ColdmanSax @ColdmanSax Twitter profile

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

1 year

Here is a top 10 list of my own lessons learned from my career thus far...

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

1 year

I’ve been promising to post some investment ideas, and here you go. FYI, I might hold none/some/all of these, and I might be buying/selling at any time. Some to really DO YOUR WORK ON and some to just keep on the watchlist. In no particular order…

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

1 year

If you are meeting with a junior miner, and the CEO spends more time talking about the bull case for the underlying commodity, then you probably shouldn’t invest in the company. MOST gold juniors (and even developers!) are guilty of this. A call option instead of a business.

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

I’ve done A LOT of FUNDAMENTAL AND QUANT research on what makes ANY commodity REALLY MOVE over my career. EXCLUDING external shock events - the BIGGEST common catalyst is when INVENTORIES (or StU for ags) approach zero. Best current example is the TIN market. OIL coming soon.

UrBull

@bull_ur

3 years

These days, this chart is THE BEST. The global oil inventory draw down continues in a straight line DOWN. Once we break the bottom line of Dec 2019 (this cannot be stopped easily), the oil price and oil equities will spike. Soon! #OOTT (Organization of Oil-Trading Tweeters)

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

2 years

There you go, @hkuppy . I fixed the chart for you by adding a RED FLAG at the top of that 'flagpole'. Amazing that the first time I heard anything about these insider loans was AFTER the bank collapsed. Seems a RED FLAG that everyone should look out for in every sector...

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

2 years

A few high-level COMMODITY VIEWS as we step into 2023... OIL: North American shale was the BIGGEST beneficiary of ZIRP and resultant capital misallocation, while ESG has gutted the exploration project pipeline, as well as restricted access to capital.

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

Recommended / required reading... The Big Score Intrepid Explorer Bre-X: Gold Today, Gone Tomorrow The Elements of Power Never Rest on Your Ores The World for Sale Adolf H. Lundin: No Guts, No Glory The Conquest of Copper Mountain The Gold Hustlers Green Fire #MINTWIT #OOTT

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

One of you #TINBARONS posted this a few months ago. More accurate now than EVER…

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

This theme of 'MISSING BARRELS' is one I've been following for YEARS, first covered IN DETAIL by @CornerstoneOil reports from at least 10yrs ago...

The World Has Been Using A Lot More Oil Than We Thought

Global oil stockpiles are a lot lower than previous estimates suggest.

www.bloomberg.com

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

2 years

PAY ATTENTION TO THIS. Demand for CHEMICALS is the QUIET BULL MARKET that is just beginning, and it will CRUSH SOME MINERS…

Prof. Michael Tanchum

@michaeltanchum

2 years

Prepare for the Green Economy Sulfur Crunch ⚠️Soon: A shortfall 40%-130% of sulfuric acid ▪️ Sulfuric acid needed to extract #EV battery #metals ▪️ 80% of global supply is from the desulfurization of crude Oil and natural gas ➡️Less #Oil & #natgas , less #cobalt & #nickel

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

Last week, I had the GREAT PLEASURE of meeting @YellowLabLife in person at the BMO MINING CONFERENCE in SUNNY SOUTH FLORIDA. The KOALA KNOWS HIS STUFF!

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

2 years

@MetalManInvest For copper, all eyes on $FIL.TO as an explorer/developer - nothing beats the potent combination of a district-scale opportunity + Lundin Group board/mgmt/backing. And I like the jurisdiction(s).

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

2 years

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank $SIVB is actually the collapse of the ‘futures curve’ for VC returns - and the definitive NAIL IN THE COFFIN for this tech cycle.

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

1 year

10) Read, read, read. DO YOUR OWN WORK and trust your gut.

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

KING COPPER is the ‘connective tissue’ for ELECTRIFICATION. Doesn’t matter which battery chemistry or application - COPPER is needed. $FIL.TO $JOSE.TO

Natalie Biggs

@NatalieBiggs_C6

3 years

Submarine cable for an offshore wind turbine, 50kg/m of copper needed (Joey Keasberry)

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

Your daily reminder that we STILL HAVE NOT YET REACHED PEAK COAL, despite what many ESG 'investors' would like to believe...

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

2 years

In my view, NOBODY selling COAL will want to hedge when the PRICE IS RISIMG and EU’s BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL just came into effect. COAL MINERS have been getting their heads kicked in for a LONG TIME, so they want to ENJOY THE UPSIDE…

Jeremy Raper

@puppyeh1

2 years

…and obvi given where $WHC.AC $TGA.LN $NHC.AX trade etc it would near double the stocks overnight. Is it just not actionable or do these managers all think coal is just going higher forever?

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

1 year

@Toronto242M @jenstilmanydots Because I don't invest in charts. I invest in fundamentals. For my copper investments, sideways is just fine. When the market turns - and it will - the real fireworks happen. Making equity investments that depend on commodity upside doesn't work across the cycles.

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

THIS is why I talk about Russian exports of ENERGY. It’s NOT JUST OIL, NAT GAS, COAL, or URANIUM. IT’S ALL OF THEM TOGETHER that presents the REAL RISK. And NOT JUST the commodities produced WITHIN Russia’s borders, but also those produced within PUTIN’S sphere of influence…

Nick Jones

@Grainjones

3 years

Things I learned from the $KAP call that we didn't already know. 1) Kaz is in the Nur-Sultan time zone. 2) Integration between KAP and Russia should terrify western fuel buyers. 3) They may have disappeared their COO (wtf?)

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

1 year

3) Study successful mgmt teams and strategies. Winners tend to keep winning and losers tend to keep losing. There is a difference between company-builders and corporate grifters, and the more you study both, the more you will recognize the difference. Don’t just buy the story.

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

$BHP is either going to win the bidding war for $NOT.V or they will buy another NICKEL project. SAME for Wyloo. Good reason to own a BASKET of NICKEL SULPHIDE projects US/Canada/Australia, as this is a FOCUS AREA OF M&A for the big miners...

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

EXCELLENT thread on the OIL BULL MARKET. Lots of debate of $100 OIL by the CLOWNS in media. The debate SHOULD be about $300 OIL.

Bison Interests

@BisonInterests

3 years

On buying the oil dip. While many are calling for the end of the oil and gas bull market, or attempting to time the market, we embrace this volatility and continue to buy discounted shares. A thread 🧵

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

OIL BULL MARKET…

Menthor Q

@MenthorQpro

3 years

Crude price vs US rig count. If these prices are not incentivizing them to produce, Biden surely will now H/T @SoberLook

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

1 year

Copper prices are going higher. It’s all about finding that incentive price - and as Codelco shows us, prices aren’t yet high enough…

Wood Mackenzie

@WoodMackenzie

1 year

A substantial $575 billion investment will be essential by 2040 to meet global copper demand, according to Wood Mackenzie’s latest insight. Read More: #LatinAmerica #copper

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

MAKE MINING GREAT AGAIN. 'A natural gas power plant with 1mW of capacity takes about 1,000 kg of minerals to build...1mW of solar requires 7,000 kg...while offshore wild uses more than 15,000 kg'...

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

10 months

$NGEX.V is putting out some African Copperbelt-type #copper grades in the Andes!

NGEx Minerals

@ngex_minerals

10 months

NGEX DRILLS 62M AT 6.98% COPPER EQUIVALENT AND 63M AT 5.84% COPPER EQUIVALENT AT LUNAHUASI More here: $NGEX.V #NoGutsNoGlory

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

I PROBABLY agree with this about $TLO.TO. There have NOT been ANY other NICKEL explorers (sulphide OR laterite) with as exciting a project. For one, it tells me NICKEL PRICES ARE GOING MUCH HIGHER if these other projects are the best the industry can find. This is a market

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

2 years

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury." - Alexander Tytler

Majority of Americans back new stimulus checks to combat inflation

About two-thirds of Americans said the federal government should send out stimulus payments, according to a poll conducted exclusively for Newsweek.

www.newsweek.com

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

2 years

Not quite accurate, and RIGHT NOW, there is a GROWING LIST of African (and S American) countries who are INCREASINGLY LOOKING WEST for investment and support after dealing with Chinese for the past cycle. HUGE OPPORTUNITY right now, and I’M ALL OVER IT…

Vancouver Mining,Commodities & Their Economics

@cintsxv

2 years

Chinese r in every country in Africa bagging up any material with assay able Li besides spodumene if it can b found (lepidolite & petalite) Cant disclose how I know but not hearsay. Lots of experience in China/Africa mining & dont pretend I know whats going on in China.

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

2 years

'STILL UNLOVED'?! MINING IS HATED BY MOST, despite being THE MOST IMPORTANT INDUSTRY when it comes to ENERGY. UNTIL THIS MINDSET CHANGES, the BULL MARKET WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD...

Mining is key to the energy transition, but it's still unloved

Mining is probably the most vital sector to the global energy transition and the success of the much-vaunted net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 targets, but it's currently the laggard in the process.

www.reuters.com

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

INCREDIBLE SILVER intersect at $FIL.TO. The DISTRICT IS GROWING…

Filo Corp.

@Filo_Corp

3 years

Filo Mining reports 64m at 1,214 g/t silver at Filo del Sol, the best intersection of high-grade silver on the project to date! Read the News Release: $FIL.TO #FILyourboots #ImpossibleToIgnore

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

Well, some of us are LASER FOCUSED on it actually…

John Arnold

@JohnArnoldFndtn

3 years

Raw materials will be the constraint on growth this decade and no one is focused on it.

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

2 years

KING COAL has been ‘peaking next year’ for many years. Don’t hold your breath…

Guillaume Fouché

@guillaumefouche

2 years

Coal Use Seen Peaking Next Year as India, China Determine Future Global demand will continue beyond 2050, @BloombergNEF says Rising output led to growing stockpiles, especially in China

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

@miles22402745 A few things to keep in mind: 1) volatility is a two way street, 2) don’t focus on daily P&L, 3) especially in a thinner mkt like tin, daily moves don’t always have a good reason, and 4) decide if you are in a BULL mkt or BEAR mkt, invest accordingly, and let the trades mature.

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

2 years

I would STEER CLEAR of $PBR. Sure, it benefits from EM INFLOWS (big in the indices), and you get some OIL BETA, but the REALIZED OIL PRICE is based on LOCAL FUEL PRICES, which will - ONCE AGAIN - be reduced below int’l markets to stave off LOCAL INFLATION…

Commodities MacGruber

@GoForGrubes2

2 years

A bunch of my fave Twitterers decided to jump into 🇧🇷 Oil... @contrarian8888 @agnostoxxx @Seawolfcap @judahrhodie @mfwarder @YellowLabLife @calvinfroedge @JamesHMackay @_Vd718 @JBLcapital The last time I put together a Team, it started like this...

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

2 years

Lula has an ALLY as the NEW CEO of $PBR, and they’re ALREADY talking about DE-LINKING local FUEL PRICES FROM INT’L PRICES (no surprise) and SHIFTING FOCUS FROM DEEPWATER E&P to RENEWABLES (aka, LOWER MARGINS), and now talking about EXPANDING REFINERIES. DIVIDEND WILL BE CUT…

PiQ

@PiQSuite

2 years

⚠️ BRAZIL'S PETROBRAS WILL PLAY LEADING ROLE TO EXPAND REFINERIES, SAYS NEW ENERGY MINISTER - Full story via Reuters at

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

EXCELLENT overview of the BULL CASE for TIN, written by one of the OG TINBARONS…

🅿🅴🆃🅴

@Pete__Panda

3 years

The case for #Tin , all packed in one post. Enjoy Shout-out to the #tinbarons 🙏

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

GREAT read I stumbled across that discusses some FASCINATING aspects of Eastern European GEOPOLITICS. Time to educate yourselves on the SUWALKI GAP…

Pippa Malmgren

@DrPippaM

3 years

War/Where: The Suwalki Gap (Part 2), by @DrPippaM It's not only Ukraine that is in play. @RUSI_org @USNavy @USNavyEurope @RMASandhurst

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

OIL may be OVER $100 before next summer…

HFI Research

@HFI_Research

3 years

Goldman on gas to oil switch.

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

2 years

NO SURPRISE that $AFM.V DROPPED THE SALE PROCESS. EASILY one of the BEST MINING ASSETS ON EARTH, but ALSO ONE OF THE WORST JURISDICTIONS ON EARTH in Northern Kivu. GOOD LUCK to you TINBARONS who own this...

Alphamin to capture 6% of world tin supply after rejecting option for Bisie trade sale - Miningmx

ALPHAMIN said today that following a strategic review it planned to increase production about 67% from its Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo rather than sell the company. “At this point...

www.miningmx.com

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

This is the GENIUS of IVAN THE GREAT. $GLEN.L bought the rest of CERREJON COAL (66%) for about $588 million, BUT $GLEN.L takes over CASH FLOW from the mine in 2021. SMART AGREEMENT, as they may end up GETTING PAID TO TAKE THE ASSET...

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

2 years

SKILLED LABOR (not capital or geologic resources) is going to be the biggest bottleneck of all from exploration --> development --> mining --> processing of all these battery raw materials that end users anticipate needing.

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

I have no doubt that $FIL.V will outperform $SLS.TO (and likely ALL other #COPPER developers) as time progresses. It was only this February when $FIL.V had a mkt cap of ~$200mm. Big move in a few months. Let it consolidate a bit before it RIPS higher. Buckle up.

Roaring20s

@Dream_S14

3 years

Solaris resources MC $1.55b FILO mining MC $1.05b

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

I am also IN AWE of this market. Depending on the day, ANXIOUS OR EXCITED about the cycle. Jeff Currie NAILS IT when he says 'this is a MOLECULE CRISIS.' The RISING PRICES AND SCARCITY OF ENERGY is a problem for EVERYONE EVENTUALLY...

Goldman commodity veteran says he’s never seen a market like it

www.mining.com

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

1 year

$LUN.TO , $FIL.TO , and $NGEX.V will make this happen, and it won’t be the first time the Lundins are successful in Argentina, after Alumbrera and Veladero…

Daniel

@thelithiumminer

1 year

@stocktalkweekly Argentina has the potential for a five-fold increase in #mining exports in the next decade #lithium has the biggest potential to fuel the increase Fernanda Ávila and several other politicians have assured the #mining community that nationalisation will not be the chosen path.

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

1 year

$THX.V is one to do your work on. Excellent management team proving themselves in a challenging (even for locals!), but prolific jurisdiction - with district-scale potential. The gold comes cheap and the lithium potential comes for free…

Yellow Lab Life Capital

@YellowLabLife

1 year

Why Thor Exploration $thx.v koala? Existing gold producer in Nigeria, NAV of reserves their basically cover 70-80% enterprise value Cool 2nd gold project in Senegal but w/e The Nigerian lithium opportunity is not appreciated by the existing investors that look at the name 1/n

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

1 year

This has been one of the BEST investment themes of the past years. Buy the spin-offs that ‘ESG investors’ are forcing diversified companies to pursue. Not because they aren’t performing financially, but because of optics…

Respeculator

@respeculator

1 year

“There is a one-in-a-generation transfer of value underway from the mining majors BHP and RIO whose boards want out of unfashionable commodities..” 🎯 $WHC.AX

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

1 year

#COPPER $FIL.TO + $NGEX.V – Best mgmt team with a proven track record. Unlocking a district-scale opportunity that might just be bigger than Escondida. $IE – Top mgmt team with excellent assets in the US, good optionality of future US govt support.

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

Energy complex remains STRONG. I know it’s not exactly apples to apples, but this implies over $100/bbl OIL (using 5.8x multiplier), which is where we are headed…

Stephen Stapczynski

@SStapczynski

3 years

Pakistan buys one of the nation's priciest LNG cargoes amid tight global market 🇵🇰 Pakistan State Oil procured a spot shipment for Sept. 26-27 delivery at the equivalent of $17.85/mmbtu. Vitol will supply the cargo The tender closed Aug. 20

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

More evidence of a CYCLICAL SHIFT. $FB down 20%+ on BIG volume yesterday, and up ONLY 2% today. WHO WOULD SLEEP WELL OWNING THIS TRASH OVER THE WEEKEND?! Meanwhile, OIL is at $93 and looking STRONG. BREAKDOWN vs BREAKOUT.

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

GREAT charts illustrating how COMMODITY PRICED GO PARABOLIC when INVENTORIES APPROACH ZERO. Each marginal tonne is all the more valuable…

🅿🅴🆃🅴

@Pete__Panda

3 years

Couldn't see this coming honestly... #Nickel LME Inventory vs Price

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

1 year

Well… I like $FIL.TO and $NGEX.V because the Vicuña is a proven - and still growing - district run by one of the most successful and value-creating mining dynasties in modern history. You find opportunities like this once in a generation.

Neil Ringdahl

@NeilRingdahl

2 years

Which average grade do you prefer? 😏 Also, ask yourself why you are investing in Co's like Filo. 🤔

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

This is the REALITY of global ENERGY markets. Most ESG ‘investors’ DO NOT recognize the fact that a LARGE number of people in EMERGING MARKETS DO NOT have regular access to ELECTRICITY at all…

Anas Alhajji

@anasalhajji

3 years

Regarding long term #oil market outlook: - Electric vehicles are rich countries' phenomenon. - Only rich people in the poor countries might get them as a symbol status or to make a statement & only in big cities. #ElectricVehicle #Nigeria #Africa

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

OIL is the biggest trade out there in my view - to UNDERSTAND and also to PARTICIPATE IN…

Josh Young

@Josh_Young_1

3 years

It's all fun and games until inflation crushes "growth" valuations. "Inflation swindles the equity investor"

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

11 months

I'm not usually one to watch intraday charts, but the price action in $FM.TO after some proper BAD NEWS looks like a good entry level to test here for a long-term position. Scarce #copper asset portfolio and they probably should never have bought Inmet for Cobre Panama anyways.

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

I'd HIGHLY RECOMMEND 'The Powerhouse' by @stevelevine . This a space I'm DEEPLY INVOLVED in, but still managed to learn A LOT in this book - especially regarding the HISTORICAL CONTEXT that brings us to where we are today. Amazing how MANY of these PIVOTAL technologies were

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

1 year

2) Learn to make decisive decisions on your own with limited information. You are putting together a puzzle, often without knowing what the final picture will be, and usually without all the pieces.

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

1 year

$FM.TO looks like good value down here. It’s pricing in a loss of Cobre Panama, but I think that is unlikely. Reminds me of 2010 when DRC expropriated some mines and the stock sold off more than the contribution of those mines - first time I took a big position in the company.

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

I hope $TECK does a SPIN-OFF of these MET COAL ASSETS. That would be worth doing work on...

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

Margin COMPRESSION for MOST sectors. Margin EXPANSION for MOST MINERS/ENERGY. The cycle has turned…

Barbarian Capital

@BarbarianCap

3 years

this might be one of the Q4/2022 guidance themes

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

1 year

5) Use, but don't rely on sell-side research. Their job is different from ours. They sell (directly or indirectly) research, but almost never without conflicted interests/biases. 95% of the time, if a sell-side analyst could pick stocks, they would be on the buy side.

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

2 years

END OF AN ERA at $PMET with JC Evansen stepping down, a friend of mine and someone I REALLY respect professionally. He definitely raised the profile of the company, and at the RIGHT TIME. The FAST AND EASY MONEY has probably already been made with this one…

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

CORRECT. As I have said before, if utilities DO NOT step in, and Sprott + friends/allies are the only ones holding up the physical U market, then the URANIUM sector risks a nasty round trip and dip lower as physical drops. This is NOTHING NEW - seen in other markets.

UrBull

@bull_ur

3 years

I wish someone would answer this question (please no hiding from this honest #uranium question):

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

2 years

PUNISHING THE SUPPLIERS (excess tax on oil & gas producers) while INCENTIVIZING DEMAND (with these ‘anti-inflation’ spending packages) IS GOING TO END IN FAILURE…

Bloomberg Energy

@BloombergNRG

2 years

French President Emmanuel Macron says he backs a European Union-wide windfall tax on the profits of energy companies

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

Maybe a typo in the headline with a four-drink MINIMUM in place. Or $FMG.AX is looking to bring more of a pub-style environment to the workplace...

Fortescue implements four-drink maximum on site - Safe To Work

Fortescue Metals Group will implement several initiatives to enhance the safety, culture and experience across all company workplaces, as a result of feedback from its Workplace Integrity Review.

safetowork.com.au

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

1 year

Many don’t realize that oil supply is a ‘self-healing’ market given average decline rates of 10% (or more) for the average oil field. So if investment isn’t sufficient, production drops anyways. Except now, we are seeing record demand in the face of abysmal investment…

Rory Johnston

@Rory_Johnston

1 year

Latest oil & gas exploration spend outlook from WoodMac Slightly higher to go from here, but never again to see the manic OMG-we're-running-out-of-crude spend of 2006-2015.

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

More good evidence that we are NOT in an ENERGY TRANSITION, but an ENERGY ADDITION scenario…

Ron Bousso

@ronbousso1

3 years

Interesting note from Morgan Stanley looking at why in Norway, where electric vehicles made 64% of new car sales, #oil consumption hasn't declined: - Cars are only 20-25% of oil demand - Fleet turnover is slow - Diesel truck/van sales have grown #OOTT #carbon #ElectricVehicles

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

There has been A LOT of analysis and discussion over the COORDINATED EMERGENCY OIL RELEASE, but there is only ONE THING that really matters - the MARKET REACTION. OIL prices RALLIED ~5% after the announcement of the release. That would be like the NYSE (or MSCI World Index)

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

2 years

With $RIO taking out $TRQ and this, it's clear and obvious that MINING MAJORS WANT MORE COPPER EXPOSURE. Good time to refresh work on ALL COPPER DEVELOPERS + INDEPENDENT MINERS...

Oz Minerals rejects BHP's A$8.4bn offer

Copper miner Oz Minerals has rejected a surprise A$8.4-billion takeover bid from diversified miner BHP. BHP submitted a non-binding indicative proposal to Oz Minerals at the end of last week, to...

www.miningweekly.com

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

#KINGCOAL is only the ‘least liked’ commodity for someone who has an EMOTIONAL view on commodities instead of a FUNDAMENTAL view. The article is full of clueless quotes…

Soaring demand for the world’s least-liked commodity sees thermal coal prices jump 106% this year

The resurgence of thermal coal, which is burned to generate electricity, raises serious questions about the so-called "energy transition."

www.cnbc.com

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

Now, automakers and battery manufacturers will feel the PRESSURE TO VERTICALLY INTEGRATE. The only way to really HEDGE and ENSURE SUPPLY...

Inexorable decline of EV battery prices coming to an end – report

EV battery costs were approaching parity with gas-powered cars, but Benchmark believes decline may be at an end as lithium prices surge 313% in a year and cobalt, nickel prices jump.

www.mining.com

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1

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

1 year

1) Enjoy the process, because the results aren’t always great. Focusing only on daily/monthly or even quarterly/annual P&L will burn you out. The best investors would still research/invest even if the personal $ upside wasn’t there.

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

2 years

Generally true, but in a RISING RIG MARKET, you don’t always want to own the best balance sheet. $RIG should have much more torque…

Christine Guerrero

@SheDrills

2 years

Everyone is always bugging me about $RIG so I found a peer comparison…then I bought $VAL which is bigger and has less debt. Better late than never…revenues only growing higher. $DO $BORR $NE

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

It’s actually called ENERGY INFLATION, and is a direct result of CUTTING INVESTMENT in PRODUCING ENERGY ASSETS to instead DUMP capital into R&D and LOW MARGIN projects that DO NOT CREATE NET ENERGY…

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25

ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

2 years

The rationality of this is what is so notable. Why use USD, which Ghana (and others) don't produce themselves, when you can use your own production of GOLD, OIL, GRAINS, etc. to get what you need. This is the definition of COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE...

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

A few people I'd like to personally thank for this ENERGY COMPLEX BULL MARKET...

0

3

23

ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

2 years

@_indifferentia @TraderPamplona @AfurKnox @respeculator @michaelbhorner @TwinTurboCe1ica @scottiwillo $PNRL.V is looking pretty good to me, and I'm doing some work on it. This one checks a lot of boxes, and the corporate strategy has actually played out as intended.

0

1

24

ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

1 year

7) Understand macro AND micro. Geopolitics and commodity prices can be just as much a driver as company-specific fundamentals, but by the same token, geopolitics and commodity prices should not be the reason you invest and should not be your entire upside/downside thesis.

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28

ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

1 year

#GOLD $KNT.TO – Enormous resource that will likely result in multiple additional discoveries, including copper $THX.V – Great mgmt team in a new mining jurisdiction and steady production growth; free lithium optionality $PDI.AX – Big resource that has upside; likely an M&A target

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

BIG WEEK FOR ARGENTINA! $PAAS $1B+ Navidad SILVER project looks to FINALLY make progress. $LUN.TO plans to acquire $JOSE.TO for ~$500MM for their WORLD-CLASS COPPER/GOLD project. AND $RIO acquires the Rincon LITHIUM brine project for ~$800MM from Sentient PE.

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24

ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

I expect SIMILAR SUCCESS (i.e., DISASTER) with GOVERNMENT-LED 'ENERGY TRANSITION' as we have seen with the GOVT-LED 'WAR ON DRUGS'. CRUSH SUPPLY and PRICES SKYROCKET. Whether cocaine or OIL is being considered, EVERYTHING IS SUPPLY vs DEMAND + UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES.

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23

ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

1 year

4) It is just as important to know when/why you would exit an investment as it is to know why you initially invested. Don’t change your thesis just because the story changes – you need to be able to recognize potential step-changes in company fundamentals, positive or negative.

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

FOOD price INFLATION is not going to be transitory with the other input cost pressures building. FERTILIZERS are either MINED or they are manufactured with PETROCHEMICALS, so they are also linked to the ENERGY COMPLEX...

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

EXCELLENT THOUGHTS HERE. $CCJ is always the most SOBER and CALCULATED of the URANIUM MINERS, largely because THEY UNDERSTAND THE MARKET. Most URANIUM juniors are just beta pigs and promoters, and FEW INVESTORS understand URANIUM'S SPOT VS CONTRACT MARKET.

Yellow Lab Life Capital

@YellowLabLife

3 years

Alright, the koala didn't have to do this but some of you don’t seem to have figured this out yet, so let's have some eucalyptus tea: The Professor is playing chess and Sprott/uranium squeeze crowd are playing checkers 1/n

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

GREAT interview on POLITICAL RISK (mentions $FIL.V and $JOSE.TO) with Lukas Lundin, the BEST IN THE BUSINESS…

LatAm INVESTOR

@LatAmINVESTOR

3 years

Lukas Lundin has spent three decades and billions of dollars investing in Latin American mining. We sat down with the Chairman of Lundin Mining to find the best opportunities in the region. He discuses #Brazil , #Argentina , #Ecuador and #Guatemala .

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

2 years

Call it VERTICAL INTEGRATION or HEDGING, these OEMs are racing towards OWNING THE MINES THEMSELVES at a quickening pace. Nobody wants to be left out in the cold without supplies…

Neil Hume

@humenm

2 years

First Tesla and now Nissan.

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

For all of the HYPE about EV manufacturers REDUCING the amount of COBALT in batteries or using COBALT-FREE batteries, the BEST-SELLING EVs ALL use COBALT in their higher-end battery chemistries...

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

Most people don’t know that the BEST geologists are born RIGHT FROM THE EARTH, already with a PhD…

Corey S. Powell

@coreyspowell

3 years

@andrewflood Reverse it and watch how new geologists are born.

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

Let's welcome NICKEL and ZINC to the CRITICAL MINERALS list - long overdue, especially for NICKEL! Interesting that HELIUM, RHENIUM, STRONTIUM, and POTASH were DROPPED from the list...

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22

ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

There are DEFINITELY some Europeans that are HOPING AND PRAYING for COAL in their stockings this Christmas season…

Stephen Stapczynski

@SStapczynski

3 years

European power prices hit new record highs amid nuclear outages and pricey gas rates 🇩🇪 German power for next year jumped to a high of 335 euros/MWh, following a 25% rally on Tuesday, before slipping back 🇫🇷 The French equivalent rose as much as 2.5% to record of 408 euros

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

@respeculator I'll get a list together of ENERGY and MINING equities that I think are worth doing work on. DOES NOT mean that I own all of them, but they are ALL ON MY WATCHLIST.

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25

ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

What a JOKE…

Bloomberg Energy

@BloombergNRG

3 years

California is asking the federal government to declare an “electric reliability emergency” so the state can burn more fossil fuels to avoid blackouts

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

1 year

9) Nothing beats boots on the ground. Fill up that passport. Site visits, meeting management at their offices (not just at hotels/conferences), and doing channel checks are often more useful than building a model. Talk with private companies AND public companies.

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

2 years

I’ve been busy CORNERING A NICHE NICKEL MARKET, picking up ALL OF THE AVAILABLE COPIES of ‘The Romance of Nickel’, published by INCO (since acquired by @valeglobal ) in the 1950s…

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

Here is a great thread on another CONVENTIONAL OIL producer that is WELL WORTH doing your work on, PetroTal $PTAL.L …

Kingson Heights

@kingsonheights

3 years

1/X | PETROTAL SET TO TAKE OFF IN 2022 With only a couple of days left in 2021, I decided to write a “year-in-review” on Petrotal. 2021 brought some great highlights, some of the usual, but as always: The company grew stronger and are now in a great position… #PTAL #TAL #OOTT

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

@a_mccauley @DavidBCollum @YellowLabLife @and A combination of IRON ORE falling from $220 to under $120 in a few weeks + force majeure at Kennecott COPPER + ongoing issues at Oyu Tolgoi COPPER + rising local opposition at their Jadar LITHIUM project in Serbia + BORING ACCOUNTANT CEO. Maybe $RIO SHOULD BE CHEAP.

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22

ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

Agreed. But don’t be surprised as the URANIUM BUGS broadcast each tick higher. I certainly like the BULL CASE for URANIUM, but there are some URANIUM BUGS who could make even the most staunch GOLD BUGS look soft.

Twain's Mustache

@TwainsMustache

3 years

wake me up at $50+ (might not take too long)

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

Probably a SMART MOVE, but not for the reasons this clown is imagining. By 2030, Canada might need to use their coal to power themselves, so there might be no exports anyways...

Canada to ban thermal coal exports by 2030

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has also committed to impose a hard cap on emissions from the oil and gas sector.

www.mining.com

0

1

22

ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

3 years

China is REDUCING investment commitments to African countries from $60B to $40B as BAD DEBT RISKS GROW. China's soft power is ALREADY WANING on the African continent, and I bet this trend CONTINUES for the Belt & Road Initiative...

China is getting worried about Africa’s indebtedness to it

The recently concluded ministerial level FOCAC meetings held in Dakar, Senegal saw the first decrease in China’s financing pledge to Africa - slashed down to $40 billion from $60 billion.

qz.com

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ColdmanSax

@ColdmanSax

1 year

6) The equity investment itself is only half of your analysis. Understand who your counterpart is and how you have exposure. And understand the capital structure and who holds the debt. Often times, debtholders’ interests are NOT aligned with those of equity holders.

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