Eurovoxpop @eurovoxpop Twitter profile

Pinned Tweet

Eurovoxpop

5 months

I'm delighted to announce that my Eurovision 2024 forecasting model is ready to launch! All the details below 👇

Using statistics to predict Eurovision: Introducing the 2024 Eurovoxpop forecasting model

I am delighted to announce that after months of rigorous number-crunching, my 2024 Eurovision forecasting model is now complete and ready to launch! I have been using statistics to forecast Eurovis…

eurovoxpop.uk

0

2

22

Last Seen Profiles

@sin_itirou

@Gyro_Maybe

@rpkinu

@XLeO_HoPex

@TheSaintCentre

@SinnWon

@stevehickey11

@schmidtpolylab

@redwugong

@VoluntariadoDe3

@AliHidar95

@PickEmLegend

@KINGOFCLONEX

@sociomateria

@tomisho333

@ahmadshbrn_

@stw_pdg

@nayekelshrameet

@ift92

@cosam_the_great

@stw46

@wangjupaian

@ICD_AEJMC

@QorusDocs

@JPAlGd

@lorbadalona

@enbyhime

@TuncayTursucu

@kevintoconnor

@sotwecom

@kensleypope

@ImLivingForLove

@gappyshamp

@joeymonda

@allround_1982

@fan4fan2

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

Post-rehearsals Eurovision 2024 model forecast Win chances: 🇮🇹 Italy: 27% 🇺🇦 Ukraine: 19% 🇭🇷 Croatia: 14% 🇨🇭 Switzerland: 13% 🇫🇷 France: 6% 🇮🇱 Israel: 6% 🇳🇱 Netherlands: 3%

3

4

73

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

💭 Are Eurovision televote tastes becoming more homogenous? Lithuania's 1.57 points per country is the LOWEST score for a song finishing in the televote top 10 since 2009.

3

34

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

6 months

💥 Which means the winner of the first ever Eurovoxpop opinion poll is ITALY 💥 🥇: 🇮🇹 Angelina Mango – 'La noia' 287 pts / 152 votes Angelina Mango achieved a pretty comfortable victory, beating her nearest rival by almost 80 points. A crucial factor in her victory was having

3

1

32

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

I'm breaking somewhat with the consensus, but I am projecting that Israel is the most likely Eurovision winner tonight. Full forecast below.

7

2

30

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

Semi-final 1 FINAL FORECAST #Eurovision #Eurovision2024

1

30

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

Eurovision winners by televote position... 2009: 🇳🇴 1st 2010: 🇩🇪 1st 2011: 🇦🇿 1st 2012: 🇸🇪 1st 2013: 🇩🇰 1st 2014: 🇦🇹 1st 2015: 🇸🇪 3rd 2016: 🇺🇦 2nd 2017: 🇵🇹 1st 2018: 🇮🇱 1st 2019: 🇳🇱 2nd 2021: 🇮🇹 1st 2022: 🇺🇦 1st 2023: 🇸🇪 2nd 2024: 🇨🇭 5th Switzerland is the first country to win

4

3

23

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

Meanwhile, Ukraine 8.30 points per country is by far the HIGHEST score for a song finishing in third place in the televote.

0

22

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

🇮🇱 Israel was the only country not to give Switzerland any televote points in the final. 🇭🇷 Croatia was the only country not to give Switzerland any jury points in the final.

0

3

21

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

6 months

💥 EUROVOXPOP 2024 OPINION POLL: WEIGHTED RESULTS We have received 1,140 votes in total in our 2024 opinion poll. Votes have now been weighted along demographic lines to try and achieve a representative sample of Eurovision televoters. Voting remains open during the results

2

0

20

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

If this is real, Israel got *40%* of the televote in Italy. #Eurovision

Gαβrίєℓє

@itsgebher

5 months

Il momento in cui la Rai per errore ha fatto trapelare i risultati del nostro televoto

20

43

310

2

15

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

Not convinced by this. I think a lot of the staging choices narrow the song’s appeal too much (a long-term trend with Eurovision favourites!) The costuming is a key factor — Nemo looks swamped.

ESC Discord

@ESCdiscord

5 months

🇨🇭 SRG SSR has shared a teaser of Nemo's second #Eurovision rehearsal! [📹 nemothings]

98

199

2K

1

0

13

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

7 months

📊 44% of Italy's votes so far are coming from voters whose favourite 2023 entry was Sweden 🇸🇪 Full demographic breakdown for Italy 🇮🇹 below. Vote in our poll here:

1

2

15

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

6 months

📰 NEW ARTICLE How much does running order affect televote results?

How much does running order affect televote results?

The effect of running order on Eurovision televote results can be difficult to assess given that the draw has been producer-led since 2013.1 It simply isn’t possible to get an accurate estima…

eurovoxpop.uk

2

1

13

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

As Eurovision 2024 rehearsals kick off, here is my first nowcast for semi-final one. Article coming shortly.

1

0

13

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

I’ve used the results of the Italian televote and the 10 qualifiers to retrospectively estimate the overall result of semi-final 2, in order to help project the final televote result. I will post the full projection in my final preview article tomorrow, but here are the

0

12

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

First nowcast for semi-final two with rehearsals now underway. #Eurovision #Eurovision2024

4

0

12

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

7 months

644 votes have now been cast in our #Eurovision2024 poll. 🇮🇹 Italy still leads the unweighted results with 90 votes. Weighted results will be published in the coming weeks. We're still missing voters from a number of countries, including 🇦🇲🇨🇭🇫🇮🇳🇴🇺🇦. If you're from one of those

0

1

12

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

6 months

🚨 We've officially reached 1,000 votes in our #Eurovision2024 poll! As promised, here are the (unweighted) results by age group so far... U20: 🇧🇪🇦🇲🇮🇹🇬🇷🇨🇭 20-29: 🇮🇹🇬🇷🇨🇭🇱🇹🇳🇱 30-39: 🇮🇹🇭🇷🇨🇭🇫🇷🇺🇦 40-49: 🇭🇷🇧🇪🇨🇭🇺🇦🇳🇱 50+: 🇭🇷🇮🇹🇺🇦🇧🇪🇨🇭 Vote here:

2

1

11

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

Semi-final 2 FINAL FORECAST #Eurovision #Eurovision2024

2

1

11

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

🇬🇧 Olly sounding better this evening, and whole package is elevated with crowd interaction. #Eurovision

0

1

11

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

Eurovision 2024 dress rehearsal thread 🧵 30 minutes to go…

1

0

11

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

6 months

After 1,365 votes, Italy is the winner of our first ever Eurovision opinion poll! Votes were weighted to try and achieve a representative sample of the Eurovision viewing public, but in the end Angelina Mango topped the scoreboard in terms of both raw votes and overall weighted

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

6 months

💥 Which means the winner of the first ever Eurovoxpop opinion poll is ITALY 💥 🥇: 🇮🇹 Angelina Mango – 'La noia' 287 pts / 152 votes Angelina Mango achieved a pretty comfortable victory, beating her nearest rival by almost 80 points. A crucial factor in her victory was having

3

1

32

2

1

11

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

Final forecast coming shortly.

2

0

8

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

A remarkable 71 out of 185 individual jury members ranked Switzerland in first place (38%). Countries with at least five juror 1st places: 71: 🇨🇭 Switzerland 22: 🇭🇷 Croatia 22: 🇫🇷 France 11: 🇮🇪 Ireland 10: 🇺🇦 Ukraine 7: 🇮🇹 Italy 7: 🇵🇹 Portugal 5: 🇱🇻 Latvia 5: 🇱🇺 Luxembourg

1

2

10

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

Full write-up 👇

Eurovision 2024: Post-rehearsals forecast

After months of preparation, Eurovision week has finally come around. This year marks the most open contest in recent memory, with six entries I could make a realistic victory case for. I have run …

eurovoxpop.uk

1

10

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

7 months

🇬🇷 Marina Satti – 'Zari' (Ζάρι) 📊 60% of Greece's votes so far are coming from LGBTQ voters. Full demographic breakdown for Greece 🇬🇷 below #Eurovision #Eurovision2024 Vote in our poll here:

0

10

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

While we wait, these are the projected results of the second semi-final, based on the Italian televote: 1. 🇮🇱 Israel: 190 2. 🇳🇱 Netherlands: 173 3. 🇦🇲 Armenia: 122 4. 🇨🇭 Switzerland: 112 5. 🇬🇪 Georgia: 95 6. 🇬🇷 Greece: 80 7. 🇪🇪 Estonia: 70 8. 🇳🇴 Norway: 70 9. 🇦🇹 Austria: 64 10.

2

1

9

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

🇵🇹 Sublime. A monochrome staging concept could easily look boring but this looks beautiful on screen, making great use of the blocks. Would be a travesty if this doesn’t make it. #Eurovision

1

0

9

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

6 months

37th: 🇬🇪 Nutsa Buzaladze – 'Firefighter' 7 pts / 4 votes 36th: 🇸🇲 Megara – '11:11' 8 pts / 3 votes 35th: 🇨🇿 Aiko – 'Pedestal' 8 pts / 7 votes 34th: 🇮🇸 Hera Björk – 'Scared of Heights' 8 pts / 3 votes Full demographic breakdowns below #Eurovision #Eurovision2024 Vote here:

3

1

7

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

The model performed *very* well using the Italian televote result to guide it. SF2 top four was correct in the exact order. Actual semi-final two result: 1. 🇮🇱 Israel: 194 2. 🇳🇱 Netherlands: 182 3. 🇦🇲 Armenia: 137 4. 🇨🇭 Switzerland: 132

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

While we wait, these are the projected results of the second semi-final, based on the Italian televote: 1. 🇮🇱 Israel: 190 2. 🇳🇱 Netherlands: 173 3. 🇦🇲 Armenia: 122 4. 🇨🇭 Switzerland: 112 5. 🇬🇪 Georgia: 95 6. 🇬🇷 Greece: 80 7. 🇪🇪 Estonia: 70 8. 🇳🇴 Norway: 70 9. 🇦🇹 Austria: 64 10.

2

1

9

1

0

7

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

6 months

5th: 🇬🇷 Marina Satti – 'Zari' (Ζάρι) 151 pts / 128 votes Full demographic breakdowns below #Eurovision #Eurovision2024

2

8

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

6 months

Summary of standings so far (33 countries yet to reveal)

1

0

8

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

6 months

🇨🇭 Nemo – 'The Code' 📊 Over half of Switzerland's votes so far have come from voters aged 20–29. Full demographic breakdown for Switzerland 🇨🇭 below #Eurovision #Eurovision2024 Vote in our poll here:

0

6

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

7 months

Unweighted results of our 2024 poll so far (128 votes cast) 🇮🇹: 19 🇺🇦: 11 🇳🇱🇭🇷: 10 🇬🇷🇱🇹: 8 Weighted results published in a few weeks. Vote here:

0

1

7

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

7 months

Over 500 votes have now been cast in our #Eurovision2024 poll! 🇮🇹 Italy currently leads the unweighted results with 73 votes. Weighted results will be published in the coming weeks. 🚨 Please repost and share the survey with friends/family to help us get a more representative

1

7

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

6 months

Almost 850 votes have now been cast in our #Eurovision2024 poll. Can you give us a retweet and help us get to 1,000 by Friday? Unweighted results below; full weighted results published in the coming weeks #Eurovision Vote here:

0

3

6

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

This is what I wrote earlier in the week.

0

7

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

A reminder that Ukraine got 30% of the vote in the 2022 final from Italy. Israel would be on course for a landslide televote win if this is a) correct and b) replicated.

2

0

7

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

Sounds like Slimane has lost his voice somewhat. Not in fine form so far, regrettably. #Eurovision

1

0

7

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

7 months

Unweighted results of our #Eurovision2024 poll so far (307 votes cast) 🇮🇹: 43 🇬🇷: 29 🇺🇦: 27 🇳🇱: 24 🇭🇷🇨🇭: 22 Weighted results published in the coming weeks #Eurovision Vote here:

2

1

7

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

7 months

Over 750 votes have now been cast in our #Eurovision2024 poll! Roughly one-third of the votes so far are from the UK, so let's take a look at the unweighted results from UK voters... Vote here:

2

1

7

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

7 months

🇺🇦 Alyona Alyona and Jerry Heil – 'Teresa & Maria' 📊 A massive 51% of Ukraine's supporters picked 'Tattoo' 🇸🇪 as their favourite 2023 entry. Full demographic breakdown for Ukraine 🇺🇦 below #Eurovision #Eurovision2024 Vote in our poll here:

0

1

7

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

@TvtipsUk Looks realistic imo, I had them at an average of 5.3 pts from Italy.

0

6

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

7 months

🇭🇷 Baby Lasagna – 'Rim Tim Tagi Dim' 📊 30% of Croatia's votes so far are coming from voters whose favourite 2023 entry was 'Cha Cha Cha' 🇫🇮. Full demographic breakdown for Croatia 🇭🇷 below #Eurovision #Eurovision2024 Vote in our poll here:

0

6

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

6 months

Very close to 1,000 votes in our #Eurovision2024 poll! Once we reach that milestone, we'll release data on the top five songs for each age group. Unweighted results below; full weighted results published in the coming weeks #Eurovision 📣 Please retweet and share with

0

6

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

6 months

33rd: 🇦🇿 Fahree feat. Ilkin Dovlatov – 'Özünlə apar' 9 pts / 5 votes 32nd: 🇲🇹 Sarah Bonnici – 'Loop' 9 pts / 4 votes 31st: 🇵🇹 Iolanda – 'Grito' 10 pts / 10 votes 30th: 🇸🇮 Raiven – 'Veronika' 10 pts / 15 votes Full demographic breakdowns below #Eurovision #Eurovision2024

1

0

6

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

6 months

The weighted top 10, in alphabetical order: 🇦🇲 Armenia 🇧🇪 Belgium 🇭🇷 Croatia 🇫🇷 France 🇬🇷 Greece 🇮🇹 Italy 🇱🇹 Lithuania 🇳🇱 Netherlands 🇨🇭 Switzerland 🇺🇦 Ukraine

1

0

6

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

🇮🇪 Excellent — possibly the best staged Irish entry ever? Gothic feel and a narrative to the staging, with a costume reveal in the colours of the trans flag 🏳️‍⚧️. Almost hard to believe this is the same country as 2023. #Eurovision

1

5

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

7 months

Ever wondered which countries share the closest tastes at Eurovision? Wonder no more... Ireland 🇮🇪 and the UK 🇬🇧 top the list with a whopping 89% correlation between their televote preferences.

1

0

5

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

6 months

🚨 ANNOUNCEMENT: The first set of weighted results in our poll will be revealed next week! Get your last minute votes in here (or submit another response if you’ve changed your mind):

The 2024 Eurovoxpop poll

Welcome to the 2024 Eurovoxpop opinion poll. We want to know your favourite entries for Eurovision 2024, and we will use the responses to estimate televote scores for this year's contest. We ask...

docs.google.com

0

5

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

7 months

🚨 Voting in the Eurovoxpop 2024 poll is now OPEN 🚨 We will be posting regular updates of vote totals, with the first set of *weighted* results coming in a few weeks. Please vote for your favourite songs here (and share far and wide):

The 2024 Eurovoxpop poll

Welcome to the 2024 Eurovoxpop opinion poll. We want to know your favourite entries for Eurovision 2024, and we will use the responses to estimate televote scores for this year's contest. We ask...

docs.google.com

1

4

5

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

Just ran a quick 1,000 simulations of my model to calculate some qualification thresholds. For semi-final one, the point at which an entry surpasses a 50% qualification chance is 39.6 points. 20 pts: <1% qualification chance 30 pts: 9% 40 pts: 53% 50 pts: 93% 60 pts: >99%

1

0

4

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

7 months

Unweighted results of our #Eurovision2024 poll so far (434 votes cast) 🇮🇹: 52 🇬🇷: 42 🇭🇷: 39 🇺🇦: 33 🇨🇭: 31 Weighted results published in the coming weeks #Eurovision Vote here:

1

0

4

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

Most likely 12 points from each country's televote: Israel: 🇦🇱🇦🇲🇦🇿🇧🇪🇨🇿🇩🇰🇫🇷🇬🇪🇮🇹🇱🇻🇱🇹🇱🇺🇲🇩🇳🇱🇵🇹🇸🇲🇪🇸🇸🇪🇺🇦🌎 Croatia: 🇦🇺🇦🇹🇫🇮🇩🇪🇮🇱🇷🇸🇸🇮 Lithuania: 🇮🇪🇬🇧 Italy: 🇲🇹🇨🇭 Serbia: 🇭🇷 Greece: 🇨🇾 Finland: 🇪🇪 Cyprus: 🇬🇷 Germany: 🇮🇸 Sweden: 🇳🇴 Ukraine: 🇵🇱

3

0

3

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

🇨🇾 Silia quite exposed and shaky in the verses but comes alive more in the chorus. Staging still too dark, unfortunately. Decent start. #Eurovision

1

0

4

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

🇭🇷 Had a lot of buffering issues so hard to give a proper judgment, but vocals sound better with assistance. Lack of stage presence remains the issue. #Eurovision

1

4

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

7 months

Can we use stats to predict Melodifestivalen televote results? #Melfest #Melodifestivalen2024 New article 👇

A stats-based Melodifestivalen forecast

Sweden’s Melodifestivalen is a well-oiled machine, with a structured voting system that often leads the way among Eurovision national selections. With a plethora of data from the heats and th…

eurovoxpop.uk

0

4

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

6 months

In the semi-finals, performing last is as close to a golden ticket to the final as it's possible to get.

1

0

4

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

🇺🇦 Not sure how to feel about this one. Some very good bits of staging but feels like something is missing still. #Eurovision

2

0

4

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

6 months

4th: 🇧🇪 Mustii – 'Before the Party's Over' 177 pts / 76 votes Full demographic breakdowns below #Eurovision #Eurovision2024

1

0

3

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

6 months

After 1,365 votes, the result now comes down to two countries. 🇮🇹 Italy 🇨🇭 Switzerland Both songs received over 100 raw votes, and have scored over 200 weighted points. The winner will be revealed at 19:30 UTC (15 minutes' time)...

3

0

4

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

9/10 again in a difficult semi-final. Belgium were always much more borderline than many had predicted.

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

Semi-final 2 FINAL FORECAST #Eurovision #Eurovision2024

2

1

11

1

0

4

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

🇲🇩 Natalia Barbu is one of the strongest vocalists in the contest, I just wish she had better material to work with. Still a likely NQ. #Eurovision

2

0

4

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

6 months

Who's ready for the top 10? Results coming imminently...

1

0

4

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

7 months

💥 Melfest model predicted the televote top three in the correct order #Melodifestivalen

0

4

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

Final article is written. Just waiting for the simulations to complete and then I will finalise the graphics. Due to the unique circumstances this year, I will only be publishing average ranks for each country rather than win chances.

0

3

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

6 months

Current standings with just the top 10 left to reveal...

1

0

3

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

🇷🇸 Lots of wide shots here, not sure how much they work. Vocally quiet, but might be saving voice for tomorrow. #Eurovision

1

0

3

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

Portugal and Armenia were both successfully predicted to make the top 10, and five of the bottom six were correct. If you read today's preview article, you will see that Norway was also tipped as a possible last place.

0

3

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

6 months

With a solid showing among both casual viewers and Eurofans, the runner-up is... 🥈: 🇨🇭 Nemo – 'The Code' 208 pts / 108 votes Full demographic breakdowns below #Eurovision #Eurovision2024

1

0

3

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

6 months

The weighted top FIVE, in alphabetical order: 🇧🇪 Belgium 🇭🇷 Croatia 🇬🇷 Greece 🇮🇹 Italy 🇨🇭 Switzerland

7

0

3

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

🇸🇮 Vocally faultless but still looks too inaccessible to qualify. #Eurovision

1

0

3

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

Short write-up:

Semi-final 1 pre-rehearsal nowcast

Fifteen entries will compete in the first semi-final, with 1102 points to be distributed. As you may remember from the previous article, my forecasting model this year accounts for individual count…

eurovoxpop.uk

1

0

3

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

7 months

New article with initial predictions for songs 6–10 (🇱🇺🇲🇹🇳🇴🇪🇸🇺🇦).

Assessing the field: Part 2 — Luxembourg to Ukraine

Part two of this series covers the entries from Luxembourg (27 Jan) to Ukraine (4 Feb). Seven more songs have been released in the time since the last article, but we’ll catch up very soon, I…

eurovoxpop.uk

0

3

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

6 months

Käärijä had the best grand final performance relative to expectations out of 180 qualifying songs since 2014, going from an already-stellar 9.8 points per country in the semi-final to 10.2 PPC among a stronger field in the final.

0

3

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

7 months

We're currently looking for more responses from women and those in Eastern Europe. If you've got friends/family in either of those groups please share the survey — it would really help us get a representative sample.

0

2

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

🇬🇧 Ambitious staging, but vocals very shaky. #Eurovision

1

0

3

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

6 months

14th: 🇪🇪 5miinust and Puuluup – '(Nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi' 52 pts / 24 votes 13th: 🇸🇪 Marcus & Martinus – 'Unforgettable' 60 pts / 41 votes Full demographic breakdowns below #Eurovision #Eurovision2024 🗳️ You can still influence the final result by

1

3

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

Think France may have to say goodbye to the jury win after that. Slimane's vocals had been sounding tired recently and it looks like the constant strain finally caught up with him.

1

0

3

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

9/10

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

Semi-final 1 FINAL FORECAST #Eurovision #Eurovision2024

1

30

0

3

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

6 months

With strong support from voters 40+, the first podium place goes to... 🥉: 🇭🇷 Baby Lasagna – 'Rim Tim Tagi Dim' 191 pts / 104 votes Full demographic breakdowns below #Eurovision #Eurovision2024

1

0

3

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

🇸🇪 Vocals and staging flawless. Juries should reward nicely; risk remains of this feeling like an opening act rather than a competitive entry for the public. #Eurovision

1

0

2

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

6 months

6th: 🇱🇹 Silvester Belt – 'Luktelk' 139 pts / 77 votes Full demographic breakdowns below #Eurovision #Eurovision2024

1

0

2

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

Average rank from all jurors: 🇨🇭 3.59 🇫🇷 7.79 🇮🇹 8.50 🇭🇷 8.81 🇺🇦 9.33 🇸🇪 9.73 🇵🇹 9.91 🇩🇪 11.1 🇦🇲 11.5 🇱🇺 11.5 🇮🇪 12.0 🇬🇧 14.0 🇱🇹 14.3 🇬🇷 14.3 🇨🇾 14.6 🇮🇱 15.2 🇱🇻 15.5 🇷🇸 15.8 🇳🇴 16.0 🇦🇹 16.3 🇬🇪 16.4 🇪🇸 17.1 🇫🇮 17.6 🇸🇮 17.9 🇪🇪 19.1

0

2

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

Country-to-country points breakdown

1

0

2

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

7 months

We're particularly looking for more responses from Southern and Eastern Europe at the moment, so if you're in either of those regions, please share the survey with your local Eurovision communities!

0

1

2

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

6 months

Summary of standings so far (29 countries yet to reveal)

1

0

2

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

The estimated winning threshold is 527 points. This is the point at which an entry would have a >50% chance of winning. In 5,000 simulations, songs have won with as few as 348 points and lost with as many as 705.

0

2

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

Semi-final 2 final forecast coming shortly...

0

2

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

🇵🇱 Probably has done enough to qualify given countries voting here. Feels much lighter compared to what comes before. #Eurovision

1

0

2

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

🇮🇸 Hera Björk does what she can and can’t fault her vocally. Overall package just feels like a 🇬🇧 entry that finishes 25th, unfortunately. #Eurovision

1

0

2

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

🇦🇿 Doesn’t really work — whole thing just feels flat. #Eurovision

1

0

2

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

🇱🇹 Strong; feels like the real opener of the show. Audience clapping along and impressive staging that suits the big arena. #Eurovision

1

0

2

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

8 months

In the coming months, I'll therefore be launching the inaugural Eurovoxpop Poll, which will be a survey asking people how they would use a hypothetical five votes if the contest were held right now, while also asking a variety of demographic questions.

1

0

2

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

8 months

📰 New article with initial predictions on the current crop of songs (part one: 🇫🇷 to 🇮🇪)

Assessing the field: Part 1 — France to Ireland

13 entries have now been selected and released for this year’s contest. In this series of articles, I am going to give my initial predictions on the competitiveness of each, with an assessmen…

eurovoxpop.uk

0

2

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

Semi-final 1 country-to-country points breakdown

0

2

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

6 months

18th: 🇷🇸 Teya Dora – 'Ramonda' 27 pts / 23 votes 17th: 🇩🇰 Saba – 'Sand' 32 pts / 19 votes Full demographic breakdowns below #Eurovision #Eurovision2024 🗳️ You can still influence the final result by voting here:

1

0

1

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

8 months

This project will serve a double purpose. It will be a place for stats-based Eurovision analysis and predictions, alongside a crucial second element which (I'm 99% sure) is new to the Eurovision space.

1

0

1

Eurovoxpop

@eurovoxpop

5 months

However, it looks like that Italian televote result *was* in fact incomplete. Israel and Netherlands remained the top two, but Albania only received 4 points instead of 8.

0

1