Founder of Potential Multibaggers & Best Anchor Stocks on Seeking Alpha.
Deep research, long-term investing (10yrs+). I help you stay calm when everyone panics
From Market Noise to Clarity
It could be an alternative name for From Growth To Value.๐
While many investors get lost in trends, I stay serene and strategic.
Most investors think you need to constantly monitor your stocks, jump on every trend, and predict the next big stock.
If someone would have said in Sept. 2021 that $FB would be down 50%, $NFLX 68% and $PYPL 70%, very few would have believed that.
Now that they are down so much, few believe they can go up again. It's a lack of imagination.
Much more is possible than you think, both up & down.
Why I never buy an
#IPO
$SNOW, $PLTR, $NCNO, $AMWL, $SUMO, $U, $GDRX etc.
A thread. ๐
I wait for at least 2 quarterly results, preferably more, but normally at least 8 or 9 months after the IPO. There are several reasons for that. (1/12) ๐
Cynicism is really bad for investing success.
$TSLA was 'just a car'
$AAPL was 'just a phone'
$FB was 'just a website'
$GOOGL was 'just an algorithm'
$NVDA was 'just a chip'
$SBUX was 'just coffee'
$MCD was 'just fast food'
...
Cynicism sounds smart but it costs you money
$CRWD down 7%. Because of the vaccin, there will be no crooks anymore. ๐ค๐
$DOCU down 13.5%. Because of the vaccin, people will all of a sudden crave for slow back-and-forth paper work. ๐ค๐
$ROKU down 7.8%. Because of the vaccin people become allergic to smart TVs. ๐ค๐๐
If you still don't understand the difference between $NVDA and all the rest, Jensen Huang explains it in less than 2 minutes.
"We observed that and realized that about a decade and a half ago."๐
I'm long $NVDA since $25 and today, it crossed $700. ๐๐๐
When it was at $400, I recommended it a few times to the Multis as a Best Buy Now and called it fairly valued for its growth.
But does $700 make sense or is it in clear bubble territory? ๐ซง
Let's have a look. ๐
1/6
When I picked $SHOP in May 2017, it had๐ 223% in 2 yrs. It's a 20 bagger since.
$TTD in May 2019 (split-adjusted), had ๐550% in <3 yrs. It's a 5 bagger+ since.
$SE: +319% in the 16 months before I picked it, it's a 5 bagger+ since.
Don't think you missed it. Think long-term
$SE
WHAT A QUARTER again! ๐ ๐ ๐
Revenue of $2.28B, up158.5% YoY, beating the consensus by 13%. ๐คฏ
It even starts beating on EPS now. ๐
Gross profit $930.9M, up 363.5% YoY
Sea is growing like a sub $100M small cap.
10 Growth Stocks that I think will outperform over the next decade:
๐ต $ADYEY
๐ถ $DDOG
๐ฅ๏ธ $CNSWF
๐ผ $PAYC
๐บ $TTD
๐ต๏ธโโ๏ธ $CRWD
๐ $NET
๐ญ $ASML
๐ $MELI
๐ป $NVDA
๐ฑ $TWLO
What are your 10 growth stocks for the next decade? ๐
Peter Lynch is an investing legend!
I think most investors have read "One Up On Wall Street."
But "Beating The Street," one of his other books, is also full of gems. In the book, he also shares his 25 rules for investing.
Here they are:
1. Investing is fun and exciting, but
Last week, Charlie Munger had his 98th birthday. He is, even more than Buffett, a hero.
On inflation, for example:
'Iโm optimistic about life. If I can be optimistic when Iโm nearly dead, surely the rest of you can handle a little inflation.'
$UPST
Great quarter again!
Revenue $228M, +250% YoY and beating the consensus $13.12M or 6.1%
EPS of $0.60 beating by $0.27; GAAP EPS of $0.30 beating by $0.06
Guidance Q4
Revenue of $255M to $265M vs consensus of $227.62M, almost +15% at the midpoint.
Shares - 17.8% ๐ค๐คท๐ป
How many times have you heard about $AMZN, $NFLX, $AAPL millionaires? You would expect them to be numerous, wouldn't you?
Most couldn't hold through the volatility.
$AMZN: -90% (dotcom)
$NFLX: -75% (Quikster debacle, 2011)
$AAPL: -52% in 1 day (2000, earnings miss)
Take 5 investors. They invest for 20 years each, $2,000 every year, so in total $40,000. We take 5 cases:
1. perfect market timing, investing the $2,000 exactly at the 52-week low.
2. lump-sum investing, investing the money when you get it.
1/10 ๐
At this moment, $PINS is a value stock. This is its forward PE. ๐๐คฏ
As you can see, it's lower than that of $PEP and $KO.
The difference? PEP&KO are expected to grow revenue by about 5% in the next 3 yrs, PINS by about 25% to 30% per year.
#fromgrowthtovalue
๐
I almost never share sth from my private life but now I will.
Someone very dear to my wife got a very bad diagnosis and may not survive.
Tomorrow morning (9 am CET) there is an all-or-nothing (experimental) surgery.
Could you please send your positive energy/prayers?
๐
Bill Ackman is a legendary investor.
In this video, he shows you everything you need to know about finance and investing in just 45 minutes.
Always learn from the best.
โNobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market.
Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on whatโs actually happening to the companies in which youโve invested.โ
Peter Lynch
$LVGO is a perfect example of a win for everybody:
* Patients become healthier.
* Patients get free testing strips, so cheaper for them.
* Less treatment, so cheaper for insurers
* Cheaper for the public health care costs.
* Great returns for its stockholders.
I think the whole
#RobinHood
debacle shows the bull case for $SQ.
If it builds out the trading capacities of
@CashApp
it could become the new, better version of
@RobinhoodApp
.
@Square
could use it as a lead magnet and make (more) money from the rest of its services.
$SE
FANTASTIC earnings results again!
Revenue $2.7B +125.0% YoY๐
Beats the consensus by $240M.๐คฏ
GAAP EPS of -$0.84 misses by $0.06 (nothing new here ๐
Shares +5.8% now.
10 years ago, $AAPL had a market cap of $330B, now $2.2T. If you would have said that at the time, you would have been the laughing stock of Wall Street.
Imagination combined with logic is a strong force.
Which $100B+ company has the potential to be a $2T company before 2035?
Pretty sure this basket of 10 'Covid stocks' will outperform the market over the next year, 3 years and 5 years. I'm definitely least confident about the first year.
@RemindMe_OfThis
1 year
$TDOC
$PINS
$PTON
$ROKU
$MELI
$SE
$FVRR
$TWLO
$DOCU
$SQ
This will blow your mind about market timing!
99% of what you hear about stocks is market timing: will the market go up or down? But that's noise. To demonstrate my point, here is a little story backed by evidence.
Imagine 5 investors. Each invests for two decades, allocating
$AMZN is up 7% in the after-hour market to $170.
Jeff Bezos said from the start that OCF (operational cash flow) was the best way to value the stock and yes, looking back, the stock price followed OCF.
That also means that the stock is worth $250 now. ๐
That's +47%
A lot of people want the next $NFLX, $TSLA or $AMZN but they don't look at how volatile these stocks were when they were younger.
I can guarantee that if you want the next huge winner, you will have to ride the stock down several times.
$AMZN could survive the dotcom crash by raising a ton of money just before the crash began.
$SE now raised a lot of money near the top of this crash.
Another parallel. Just saying๐
On this day 10 years ago, $AMZN was worth $80B.
If you would have predicted that it would have a market cap of $1.75T in 2021, you would have been the laughing stock of Wall Street.
The consensus was that it was 'ridiculously overvalued'.
1/2
My Multis know this already but I wanted to share this $SE news here too.
I got information again from my source that shared before that Spain and France would be the next countries where Shopee would be launched weeks before they were actually launched.
A thread ๐งต๐
1/9
$NVDA: a really good quarter again.
Revenue of $7.1B +50.1% YoY, beating by $290M or 4.25%
EPS of $1.17 beating by $0.09
GAAP EPS of $0.97 beats by $0.11.
Data Center $2.94B +55% YoY, Gaming $3.22B +42% YoY
Can I nominate Jensen Huang as a top 3 underrated CEO?
I just got a scoop from a secret source and it's ๐คฏ.
$SE is launching in Poland ๐ต๐ฑ now but the next countries could be Spain ๐ช๐ธ and France ๐ซ๐ท!๐คฏ
This company keeps amazing me with its boldness and execution!
Long since $54, long for a very long time to come!๐๐๐
What do you think is the most undervalued $10B+ company?
I'm not talking about the highest conviction, just what you think is most undervalued vs. the long-term story.
I'll start with mine: $TDOC
#GameStop
$GME 3 lessons:
1. Never short. Your upside max is only 100%, your downside is unlimited.
2. If
#wallstreetbets
is stock market manipulation, then the often ridiculous short reports of
@CitronResearch
& others are too.
3. Many big hedge funds are still very arrogant.
$SE
The stock price of Sea is up 145% over the last year but its P/S ratio has been stable around 20.
Before earnings, it goes up to 27-28, with earnings it drops to 20 again.
So buying Sea today is like buying it at $150 last year!
H/t
@IrnestKaplan
for pointing this out! ๐๐ป
$UPST Incredible quarter!
Revenue $194M +1,018% YoY ๐, beating by $36.2M beating the consensus by 22.8% ๐คฏ
Non-GAAP EPS, 0.62 beats by $0.37. GAAP EPS of $0.39 beats by $0.27
Loans: $2.80B, +1,605%
Conversion 24% vs. 9% in Q2 2020
Operating income: $36.3M vs -$11.4M in Q2 2020
Time in the market > timing the market.
If you can find a stock that grows by 12.2%/year, after 40 years, you have a 100 bagger. So from $10k to $1M
35 years? 14%
30 years? 16.6%
25 years? 20%
One such stock can change your life.
$SE the price is up, so many will call this good earnings and find reasons for that.
If the stock would have dropped, many would have called this bad earnings and find reasons for that.
This shows how ridiculous short-termism is. ๐
Tech is in such a bubble! Overvalued! Dotcom bubble 2, I tell you!
Just look at this chart and you see that US tech rises unsustainably!
What? It's not price? No, this is an earnings chart.
Around 2010 is the tipping point. SaaS started off then.
Don't panic, zoom out.
My new free article is out!
$SE has a competitive advantage vs. its competitors: Garena is an internal cash cow that can fuel the two other businesses inside of the company.
How Sea's Garena Fuels Shopee And SeaMoney
Why does the average investor underperform the market so much?
According to studies, it has to do with trading too much. The more trading, the higher the underperformance. See this Berkely study, for example:
Long ๐งตon long-term investing ๐
1/25
If you can name only 1 book that has influenced you the most in your investing style, which would it be?
For me, it's Common Stocks And Uncommon Profits by Philip Fisher.
Charlie Munger, one of the best investors ever:
"If you can't stomach 50% declines in your investment, you will get the mediocre returns you deserve."
Most investors ๐&๐
When their stocks drop 50%, most investors ๐ฑ & sell.
What do you think they will get? ๐ค
$TTD is down about 30% in the post-market hours. ๐ฑ๐๐ป3โฃ0โฃ
I think it still has multibagger potential for patient long-term investors.
But what does The Trade Desk do exactly? ๐งต๐
1/10
$FB
The data of 550 million people leaked on the internet, among which mine. ๐คฌ
The stock up 3.4%.๐ณ
Sold my shares years ago, still feels like the right decision. I don't care about the stock price of companies I'm not proud to be a part-owner.
Of course, to each his own! ๐คท๐ปโโ๏ธ
Yep! This is how it goes!
It's too late to buy $SE.
It's too late to buy $SQ.
It's too late to buy $CRWD.
It's too late to buy $NET
etc.
If you are a long-term investor, you should think about the long term, not about the next year or so.
Me in 2009: It's too late to buy $AMZN
Me in 2010: FINE! I'll buy it
Me in 2011: It's too late to buy $NFLX
Me in 2012: FINE! I'll buy it
Me in 2013: It's too late to buy $V
Me in 2014: FINE! I'll buy it
Me in 2017: It's too late to buy $SHOP
Me in 2018: FINE! I'll buy it
โYou should like risk because it pays off over time. But you should be paranoid of ruinous risk because it prevents you from taking future risks that will pay off over time.โ
Morgan Housel
The Psychology of Money
From the start, my profile has said that I invest for 10 years+
I will probably not need the money for 20 yrs.
Tell me why I would exactly be stressed by the YTD?๐ค
I just keep adding money every 2 weeks, like I have done for years.
The more stocks go down, the better for me.
For those who think stocks that drop substantially should be sold if you are a long-term investor.
In 2000, $AAPL's stock fell 51.9%... on a single day.
I often say "Everybody's a long-term investor until the stock price drops like a rock."
True investors can shine at that moment. Everybody can hold a stock when it only goes up.
The really good investors can hold it when it goes down.
The difference? Knowledge!
$SQ is a bank now. ๐๐๐
The difference with your grandma's bank?
Square's CAC (customer acquisition cost) is $5, that of traditional banks around $200.
Warren Buffett famously said:
"The stock market is a device which transfers money from the impatient to the patient.โ
I see a lot of impatient investors and few patient...
But that's probably exactly what this is about.
Livongo $LVGO has an agreement with Dexcom $DXCM. Livongo has CGM (=continuous glucose monitoring).
The biggest player in CGM, is Dexcom. Livongo gets Dexcom's data and adds it to its data pool to learn more for its nudges and insights, using AI.
#moat
#potentialmultibaggers
If you have a hard time holding $TDOC, just look at $SQ from September 2018 to March 2020, an 18-month period. This is just how it goes in investing.
A lot of people will tell you something has changed, they will find details to prove it, but it's just price action.
HODL ๐๐
There is no school where you can learn investing.
The money you lose starting out in the market is your tuition fee. Therefore, start small. I made huge mistakes when I started but with small amounts.
Just like for any other graduation you will have to study to do well.
10 reasons I'm still so excited about $TTD for the long term, a thread.
1. Jeff Green, founder and CEO of $TTD is one of the clearest speakers among all CEOs, with great insights and forecasts of where his industry is going. (1/10)
$TDOC
A video call with your doctor is the equivalent of the first mobile phones, which looked like a brick and that couldn't take pictures, let alone go online.
The real revolution will be in 24/7 connected healthcare That's why Teladoc's Livongo acquisition was so important.
Since its IPO, $TTD is a 20-bagger and since I picked it 4 years ago, it's a 3-bagger, despite being down ~45% from its highs right now. I think it still has multibagger potential for patient long-term investors.
But what does The Trade Desk do exactly? A ๐งต๐1/10
According to the Buffett Indicator (total market cap divided by the GDP) the market is significantly overvalued. But the Buffett Indicator may not work anymore today. 1/10
A thread to explain why...๐