Econometrica @ecmaEditors Twitter profile

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

2 years

Inequality has risen sharply in the US since the 1980s. This article shows that about 50% of the observed changes in the wage structure are due to the effects of automation technologies on workers with low levels of schooling

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1K

Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

New estimates of TV advertising effectiveness across 288 CPG brands show that advertising generally has little effect on sales and most brands earn a negative ROI. The results cast doubt on the sustainability of financing TV content markets with ad revenue

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

2 years

Evidence from Peru shows that when the return to illegal activities increases in coca suitable areas, parents increase the use of child labor for coca farming, putting children on a criminal life path

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

2 years

Mandatory warning labels on food products are a popular policy to combat obesity—but are they effective? @NanoBarahona @cristobalotero and @seb_otero show that labels induce consumers to buy healthier options and prompt firms to use healthier ingredients.

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

Do you teach that least squares is BLUE? News flash: It is BUE (best unbiased)! This paper extends the Gauss-Markov Theorem, dropping the restriction to linear estimators, establishing a new finite sample variance lower bound for unbiased linear regression

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

The co-editors have temporarily hijacked this account, facilitated by the journal manager, who joins them in sending huge CONGRATULATIONS to Guido, Editor and NOBEL laureate!!!

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

4 years

Why is productivity greater in more competitive markets? Does competition make all firms more productive or does it make unproductive firms shut down? New tests and data from the ready-mix concrete industry support the first channel.

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

2 years

Women are under-represented in economics. Are they also under-recognized for their contributions? We study gender gaps in recognition for top honors, e.g., Econometric Society fellows, controlling for pubs and cites, going back 70+ years. Read on

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

10 months

A widely held view is that wealth inequality increases with r-g. We show the opposite is true in a model with entrepreneurs. The idea: lower rates benefit entrepreneurs who use external financing to grow their firms. We quantify this effect w/microdata

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

2 years

The recently laid off commit more crimes! Not just property crime, but also violence, drug use, and traffic violations...unemployment benefits temporarily prevent crimes, but only while they are being cashed in @DiogoBrittoBr @paolopinotti78 @Brenorsampaio

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

1 year

This paper presents a method for using empirical evidence on the effects of policy shocks to construct counterfactuals following changes in policy rules, without violating the Lucas critique @ChristianKWolf @AlisdairMcKay

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

Congratulations to former coeditor David Card, former associate editor Josh Angrist and current editor Guido Imbens for sharing the 2021 #NobelPrize in economics

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

4 years

The American Frontier shaped a culture of rugged individualism. It attracted individualistic types and made settlers more individualistic over time; its effects persist today as more exposed counties show greater opposition to government

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

2 years

How do cash transfers affect aggregate economic activity? A large-scale clustered RCT in rural Kenya shows the benefits of cash spill over to non-recipients through higher wages and revenue with minimal price inflation. The local transfer multiplier is 2.5

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

1 year

Many developing economies are growing fast with limited industrialization. Service-led growth or mere income effects? We provide a novel methodology to structurally estimate productivity in service industries using micro data and an application to India

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

2 years

The benefits of new technologies accrue not only to high-skilled labor but also to owners of capital in the form of higher capital incomes. @ben_moll @LukaszRachel & Pascual Restrepo show how this has increased income and wealth inequality since the 1980s

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

Can we test for p-hacking based on distributions of p-values across papers? We clarify what the set of distributions looks like without p-hacking and derive novel testable implications. We propose more powerful tests for p-hacking

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

4 years

How much do workers learn from their coworkers? We show that learning from colleagues, particularly the more knowledgeable ones, is significant. At the bottom decile of the knowledge distribution workers receive as much as 16% of their compensation in the form of knowledge

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

Do managers matter in the public sector? Italian administrative data suggests they do. More talented managers increase office productivity by inducing older workers to retire

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

What are the long-run effects of very low interest rates? @ErnestLiuEcon @AtifRMian and @profsufi show that persistently low rates disproportionately favor industry leaders, leading to lower market competition and a slowdown in productivity growth

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

4 years

Bad news: Unlike linear models, quantile regression is biased when there’s measurement error in the dependent variable. Good news: the bias can be corrected with a sieve maximum likelihood estimator

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

Say we have many X’s to predict Y. Should we hunt for the single model with the few most powerful predictors? Not really, because model uncertainty is pervasive in economics. Taking this uncertainty into account improves predictions and scientific reporting

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

Immigrant students often enroll in lower educational tracks than native students with similar ability, but encouraging them to reflect on their own aspirations goes a long way towards reducing educational segregation

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

5 months

ECMA is happy to announce the 2024 Frisch Medal has been awarded to Dennis Egger, Johannes Haushofer, Edward Miguel, Paul Niehaus, & Michael Walker for their outstanding paper: General equilibrium effects of cash transfers: experimental evidence from Kenya

Frisch Medal Award

www.econometricsociety.org

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

There is a broad consensus that Monetary Economics can be done without “M” (i.e., omitting the demand and supply of money). We show this folk wisdom only holds for a more limited set of environments than previously recognized. @oo7zsx @Lagos_R_

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

2 years

Why is job-loss so costly? When workers climb a job ladder with slippery bottom rungs, then job loss begets job loss. This generates an unemployment scar.

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

2 years

This paper studies the role of large private sector companies in the development of local amenities. The United Fruit Company had a positive effect on living standards as labor market competition induced the firm to invest in amenities. @DianaVanPatten

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

4 years

Hello #Econtwitter , this is the official handle of the editors of Econometrica. Follow us for info about the journal and forthcoming papers.

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

The plumbing of monetary policy matters for macro. We develop a model of the transmission and implementation of monetary policy and show that how a central bank implements the target for the interbank market rate affects credit and economic activity

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

11 months

Instruments or treatments constructed from multiple sources of variation, only some of which arise from a true or natural experiment, require “recentering” to avoid omitted variable bias. New from @borusyak and @instrumenthull

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

People learn from their neighbors before choosing whether to adopt an innovation. How does the speed of learning and adoption depend on network architecture (e.g. connectivity, clustering)? We build a tractable Bayesian model to answer these questions

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

2 years

How do political connections affect firm dynamics, innovation and creative destruction? @ufukakcigit @BaslandzeSalome @FrancescaLotti6 use Italian data & show that market leaders are disproportionately more politically connected and less innovate.

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

The following Econometrica articles by this year's @NobelPrize winners Joshua Angrist @metrics52 , David Card, and Guido W. Imbens are freely accessible for a limited time

Content

www.econometricsociety.org

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

1 year

Econometrica Volume 91, Issue 3 (May 2023) is now online

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

2 years

This paper identifies new regularities in the organization of the Chinese regime. They are not only useful for understanding the political economy of China, but also to generate counterfactuals on what may happen when power concentrates in a single faction

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

2 years

Spatial correlation complicates inference. Here we provide theory and methods for spatial-correlation-robust inference in regression and GMM models

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

1 year

Are there simple, welfare-improving alternatives to the existing US tax-transfer system, preferred by a majority of households? @NezihGuner @RemziKaygusuz and @King_ofSweden address this question in a general equilibrium macro model with rich heterogeneity

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

2 years

I prove an envelope theorem with a converse: the envelope formula is 𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑡 to a first-order condition. Like Milgrom and Segal's (2002) envelope theorem, my result requires no structure on the choice set. I apply it to mechanism design

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

1 year

Shocks to industries can affect the entire economy. What makes an industry systemically risky is not its size, but whether the rest of the economy depends on it. Electricity and restaurants are similar in size, but vastly different in systemic risk

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

How do local price indexes vary differently for the rich and the poor? Higher-income cities and neighborhoods are relatively cheap for the rich, in spite of high unit prices, because chains offering high-quality products are more likely to operate there

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

How should we design corporate taxes and R&D policies to foster innovation? New paper by @ufukakcigit @iamlemec & @S_Stantcheva studies design of innovation policies when the government lacks information on firms' productivity & innovation has spillovers

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

2 years

Congratulations to Giulia Brancaccio, Myrto Kalouptsidi and Theodore Papageorgiou, winners of the #FrischMedal for "Geography, Transportation, and Endogenous Trade Costs”, Econometrica, Vol. 88, No. 2, March 2020, pp. 657-691. Free for a limited time

Geography, Transportation, and Endogenous Trade Costs - The Econometric Society

www.econometricsociety.org

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307

Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

2 years

This paper by @jondr44 and @pedrohcgs shows that parallel trends holds for all functional forms of the outcome (eg levels, logs, percentiles) if and only if you have "PT of distributions". They also show this is testable and characterize when it can arise

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

2 years

After WW2, 8m ethnic Germans were expelled from their homes in Eastern Europe and transferred to Germany. Their settlement increased long-run productivity in the receiving counties. The results are quantitatively in line with a spatial model of growth.

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

4 months

Workers in Mexico City reduce labor supply on high-pollution days and compensate by increasing working hours on subsequent days. Responses are stronger for richer workers and provide evidence of unequal avoidance behavior, Bridget Hoffmann & @juanpablorud

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303

Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

1 year

Using a new survey of firms in New Zealand, we study how exogenous variation (RCT) in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by firms affects their decisions. As firms become more uncertain, they reduce their prices, employment, and investment in capital and technologies.

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

4 months

The value of federal government debt in the U.S. exceeds its fiscal capacity, the expected present discounted value of future primary surpluses. Resolving this puzzle requires violations of transversality, a likely major fiscal correction, or mispricing

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

2 years

How do small firms in low income countries manage to adopt technology? Even if each firm is too small to buy large machines, a thick rental market allows them to achieve scale collectively and mechanize production @PorzioTommaso @bassi_vittorio @RitwikaSen

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

4 years

Can econometrics be used to fight employment discrimination? Analysis of resume correspondence experiments reveals that most jobs discriminate little, but a few discriminate heavily. Sending ten resumes per job enables reliable detection of discriminators

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287

Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

11 months

Time series and cross-sectional (eg. synthetic controls) approaches in panel data yield identical point estimates for several standard estimators. However, each approach's assumed source of randomness leads to distinct estimands and uncertainties

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282

Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

1 year

Corporate tax cuts in both the US & OECD countries have caused a significant decline in manufacturing labor shares, Baris Kaymak and @ImmoSchott find. Lower corporate tax rates reduce the labor share by raising the market share of capital-intensive firms

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

2 years

Politics and markets are intertwined. Our model studies this circularity and shows how it induces not only market concentration but also technological stagnation. Lower competitive pressure can lead to better market outcomes. @DFoarta @takuo_sugaya

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

Are you a team player? We can find out, using a method we developed for measuring individual contributions to group performance

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275

Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

An agent’s location acts like an asset with intertemporal costs and benefits. Financially constrained individuals use it smooth consumption. After negative income shocks they can “borrow” by moving to cheaper locations with fewer future opportunities

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

20 days

When households are non-Ricardian, fiscal deficits can stimulate economic activity and raise future tax revenue. We discuss the conditions under which this mechanism can be potent enough so that deficits finance themselves

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

Are you looking to solve or estimate a heterogeneous-agent model with a large number of state variables? This paper proposes a method to obtain the first-order solution that is fast, accurate, and made accessible by our Python code

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259

Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

2 years

The paper introduces an accounting decomposition for the growth of a top percentile wealth share. Key finding: half of the rise in top wealth inequality is driven by the arrival of new fortunes to the top, rather than by the growth of old fortunes

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249

Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

2 years

A dynamic spatial general equilibrium model with forward-looking investment and migration decisions, which provides a theoretical rationalization for empirical findings of persistent impacts of local shocks from @BennyKleinman @ErnestLiuEcon @ReddingEcon

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

7 months

We are very pleased to announce that Marina Halac will take over as editor of Econometrica in July 2025. She has done an outstanding job as coeditor and with Marina in charge, the journal will be in great hands. We look forward to continue to work with her

News

www.econometricsociety.org

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

2 years

Synthetic control can be interpreted as an online learning algorithm. Even without assumptions on outcomes, results from online learning imply that synth predictions perform almost as well as those made by the best weighted match. @jiafengkevinc

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

2 years

Economies with a high level of dispersion in firm productivity have a lower labor share. The reason is that, in the presence of labor market frictions, productivity dispersion effectively shields high-productivity firms from wage competition. @emilien_gb

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

4 years

Are capital and labor complements or substitutes? Identification using macro time series is difficult; we build up to an aggregate elasticity using well-identified micro elasticities and cross-sectional statistics. For US manufacturing, we estimate 0.5-0.7

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

4 years

Local Projections and Vector Autoregressions share the exact same impulse response estimand. Any identification approach (short-run/long-run/sign restrictions, IVs, etc.) that works with one method can equivalently be implemented with the other method

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

2 years

This paper by @NicolaLimodio studies the financial frictions of terrorists in Pakistan. Local shocks to the financing of terrorist groups are found to increase the local supply of attacks and present a complementarity with terrorist recruitment

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

What is Present Bias? We define and characterize it generally through a new behavioral axiom. We then show that all present-biased preferences can be represented as those of a decision maker who is acting cautiously in the face of uncertain future tastes.

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

13 days

Can political institutions shape norms? Long run exposure to historical forms of self-governance fosters norms of cooperation, which map onto prosocial behaviors. Cultural transmission and feedback loop between norms and institutions sustain this pattern

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

2 years

Does the R&D boom in China yield productivity growth and how much? We structurally estimate an endogenous growth model with innovation and imitation using firm-level data. R&D is an important growth source for China but R&D misallocation reduces its effect

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

2 years

This paper introduces a notion of rationality in dynamic games that is just strong enough to allow the elicitation of beliefs on and off the predicted path of play, and novel elicitation methods that broaden the range of experimentally testable predictions @msiniscalchi

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

We show how and when grouping individuals in a first step, and estimating the model given the groups in a second step, provides consistent estimators even when unobserved heterogeneity is continuous. Check

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

4 years

Do you use GMM? We show that traditional methods can be misleading if the moment condition model does not hold exactly. Our solution: Iterate the weight matrix until convergence and use our new robust standard errors

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

7 months

How do shocks affect welfare and real GDP in international production networks with distortions (e.g. markups, tariffs, or nominal rigidities)? This paper characterizes the answer in terms of microeconomic sufficient statistics @Dbaqaee

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

An agent must split his attention, O’er time and across K dimensions Of a state, unknown. But fear not, we’ve shown, How best to acquire information.

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

4 years

Frequentist and Bayesian inference can be reconciled in set-identified models by using a multiple-prior Bayesian approach

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

Do you think an effective lower bound on interest rates is only a problem? Think again: it is also an opportunity to identify the causal effects of monetary policy. I show how you can do that using a SVAR model with an occasionally binding constraint

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

4 years

Why is economic growth accompanied w changes in the sectoral structure of economies? Micro (~ US & India) & macro data (~ 40 countries) suggest main driver is Engel curves: systematic relations between household income and sectoral composition of demand

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228

Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

4 years

We are excited to announce that the following new associate editors with expertise in empirical work joined editorial board on July 1st 2020: @claudferraz , @elianalaferrara , Rachel Griffith, Kate Ho, and @dannyyagan

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

10 months

Econometrica Volume 91, Issue 6 (November 2023) is now online

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

Expansionary monetary policy borrows demand from the future as stimulating purchases of durable goods now means lower demand for those goods in the future. This mechanism helps explain the low level of interest rates following the Great Recession

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

4 years

Why are some countries “serial defaulters” and others trusted? Why are defaults not easily predicted? Can a country “graduate” from being serial defaulter to a trusted country? We present continuous time reputation model capturing these characteristics.

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216

Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

11 months

Should policymakers discount the future less than the market? @MayaREden shows that any Paretian social welfare function that has this property must also favor more transfers from older people to younger ones @GPIOxford

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

5 months

Econometrica is happy to announce that the 2024 Arrow Prize for the best economic theory paper has been awarded to Laura Doval and Vasiliki Skreta for their paper, "Mechanism Design with Limited Commitment”

Arrow Prize

www.econometricsociety.org

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

4 years

Congratulations to Kate Ho and Robin Lee, winners of the #FrischMedal for "Insurer Competition in Health Care Markets,” (Econometrica, 85.2 (2017): 379-417). Free for a limited time

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

4 months

Empirical economists have typically used few measures, requiring strong assumptions to identify causality. A wider measurement approach allows richer model estimation. However, new measures complement, rather than substitute, theory in empirical analysis

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

Macroeconomic development is an off balanced growth path phenomenon, with the investment rate increasing at early stages and declining afterwards. This alters the relative demand for goods in the economy, inducing a hump in the industrialization process

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

What are the welfare effects of dynamic pricing in airline markets? Overall, dynamic pricing results in higher total surplus than under uniform pricing. Leisure travelers and the firm benefit; business travelers are made worse off

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

1 year

Econometrica Volume 91, Issue 4 (July 2023) is now online

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

1 year

They propose an adversarial estimator for structural models. The estimated model generates data that can best fool a powerful classifier. This efficient estimator is a valuable alternative when the likelihood is intractable and moments are hard to pick

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

2 years

Thinking about applying synthetic controls to estimate causal effects in comparative case studies with aggregate units? If you have access to data within units, you can use Distributional Synthetic Controls to obtain an entire counterfactual distribution

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

Do you estimate impulse responses with local projections? We show that the usual confidence interval is robust to the horizon length and the persistence of the data, if you control appropriately for lags. No need to adjust std. errors for autocorrelation

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

If you don't know which network statistics to put in your regression model, a simple alternative is match on the columns of the squared adjacency matrix

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

Do rulers tax identity to maximize fiscal revenue or are they willing to forfeit revenue to promote their own world view? Evidence on identity taxation and conversion to Islam under the Arab caliphate comes in support of the latter, identity-based paradigm.

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

11 months

We revisit the Abadie-Imbens study on nearest neighbor matching and show that, with a diverging number of nearest neighbors, matching estimators can be doubly robust and semiparametrically efficient for estimating the average treatment effect

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

27 days

From fragmented territories to modern states: New research shows how fiscal reform in the Holy Roman Empire consolidated territories, increasing their size, cohesion, and survival by boosting revenues for military investments and strategic marriages

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

1 year

An inﬁnite debt rollover is sustainable under surprisingly weak conditions on stochastic (& persistent!) interest/growth rates. This PE characterization translates into a similarly weak sufficient condition for the existence of public debt bubbles in GE

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

2 years

Want to figure out if your tax system is so badly designed that all taxpayers can be made better off? This paper by @fixbierbrauer @pierrecboyer & E.Hansen develops tools that enable you to identify Pareto-improving tax reforms if they exist

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

1 year

We study a dynamic economy where firms face strategic complementarities in pricing decisions and a fixed cost of adjustment. We analyze equilibrium existence and uniqueness, and characterize the size and shape of the output response to an aggregate shock

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

2 years

What are misallocation costs of labor market frictions? New paper by @AdrienBilal , @NiklasEngbom , @Simon_Mongey & @glviolante answers this question by integrating the classic theory of firm dynamics into a quantitative model of a frictional labor market

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

Some urban school districts randomize students to seats, others award seats using test scores, some do a mix of both. Anyway, anyhow, anywhere, we know the (propensity) score for centralized seat assignment and can extract a valuable natural experiment!

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

3 years

Unforeseen inflation can provide insurance. With incomplete markets, labor-earnings heterogeneities reshape how monetary policy should respond to aggregate shocks, markedly elevating insurance motives relative price level stabilization

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Econometrica

@ecmaEditors

2 years

Do people allocate their attention optimally? In this paper, @erinbronchetti , @juddkessler , @Ellen_Magenheim , @DTaubinsky , and Eric Zwick develop and deploy a methodology to answer this question. Three complementary experiments reject the hypothesis of full optimality

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