M. Taylor Fravel @fravel Twitter profile

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M. Taylor Fravel

@fravel

5 years

Launch day! My new book on China's military strategy, Active Defense, is now available: Read more about the book here:

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M. Taylor Fravel

@fravel

2 years

Comparing China’s 1995/1996 live fire exercises during the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis (left) and with those just announced for August 2022 (right). Sources: and

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@fravel

2 years

US-China relations are entering perilous period. A short thread. 1/

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4 years

I can think of no armed conflict involving China where it has released casualty figures publicly at the time of the conflict. Usually, they are published years or decades later. Casualties from 1962 war only published in 1994 internal history.

Rahul Kanwal

@rahulkanwal

4 years

Indian intel agencies looking carefully at audio intercepts, visuals, survivor reports to assess casualties on Chinese side. Preliminary reports indicate heavy fatalities acc to Indian Govt briefing. India doesn’t except China to own up to because of track record of hiding deaths

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@fravel

2 years

Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is confirmed via @CNN , @FT and @WSJ (though not yet publicly by the Speaker or her staff). How will China respond? A short thread 1/

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4 years

China today has active territorial disputes with seven countries over six areas: —Tawain —India border —Bhutan border —Paracel Islands (Vietnam, Taiwan) —Spratly Islands (Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan) —Senkaku Islands (Japan)

Nitin A. Gokhale

@nitingokhale

4 years

China has disputes with over dozen countries

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@fravel

4 years

Deadliest clash on the China-India border since 1967, or in over 50 years. This will likely be a watershed moment in India-China relations.

Rahul Kanwal

@rahulkanwal

4 years

Indian Army confirms 20 deaths. Toll could go up further.

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@fravel

3 years

US favorable views of China the lowest since Gallup started polling on this question in 1979—and ten points lower than after Tiananmen in 1989

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@fravel

2 years

China has conducted ballistic missile tests with 16 missiles. They landed in three closure areas to Taiwan's northeast, east, and southeast. A short thread. 1/

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@fravel

2 years

If China agrees to this reported request from Russia and supplies arms to Moscow, Ukraine would become the first proxy war in the US-China rivalry

Russia has asked China for military help in Ukraine, US officials say

White House fears move is sign of ever closer ties between Beijing and Moscow

www.ft.com

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@fravel

4 years

A short thread on China’s claims and maps in the Galwan Valley.

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@fravel

4 years

The PRC has approx 200 warheads atop missiles that can range CONUS. The United States has about 3,570 that can strike China.

Archive: Dr. Mark T. Esper

@EsperDoD

4 years

As Communist China moves to at least double the size of its nuclear stockpile, modernizing our nuclear force and maintaining readiness is essential to a free and open Indo-Pacific.

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@fravel

4 years

Big news for PLA watchers—the Central Military Commission is starting to issue new operational doctrine. A short thread. 1/

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@fravel

2 years

Xi Jinping has not left China since the start of the pandemic. Yet, due to the Olympics, Xi has met with ~19 foreigner leaders so far. China has also signed joint statements with 7 countries—Russia, Ecuador, Papua New Guinea, Argentina, Pakistan, Mongolia and Kyrgyzstan.

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M. Taylor Fravel

@fravel

2 years

So, buckle up, as Evan Medeiros, @BonnieGlaser , and others have noted, we are heading straight toward a Fourth Taiwan Strait crisis. END/

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@fravel

4 years

“Indonesia on Friday rejected a Chinese offer for negotiations on the South China Sea, as Jakarta reiterated that it had no overlapping claims with Beijing in its exclusive economic zone." Translation: we do not accept your historic rights claim.

Indonesia Rejects Beijing’s Offer for South China Sea Talks

“It is not relevant to hold any dialogue on maritime boundary delimitation,” a senior official with Jakarta’s foreign office says.

www.benarnews.org

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M. Taylor Fravel

@fravel

2 years

Of course, even if Biden believes Pelosi's visit to be unwise, he has no authority over her actions. The executive and legislative branches of government are separate but co-equal. But, b/c Pelosi and Biden are both Democrats, Xi will likely believe Biden has such authority. 4/

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@fravel

2 years

The upcoming Biden-Xi phone call later this week, reported by @Dimi , is likely to force both sides into a box from which it will be hard to escape. 2/

Biden and Xi to hold call as tensions grow over Pelosi visit to Taiwan

US president to speak with Chinese counterpart on Thursday for fifth time since taking office

www.ft.com

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M. Taylor Fravel

@fravel

2 years

Now, assume Pelosi goes ahead with the visit. This seems likely, as other members of Congress cast her visit as a question of what China can or cannot "dictate" to Congress (not what is sound vs unsound policy). 6/

Rep. Ro Khanna

@RepRoKhanna

2 years

Who are they to say that @SpeakerPelosi shouldn’t go to Taiwan? The Chinese Communist Party doesn’t get to dictate the travel schedule of the Speaker of the House.

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M. Taylor Fravel

@fravel

4 years

And Taiwan

Ben Rhodes

@brhodes

4 years

When you hear that China did a better job containing COVID-19 because it’s authoritarian, remember South Korea. The issue is competence, not democracy.

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@fravel

2 years

Time to stop describing these comments as “gaffes”

Biden says U.S. forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion

The statement is U.S. President Biden's most explicit on the issue, drawing an angry response from China.

www.reuters.com

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M. Taylor Fravel

@fravel

5 years

Some personal news: M Taylor Fravel named director of the MIT Security Studies Program

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M. Taylor Fravel

@fravel

4 years

Some thoughts on what's happening between China/India in Askai Chin...

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@fravel

2 years

Xi will likely state in no uncertain terms and in tough language that Biden should stop Pelosi from visiting. He will also likely include vague threats of unspecified consequences should the visit go ahead. 3/

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M. Taylor Fravel

@fravel

4 years

My essay in @ForeignAffairs on the China-India border dispute

China’s Sovereignty Obsession

Beijing’s need to project strength explains the border clash with India.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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@fravel

3 years

If China quadruples its stockpile of nuclear warheads, it grows from low 200s (per DIA) to, say, 900 to 1000. The US stockpile is around 3,800. In what world is having 4x the stockpile of your competitor being "overmatched"?

Ken Moriyasu

@kenmoriyasu

3 years

Sen. Tom Cotton: China "could possibly have nuclear overmatch against the United States before the end of this decade, is that correct?" Adm. Philip Davidson: "If they were to quadruple their stockpile Yes."

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4 years

A short thread on China’s maps and claims in its territorial dispute with Bhutan, focusing on the area around the Sakteng wildlife sanctuary in eastern Bhutan (adjacent to India’s Arunachal Pradesh). 1/

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@fravel

1 year

China now the rationale for almost all policy…

Officials warn that China, Russia will exploit chaos if U.S. defaults

Officials from the Treasury Department and other experts have warned that the United States could default on its debt as early as June 1 if Congress does not take action.

www.washingtonpost.com

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@fravel

10 months

My take in @ForeignAffairs on whether China's economic difficulties will lead it to be more aggressive abroad:

The Myth of Chinese Diversionary War

Domestic turmoil won’t make Beijing launch an attack—but will make it more likely to react to external threats.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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@fravel

1 year

CIA director Burns remarks on China yesterday: 1) Burns said that the United States knew "as a matter of intelligence" that Xi had ordered his military to be ready to conduct an invasion of self-governed Taiwan by 2027.

CIA chief warns against underestimating Xi's ambitions toward Taiwan

U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns said on Thursday that Chinese President Xi Jinping's ambitions toward Taiwan should not be underestimated, despite him likely being sobered by...

www.reuters.com

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@fravel

2 years

Thus, the stakes for Xi in how to respond will be even higher, and create even stronger incentives for a forceful response, than if no phone call occurred. Policy, reputation, and credibiltiy will be seen to be at stake. 8/

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2 years

Also, China's efforts are likely to backfire and lead to redoubled efforts, especially in Congress, to do even more for Taiwan. END/

Analysis | Senate looks to update and deepen U.S.-Taiwan relationship

This is sure to anger China and could unsettle the White House

www.washingtonpost.com

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@fravel

2 years

Xi may now conclude that 1) the United States is continuing to "hollow out" its One China policy, perhaps to a point of no return, and 2) that he has been snubbed / scorned / slighted by Biden. 7/

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@fravel

2 years

China’s ambassador to the UN: “intensifying unilateral sanctions” are more “deeply concerning” than an intensifying invasion of a sovereign state.

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M. Taylor Fravel

@fravel

6 years

I've finally submitted my manuscript on China's military strategy to my editor -- let production begin!

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@fravel

2 years

Xi's statement will be a personal one, too, from one leader to another. This will not be spokespeople trading jabs and barbs from behind a podium. 5/

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2 years

New Pew polling on US views of China..negative views continue to grow

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3 years

Important note: PLA Daily story that revealed the deaths was about decorations for gallantry awarded by the CMC and the actions by these five soldiers. It was not a complete account of clash or designed to provide a full accounting of all casualties.

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@fravel

3 years

Will China soon outgun the United States? Will procurement spending by China’s military surpass that of the United States in 2024? A short thread

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M. Taylor Fravel

@fravel

4 years

The PLA's Western Command has issued a statement on the Galwan River clash. A rough translation is attached (sharing, not endorsing). A few things to note:

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3 years

Is Taiwan a US treaty ally? Is the PRC's "One China" principle the same as the "One China" policy of the United States? No. A brief thread on some useful reference sources. 1/

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@fravel

4 years

Wuhan lab link to COVID-19 pandemic unfounded, says Australian intelligence

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1 year

Remarkable news about China’s rocket forces: Its new commander comes from the Chinese navy, not the PLARF. For the first time since at least 1982, the PLARF commander is an outsider without any previous experience in the service. Big shake-up.

Xi presents order to promote military officers to rank of general

english.news.cn

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4 years

Bhutan: “Bhutan totally rejects the claim made by…China. Sakteng Wildlife Sanctuary is an integral and sovereign territory of Bhutan and at no point during the boundary discussions between Bhutan and China has it featured as a disputed area.”

China makes new claim in eastern border with Bhutan | World News - The Indian Express

Beijing made this claim while objecting to a request to develop the Sakteng wildlife sanctuary in eastern Bhutan’s Trashigang district at an online meeting of the Global Environment Facility (GEF)....

indianexpress.com

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M. Taylor Fravel

@fravel

4 years

3 separate brawls, outsider Chinese troops & more: Most detailed account of the brutal June 15 Galwan battle by ⁦ @ShivAroor ⁩

3 separate brawls, 'outsider' Chinese troops & more: Most detailed account of the brutal June 15...

Plenty has been written so far about the clash between Indian and Chinese troops in Ladakh's Galwan Valley. But India Today brings you the most detailed account of the brutal June 15 Galwan battle.

www.indiatoday.in

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@fravel

4 years

After bloodshed, Army engineers toil 72 hours to finish Galwan bridge that triggered China

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M. Taylor Fravel

@fravel

6 years

The @PrincetonUPress page for my new book on China’s military strategy is now live!

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@fravel

1 year

Meanwhile…

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4 years

Modi's 'No Intrusion' by China Claim Contradicts India's Stand, Raises Multiple Questions

After his assertion led to criticism, the PMO has sought to clarify that the prime minister had spoken of an attempted Chinese intrusion which had been successfully foiled by Indian soldiers.

thewire.in

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@fravel

4 years

Did China just unveil a plan to build a fully modern military by 2027? No. A thread.

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@fravel

5 years

“Huawei Technologies Co Ltd will immediately lose access to updates to the Android operating system, and the next version of its smartphones outside of China will also lose access to popular applications and services including the Google Play Store and Gmail app.”

Steve Conlon

@stevenconlon

5 years

Exclusive: Google suspends some business with Huawei after Trump blacklist - source

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M. Taylor Fravel

@fravel

5 years

Unboxing an advanced copy of my book, which arrived yesterday. Thanks to my editor @bridgetfmccoy for the appropriate wrapping paper!

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@fravel

2 years

So, 1) The response will almost certainly include a military component, most likely with a show of force in the first instance—live fire exercises, a much greater military presence within the Taiwan Strait and esp across "the median line," even missile tests. 7/

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2 years

China's readout of SecState Blinken's phone call with FM Wang Yi contains new language on China's position in the Ukraine crisis—it contains China's most detailed public statement to date. 1/

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1 month

THREAD How much does China spend on defense? A hardy perennial question! US officials and analysts suggest it now exceeds $700B—rapidly approaching the level of the US defense budget. 1/

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2 years

Zelensky on China

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2 years

4) The goal will be to underscore resolve without sparking escalation, but the likely prominence to the military component will include the potential for miscalculation. There are also significant US naval assets in the region at the moment. 10/

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7 years

Trump says unsure if Tillerson will remain secretary of state great way to start big trip to Asia

Trump says unsure if Tillerson will remain secretary of state

U.S. President Donald Trump said he was unsure whether his top diplomat, Rex Tillerson, would remain in his post for the rest of Trump's term in the White House and was "not happy" that some State...

www.reuters.com

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@fravel

4 years

Xi Jinping’s phone call with Ecuador’s president dominates Xinhua’s homepage this morning, Beijing time. The only mention of Galwan clash is “below the fold,” and just a link to the Western Command’s statement from yesterday. No signs China is trying to mobilize public opinion.

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@fravel

2 years

The missiles landing in the eastern closure area almost certainly overfly the island of Taiwan, which is unprecedented in PLA exercises targeting the island and highly provocative. 5/

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2 years

3) The response will likely unfold over days if not weeks, but likely start after Pelosi departs Taiwan. Unlike previous CODELs even earlier this year, China will do more than surge aircraft into Taiwan's ADIZ for a day or two. 9/

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7 years

If Russia was notified, then so was Syria.

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4 years

Japan to Fund Firms to Shift Production Out of China

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4 years

A remarkably detailed timeline of events in the Galwan Valley clash.

Violent India-China clash at LAC: What really happened that night

Twenty Indian Army personnel including a commanding officer (CO) were killed in a fierce clash with Chinese troops in the Galwan Valley in eastern Ladakh on Monday night, the biggest military...

www.indiatoday.in

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@fravel

3 years

Big news — the good folks from ⁦ @CASI_Research ⁩ have posted a complete and downloadable translation of an important Chinese military text, the 2013 edition of the Science of Military Strategy (战略学). h/t ⁦ @CollinSLKoh ⁩ 1/

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@fravel

3 years

Great power rivalry ≠ "Cold War"

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@fravel

2 years

Authoritative statement from the PLA's Eastern Theater Command. Rough translation: it will conduct joint air and sea exercises north, southwest and southeast of Taiwan and "ordinary" (常导) fire power test launches *east* of Taiwan (ie, over Taiwan)

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4 years

Pompeo’s apparent intent: move as far toward de facto recognition of Taiwan as his authorities as Sec of State allow...placing Taiwan in the cross-hairs of US-China relations, leaving a flaming diplomatic turd for the new administration, and avoiding all the consequences.

M. Taylor Fravel

@fravel

4 years

“Executive branch agencies should consider all “contact guidelines” regarding relations with Taiwan previously issued by the Department of State under authorities delegated to the Secretary of State to be null and void.”

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3 years

A short thread on new "villages" being built along or near the China-India border or LAC. 1/

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2 years

A few things to bear in mind: First, since last fall, after Biden's two gaffes in October, senior Chinese leaders have expressed elevated concern about changes in the US "One China" policy and US policy toward Taiwan. 2/

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2 years

Thus, China will likely believe it needs to restore its credibility and bolster its red lines over Taiwan and to deter further erosion of US policy. 4/

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3 years

This article is definitely worth your time

US-China tech war: Beijing's secret chipmaking champions

How Washington's sanctions boosted China's semiconductor sector

asia.nikkei.com

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@fravel

4 years

Unconfirmed by China, but reports of 43 PLA casualties (killed and wounded) indicate the clash involved a large number of troops from sides.

ANI

@ANI

4 years

Indian intercepts reveal that Chinese side suffered 43 casualties including dead and seriously injured in face-off in the Galwan valley: Sources confirm to ANI

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2 years

2) The response will also include economic and diplomatic actions, probably mostly targeting Taiwan. 8/

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2 years

Second, the PLA is nearing the peak of its annual training cycle. Many units are active and in the field—they can be easily tasked to undertake additional operations. 5/

China puts on show of naval force ahead of Nancy Pelosi's possible Taiwan visit

The Chinese military is mounting a show of force ahead of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's Asian tour, which could include a visit to Taiwan. As China hardened its posture, despite growing concern...

www.yahoo.com

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@fravel

4 years

“Indian troops began taking an alternate track to reach Finger 8 on foot, going behind the heights at Finger 4. This was strongly objected to by the Chinese and tensions mounted in the area, leading to the violent scuffle...May 5/6 this year.”

First signs of trouble in Pangong was last September, days after Ladakh became UT

Ever since a brawl on September 11 last year – 10 Indian security personnel were injured in the incident -- the Chinese side has been attempting to block Indian patrols from proceeding towards Finger...

indianexpress.com

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3 years

Terrific paper by ⁦ @ShivshankaMenon ⁩

Internal Drivers of China’s External Behaviour - CSEP

Shivshankar Menon suggests crucial domestic factors which have driven China’s path and examines some implications of the role in shaping China’s policy choices.

csep.org

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@fravel

3 years

Pandemic Zoom achievement unlocked — thanks @ratemyskyperoom !

Room Rater

@ratemyskyperoom

3 years

Best Chinese language book setup we’ve seen. Add a vase. 9/10 @fravel

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4 years

A few thoughts on this image from @detresfa_ 1) China has built a dirt road up to the "triangle" of patrol point 14 on or just over the LAC as shown in the image 2) the "triangle" appears to be under Chinese control

Damien Symon

@detresfa_

4 years

Images via @Maxar of the #GalwanValley face-off point on 22 June 2020 show possible defensive positions being set up by #China , small walls, trench type areas have now appeared on site #IndiaChinaFaceOff

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2 years

Wang Yi in late October began describing the US as pursuing a "fake" One China policy. Xi Jinping at least twice warned Biden in separate virtual meetings "not to play with fire" over Taiwan. 3/

Biden-Xi talks: China warns US about 'playing with fire' on Taiwan

Xi Jinping and Joe Biden hold substantial talks but exchange sharp words on Taiwan.

www.bbc.com

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3 years

We could start by talking about how misleading this. US Pacific Fleet, under INDOPACOM, has more destroyers and cruisers than the entire PLA Navy, 55 to 33. And, as @nukestrat notes, it omits all US nuclear forces.

Dhruva Jaishankar · ध्रुव जयशंकर

@d_jaishankar

3 years

If only this topic received one-tenth — nay, even 1% — of the attention being paid to the British royal family...

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2 years

Of course, there are many unknowns at this point: Pelosi's schedule, whether the visit will be described / portrayed as an unofficial one, what Pelosi says in Taiwan, etc. 11/

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4 years

China’s belief that India was playing the “Tibet card” was a key factor for Beijing in the decision to go to war in 1962.

Ajai Shukla

@ajaishukla

4 years

Just saw a US-based China analyst propose on TV that India should play the Tibet card against China, to make it pay a cost for occupying Indian territory. That would surely induce China to play the Kashmir card, joining hands with Pakistan. Anyone wants to war-game the outcome?

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Interesting piece by an analyst from the PRC’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs research institute, on why China will not pursue forceful unification of Taiwan...for now.

Mainland China is in no position to take Taiwan by force | East Asia Forum

With the exception of missile exercises during Taiwan’s first direct presidential election in 1996, Beijing has historically been restrained in its military intimidation, choosing to vent its anger...

eastasiaforum.org

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2 years

Video from the PRC MOD -- shows the DF-15 short-range ballistic missile being fired from several locations -- unclear if other missiles were used -- includes a map showing 16 pins landing in closure areas 2/

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4 years

Shortly after 9/11: “shouldn’t you study terrorism, not China?”

Andrea Malji

@polisciprofhi

4 years

What’s the worst grad school advice you received?

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Great overview of the path to disengagement by ⁦ @NayanimaBasu ⁩ and ⁦ @sneheshphilip ⁩, from July to the present

India, China inch closer to disengagement in Ladakh, focus on Pangong Tso

According to a proposal planned by both sides to ease LAC tensions, the Chinese will move back from Finger 4 area of northern banks of Pangong Tso to beyond Finger 8.

theprint.in

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4 years

A picture is circulating on Weibo, showing the tombstone of a 19 year old Chinese soldier who died in the “China-India Border Defense Struggle” in June 2020. He was from Fujian Province.

网上传出疑似在中印冲突牺牲的中国士兵墓碑照

中国网络流传一张墓碑照片显示，一名解放军士兵墓碑碑文表明他在早前的中印冲突中死亡。不过有网友认为，该照片是PS出来的。微博网友“阅文直上��云”、“西安老方A”发表微博，公开了一张中...

www.zaobao.com.sg

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3 years

Remarkable document just released by DoD, “General Milley's Engagements with the People's Liberation Army Leaders” [PDF]

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3 years

Important piece

Has Washington’s Policy Toward Taiwan Crossed the Rubicon?

Testimony from officials in the State Department and Defense Department this week included subtle but important shifts in the U.S. policy toward Taiwan.

nationalinterest.org

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@fravel

3 years

Since late Nov 2020, @US7thFleet has issued press releases for freedom of navigation operations it conducts. Targeted maritime claims include those of Russia, Japan, China, Vietnam, the Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, India, and the Maldives.

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M. Taylor Fravel

@fravel

2 years

A somewhat analogous episode occurred in early Sept 2012, when Hu Jintao appealed to Japanese Prime Minister Noda to halt the purchase ("nationalization") of three the Senkaku islets at the APEC meeting in Vladivostok. 9/

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M. Taylor Fravel

@fravel

4 years

China’s official media continues to downplay Galwan Valley clash. Xinhua’s homepage leads with Xi’s speech to China-Africa Forum. The readout of Wang Yi’s call with Jaishankar is the 13th story down.

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M. Taylor Fravel

@fravel

2 years

Great thread on China and the Ukraine war, by @zhaot2005

Tong ZHAO

@zhaot2005

2 years

FWIW, a thread 🧵to share my preliminary thoughts on the impact of #UkraineRussiaWar on China’s future strategic orientation.

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M. Taylor Fravel

@fravel

3 years

Surprised this is not getting more attention.

US ambassador visits Taiwan for 1st time in 42 years | Taiwan News | Mar. 29, 2021 12:53

www.taiwannews.com.tw

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M. Taylor Fravel

@fravel

3 years

Today was my day For J and J One and done Grateful...hooray!

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M. Taylor Fravel

@fravel

3 years

Malaysia scrambles jets to intercept 16 Chinese military planes

Malaysia scrambles jets to intercept ‘incursion’ by 16 Chinese military planes

Aircraft identified as Chinese Ilyushin 1l-76s and Xian Y-20s spotted near East Malaysian state of Sarawak.

www.scmp.com

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M. Taylor Fravel

@fravel

2 years

Exhibit A for ignoring the trolling Global Times, most of the time.

Global Times

@globaltimesnews

2 years

#Editorial : If Pelosi's plane is found flying toward our airspace, the PLA fighter jets could warn, follow, intercept, electronically interfere, force a landing, or drive it back.