively from Washington (as in this case), it will not go down well. Ditto if Beijing is seen as the cause.
Malaysia: "The root cause must be acknowledged. The Palestinians have been subjected to the prolonged illegal occupation, blockade and sufferings, the desecration of Al-Aqsa, as well as the politics of dispossession at the hands of Israel as the occupier."
Singapore:
"Stable US-China relations are vital for regional peace and prosperity. Singapore hopes that the US and China can work out a modus vivendi, exercise self-restraint and refrain from actions that will further escalate tensions."
Thailand:
""Thailand stands by the 'One China' policy. We do not wish to see any actions that would aggravate tensions and undermine peace and stability in the region...""
Next to "One China," the most common phrase in the statements was "stability" or "peace & stability" as also "restraint" or "self-restraint." "Prosperity" was also mentioned.
Brazil: "...there is no justification for resorting to violence, especially against civilians, the Brazilian Government urges all parties to exercise maximum restraint in order to avoid escalating the situation"
PPS: ASEAN FM's joint statement on "cross strait development" just out. One-China is reaffirmed. "Peace," "stability," "maximum restraint" called for. And, as
@Sharon_Seah
notes, the Taiwan Strait is referred as "the area adjacent with the ASEAN region"
UNGA adopts resolution demanding "immediate humanitarian ceasefire" by an overwhelming 153-10, with 23 abstentions.
How did the Global South's votes today compare with the Oct 27 resolution calling for a "humanitarian truce," also adopted.
Important topic, but this reportage is way too one-sided. The dynamic cannot be just one side acting as the moral arbiter - telling the other what to do and then penalizing it for not responding.
Indonesia: "root of the conflict, namely the occupation of the Palestinian territories by Israel must be resolved in accordance with the parameters agreed upon by the UN."
The root of the conflict, namely the occupation of the Palestinian territories by Israel, must be resolved, in accordance with the parameters agreed upon by the UN.
Brazil "also reaffirms that the mere management of the conflict does not constitute a viable alternative for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian issue, and the resumption of peace negotiations is urgent"
Thailand (contd.)
"...We hope that all parties concerned exercise utmost restraint, abide by international law and principles of respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, and resolve their differences through peaceful means""
PS: The statement from Philippines, the US' closest ally in SE Asia, is at some variance with the rest. Manila's orientation in the post-Duterte era will need careful watching.
Malaysia: "There should be no...flagrant hypocrisy in dealing with any regime that practices apartheid & blatantly violates...international law. Palestinians have the legal right to live...within intrn recognised borders based on pre-1967 borders w/ East Jerusalem as its capital"
Malaysia (contd.)
"...โWe put a lot of value to both the US & China when it comes to trade & technology in the region. So we want to be friends with both China & the US""
President Lula also expressed his "rejection of terrorism in any of its forms" and called for a two-state solution. Brazil, as UNSC president for October, has called an emergency session of the Council.
Fiquei chocado com os ataques terroristas realizados hoje contra civis em Israel, que causaram numerosas vรญtimas. Ao expressar minhas condolรชncias aos familiares das vรญtimas, reafirmo meu repรบdio ao terrorismo em qualquer de suas formas.
O Brasil nรฃo pouparรก esforรงos para
The severe downplaying of 2003 and shocked dismissals of any comparisons whatsoever to the illegal invasion of Ukraine harm the US national interest.
Had there been accountability for 2003, we might see a lot more support in the Global South for the tough stance against Russia.
When in Washington, I was struck by the way my interlocutors were dismissing the 2003 invasion of Iraq as a regrettable event which didnโt deserve any particular comment. It was a major blunder and a horrible crime hundreds of thousands of civilians paid of their life.
If you haven't read this book by celebrated SouthAsian writer
@GhoshAmitav
it's still not too late. Perhaps the most articulate meditation on our climate-wracked future from the Global South. Cyclone Tauktae reminds us that a complex emergency in SouthAsia is just one event away
I made the point that the Liberal International Order was a bit like that quip about the Holy Roman Empire - neither Liberal, nor International, nor an Order
Bangladesh: "supports a two-state solution, Palestine and Israel, living side by side as independent states free of occupation following UN Resolutions No. 242 and 338"
What if Biden had said something like - given the enormous common challenges, we seek cooperation w/ China to the maximum extent possible. Though there will also be competition and we will always safeguard American interests.
The
#UnitedStates
would not be the United States without its diversity argues
@MaxBoot
. It would be but a pale shadow of itself. Also, this diversity is irreversible at this point.
Honored and delighted to begin a new innings as Director of Studies at
@QuincyInst
!
Look forward to working with an incredibly passionate and gifted team and help take our mission of military Restraint and renewed diplomacy to new heights!
Mexico: "essential to resume the process of direct and good faith negotiations between both parties...within the framework of the two-state solution...within mutually agreed upon and internationally recognized secure borders in accordance with (United Nations resolutions)"
Ukraine/Taiwan show that the Global South does not want to pick sides or return to a cold war. A new nonalignment is taking shape. How is it different from the old? Why are US strategies boomeranging? How could it correct course?
My latest w/
@QuincyInst
I write for
@thenation
on how US habits of primacy contribute to the climate crisis -
"through three principal axes: the imbalanced US-China dynamic, a dismissive attitude toward the Global South, and a schizophrenic framing of the climate challenge."
"โOur fear is that weโll pay a heavy price in the global south because of this conflict" -
@gideonrachman
quotes a senior EU official.
The EU (& the US) should indeed be worried.
I write for
@spectator
: Lula's visit to Washington showcased improved US-Brazilian ties. But Brazil is also a core member of the Global South. The US fails to grasp the region's complexity & ideological diversity, and may be setting itself up for failure.
Mexico "condemns the attacks suffered by the people of Israel (and) calls for an end to this inappropriate violence...to avoid an escalation that (will cause) greater...suffering to the civilian population"
La
@SRE_mx
condena los ataques sufridos por el pueblo de Israel con la lamentable pรฉrdida de vidas humanas. Mรฉxico envรญa sus condolencias a los familiares de las vรญctimas.
De la misma manera, hace un llamado al cese de esta violencia inconducente, a fin de evitar una escalada
Bangladesh: "denounces the ongoing armed conflict between Israel and Palestine and deplores the resultant loss of innocent civilian lives (and) calls for immediate ceasefire"
Nigeria: "deeply concerned" at the "outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Hamas" "calls for de-escalation and ceasefire" and "peaceful resolution of the conflict through dialogue"
"'Also, the darker your skin the worse and longer the wait"...Black(s) & Asians were beaten and sent to the back of the queues. At this point, people were splayed on the ground with hypothermia...But that was just us... Ukrainians got through in minutes""
Vietnam calls on "relevant parties" to "soon resume negotiations to resolve disagreements through peaceful means, on the basis of international law and the relevant resolutionsย of the UN Security Council"
Pelosi should not go - now, or later. The visit won't make Taiwan more safe, quite the contrary. It won't save the Uighurs. It will only strengthen US and Chinese hawks. Indeed it has begun to, already.
"Civil order is breaking down in Gaza as the humanitarian situation deteriorates, UN officials warn. โThe streets feel wild, particularly after dark-some aid convoys are being looted and UN vehicles stoned. Society is on the brink of full-blown collapse"
The US dropped 270 million cluster bombs on Laos.
"Every eight minutes, 24 hours a day, for nine years from 1964 until 1973, a planeload of cluster bombs was dropped on Laos by American B-52s."
50 years later, civilians (and children) are still being blown up by the bombs.
"Myanmar is the only ASEAN nation to support Russiaโs action, saying that it was โjustified and showed its status as a powerful country for the balance of power and world peace.โ"
Indonesia is deeply concerned with the escalation of conflict between Palestine and Israel.
Indonesia urges the immediate end of violence to avoid further human casualties.
I analyze BRICS' utility for Global South in
@thenation
:
"Some dismiss (BRICS') relevance, even calling for its dissolution. Others take a romantic view of...a revival of the days of Southern solidarity. Neither is an accurate picture"
@KatrinaNation
Singapore: "strongly condemns the rocket and terror attacks from Gaza on Israel, which have resulted in deaths and injuries of many innocent civilians"
Indonesia and Malaysia are right to be seriously concerned.
They understand well what AUKUS is - an element of a containment strategy that accelerates Asia's dangerous security competition with potential for destabilizing their region.
"Why is there one principle for Croatian Serbs & another for Yugoslav Croats? One standard for Kosovar Albanians & another for (its) Serbs? One rule for Bosnian Serbs & another for Bosnian Muslims? When rules are used so cynically, realpolitik will prevail"
Yellen will have to square this with Biden's statement that he will not let China get wealthier than the US under his watch.
If achieved, this implies Chinese citizens living at no more than 1/4 of US living standards "forever" (as Biden presumably wants it beyond his term).
Yellen: โItโs important for us to explain why weโre doing things...that itโs not an attempt to completely paralyze Chinaโs economy and stop its development.โ Beijing is unlikely to be convinced.
An Indian liberal's pitch - from
@sagarikaghose
.
#India
did have a liberal party, the Swatantra Party, in the 1960s. It backed a smaller government but also feudal interests. Its disappearance was a loss, regardless of the merit of all its positions.
Malaysia: is deeply concerned over the loss of so many lives due to the latest escalation of clashes in and around the Gaza Strip. At this critical time...parties must exercise utmost restraint and de-escalate"
In today's
@nytimes
I argue - even if BRICS didn't do much more than expand, it would challenge US primacy in significant ways by undercutting three tools Washington uses for global domination.
But this is not a bad thing - it's an opportunity for America!
"No president can carry out everything in his partyโs platform...But Biden wonโt even repeal policies imposed by the president he defeated & reinstate those of the president he served. And in the case of Iran, that unwillingness is both absurd & dangerous"
Pushing a huge, nuclear armed state towards collapse may be an irresponsible strategy, not just because of the humanitarian angle, but because it could lead to an even more extreme Moscow.
Shock therapy rarely works as planned.
"We are going to wage a total economic and financial war on Russia"ย declared Bruno Le Maire, French Minister of the Economy and Finance today.
"We will therefore cause the collapse of the Russian economy" untilย "Putin returns to better intentions in Ukraine"
It's only a matter of time. Climate change is likely to make cyclones more frequent in the Arabian Sea - historically they were much less common in this part of the Indian Ocean. Major urban conglomerations of Kochi, Goa, Mumbai, Karachi are among the exposed.
Malaysia has stepped in to officially back South Africa's case against Israel at ICJ. OIC has also backed South Africa. We can expect some more Global South states to extend their support as well.
PRESS RELEASE :ย MALAYSIA WELCOMES THE APPLICATION BY SOUTH AFRICA BEFORE THE INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE AGAINST ISRAEL ON ALLEGED GENOCIDE VIOLATIONS IN THE GAZA STRIP
"65% of Hindus believe that to be a true Indian you have to be Hindu & nearly 50% believe...you have to be...a Hindu & a Hindi speaker...(this) never went this far in modern Indian history. Will the Hindu-Hindi-Indian equation go...further?"
BRICS expansion w/ the adding of ARG, EGY, ETH, IRN, KSA, UAE is a big deal. 1st expansion since 2010, when SA joined.
It brings in wealthy/energy-rich Gulf states, enhances Africa/LatAm's representation & further showcases the members' very diverse domestic political systems
Ante las inaceptables violaciones del Derecho Internacional Humanitario en que ha incurrido Israel en la franja de Gaza, como Gobierno de Chile hemos resuelto llamar en consultas a Santiago al embajador de Chile en Israel, Jorge Carvajal.
Chile condena enรฉrgicamente y observa
One big reason - perhaps the biggest one - for India's non-military response was nuclear deterrence.
(Nevertheless India arguably had, at least until then, a policy of strategic restraint which has been analyzed a fair bit in academic literature.)
I respond, in this
@RStatecraft
article, to Daniel Deudney & John Ikenberry's recent criticism of
@QuincyInst
and the grand strategy of Restraint.
Restraint, not primacy, shows the way toward a safer and more prosperous planet.
Kenya: "condemns in the strongest terms possible the unprovoked attack by Hamas militants and speaks of "restraint" and "dialogue" and invokes "threats of terrorism"
He doesn't need to worry about deterrence: the US is doing plenty; sometimes provocatively. The challenge is not too little deterrence, but too little reassurance & not insulating areas of cooperation from disagreement. Macron could be a useful corrective in transatlantic policy.
I think a critical point about the Macron interview is the lack of any obvious deterrent signalling at all, not even economicโand whatโs more a suggestion that this is escalatory and even futile. The irony, in my view, is that this deeply short-sells French & European influence.
Biden's remarks are plain irresponsible and could end up being disastrous. What was the point of (courageously, I may add) starting a thaw with China, however limited? This sort of name-calling may satisfy China hawks at home, but has zero strategic payoffs.
I was delighted to be on the excellent
@asian_peace
podcast hosted by
@mahbubani_k
!
We discussed the Biden team's risk-prone policy toward China/Asia, and how ASEAN figures in all of this. We also talked Ukraine, "foreign policy for the middle class," and climate change.
For the Asian Peace Talks podcast,
@mahbubani_k
speaks with
@globalsarang
of
@QuincyInst
on US-China relations, the Ukraine War and Pelosiโs Taiwan visit, and how all this impacts ASEAN
Listen: