Ethan Flynn, CPA @ethanflynncpa Twitter profile

Pinned Tweet

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

3 months

When people ask if the migration can continue.

12

4

33

Last Seen Profiles

@JerkyXP

@DomNTheCity

@mondo_demon

@Mayhawwoman

@the_real_liso_

@Swarley

@ScufGaming

@stefanushendy98

@aj_sooyaaa

@lpo_on

@hmtr__113

@avocadodabelich

@Tante_Binal69

@lazeemahmeed

@dala3_halasa

@Rengongmeng

@CHS_Basketball2

@TheRecord_Media

@ZMNN7

@MasterJohn04

@jandakembangstw

@sugkeos

@cristodgh

@stw_pdg

@skrapzg

@CastOfC13

@matthewandpaul

@B3nyzinha

@steinerla

@MonyPich2

@mmmar_tread

@Foxeuropetoken

@VmaniakJ

@elzasoprano

@saltinesnack

@datyouyuu

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

So here's the problem with Nashville real estate in a nutshell. This is the Adelicia. Taylor Swift lives here. A 1 Bed 1 Bath condo 1000sqft just rented for $2,800/mo (smaller units rent for $2K/mo). That same floor plan most recent sale in Feb was $640K. With 20% down

371

81

1K

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

10 months

Nashville's luxury apartments Alcove and sister building Prime (700 units) have $186M construction loan. Just doing simple math here but $186M at 8% = $15M interest/year. That's roughly $1,800/mo per unit interest expense. Just interest payments. Am I missing something?

97

48

621

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

3 months

The Multifamily crash is here in Nashville: GVA just sold a property they bought less than 18 months ago for a ~$23M loss. They sold the property for $52M down from $75M they purchased it for in Dec 2022 a ~30% loss in value but a 100% loss in equity as price was lower than

47

71

367

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

5 months

Massive cash bleeding at Nashville's most expensive multifamily purchase of 2021. Adam Neumann's new start up Flow bought 2010 West End in Nashville for $158M on $118M floating rate debt. They bought a rate cap that limited the interest on the debt to ~6% (would be 8.5%) but

35

52

335

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

4 months

Listings are about to explode. Talked to an old neighbor. Houses on both sides of him are going on the market and another a few doors down. If this is happening everywhere we are about to see all the houses that didn’t list last year come online.

104

20

318

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

4 months

I talked to several buyers this week. They all have large down payments 20%+ but don't have the income to support the mortgage payment that comes with it.

85

18

302

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

1 month

Nashville Airbnbs for sale have quadrupled in the last 12 months. Someone help me understand what's going on? I have a buyer that wants to buy one and I don't know anything about Airbnbs.

74

45

287

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

1 month

I'm forecasting Nashville home prices are about to drop 5-6% over the next 60 days. Why? Because price cuts are rapidly rising and so are concessions. When you invert the axis and overlay against median price, it appears that it's already happening. Even as we sit at a record

23

26

136

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

3 months

Why are low offers offensive? Helped a buyer put a $1.1M offer on a $1.5M townhouse listing. Put a data driven explanation: - 18 months supply of inventory - 50% yoy growth in active listings Seller won’t even look at it.

173

5

131

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

@LandlordWayne I like this

5

0

114

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

8 days

Why is it so much more expensive to rent a Uhaul from LA to Nashville? Almost double. Wow.

111

14

114

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

For all the people saying rent just grows (I was in this category 15 min ago). I was shocked when I saw this. Here's 2014 rents.

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

@MARK3T5 @sir_pog It's worse than I thought.

1

0

4

5

110

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

Active listings going vertical in greater Nashville. Very very exciting. We have already gained 184 listings this week and will likely break through 200 by the end of the day. Very close to last year's November high of 6,458. Contract volume also down 8% YoY.

16

14

101

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

@Analyst_G I see inflation 😭

7

0

97

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

1 month

Is the Airbnb bust finally hitting Nashville? Just searched NOO-STR (non owner occupied short term rental) 73 Active listings. 4 under contract. 4 Closed in the last month. We have an 18 month supply. I know very little about short term rental. Is this supposed to

9

19

84

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

@TheRealBeeks False

5

0

84

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

4 months

Buyer broker commissions are dropping fast in Williamson County. This new listing is offering the lowest I've seen at 2% commission. Do you think it will impact its ability to sell? Maybe it's a typo? Imagine getting paid $25,600 instead of the usual $38,400. Quite the

68

8

84

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

3 days

For those tracking Nashville home prices. We've already dropped $20K from peak this year. 38% of active listings have cut their price. That's a 300bp swing in three weeks. Very rapid. This is what you would expect to see if you were going to get YoY Negative price growth.

13

16

96

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

3 months

Inventory is building rapidly in parts of TN. Curious what's going on in Knox and Sevier County?

25

16

70

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

10 months

@NewsLambert Nashville: More inventory = reached a new high in active listings today. Lower contract volume. Prices are dropping. September could be down 1.5% for greater nashville median price.

5

63

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

Wow. Redfin weekly data showing some major warning signs for Sevierville, Tn. (Pigeon Forge / Gatlinburg) Price Drops are more than double any year going back to 2017. Active Listings: +16% YoY higher than same week in 2022 (previous Week 19 high going back to 2017)

13

9

54

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

4 days

When people say real estate is local. It sure is. YoY Demand is up in Chattanooga, Knoxville and Northeast Tn. Pretty wild. Memphis, Nashville, and Gatlinburg are cold. Why are some TN counties up so much while others are dropping?

18

14

53

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

10 months

Massive rent price drops in downtown Nashville: Here's Harlowe last week vs this week. (1/3)

7

4

51

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

6 days

Are we about to see the High Rise Condo market collapse in Nashville? We have 11 times the number of Active Listings compared to closed transactions in the last month. Last year at this time it was 4. The year before that it was less than 2. This is both a supply story as

7

10

44

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

3 months

@GRomePow If they stopped student loans tuition would drop 70%

1

3

39

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

3 months

Active Listings grew 5% last week in Nashville. In one week. (Davidson County, Tn) If they do that again this week, we will blow past the November high of last year and we will have more active listings than we did Pre-Covid. I've reached out to Realtracs as they don't provide

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

4 months

Hitting a new active listing high on a Wednesday is rare. Is this an early spring, or a listing explosion? Saturdays are when listings peak each week. So far this is only happening in Davidson County about 40% of Greater Nashville's market.

2

9

10

7

39

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

3 months

Anybody know if it's common to have a plumber file a $1,061 lien on a $35M multifamily property? Is this turn the lights off bad? or is this business as usual? GVA owned 1818 Church St. Downtown Nashville.

19

4

32

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

@siav2022 Most likely scenario. IMO ☝️

3

0

30

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

6 days

@TripleNetInvest FWIW this company turned a profit because it defaulted on its debt and had to recognize debt relief as income. I’m not sure I would call it a turn around. Maybe time will prove me wrong.

3

1

31

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

@PeacheyBlake Makes no sense.

4

0

29

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

5 months

@ds_314159 It’s amazing to me. My hypothesis is people value smooth talk and confidence over actual ability. The fed fuels it with free money. 🤷‍♂️.

2

0

25

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

One of the most fascinating charts I've created. The correlation of Price Cuts to additional Concessions is almost 1 to 1 in Nashville. When Sellers cut their price, they will cut it again to get it sold. And the fascinating part is that the orange line Price Cuts was

6

7

27

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

Buyer broker commissions making a new low in Williamson County. Now seeing a 1.5% commission. Are buyer agent commissions going to disappear? What about if we go into a buyers market as some of the leading indicators suggest? Is this common in other markets?

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

4 months

Buyer broker commissions are dropping fast in Williamson County. This new listing is offering the lowest I've seen at 2% commission. Do you think it will impact its ability to sell? Maybe it's a typo? Imagine getting paid $25,600 instead of the usual $38,400. Quite the

68

8

84

15

6

26

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

5 months

Nashville's Most Expensive Multifamily Disaster

Exploring the commercial real estate crash in Nashville. Empty office buildings and apartments are leaving owners in a lurch. But it’s who owns them that’s r...

www.youtube.com

2

4

25

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

Looks to me like Nashville prices have peaked for the year. The gap between contract price and sales price is starting to break. This is likely due to price concessions in the contract. What do you think, have we peaked?

5

4

24

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

3 months

Active Listings going vertical in Davidson County (Nashville Core) Just flipping through the new listings, large portion are existing resale homes. This is very exciting. Davidson could be a buyers market very soon. For context: 1) Price drops are at 32.5% (Altos says values

6

23

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

@krisinhawaii Pay $2 to save $1 in tax. Sounds like a tech startup. I don’t think the math works for these. That’s why I called it out.

2

0

23

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

Monthly change in Active Listings for the south east. Interesting that inventory is starting to moderate in FL esp where the growth was the highest on the gulf side. Curious if anyone has a perspective. I'm hearing it's seasonal. What is going on in Huntsville, Alabama?

3

23

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

Last month I met with a client who wanted to list their house for rent. I told them based on market and historicals we could get ~$4K/mo. Fast forward 6 weeks, we are getting ready to list, and we are leaning toward $4,650. My jaw is on the floor. I think the migration to

8

2

20

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

@kaiyabunga Data doesn’t suggest any premium.

0

20

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

16 days

Nashville just had it’s largest net increase in price cuts since Jan 3, 2023.

2

1

19

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

8 months

@NewsLambert Not seeing any major response in Nashville. Last year when rates dropped, buyers didn’t respond until they stabilized and started rising again.

1

0

19

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

@RMSGarey It is for me lol. But people pay it 🤷‍♂️

3

0

17

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

3 months

Massive build in Florida Active Listings. +52K Active Listings vs last year. 30% of the YoY increase in Active Listings nationally are coming from FL. Broward County alone increased 5,716 a 85% YoY increase. Right now, FL inventory is lower than 2019 levels, but when you

4

3

18

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

3 months

Wowzers. I didn't see this coming. Median under contract price is $1,092,000 in Williamson County. Very likely we break $1M for April close. The median price for Williamson County, Tn is over $1M. I can say this different ways. I still can't believe it.

4

3

18

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

5 months

Fallyn opened in July of 2022. According to CoStar they have 347 Units. On Zillow they are advertising 94 right now. The struggle to lease up above 70% is real as more apartments coming online every day. Fallyn - Oct 2022 - Base Rent $2,030 - 1 month free - effective

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

5 months

Everything seems peachy but none of the math works. The current state of Nashville Multifamily with no recession: Alcove -> 2021 $180M Construction Loan - 75% occupied Modera -> 2020 $83M Construction Loan - 65% occupied 1818 Church - Watchlisted Imminent Default - $26.7M

1

5

14

4

3

17

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

18 days

For those of you who want to follow along. Absolutely wild to see price cuts as a predictor. I posted this two weeks ago and median price has already dropped 3%. But it's the drops coming in the next few weeks that will make headlines. I'm forecasting Greater Nashville

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

1 month

I'm forecasting Nashville home prices are about to drop 5-6% over the next 60 days. Why? Because price cuts are rapidly rising and so are concessions. When you invert the axis and overlay against median price, it appears that it's already happening. Even as we sit at a record

23

26

136

2

1

17

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

4 months

@Solwoldjr74 I disagree for Nashville. Lower rates would increase prices and reduce supply. We need more houses.

4

0

17

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

3 months

@GRomePow Less math more emotion in Residential RE. I’m not even sure how many math people are in CRE 😂

1

0

16

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

10 months

@mobloy I assumed construction was low but that they would have to refi into higher rates. This makes sense. Is 6% realistic with a 10/yr at 4.5%?

1

16

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

@NewsLambert Texts I’ve received in the last 24 hours. Franklin Tn. For a $650K house: “Sold that house in my neighborhood in 6 hours….. for $30k over asking….😂” For a $1M house: “Just watched your Saturday video. Definitely soft here. [redacted] has been on the mkt for a while.

2

0

15

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

Reminder. Pre-pandemic inventory without pre-pandemic demand is a major red flag.

ResiClub

@ResidentialClub

2 months

Texas is officially back above pre-pandemic inventory levels—AZ, FL, and ID are close behind

11

49

177

1

5

15

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

7 months

@GRomePow To quote the late great Charlie Munger “If you’re not a little confused about what’s going on, you don’t understand it” I would say with $8T in printing. $6T in money markets. None of us really know what happens next. It’s like saying the dollar will be worthless but house

2

1

12

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

Redfin's weekly change in Active Listings. Top 20 metros. A few Observations: 1) Denver is looking High Risk IMO. Lots of inventory growth with stagnant pending sales. That means sellers are selling into lack luster demand. Not a good sign. Anybody in Denver have an

8

5

15

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

3 months

For more context: Nashville Apartment Crash is here.

Nashville Apartment Crash is HERE!

Exploring the commercial real estate crash in Nashville. Empty office buildings and apartments are leaving owners in a lurch. But it’s who owns them that’s r...

www.youtube.com

3

1

15

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

6 months

@0xMakesy Wow. Fascinating take. I wonder if this is happening with Single Family real estate too. Maybe Airbnb is helping mask stress in the housing market? Nashville listings are up 19% in the last 12 months while revenue per listing is down.

4

1

15

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

20 days

The median contract price is YoY lower for the first time this year for Nashville Single Family Houses. Given where price cuts are, I fully expect this to keep dropping. Add to the fact $1M demand has been up while lower priced housing has been down, and you can see that

1

4

13

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

5 months

Everything seems peachy but none of the math works. The current state of Nashville Multifamily with no recession: Alcove -> 2021 $180M Construction Loan - 75% occupied Modera -> 2020 $83M Construction Loan - 65% occupied 1818 Church - Watchlisted Imminent Default - $26.7M

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

5 months

There’s a LOT written about Multifamily supply CONSTRAINTS kicking in after 2026, post deluge this year & next. FEW consider recession & FEWER contextualize onslaught compared to existing stock. Note future supply v last 12 months on @JBREC chart. THAT’S where things get messy.

11

19

79

1

5

14

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

Fascinating to me that demand for resale homes under $700K is tanking. Back to back years of double digit drop in demand. While Nashville contract volume is down slightly, it's drop can entirely be attributed to the under $700K and particularly the resale market. Active

2

14

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

I’ve lived in multiple neighborhoods in Nashville/Franklin and I think it’s one of the draws to the city. Neighbors introduce each other. Invite each other over. Share meals. Watch out for each other. I actually think much of Tennessee is like that. People always talk about

2

0

14

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

9 months

Moody's Analytics released a shocker of a report on CMBS defaults. Two Highlights: 1) 90% of maturing Office Loans Defaulted 2) A profitable Multifamily on track for a 50% NOI increase defaulted.

0

3

14

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

@bargles Great dynamic for renters. The problem is people don’t like renting but the cost to buy is insane. They feel locked out while they watch their peers making less money than them have a lower payment for nicer properties because they were able to take advantage of the largest

4

0

12

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

8 days

@NotEvenVoid I think migration is still full speed. People are saying it’s slowing but I can’t find any data suggesting that.

2

1

13

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

10 months

Nashville home prices drop -1.7% in September. Source: Greater Nashville Realtors

0

13

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

@GRomePow Isn’t social security a net seller of bonds now? I wonder if it’s taking losses like SVB? Yes it is a net seller. Started selling in 2021. I answered my own question.

2

13

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

4 months

+Temporary rate buy downs. This 2022 WSJ article is aging well. “Carley Chase found her dream home in Chandler, Ariz. Soaring interest rates threatened to put it out of reach. Her lender suggested a temporary buydown that would lower her mortgage payment for the first three

Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

4 months

What makes this even crazier, Since 2020: 19% of all housing units in Maricopa had a Cash out Refinance. That "equity" has been pulled already. And 27% of housing units since 2018 have had a Cash out Refinance. As @JohnWake mentioned earlier today, pricing power is gone. 3/5

2

5

14

4

12

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

6 months

Active Listings are up 7% in Williamson County, Tn (Nashville's most expensive market). The big driver -> new builds. What makes this more interesting is YoY contract volume is down 12%. Even as there are more listings, there are fewer contracts. A bearish indicator to

3

12

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

9 months

@NewsLambert Nashville. Actually seeing median price go up. Hard to make sense of it. Wondering if it’s mix of houses. I don’t know yet.

4

0

12

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

9 days

Double price cuts. This is a map of listings that cut their price again this week after they've already cut it previously. I wonder if there's a correlation with motivation and a second price cut? Would they take even more off or are they getting closer to their bottom

1

12

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

6 months

@NewsLambert Nashville Jan close volume is up ~6% but contract volume for Feb is slower than last year. Prices ended January up 2% at $460K vs last year $450K. Hard to get a read on this market. December was stronger than last year but the momentum is slowing as we head into Feb.

0

12

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

3 months

Amazing how interest rates impact groups differently. Listings under $700K have lower demand than they did 2 years ago, while listings over $1M are much higher.

2

1

12

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

5 months

The trend continues for Active Listings in Davidson County. Tomorrow is typically when listings peak for the week. If we get a bigger bump, that could signal accelerating active listing growth. Very exciting.

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

5 months

The trend continues. Davidson County active listings is single handedly distorting the trend for all SFH in Greater Nashville now YoY positive. Why is Davidson County so different? @JohnWake you are seeing similar pattern but you said driver could be luxury areas? Could

3

1

5

2

1

12

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

@GRomePow Peter Schiff makes a really compelling argument about deflation being good.

4

1

11

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

8 months

What happens when the renters find out that the sub 3% mortgages that locked them out of ownership are government handouts that we have to pay for with taxes?

Pro Take: Fed Operating Losses Are Piling Up Amid Higher Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve is paying out more in interest than it is getting on many securities it owns.

www.wsj.com

Steve Harney

@SteveHarney

8 months

One of the main reasons I believe in the benefits of homeownership. Just saying…

113

51

234

2

3

10

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

6 months

@Campbell4TN How would vouchers kill public education?

2

0

11

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

3 months

@1RentalataTime Yeah. I think we are going to have to play the long game on this one.

0

11

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

3 months

@doccrypto777 Why not counter high and call every person that’s viewed and tell them you’re working an offer? Seems like a missed opportunity.

5

0

11

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

4 months

@nebraskabryce Agree. But could you put my experience on a bell curve? How many of these conversations are happening? Based on what I’m reading/seeing new listings will skyrocket, however demand is not waning at 7% rates. So is it just more transactions or massive inventory build?

2

0

11

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

@NewsLambert Brutal. I hope they make it. They’ve always been one of my favorite companies. I’m a Glenm Kelman fan.

0

11

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

10 months

The bizarre part about this is we are at a 5 year high in Nashville and 25% have a list price of $1M or higher. I'm still trying to wrap my head around that. Active listings: 2,018 $1M+ Active Listings: 508

Melody Wright

@m3_melody

10 months

@AdvisorJohn Nashville inventory (listings for sale) is up on a net basis by 3% since Jan and their listings for long-term rental are up 10% this week to the average.

0

2

4

0

10

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

4 months

@ianbadillo_ I personally disagree with buying down rate. Obviously there are times it might be useful but as a general rue seems very expensive.

8

0

10

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

11 months

I found all of the listings the average person can buy within a 30 min drive to Nashville using Dave Ramsey's home buying guide... There are two. 😂😭 Stay strong people - most should not be buying in this market. Rent is dropping. Just rent.

2

1

11

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

4 months

@DanSanchezRE Yes. Every single buyer no matter what the price range seems to want the next higher range. I see this from 300K to $2M. Human nature.

1

9

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

4 months

@AdvisorJohn Yeah it's wild. I don't either.

2

0

8

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

8 months

@NewsLambert Nashville core (Davidson County) active listings heading towards a 5 year high. Meanwhile, Inventory is tighter in the suburbs. Williamson County (Franklin Tn) active listings flat. But if you take out $1M listings it's down 25% from last year. There is a huge migration

1

0

9

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

Based on Redfin data it appears that listing growth is moderating. Tampa Active Listings have been dropping for the past two weeks. Kind of a surprise trend and opposite of what was happening in 2022. New Listings appear to be going back to 2023 levels. Pending Sales remain

ResiClub

@ResidentialClub

2 months

12 of Florida's 28 major housing markets have exceeded pre-pandemic inventory levels Tampa, Cape Coral, North Port, Orlando, Homosassa Springs, and Port St. Lucie are VERY close to doing so

12

28

71

2

1

10

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

4 months

The Nashville housing market feels much hotter than last year at this time. Given that contract volume is relatively flat, how could the housing market be hotter? I was trying to figure a way to quantify what I was feeling. Came up with two charts: 1) Multiple offers in

5

2

10

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

9 months

@m3_melody Yes. They are smart money. They borrowed from a CMBS in our 401Ks. The equity is likely managed in our pensions/401Ks. They will default and buy it back from a crash fund they raised money for. They get paid no matter what. We lose.

2

0

6

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

3 months

FWIW there's never been more demand for $1M+ houses in Nashville. They’re extremely profitable, which means supply has been strong too.

2

9

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

6 months

@afquillen @Campbell4TN I don’t understand. You are saying that this program won’t be available to lower income families?

4

0

9

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

4 months

The best chart I've ever created. Daily reaction to mortgage rate changes. I've been watching this for 2 years and here's my conclusion: It's a bit counterintuitive, but buyers jump in when rates rise and slow down as rates fall. Buyers check out when a new rate high

2

1

9

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

Wow. 0% commission offered to buyer agent but seller offering concessions. Will buyers use concessions to pay for representation?

Austin Whitt

@AustinWhittRE

2 months

First and foremost, a shoutout to my sellers for braving a new process. As far as I can see, they are one of the first sellers in Middle TN to embrace the local MLS rollout of the NAR proposed settlement changes. Pioneers!! They are offering a $49,500 concession which can be

6

4

29

4

0

9

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

4 months

Under contract in 1 day. Why pay 3% if 2% works?

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

4 months

Buyer broker commissions are dropping fast in Williamson County. This new listing is offering the lowest I've seen at 2% commission. Do you think it will impact its ability to sell? Maybe it's a typo? Imagine getting paid $25,600 instead of the usual $38,400. Quite the

68

8

84

2

0

9

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

4 months

Hitting a new active listing high on a Wednesday is rare. Is this an early spring, or a listing explosion? Saturdays are when listings peak each week. So far this is only happening in Davidson County about 40% of Greater Nashville's market.

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

5 months

The trend continues for Active Listings in Davidson County. Tomorrow is typically when listings peak for the week. If we get a bigger bump, that could signal accelerating active listing growth. Very exciting.

2

1

12

2

9

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

1 month

@IntentionalEric Maybe. I’m not even sure how bad it is. A lot of these trade off market after being listed. Owners will sell LLC and the listing expires. Some of the questions I have. Are sellers holding the line? Is their distress? Forced selling? Which Airbnbs are performing which are

6

0

9

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

2 months

If you don't think one syndicator (GVA) can crash Nashville's multifamily market, help me understand this: So far this year, only 8 Multifamily properties have sold in Nashville's CoStar market. (100+ Units) Of the 8 that have sold, GVA was the seller of 5 of them. One

2

9

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

7 months

Someone just dumped their condo in Berry Farms. Bought it last year for $770K just sold it for $690K.

2

0

7

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

6 months

YoY Contract Volume Down 12% Now. This is bearish. Also worth noting that listings under $1M are also down 2% YoY. So there's less to choose from for the vast majority of buyers in Nashville. Anecdotally there's a lot of 💩💩 on the market for $500K. Not sure how to

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

6 months

Well that didn't take long. Now YoY negative. We know a major driver is the massive snow storm but could there be underlying weakness too? What do you think?

1

2

3

2

1

9

Ethan Flynn, CPA

@ethanflynncpa

7 months

@BuilderMonk Got my buyer a 2.875% mortgage and closed in 35 days. Not advertised not in contract. Seller happened to have an FHA loan and we went to work.

4

1

8