Daniel Filan 🔎 @freed_dfilan Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

@aANJELLOH

@cindyne169

@Caballito_vc

@SevenBucksProd

@SpencerIgoMN

@CesarRo33740103

@PK_PKP_PPK

@nftpicker_net

@iamjamesjeffrey

@LithiumPowerLPI

@Schattenburg

@FJH27

@Baldernock

@yurinastation

@quickflat

@SelenaLaLeyenda

@Dr_wanjauFarmer

@sofiane_bkl

@CEInnovations

@Crypto4Billion

@WieldMichael

@riteshJais20443

@aljabr_kia

@WbrAssociation

@BlockFriendNFT

@bokeplokalmalam

@ValpacosJorge

@mawaldman

@useroneplays

@HarwantoHarry

@chelo_ariel97

@SASGYS

@PatrickHeinisc1

@kjc_9999

@Aycaderki1

@jitterypixels

Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

2 months

Common pattern: people in a hobby have an unassuming name for their thing. Is there a name for this? Examples: - Meditators don't meditate, they sit. - Computer programmers don't have computers, they have machines. - Camera hobbyists don't own lenses, they own glass. (1/2)

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

2 months

- People with tattoos don't have tattoos, they have ink. - MMO players don't have characters, they have toons. (2/2)

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

6 months

Is memory safety going to become "woke"? - computers telling you what you can and can't access - Biden likes it - 30% of respondents to the rust survey are trans

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

2 months

New busy beaver number!

BusyBeaver(5) is now known to be 47,176,870

The news these days feels apocalyptic to me—as if we’re living through, if not the last days of humanity, then surely the last days of liberal democracy on earth. All the more reason to…

scottaaronson.blog

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

6 months

@daniel_271828 wait this is real?

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

2 months

The rowing machine is criminally underrated. It's like the squat of cardio.

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

3 months

Beautiful X axis

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

4 months

@ciphergoth i guess the answer should be infinity?

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

3 months

People are giving OpenAI a lot of shit for this but if you read carefully, it's not OpenAI that's requiring the signature, it's the document itself - OpenAI probably tried to convince the document to change its mind but was obviously unable to.

Kelsey Piper

@KelseyTuoc

3 months

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

9 months

Bold timing for 80k to release this podcast episode

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

9 months

One big request I have for OpenAI people, including the board: please keep diaries! In the future you'll want to know what you knew and thought when, and if human historians are around 200 years from now, they'll want to know that too!

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

8 months

FYI: you can count up to 100 on your fingers like so: - right hand is ones - left hand is tens - thumbs are 5/50, fingers are 1/10. This is convenient enough that it's the way I count by default.

Chisanbop - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

2 months

I've been normie-pilled. The last three conspiracy theories that I put stock in were that COVID was a lab leak, Epstein didn't kill himself, and Boeing killed those whistleblowers. But looking into them myself made them all seem less likely (altho I can't rule the first 2 out)

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

2 months

@ByrneHobart I think there were walls before Lightcone took over?

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

5 months

doesn't want his alpha stolen

Catherine Rampell

@crampell

5 months

Why are all the books turned backwards? Is this a thing people do?

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

3 months

It's official

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

2 months

The philosophy of dimensional analysis seems underrated relative to its importance. Like, what on earth is a 'dimension'? How do we figure that out? Why can you multiply but not add them? Is it a priori or a posteriori? The more you think about it the stranger it seems.

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

4 months

Thought of a dunk that would be funny, but it would also be mean and kind of contrary to my values, so I'm exercising the virtue of silence. You're welcome.

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

2 months

Not loving Twitter's assessment of which replies I'm more or less interested in seeing

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

2 months

@ByrneHobart > Manifold is a startup that runs Manifund, a prediction market Well that's not true

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

9 months

AI doomers are the type of people who are so awful that they would probably oppose all sorts of good technologies. No I won't provide examples. No biotech, fusion power etc don't count as examples, they probably haven't heard of those. ^ this is not a good argument!

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

8 months

One thing I'd like to emphasize: I think this is the best debate I have seen in my life. Object level informative, and worth wondering how to emulate. I genuinely wish political debates had this format.

Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

8 months

Twitter thread of me watching the @Rootclaim vs @tgof137 covid origins debate

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

10 months

not loving the idea that the firing of Sam Altman is the work of "doomerism" / "safetyism" such that people like me are somehow responsible for it. especially when there is ~0 solid public info to go off.

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

1 year

blood donation is not meant to be free. it's meant to be effective at providing blood to people who need it. humans are meant to be free. to transact. in, among other things, blood.

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

6 months

"I would like a space for my memory to be safe" - what they mean is that they want you to be silenced

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

6 months

- literally has "safety" in the name

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

5 months

Holy shit you can just host a party by thinking of some people you like and inviting them to your house and it actually works and is fun!

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

4 months

The Cowen-Thiel convo begins with a butchering of both Calvinism and LessWrongism (Calvinists don't believe in the use of reason? LessWrongers don't claim to know things? Give me a break...) Not promising!

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

2 months

@ByrneHobart 2. "[EA, LW-ism] often see empowering the tech sector[...] as crucial to human survival in the far future" - some relevant context here is that Lighthaven people are super opposed to big AI companies doing AI development!

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

7 months

guys we could just run for city council and maybe win by default

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

7 months

People keep on putting out crazy numbers for losses to cybercrime like this. US GDP is approx $25 trillion. I think it's really unlikely that ~40% of US GDP is lost to cybercrime!

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

1 year

One problem with regulation is that I don't think anyone knows what companies can do to ensure that when they make super-smart AI, it doesn't cause this sort of catastrophe. So it's unclear what the government should mandate other than "stop".

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

9 months

Given that last time we heard that Sam was in negotiations with the board to return it wasn't true, why should we believe it this time?

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

6 months

@cremieuxrecueil I feel like there's probably a project in here of mapping out which journals have a high proportion of LLM-written papers, to make it legible to the rest of the world which bits of academia are more or less fake.

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

9 months

I would simply not say something I didn't believe because of pressure.

Jacques

@JacquesThibs

9 months

"OpenAI employees: did you sign the petition out of fear?"

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

5 months

Do you regularly read LessWrong? || If for the next 100 years you had the power to detonate a nuclear bomb on the moon, is there a >10% chance you would use this power?

No || No

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No || Yes

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Yes || No

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Yes || Yes

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

10 months

ok this apparently isn't very capitalist of me but I feel like the social value of ozempic is probably higher than the social value of facebook+instagram existing.

Derek Thompson

@DKThomp

10 months

I'm mildly obsessed with this Q: Why did most of Europe industry whiff on the tech revolution? Look at the largest US vs. EU companies by market cap. - America: computers, computers, computers, computers, computers, computers - Europe: ozempic, luxury bags and jewelry, lotions

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

6 months

@cremieuxrecueil oh man i've always wondered if anyone's studied middle responding tendency

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

1 year

@PradyuPrasad I'm on Tyler's side on this one. He indeed never missed a day of posting! But his days of posting started later than Alex's.

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

2 months

I feel like Paul Romer should be lauded for his take early in COVID that we should make tests super cheap and not bother to trace - IMO the discourse has forgotten how right he was.

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

9 months

I have literally signed up to have my head be frozen in a gamble to escape death.

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

11 months

I guess this is a matter of hourly income? As a PhD student I am for sure on team 10x cheaper, and intuitively shocked that others wouldn't be, but perhaps things will change in future.

Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

11 months

Would you rather flights were 10x faster (including time in the airport and on the tarmac) or 10x cheaper?

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

7 months

The font for "EA Global" is different than the font for "Bay Area (GCRs)" in a way that's distracting to me.

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

8 months

I am instinctively pro-tunnel. Let them dig.

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

4 months

Being unemployed sucks but at least it makes it easy to regularly exercise at the gym.

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

2 months

@ByrneHobart The two bits of the article that seem the most sketchy: 1. "A group with racist ties" is pretty strong for "a group that once held/hosted a couple of events that invited some racist people, as well as a ton of people with normal levels of racism"

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

4 months

"The reformation had to start from the outside, it couldn't start from within" - but it did start from within! Obviously it couldn't stay there, but Martin Luther was a monk and a priest!

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

9 months

Re: nonlinear drama, has anyone - read Ben's post, wrote down things that seemed bad on a piece of paper, and the evidence provided for that - then read Kat's post while looking at that piece of paper and checking off things that were disproven ? If so, what was the result?

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

9 months

If you walk around Berkeley on the day of the graduation ceremony wearing graduation attire, people will say "congratulations" to you. But anyone can buy it, you don't need to have actually graduated.

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

3 months

The Golden Gate Bridge is actually beautiful and majestic in real life. It's not just a funny meme.

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

3 months

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

11 months

Me @ manifest

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

7 months

Finished watching the debate! tl;dr in my sketchy Bayesian model, I get a 96% posterior probability of zoonosis, which is massively sensitive to the question "Would you expect the first superspreading event to be at the HSM even if the pandemic didn't originate there".

Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

8 months

Twitter thread of me watching the @Rootclaim vs @tgof137 covid origins debate

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

6 months

Correction: 30% of respondents to the rust survey are not trans

Shri Samson Wis/acc

@SSamson89

6 months

@RomanHauksson @freed_dfilan 🧐14% of the total identified as marginalized * 31.4% of the marginalized are trans = 4.4% of Rust respondents are trans.

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

11 months

~25% of people with an opinion would be willing to increase their expected lifespan by risking human extinction. Makes it plausible that some oppose AI pause for this reason.

Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

11 months

Suppose that slowing AGI development decreased the chance that humanity goes extinct by 1 percentage point, but also decreased the chance of you living for at least 1,000 years by 2 percentage points. Would you support slowing AGI development?

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

6 months

Is it just me or is the 80k podcast getting better? Went back to it and there are quite a few fun episodes. To some degree it's at the cost of the EA focus but it's at least interesting.

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

4 months

Am now at 50k downloads of AXRP! 🎉

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

7 months

is there a way for me to watch the anthropic super bowl ad online?

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

4 months

@adrusi "it's not normal to post about what topics are and aren't normal to post about. if you do you're either a high decoupler or an anti-intellectual. sorry but those are the only options"

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

3 months

Me, a raisin brain: "man, why am I enjoying these book reviews by random authors so much less than the blog running the book review contest, written by one of my favourite authors on the internet?"

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

5 months

pope francis ate the planet earth for his birthday. not assuaging my concerns about the jesuits...

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

9 months

Also what the fuck is even happening

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

3 months

when it's been nearly 3 weeks since the last axrp release

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

2 months

@norvid_studies I do think he's sort of overly swayed by things that bother him.

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

3 months

This is kind of unfair, and I guess I'm largely preaching to the choir, but I would simply not have cheated on my wife.

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

8 months

Twitter thread of me watching the @Rootclaim vs @tgof137 covid origins debate

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

4 months

TIL the word "Heroin" as in the drug is actually cognate to "heroine" the female hero.

Heroin - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

7 months

EA/LW terminology on the verge of acceptance that I really dislike: saying "X is counterfactual" to mean "X is factual and not present in counterfactual worlds". I get why people want a word for this but please pick another one!

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

5 months

Hot take: a good sunset is objectively about half as cool as a total solar eclipse.

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

9 months

Wikipedia has a different view of what's in the news currently

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

9 months

Are you a liberal? || Are you disturbed by the practice of medically unnecessary male circumcision of infants?

Yes || Yes

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Yes || No

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No || Yes

91

No || No

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

3 months

everyone in this room is looking at their screen

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

3 months

People be like "it's so crazy that you need a flowchart to explain how Mormons think the afterlife works, that's so complex" but if there were an afterlife it probably would be pretty complex.

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

9 months

I'm kinda surprised there doesn't seem to have been any OpenAI news since I went to sleep. I guess the people involved need their rest?

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

11 months

My guess is that a lot of the information in "Going Infinite" is just wrong, perhaps because the author took SBF and Nishad's word for things. Reasons I think this: 1. SBF has a reputation among people I know for dishonesty, but the book paints him as a truth-teller. (1/2)

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

4 months

I think Pascal's Wager is at the opposite end of the spectrum of philosophy of colour, in that it's incredibly substantive, raises a bunch of interesting philosophical questions, and doesn't have an obvious answer.

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

4 months

@moultano @diviacaroline Maybe development of vectors + vector calc would have made early EM faster? But we got Maxwell's equations without them somehow...

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

6 months

Is it just me or is it kinda sus that you have to scroll a bit to report a twitter account as spam, given that that's by far the main thing I want to report accounts for?

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

8 months

@RatOrthodox i'm not a fucking robot

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

4 months

@AaronBergman18 @StatisticUrban Isn't there a thing where "outdoor cats" makes you think of pet cats but most of the deaths are from feral cats?

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

1 year

Hello this is @daniel_filan but unlocked

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

6 months

@mealreplacer IDK if this exactly counts but it still makes me chuckle

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

1 year

As far as I can tell, continued development of more powerful AI risks catastrophe on the order of human extinction. In that context, a laissez-faire approach of suing for damages after the fact doesn't seem viable.

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

7 months

@Aella_Girl I think there are probably a few axes of "accepted" and this is just picking up one. Like, I think it would be hard to imagine someone smoking marijuana in a TV ad for cheerios or something, but it's not very taboo. Similarly for "being below median attractiveness".

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

4 months

It occurs to me that Esperanto music and contemporary Christian music both suffer from the problem that people make them because they kind of feel like they should, and people listen for reasons other than the music being good.

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

9 months

@ShakeelHashim Why? Like, Beff Jezos aims to influence policy by talking and making arguments and tweets. It seems to me that that speech rises and falls on its own merits. What thing of value did you gain by learning his identity?

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

7 months

GCRI did an anonymous survey of experts on the origins of COVID! Apparently most believe (as I do) that it was most likely a zoonotic spillover, but 1/5 thought an accident was more likely.

The Origin and Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Expert Survey | Global Catastrophic Risk...

gcrinstitute.org

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

4 months

Weird that no major religion regulates its adherents' soda consumption. Seems like low-hanging fruit as a way to induce communal sacrifice, make the adherents distinctive, and also make them healthier. Mormons could do this this year! Or Catholics could ban it Fridays!

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

10 months

I guess to be concrete: - I have no idea why Sam was fired. - Without more info, I don't have a solid take on whether it was good that he was fired. - I could imagine situations where Sam was cavalier about safety and lied to the board where it would seem good to fire him.

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

8 months

It's weird that Twitter has officially been called X for 5 months now but the natural thing to call it is still twitter

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

4 months

boy dinner

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

8 months

@Aella_Girl As a man the easiest thing to notice is that they are all literally leaning away from you and you are literally leaning away from them.

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

2 months

@ByrneHobart I guess I should say that the broad point, that people like Jonny Anomaly, Steve Hsu etc did attend and mingle and attract audiences etc, is true.

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

4 months

AI Impacts report on why environmentalism became partisan is now out!

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

9 months

Well this turned out to be a bad call

Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

9 months

Given that last time we heard that Sam was in negotiations with the board to return it wasn't true, why should we believe it this time?

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

4 months

In general it's disturbing how uninformed much intellectuals are when they analogize stuff to various parts of the Judeo-Christian world. I guess they accurately perceive that their audience is largely even less informed and are just impressed that you know fancy words.

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

9 months

@ctjlewis Firing a CEO doesn't make you a terrorist.

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

4 months

The views on metaphysics and epistemology expounded in the LessWrong sequences are not unique but rather have precedent in academic philosophy - people like Quine or Dennett. Also, they're great and underrated. This should give pause to LWer skeptics of academic philosophy.

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

9 months

New episode of The Filan Cabinet with Aaron Silverbook, where we talk about how mouth bacteria cause cavities, and a new product that might prevent them.

13 - Aaron Silverbook on anti-cavity bacteria

In this episode, I speak with Aaron Silverbook about the bacteria that cause cavities, and how different bacteria can prevent them: specifically, a type of b...

www.youtube.com

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Daniel Filan 🔎

@freed_dfilan

3 months

I wrote an outline of a post about why I like "AI doom liability". I don't think fleshing it out would add much value, but maybe I'm just being lazy. Anyone want to read and give feedback? Explanation of "AI doom liability" in next tweets.

Why I like AI doom liability - Pastebin.com

Pastebin.com is the number one paste tool since 2002. Pastebin is a website where you can store text online for a set period of time.

pastebin.com

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