For interested students, we spent quite a bit of time on the replication package. It isn't available on the AEA website yet but is available on mine and includes tex files for the paper and appendix, in addition to all code.
Incredibly excited to join the
@MinneapolisFed
Research Division in a permanent position. Between the Fed and the U, this is a truly remarkable environment for a macroeconomist. We're thrilled to be here. Thanks to all that have made it happen.
@haralduhlig
@FedericoGanz
You're putting preventing small amounts of looting ahead of everything else. That's a choice. I'm choosing to put the ability of people to choose where and when to protest first. It's a question of values.
New working paper with
@David_W_Berger
and
@KyleHerkenhoff
, "Minimum Wages, Efficiency and Welfare"
In a model that replicates a lot of recent empirics, from those that are + and - on minimum wages we find small efficiency gains.
@haralduhlig
@Brianlevy387
1. 1st amendment doesn't require asking for permission to protest at a time organized with police. 2. Actions of a relatively small group of people taking advantage of large protests does not make protestors complicit in looting. 3. Conversations about looting are a distraction
Fwiw, I put slides of my honors undergraduate macroeconomics class online here: . Similar level as
@KurlatPablo
's book, with pre-reqs in calculus and algebra and two courses in micro. Syllabus and key ideas below:
A note to people writing awesome, detailed, empirical papers ... if you provide sufficient details for someone *writing a model* to replicate your natural experiment, that would be absolutely awesome, then we can directly replicate your work and hold our models accountable to it
RIP Bob Lucas. At
@UChi_Economics
Bob came to every talk I gave, even when not well. At NYU he co-taught a course w Boyan & graded a term paper. Never thought he'd *really* read it. All were blown away by personal responses. "Just say: 'The problem studied in this paper is..."
@haralduhlig
@FedericoGanz
In this instance where protest is due to/about police brutality I think its a little cynical to then suggest that protestors have to coordinate with the militarized police they are protesting against. I don't want to demean this with logic games either. So, respectfully, I'm out
Super excited to see the
@MinneapolisFed
grow with outstanding hires: Matt Rognlie as a permanent hire, and Wendy Morrison from Columbia (headed to Duke) in the Junior Scholar post-doc position 🎉
In Australia we have compulsory voting. And endless high school essays on pros and cons thereof. What never came up, maybe as it's so simple, and so hard to consider being an issue in a democracy: compulsory voting legislates a voting infrastructure by which everyone can vote.
1/x: Short(ish) thread on match efficiency in the US labor market. Job openings (V), measured by JOLTS (note on this below), are 40% higher than pre-pandemic, unemployment is low (U). This has lead people to make two claims:
1/n Two things can be true, (i) you yourself have not been discriminatory toward minority students, (ii) minority students do not feel comfortable because they expect you to be discriminatory. Four things push toward this impasse without active behavior.
New empirical evidence consistent with a key mechanism in our 2018 paper. In slack labor markets, firms can cut back on costly recruiting activities, causing a drop in aggregate recruiting intensity which reduces match efficiency, prolonging recessions
Recruiting intensity increases with perceived market tightness, wage offers, and desired hiring. It is pro-cyclical. Their results are broadly consistent with Davis, Faberman, and
@JHaltiwanger_UM
(2013) and also with the model in Gavazza,
@Simon_Mongey
, and
@glviolante
(2018)
1/4: Very happy to have finished a long revision of my paper with Mi Luo on student debt and job choice. We added a model of college enrollment and choice, such that the distribution of debt, assets, skills and education is fully endogenous and lines up with the data.
Corina Boar and I have written a very short paper to help enumerate the reasons why, under the CARES Act, workers may not have been dissuaded from accepting a return-to-work offer from their old employer
[1/7]
New working paper with Adrien Bilal (who is on the market!), Niklas Engbom and
@glviolante
. We develop a tractable framework for firm, job and worker reallocation in a frictional labor market that we take to recent data on job-to-job mobility and use to quantify misallocation 1/n
1/4: How often employers include wages in job postings and for which jobs is an important consideration when thinking about how labor markets function. This paper is a simple one: document how often wages are available. Answer: Very little.
Less than 11 percent of online job posts contain wage information, and those which do present wide ranges. Presence and precision of wages vary systematically, from Honey Batra, Amanda Michaud, and
@Simon_Mongey
1/8: We've significantly updated our March NBER Working paper Labor Market Power with Kyle Herkenhoff and David Berger. Updated NBER working paper shortly, new version on my www. Main changes / new lessons: estimation, c'factuals, transition dynamics.
One of the most influential papers in macro of the last decade: "Large consumption response out of transitory income, small consumption response out of news of transitory income"
@GregWKaplan
@glviolante
Great moment in Chetty seminar:
Data show huge surge in low income spending 16 April day after CARES checks cut.
Puzzled economist: but why did folks not anticipate?
Chetty: Well yes, if you make neoclassical assumptions. But this is an empirical result.
1/N Let me introduce Negin Mousavi (), an excellent student on the market from U Chicago, with her JMP “Optimal Labor Income Tax, Incomplete Markets, and Labor Market Power”. This is an exciting paper! I think will be an important benchmark moving forward
Rapid tests with less-than-lab-level false-negative rates should be approved.
@michaelmina_lab
has a great NYT op-ed on this and has been pushing for months. Our analysis in
@RevEconDyn
is entirely consistent it. How can the US be so far behind?
We've updated the draft of the paper, and put the code up online. You can also run the code in your browser, play around with parameters, and slide around the testing / quarantine rates.
Link here if you scroll down:
Sad to hear of Ed Lazear's passing. Spent a lot of time recently with this absolutely wonderful paper of his. Just yesterday I sent it to a colleague as a reference on a beautifully clear introduction, idea, contribution. Crystal clear theory you can hold
1/5: Expecting a child is great for spamming out NBER Working Papers. This week its a short theory paper that shows cleanly how progressive taxes make hiring more expensive on the margin, which, if internalized by firms may result in under-hiring.
Income tax progressivity makes hiring more expensive on the margin. In a monopsony economy, wages and employment fall, especially at high wage firms, from
@David_W_Berger
,
@KyleHerkenhoff
,
@Simon_Mongey
, and Negin Mousavi
1/n Working paper w
@AlexWeinberg17
and
@pilossopher
: Which workers bear the burden of social distancing policies? "Our main finding is that workers in low-work-from-home and high-physical-proximity jobs are more economically vulnerable across various measures".
Thanks to Mark and
@PeteKlenow
for having our paper Minimum Wages, Welfare and Efficiency on the
@nberpubs
EFG program. If you're interested in the paper 20min talk here (at 4:31:40) and slides here:
Great to see this in print. Follow-up work extends the model to a setting with economic growth via imitation and finds it to be useful for understanding recent declining growth, responsiveness of firms to shocks and shifting firm age distribution ()
What are misallocation costs of labor market frictions? New paper by
@AdrienBilal
,
@NiklasEngbom
,
@Simon_Mongey
&
@glviolante
answers this question by integrating the classic theory of firm dynamics into a quantitative model of a frictional labor market
@haralduhlig
@FedericoGanz
If you can decouple everything so cleanly, police, police brutality, then that's wonderful. And I think as white men in the US we've been able to do that. I'd venture that for black people in the US that's a little bit more difficult than you imagine.
"Testing and Reopening in an SEIR Model", with Berger, Herkenhoff, Huang is accepted at
@RevEconDyn
. Really excited to get this into print. Model has changed a lot, especially to compare virological (V) and serological (S) tests and add 'reopening' responding to public health
1/n Short paper with my excellent RA Alex Weinberg on the characteristics of workers in low work-from-home and high personal-proximity occupations. Main message: the average worker in these jobs is by all measures more economically vulnerable
Come visit the Minneapolis Fed Research Division in 2024/25! Applications are open for the OIGI Visiting Scholar Program. We promise you'll return to your home institution and think, "ahh, isn't this peaceful, I miss the Fed"
We’re wrapping up our 2023 highlights with our annual call for applications to join us as an Institute visiting scholar. Multiple positions available. Open to social science Ph.Ds. Office space and outstanding research environment. Apply here!
1/3 Our paper Labor Market Power provides a framework consistent with the Lindner et al evidence
@arindube
cites. A higher min wage reallocates employment to more productive firms (good) but increases market power at those firms (bad) leading to a hump and peak in welfare
One reason individual employers worry a lot more about minimum wages reducing jobs than bears out in aggregate is that employment can shift from less productive employers to more productive ones.
A starting point would be Jim Schmitz'
@MinneapolisFed
amazing work on the "great harm" done by organizations that have long blocked industrial production of housing in the US.
Website:
And book:
And paper:
If apartments were mostly pre-fabricated in factories and then assembled on site like this one, then construction productivity would soar, costs would plummet, quality would increase and more people would have nicer homes.
Why isn't it happening?
Great feeling to submit a paper for the first time and have it in the uhhh "secure holding tank" at Econometrica. Bunch of over eager papers spending a night in the tank to dry out a bit
@HannoLustig
@Noahpinion
Following conversations with Patrick Kehoe a while back I tried putting this into a flow chart at one point. This, I think, is a lot of the science of Prescott.
@HannoLustig
@Noahpinion
This is how I teach it, its a huge intellectual jump. It puts reaching for inefficiencies as an explanation for complex data on a back foot. Instead, first try to figure out whether an efficient model can get it right. One of my favorite examples:
I've got a spare room and am young(ish, urghh). If you're in Chicago, have kids, or elderly family, and end up with someone that needs to be quarantined, send them here.
When relatives in UK and friends in Australia have asked "how can u live in a place that elects Trump" i usually respond, how can u live in a place that can't elect Obama. American democracy is wild: rough with the smooth. It worth remembering what else happened yesterday.
I can think of a number of fantastic applicants to U Chicago's PhD program that were admitted this year that didn't seem to be following any playbook. Excited to have them (hopefully) join us!
@boazbaraktcs
That said, our field has become opaque enough that
- The majority of people seem to be following some kind of playbook
- Exploration leaves you a very small chance of winning against the playbook guys
Making the playbook public info, IMO, levels the playing field
This is an *excellent* paper. Very much looking forward to teaching it. Congratulations
@AGottfries
! Fwiw, every paper of Mike Elsby's is a delight, Elsby and Michaels (AEJ:Macro) took up months of grad school.
🎉🎉🎉. This is a beautiful paper by
@IvanWerning
and Olivier and has helped me clarify a lot of thinking about my own work. Its not often you wish that you had been a referee on a paper.
This is a really great paper, so beautifully put together. A great read especially for students interested in quantitative macro / trade / international
New paper with
@glviolante
. We merge QCEW and JOLTS microdata at the BLS to take a deeper dive on how firms fill vacancies in the cross-section and over-time. Macro model➕Micro data➡️Index of aggregate recruiting intensity you can compute at home!
Fantastic to see
@HistDem
(Steven Ruggles) being awarded a MacArthur Fellowship. Steven has been central to publicly available microdata in the US and outspoken re: proposed changes at
@uscensusbureau
to the ACS. Hopefully this broadens his platform!
More later... Our paper extends the infectious disease transmission model to introduce a role for testing asymptomatic cases. We show mortality can be kept at "indiscriminate quarantine" levels w aggressive testing targeted quarantine reducing output loss
Absolutely bonkers. Removal of single family zoning cast as exacerbating barriers to homeownership. Article: Minneapolis cannot proceed with 2040 Plan, court rules
*Highly* recommend
@KurlatPablo
's new textbook. It fills a gap: resources for students that have a bit of calculus, but below grad + modern macro. From next year I'll certainly use it as a primary text for my Honors u/grad macro class at
@UChi_Economics
.
1/3 Mattias' JMP (NYU) is very cool. He uses new AI tools to solve for equilibria of the GE model of market-level dynamic oligopoly with pricing frictions in Mongey (2021).
0/10. Today we highlight Matias Covarrubias JMP thread. He uses artificial intelligence algorithms to answer; How do oligopolistic strategies affect the transmission of monetary policy?
#EconTwitter
Website:
Excited to be co-organizing a new annual workshop in Sydney, first edition this December 16, 17, hosted by
@E61Institute
and
@Macquarie_Uni
. A key part of the workshop is exposing international researchers to the amazing microdata available in Australia! Send us your papers!
@haralduhlig
I'd also add that the recent protests have provided countless examples of that being difficult more broadly. Maybe you can explain how this person was supposed to distinguish b/w police and police brutality
You've got another month to submit papers to the
@virtualmacrosem
's *Junior Conference*, which follows up the *Junior seminars*, and will run Aug 31 - Sep 2. SED-like format, new papers, 25min talks. PhD students also encouraged to apply!
Fantastic, new, source of data. The raw data is also here: , now neatly cataloged to be conformable with QWI and LODES data. E.g., Combined with BDS can be used to compare Job-to-job and firm entry data (as we do in Bilal, Engbom, Mongey, Violante)
Our recent paper in preparation for the NBER Macroannual, in which we nest different forces determining market power of firms in a single model, building on the seminal work by Cahuc,
@fpvinay
and Robin.
Persistent earnings risk has risen since the 1980s, primarily among high-skill workers in occupations with the greatest computer technology requirements, from J. Carter Braxton,
@KyleHerkenhoff
, Jonathan L. Rothbaum, and Lawrence Schmidt
Sensational volume of RED. The RED special volumes are something else. The special issue "Cross-sectional facts for macroeconomists" (2010), was a revelation to me when I found it before grad school
Vincenzo Quadrini and I organized a special issue of RED to celebrate the 25th anniversary of "Frontiers of Business Cycle Research," a book edited by Tom Cooley in 1995. Please take a look! 1/3
1/3: We've posted an update to "Minimum Wages, Efficiency and Welfare". Main result: In a model that matches a wide set of empirics on labor markets, tiny welfare gains exist via the *efficiency* channel of addressing monopsony power in labor markets.
Amazing. This is precisely the wrong interpretation of this figure. And a reminder of the following: you can develop symptoms up to 14 days after catching Covid. These people caught Covid *before* they were vaccinated.
📍VACCINE WORKS WITHIN 10 DAYS: New FDA analysis of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine shows the immunity protection of the
#COVID19
vaccine kicks in **starting on day 10** after first dose, and continues to protect from there. Astounding!!
Sargent says every macroeconomist should derive the Kalman filter from scratch once a year. These guys put it to incredible use studying universe of US earnings records. Increase in inequality due to increase in persistent earnings shocks, and this driven by high wage occupations
At 1120est Carter Braxton is presenting my new paper w/ Jon Rothbaum & Larry Schmidt at NBER. We find rising permanent earnings risk in linked CPS-SSA data. And its being driven by high skill occupations! New method recovers permanent income shocks for everyone, in every period!
1/2 Our paper on "Minimum Wages, Efficiency and Welfare" is now available as an
@OIGInstitute
working paper . Main result: Min wages can retrieve only a small fraction of the efficiency losses due to labor market power
Awesome to see
@IvanWerning
working on this topic. With Olivier they get an impressive analytical tractability out of continuous time Calvo setting w N firms and aggregate shocks that I couldn't get w menu costs 2 firms and large idiosyncratic shocks. Time to send out again 😬
Modern IO ---> Macro!
Monopolistic competition reigns supreme in macro, trade, growth etc., but what about more realistic dynamic oligopolistic scenarios?
Olivier Wang (NYU Stern) will present our paper at NBER SI session. Link in next tweet. Short thread below. 1/n
[1/3]: CPS out today, so updated last figure in our paper (with
@AlexWeinberg_
@pilossopher
). Employment losses started showing up for college educated workers, increased for women. Part-time work wiped out. *Bad* for everyone, increasingly bad for those at the bottom.
Excited to get back into the
@BLS_gov
(when it reopens to microdata researchers) to use our merged JOLTS / QCEW data to revise this paper, part of a broader agenda understanding heterogeneity in job filing rates across firms through lens of firm dynamics models and new microdata
On empirical indexes of recruiting intensity for the US, see The Establishment-Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring
(Davis-Faberman-Haltiwanger)
and Macro Recruiting Intensity from Micro Data (Mongey-Violante)
How could anyone look at this figure and not primarily come away with "the pandemic and post-pandemic inflation was a catastrophe for real wage growth across the board", and perhaps mostly for less educated households. I'll frame
@HannoLustig
's "You can't eat wage compression"
"It is delightful to find a head so full of brains and a heart so full of the milk of human kindness in one human unit" - Frank Ramsey's junior school history teacher, sharing the sentiment regarding Emmanuel Farhi on here this weekend
David Baqaee's (
@DBaqaee
) keynote for the VMACS Junior Conference covering some of his wonderful work with Emmanuel Farhi will be streamed live on YouTube here: (2-3pm EST)
@Jonheathcote
, Fabrizio Perri,
@lichenzhang20
and I have a new empirical paper on the dynamics of inequality in U.S. since 1967. It updates and extends our 2010 RED paper. 🧵
This morning, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its latest benchmark revisions for the national income and product accounts. 🧵on the work that goes into BEA's efforts to measure the economy: 1/14
Two cents: Economists should quickly shift to modeling things other than / in addition to quarantine as a policy. Otherwise our models will feature only death vs output trade-offs. That's one of the 'meta' messages of our paper, that there are other things that can be done.
🚨If you're a junior macro researcher looking to present preliminary work to a great audience, please consider submitting your paper to the Junior VMACS Conference. 🚨
Details: (follow them to help us implement a blind review)
Just got to San Diego after 2.5 weeks back home in Perth, Australia. A little concerned I might answer questions in tomorrow's talk with responses like "I dunno, I reckon its probably gone up, but yeah, whatever's good". Related: do I have to wear shoes again?
For the short time I knew him Emmanuel was incredibly kind, gracious, welcoming, and at times where, to me, he could easily have been the opposite. A laugh and a mind that will be missed. Rest in peace.
1/2: Aware of an aggregation result from Anderson DePalma and Thisse re: logit and CES? A fun result in our paper is that it's a knife edge case of preferences where a complete and incomplete markets allocations coincide, and hence aggregation and efficiency go hand-in-hand.
Identifying the allocations that emerge in general equilibrium economies populated by households with preferences of the additive random utility type that make discrete consumption, employment, or spatial decisions, from
@Simon_Mongey
and
@tradewartracker
Enormous job losses, disproportionately shouldered by the more vulnerable. Job losses over Feb-Mar from the CPS disproportionately larger for foreign workers, those without college degrees, young, non-white, and low income.
From work with
@AlexWeinberg17
and
@pilossopher
.
Just wrapped my last Intro Macro class for the semester.
Looking forward to a bit of a change of pace next week.
(Remote work, in case you're wondering)
Here, here. I encourage job market candidates to do this. 6 years of working your ass off to the get someone telling you to make a decision on where to live, who to work with, all of it in 2 days. Ridiculous. Nothing legally binding.
@ShengwuLi
I regard advisors (and departments) who publicly state that they encourage students to feel free to accept and then renege on exploding offers as even better citizens. Since it removes stigma from job market candidates doing so. It is the advice my students receive from me.
Physical assets that can be literally parked. Non-systemic, apart from in spreading virus. Employ few american workers. Registered offshore (no pun intended) to avoid taxes and regulation. Get out.
NEW: Cruise industry not confident it could borrow from any of the existing loan programs bc of offshore registration.
Sr. admin official says bipartisan Senate grp working to ensure they can access one of the facilities--or else will seek a legislative fix in the next package.
Presenting joint work with
@chrisedmond
at VMACS on Thursday. If you've ever wondered about the implications of Starbucks coffee machines and smart cash registers for within task wage inequality, then this is for you!
@gmnavarro
and
@AxelleFerriere
worked their butts off on this paper for a really long time. Its a wonderful paper, from which I've learned a lot. And another great example of
@NYUEconomics
students doing great work.
``Empirically, government spending is more expansionary when financed with more progressive taxes. This can be replicated in a HANK model with realistic MPCs and labor supply elasticities.''
From
@gmnavarro
and
@AxelleFerriere