If there are no US casualties and this is the extent of Iranian retaliation, then the US does not need to escalate. Iran can fire the missiles. Killing Soleimani was a far bigger blow.
In late March, the Princeton graduate student and
@NewlinesInst
scholar Elizabeth Tsurkov (
@Elizrael
) disappeared in Iraq. She deserves America's every effort to bring her to safety. |
@newlinesmag
Lobbyist talking points coalescing:
1) We didn’t mean it. We feel bad, really.
2) MBS learned his lesson but is going nowhere
3) Lets put this ugly episode behind us
4) We need to protect the kingdom,
#ForJamal
of course.
Erodgan, talking about northeast Syria with TRT yesterday, said: "The most suitable for this area are Arabs. These areas are not suitable for the lifestyle of Kurds."
Asked, in what way? "Because these are virtually desert regions."
via
@AliKucukgocmen
This Nasrallah speech was less an announcement of anything and more of a long opinionated commentary. Which will be good news to most most Lebanese who do not want a war. Operations will continue in the south so they might get one anyway, but this looks like Hamas’ war for now.
No this isn't what the protests in Lebanon are about. This isn't even what anyone in lebanon claims they're about.
We can oppose Iranian influence in Lebanon without mischaracterizing the protests.
Millions of Lebanese & Iraqis are on the streets protesting against illegal occupation of their countries by the Islamic Republic, and its support for their corrupt political elites. Iranians on the streets once again against illegal occupation of Iran by the Islamic Republic.
Day 1 Narrative: "SDF is a multi-ethnic coalition with local legitimacy"
Day 2 Narrative: "Trump abandons Kurds!"
One of these is an over-simplification. Im actually at a loss at this point over which one it is.
If an uprising breaks out in a foreign country the policy question is not whether the US should initiate regime change, but simply one of picking sides. By this point someone *inside* the place has already decided to give regime change a try.
Not everything is the Iraq War.
(1/2) Some personal news: I'm excited to join the Center for Global Policy
@cglobalpolicy
, focusing on geopolitics and non-state actors in the Islamic world alongside such high-calibre thinkers as
@hxhassan
and
@kamranbokhari
.
I've discovered that a great way to remain objective about international affairs is to immerse yourself in both sides of the online discourse. This way you remember to hate them both.
@jasmineelgamal
The irony is I think they're using the oil as a way to get POTUS to keep troops in Syria for non oil reasons. But try explaining that to your uncle at iftaar.
My guess is Lindsey Graham wouldn’t shut up about Syria and eventually President Trump got bored and told him what he wanted to hear before proceeding as planned. Making Graham the 173rd official to insist he understands President Trump better than Trump does.
This silly idea won't die. The GCC were not really confrontation states, share no border w Israel, and have a relatively low population. Their regimes are not "The Arabs". And fear of Iran does not make for an 'Islamic reformation'.
@mehdirhasan
I do think it's silly to complain about what people say about their mortal enemies. You can bet I'd have a foul mouth if I had experienced what he did. Or anyone in conflicts like this .
No I didn't dodge them. I agree so I had no objection. Relax.
Lebanon/Hezbollah thread:
1.There seems to be some surprise that hezbollah would lead/condone/encourage violence against peaceful protesters with socioeconomic grievances. I believe this is less surprising if we see Hezbollah today as a product of two trends .
To grasp the significance of this, consider that you are actually free to speak against hezbollah in Lebanon ... unless you're Shia. It's unthinkable to me that members of the sect would be saying this stuff publicly.
'For people who think of foreign relations as Iran versus the U.S. or Putin vs. Xi Jinping, it can be hard to grasp just how little govts sometimes matter in the Middle East'
by
@CGlobalPolicy
's
@hxhassan
The Middle Eastern Problem Soleimani Figured Out
Saudi Arabia:
- Violates human rights
- Oppresses women
- Murders journalists
- Meddles in the affairs Middle Eastern countries
- Is fighting a war that endangers millions in Yemen
- Has citizens who have financed / engaged in terror
Why is that ok but Iran is in US crosshairs?
Reuters reports that Iran's supreme leader approved the attack on the Saudi oil installation so long as no civilians were hit. If true, that's far better than the Saudi crown prince's attacks in Yemen which routinely kill civilians.
Sadly there was no scenario in which things in N. Syria would go well. These contradictions were built into a US CT policy that predates Trump. A US-Turkish war over this (which some seem to have expected?) was never happening either.
Not a hot take, more like a reheated one.
In this piece for
@cgpolicy
I argue:
- Killing Soleimani should be judged by its specific goals, not one's views of 'maximum pressure'.
- Iran is geopolitically strong but has few wise escalation options.
-The US need not retaliate - it's made its point.
Why do we need a way forward. Who is losing sleep right now over Assad not rebuilding the country he destroyed. His people? He killed and exiled them and those who are left cannot possibly ever benefit from whatever is rebuilt as long as he is in power.
Some observations from Beirut:
-Uber is your friend
-Mobile internet now works (regular internet still doesn't)
-More Israeli drones, less Israeli jets
-More English, less French
-Beirut summers now officially more bearable than DC ones
-Population feels like its doubled.
"From a military and diplomatic perspective, Soleimani was Iran’s David Petraeus and Stan McChrystal and Brett McGurk all rolled into one,"
@ExumAM
writes.
@faysal7899
@RashaAlAqeedi
@ABarnardNYT
I honestly believe arab deaths are just an abstraction. Unless it is either a religious minority or an ethnic one there is no way any narrative can get traction. Im saying this as an analysis not just an expression of discontent.
'Black Wave' by
@KimGhattas
is such an important and timely book. I'm glad it exists, and it should be required reading for anyone trying to understand how we (Islamic world/Middle east) got were we are. Big historical narratives and fascinating detail as well.
I testified on US policy in
#Syria
to the House Subcommittee on Middle East and North Africa, joined by esteemed colleagues
@fordrs58
,
@Charles_Lister
, and Mara Karlin.
Some very interesting and (to me at least) unexpected findings in this Gallup opinion poll in northern
#Syria
. Sure to also ruffle some feathers in an otherwise sober, balanced debate about Kurds, Arabs, and Turkey in Syria.
Minister Gebran Bassil speaking at the
#ICCP_Budapest
was critical of
#LebanonProtest
for blocking roads. Why didn't he mention meeting the demands of the people or the violence of Hezbollah thugs?
In this landmark report, 30 leading global leading experts conclude that
#Russia
is in breach of the Genocide Convention. Our latest report w/
@TheRWCHR
concludes there is a serious risk of genocide occurring in
#Ukraine
.
Some iffy Middle East prospects:
MBS reforming Islam
Turkey leaving PYD alone due to US efforts
MESA
Europe replacing US in Syria
Sisi's economic success
Kushner-esque peace
Regime collapse in Iran
Meaningful Arab role in Maximum Pressure
LAF checking hezbollah
Reform in Damascus
Unpopular opinion: 1917 is a technical masterpiece. It's also a shallow movie, with superficial characters and an oddly santized depiction of war (despite the destruction etc). More than anything it felt like watching a well made video game.
Happy Sunday.
If the strike on Saudi Arabia came from Iran and they get away with it, we need to retire the "maximum pressure" descriptor and put some creative copywriters to work.
I sympathize with some of this but most of the proposed alternatives are also impractical. That's partly why they've not been pursued. Its not just because everyone else is stupid.
Hassan Diab somehow manages to be a worse candidate for Lebanese PM than Saad Hariri:
1) lower international profile
2) antagonizes sunnis
3) more or less just as unqualified
4) possibly more narcissistic
5) just as unpopular among protesters
Proceed.
Could this endless argument finally be settled?
Oxford study sheds light on an agelong controversy. The young age of the Prophet Muhammad’s wife is not historical fact but sectarian and political stories that are historically untrue. By
@DrJavadTHashmi
Im shocked by the flood of Team Obamites protesting the catastrophic impact of a withdrawal from Syria and its empowerment of Iran and Russia. Really? While I've not always agreed with them, I've respected their intellect. But this is unacceptably cynical.
People like to hate on Dulles Airport. But the crown jewel of awful-airports-that-you'd-expect-to-be-decent is the hellscape that is Charles de Gaulle.
Today's Hezbollah feels both besieged and powerful at once. Observers of middle east regimes will recognize this combination of paranoia and arrogance well. There is no scenario in which Hezbollah does not do what it takes to protect itself.
END.
President Trump is about to make major, consequential mistake in Syria. Sources say US is tonight informing its Syrian Kurdish allies that US is withdrawing from positions on Turkish border, abandoning so-called “security mechanism,” to allow an invasion by Turkish forces...
I think there should be a rule. Three years in pundit jail everytime you incorrectly embrace a false reformer. Four if he's Arab. Five if he promises to reform Islam.
Exciting news for
@CGlobalPolicy
: Bassam Barabandi
@BASSAMVA
has joined our program on Nonstate Actors and Geopolitics, working alongside
@hxhassan
and I. We're lucky to have his experience, expertise, and awesome character supporting our big plans for CGP.
I can't figure out who the intended audience of the Pompeo speech was. Surely he doesn't think Arab populations will agree with or even relate to much of what he said? A private conversation with regime leaders would have been equally efficient and less embarrassing. Strange.
Trump’s move will not put an end to endless wars. What it *will* do is reward Russia, Iran, and ISIS.
He’s not leading us toward peace. He’s showing the world that his political interests are more important than reliable leadership and keeping our commitments to our allies.
If you’ve not read
@newlinesinst
’s landmark report, I recommend it.
An Independent Legal Analysis of the Russian Federation’s Breaches of the Genocide Convention in Ukraine and the Duty to Prevent
Honestly, the worst part of this was the Obama administration’s refusal to prosecute due to fear of Hezbollah reprisal against the US. Only they would freely admit something like that and sincerely not see anything wrong with it.