The Coal Trader @dyer440 Twitter profile

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The Coal Trader

2 months

US Dollar has topped... I think we should be selling the double top in US equities. Time to start lurking in Emerging Markets. When we get bullish again on Fed/Treasury printing bonanza, buy EM equities instead of US.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

Whoever sent me $70 (35lbs) worth of coal, it’s not funny.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

Last thought on coal: THE MARKET IS WRONG They say the market is never wrong, but it is this time. Thermal coal equities are in a nasty selloff MoM despite IMPROVING fundamentals. Large capital allocators cannot buy these producers, but YOU CAN. YOU don't have an ESG mandate.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

Date night, and wife does not care about how my Australian coal stocks are getting hammered.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

Everyone likes to assume mean reversion in commodities, but this is a synthetically created supply shortage. ESG = no capital for incremental supply + tougher regs on permitting. Coal demand is at ALL TIME HIGHS, and will continue higher. Give me a REASON prices will fall.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

3 years

I hope you’re long cheap energy. $BTU 🚀🚀

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

10 months

You guys nailed this one. If #CoalTwitter could only come to a consensus this easily all the time, life would be easy. 😆 Anyway, here's my results:

The Coal Trader

@dyer440

10 months

I just ranked all US coal producers by EV/EBITDA and FCF Yield... will discuss tomorrow. For now, let's see which one you guys think is the cheapest:

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

Is it just me, or is everyone else calling bs on this entire Chinese spy balloon episode?

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

1. The royalty rate increased in QLD are a BIG FUCKING DEAL for the metallurgical coal industry:

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

1 year

Uranium could get interesting here:

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

3 years

Resources selloff is not related to fundamentals.. it's more about market structure and institutions getting hit elsewhere having to take profits where they have them in order to raise liquidity/capital - and shed overall risk.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

3 years

The rotation from non-profitable tech and momentum names into energy and resource cyclicals looks and feels real to me.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

Reminder... coal just bottomed and will be higher for MUCH longer than many believe:

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

To Peabody Management $BTU: You have to say that you will weigh organic & inorgranic GROWTH opportunities against the valuation of your stock. If BUYBACK IRR's are higher than GROWTH, then you say you'll do buybacks... you numbnuts!! 😂😂

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

8 months

Peabody $BTU Earnings Call Notes are out ($) Took me all day, hope they're useful.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

3 years

Everyone’s EV forecast is WRONG. China’s electricity grid is at failure now, many US states as well… The mindset of energy abundance disappeared w/ $3 natural gas. Back to energy scarcity.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

3 years

Glad I'm involved in Australian markets.. now I get kicked in the dick 24/7 #coaltwitter

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

Get ready #CoalTwitter - we will become insufferable once $BTU hits. Soon.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

$BTU pullback was deeper than I expected.. but it setting up for another siege of the highs:

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

Shows you how dumb the market is: $ARLP & $CEIX not moving AT ALL on this... it's like coal equities are trading in the pre-information age. This is your edge.

Natalie Biggs

@NatalieBiggs_C6

2 years

Germany’s Replacement Power Plant Availability Act, just approved, would allow operators to break from sulfur limits if they can’t reasonably source low sulfur coal. Also, the act includes what looks like an attempt to keep Colombia’s Prodeco mine closed. US coal anyone…

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

9 months

Here's my Peabody forecast $BTU... get on the #coal train or be left behind (again):

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

$BTU has been FLAT for basically a full year. Thanks for playing.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

1 year

After consolidating for a year... there's no weak hands left to sell. Everyone vying for the last share: $AMR $HCC $NRP $CEIX

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

Tech cycle is over... commodity cycle begins. ESPECIALLY if the world keeps up malinvestment in IRA/ESG oriented schemes.

ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

2 years

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank $SIVB is actually the collapse of the ‘futures curve’ for VC returns - and the definitive NAIL IN THE COFFIN for this tech cycle.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

10 months

Somebody at Peabody $BTU needs to listen... Call BNSF and Union Pacific $UNP. Tell them you're going to shut down the PRB unless they buy these assets from you. It's a drag on your entire company & outlook. Stock would probably double in the 12 mo's that follow. Shed ~$30M in

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

8 months

I think that puts Elliott at a little over 6 million shares left... $BTU Lot of pressure w/ all that supply hitting the market - once its gone - sh prices rise like a balloon to the surface. Fresh air over $30?

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

3 years

There's a met #coal producer that could very well earn $2 billion of FCF in 2022... their market cap is close to $1 billion today.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

3 years

A lot of tourists are getting involved in energy & resources lately. The exuberance level is sky high. They will most likely get routed soon.. a nice pullback will shake out the weak hands… But it will be an epic buying opportunity.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

3 years

I’m long $BTU.. and anyone who talks shit about me flip flopping gets blocked - the title is Coal TRADER 🤣

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

9 months

Initial thoughts on $BTU pre call... Q4 was basically right in-line w/ my expectations. The important info we learned from the 2024 guide confirms the value here - this stock is cheap af relative to peer group. You're looking at $1B+ in '24 EBITDA. There's no good reason for it

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

Here’s to making so much fucking money in 2023!!

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

10 months

Peabody vs Whitehaven is an interesting comparison here... Both have some +ive things going their way. $BTU: 1. Shoal Creek restart 2. Centurion (N. Goony) restart 3. Elliott EXIT $WHC.ax has the revenue boost from #metcoal Each have the "relative" drag from thermal. Although

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

I’m convinced we’re headed for hard times. We deserve the weak leaders we’ve had, and the consequences will finally come home to roost. This goes beyond energy policy, look at our culture.. something about idle hands being the devils workshop.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

Thermal Coal Prices, various indexes:

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

Are you on board??

The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

#CoalTwitter rocket alert 🚨🚨 $BTU 🚀🚀

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

The abundance of cheap energy alters how our society functions at a fundamental level. I think the entire ESG push was created out of this abundance mindset - and it might’ve been fine if US Shale “abundance” wasn’t so… TRANSITORY.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

10 months

Coal co's getting that uplift from Nippon demonstrating where the value is... I think the #cokingcoal portion of the #steel supply chain remains the most undervalued segment from a s/d outlook perspective.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

For September '22, portfolio was up 36.14% 🤑 Max drawdown was 13.91%. Sharpe was 5.37. YTD 575%. Top contributing trades (by monthly contribution): $OKTA puts 7% $QQQ puts 4.6% $GOOG puts 2.8% $FNGD common 2.8% $QQQ puts 2.7%

The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

For August '22, portfolio was up 21.44% 🤑 Max drawdown was 11.33%. Sharpe was 3.44. YTD 395%. Top contributing trades (by monthly contribution): $WHC common 4% $MU puts 2.6% $FNGD common 2.3% $TWLO puts 2.2% $CEIX calls 2.1%

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

10 months

The move in Alpha $AMR is breathtaking. What's the short float look like? This is nuts. I didn't think we'd be fighting for the last share so soon!

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

3 years

As long as the administration is attacking big oil… they’re not attacking coal.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

6 months

Small bounce in PLV futures and Met stocks are flying. This is how we rerate. $HCC $AMR

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

7 months

My Coal Portfolio is now published ($)... and my PA's Total Allocation is also now up to date. I plan to update weekly.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

Somewhere in Mexico

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

1 year

@hkuppy Companies who own the means of production... bc it'll be more expensive to develop/build those means going forward.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

If CB's want to fck around and do QE - they're basically accepting of higher inflation. The trade is LONG ENERGY

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

3 years

OK.. here's the deal on Chinese thermal coal price controls: 1. They're simply moving the losses from the utilities to the mining companies. 2. Moreover, they're shutting themselves off from world markets and incremental imports. We're watching Sovietization in real time!

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

7 months

Why hasn't palladium taken off like gold & other precious metals? Or is this chart the best overlooked opportunity we've ever seen? $PALL

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

I gotta yolo some $BTU calls ahead of earnings tomorrow.. everybody's quiet lately, but everybody's doing it. 😉

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

Love to see them starting to admit it

Sxcoal

@sxcoal

2 years

China's proven coking #coal reserves can hardly meet the demand for maintaining the country's long-term economic stability at current consumption levels, said Guo Lijuan, Deputy Director of Sales and Trade Service Center of Shanxi Coking Coal group.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

You guys asked for a dip... here it is! $WHC.AX Get in before they buyback 25% of shares. #CoalTwitter

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

For April '22, portfolio was up 37%. Max drawdown was 7%. Sharpe was 6.31. YTD +275% 🤠 Top contributors by total contribution were: $BTU calls 4% $CEIX calls 3% $TGA common 2% $QQQ puts 2%

The Coal Trader

@dyer440

3 years

For March, portfolio was up 10.5%. Max drawdown was 25% (ouch!). Sharpe was 1.62. 😵 Top contributors by total contribution were: $ALGN puts 4.3% $VAL warrants 3.9% $NTES puts 3.3% $TGA common 2.6% $JD puts 2.3%

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

9 months

Seems like a lot going on in the coal space while I’ve been away on vacation. It’s nice to see the portfolio up nicely, covering the costs of all my wife’s spending. 😆

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

8 months

Something to be said for metallurgical coal price stability, yet $AMR can puke 18% in a day on no news. Feels like shenanigans going on.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

Hahaha... add that to the Saudi put and you have a solid price floor for crude oil.

*Walter Bloomberg

@DeItaone

2 years

BIDEN OFFICIALS MULL BUYING OIL AT AROUND $80 TO REFILL RESERVE

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

3 years

Russia held Germany hostage to their energy supply in exchange for light retaliation. The world see's Germany for what they are now... anti-science and math, green-indoctrinated cowards.

Javier Blas

@JavierBlas

3 years

For the first time in 67 days, Germany is buying Russian gas via the Yamal-Europe pipeline (throughout Belarous and Poland). The Mallnow pumping station is showing positive flows (chart). Since December 21, Gazprom had only shipped gas into Germany via NordStream 1 | #Ukraine

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

11 months

Goodbye Earth... $HCC 🌜

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

10. (that's a 5% CAGR PER YEAR - for 10 years) This is very bullish for N. American producers like $HCC, $TECK, $ARCH, $AMR, $METC, and others with high quality reserves in what are (so far) "safe" jurisdictions.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

Market telling $BTU.. "don't be stupid"

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

Tangible > Intangible Assets in the 2020’s. The pendulum has swung too far towards favoring intangible assets & spending & thinking. Under investment in tangible assets are creating most of our current problems.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

3 years

I'm not an economist (even though I play one sometimes on twitter)... but drastically reducing a country's trade (Russia ~2% of global GDP) & then absorbing +20% higher energy costs globally as a result, is definitely a path towards a recession.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

9 months

Ruh roh… good thing it’s tiny otherwise it might be a huge contrarian signal.

ETF Hearsay by Henry Jim

@ETFhearsay

9 months

*Coal ETF launches tomorrow! Energy ETFs to list tomorrow Wed Jan 24, 2024 Range Global Coal Index ETF | $COAL Range Global LNG Ecosystem Index ETF | $LNGZ Range Global Offshore Oil Services Index ETF | $OFOS Range Nuclear Renaissance Index ETF | $NUKZ All at 0.85% fees

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

1 year

WARRIOR $HCC 🚀🚀

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

1 year

Either Bell Rock Capital was pushing back on purpose to help Paul get a good price, or I hope those dick bags sold every share before tonight. 😆🙏 $WHC.AX Legend Status for this bloke:

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

New highs down under 🚀🚀

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

3 years

India has announced a "master plan" for $1.35 trillion of infrastructure investment in the next five years. Steel consumption should increase by 66% by March 2025 as a result. - From IHS This is what India needs, a China-like central control of capital allocation for GROWTH.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

What happens to the share price if the company buys back 5-8% of shares outstanding every quarter??

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

Mea culpa time... I definitely got this "consolidation phase" WRONG. 😆 $WHC

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

8 months

I wonder if the narrative around electric vehicles is changing only because Chinese automakers are starting to dominate the space.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

@StefanVesti If you cared about people you'd realize fossil fuels have raised the standard of living for all developed countries and that developing countries should enjoy the same opportunities.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

1 year

Whitehaven almost guaranteed to be a double a year later.

InfantTurdPowder.eth

@zhanginu

1 year

If $WHC buys 2 BHP mines without raising ANY equity... Production goes from 13mtpa to 29mtpa. Assume financing is via a mix of surety, bank debt and vendor financing. We dont know the $ amount but assume US$3bn to US$3.5bn range as per articles. Does share price go up or down?

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

Time to fight this flu:

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

Owning something in your portfolio not at least tangentially related to energy is an opportunity cost liability at this point.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

Lesson to coal producers is striking; spend money on acquisitions and your stock gets crushed: $METC

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

As I get more comfortable taking small losses, trading gets easier. It's quite blissful. This must be what it's like being on of those pick up artists - hitting on every girl - just a numbers game. 😆

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

$ARCH

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

New post:

API2 Prices in the Absence of Russian Coal

US coals are unable to replace Russian coals in Europe

thecoaltrader.substack.com

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

3 years

BUT.. $ARCH brings the hammer: “Announced a robust, new capital return program set to launch in the second quarter of 2022” That’s what shareholders want to hear.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

You guys think a 60cent move in Henry Hub is going to impact coal demand!?!? You must be stuck in 2020 when HH was $4 and there was coal to gas (or visa versa) switching capacity! Lol.. coal equities down on 60cent move proves markets aren't in touch w/ reality.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

@Sen_JoeManchin WV resident here.. not sure how hiring all those IRS workers and throwing good money after bad on green energy is going to lower inflation?

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

6 months

Peabody $BTU sure does like to throw some stank around when you weren't ready for it! I've been the biggest bear on their US thermal segments this year - and their prelim sales numbers were lower than I had them for Q1. US dom is going to be ugly. The real worry here is that

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

1 year

I look at my iPhone, it's made of sand, aluminum, lithium, copper, petroleum products and God knows what other specialty metals... All of it was extracted from the Earth. Sorta like how your HVAC guy makes more money than you, the world will eventually value mining co's > tech.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

1 year

Quietly up like 17% in 3 days and I've only made 1 trade.. maybe I'm too leveraged. 😆

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

For August '22, portfolio was up 21.44% 🤑 Max drawdown was 11.33%. Sharpe was 3.44. YTD 395%. Top contributing trades (by monthly contribution): $WHC common 4% $MU puts 2.6% $FNGD common 2.3% $TWLO puts 2.2% $CEIX calls 2.1%

The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

For July '22, portfolio was up 14.47% 😁 Max drawdown was 7.48%. Sharpe was 3.63. YTD 308%. Top contributing trades (by monthly contribution): $CEIX Aug calls 4% $WHC common 3.7% $TGA common 2.9% $CEIX Sept calls 2.8% $NHC common 2.4% Bottom Contributors: $TSLA put spread -2.1%

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

From CONSOL $CEIX: "Due to grid reliability concerns and delayed renewable build-outs, domestic coal-fired electricity generation unit retirements are being postponed. IHS McCloskey estimates that approximately 12 GW of coal-fired generation has announced retirement delays"

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

If we have the time & luxury to argue about whether furries should have litter boxes in bathrooms or kids should be brought to drag shows… put simply, we’re fucked.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

Coal should be UP on the Freeport LNG news. Europe needs BTU's.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 months

Thinking about the $Arch & $CEIX merger... Everyone is baffled by it. I think this is due to both management teams totally checking their ego's at the door. This is highly unusual in Corporate Americana. They both saw a good bit of themselves in each other, the ability to

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

3 years

Coal stonks settling into support areas.. if you're a dip buyer this is the spot: $AMR $BTU $ARCH $HCC

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

10 months

I just ranked all US coal producers by EV/EBITDA and FCF Yield... will discuss tomorrow. For now, let's see which one you guys think is the cheapest:

Arch

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Peabody

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Ramaco

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Warrior

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

Changing my mind on $BTU.. too much merger smoke. Doubt it'll be accretive and production in Australia likely misses due to rain. Plus we can't trust management.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

3 years

For those worried about a #coal pullback, here's the chart to watch.. please ignore Chinese rhetoric:

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

1 year

Alpha swag: $AMR

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

1 year

Don't look now but the Big Dog's at all time highs... 👀 $AMR

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

I’m very pleased with $AMR results this morning. Share price is unfortunately correlated to met prices, but they’re totally de-risked now w/ a material buyback to support the shares. Will be interesting to see what investors do with it now that it’s a money printing machine.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

$CEIX earnings look good. These thermal coal producers are income stream type of long term holdings at this point. They aren't going to re-rate higher, but if you want a solid 20% pa return for much less risk than the market is assuming, they work well.

Coal Newswire

@CoalNewswire

2 years

1/6 $CEIX CONSOL Energy reports strong Q4 2022 results with GAAP net income of $193 million and adjusted EBITDA of $240.3 million. The company announces a dividend of $1.10/share and plans to increase shareholder returns to 35-50% of free cash flow.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

Made it back from a wonderful trip to London..

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

8 months

I might be a free agent soon… and the opportunities are frankly overwhelming! Sort of makes me feel like the universe is nudging me regardless.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

For those interested in mine reclamation liabilities and surety bonds.. backstory to the $BTU situation.. a quick thread:

The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

@ldiped01 They have to insure their reclamation liabilities. At the end of a mine's life, the company must reclaim the land and it costs a pretty penny.. there's laws that regulate such activity/requirements. Pre-law, companies would mine out, then go bust and never reclaim the land.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

3 years

Starting to think crude oil is the trade for 2022. It REALLY feels like covid is almost over.. basically half the world has omicron err a mild cold rn. I get the economic bear case from China RE construction, etc but there has to still be some pent up ‘Pandemic is Over’ demand.

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

Higher #steel prices give met coal more room to the upside:

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The Coal Trader

@dyer440

2 years

Where are we in the credit cycle?

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