Down on the Farm is a newsletter featuring analysis, news, notes and summaries of all things minor league baseball, prospects, and player development ⭕️
Latest Down on the Farm article is out!
@Drew_Haugen
explores batted-ball spray angle and how it can inform a player's approach at the plate. Free and unlocked for everyone to read! 🔥⬇️
Hesitant to post this on Twitter because I know the nuance will be lost, but I think it's worth sharing. Here's each club's drafted WAR relative to the expected value of their pick position from 2010-2019. Cutoff is 2019 to avoid penalizing recently high picking clubs...
Here is a look at drafted WAR by all organizations since 2010. Astros in the lead by quite a bit. The Angels, Tigers, and Yankees have accumulated the least amount of value through the draft. Angels are not last as I previously Tweeted, but they are pretty close to last
I've been spending some time looking at historical draft results. Something I didn't realize was just how little value the Angels have gotten out of the draft since taking Trout in 2009. Since 2010 they've acquired the least value from the draft by far. They are in last by a lot!
Let's try this one more time...here is drafted WAR since 2015 for each organization. Apologize for the earlier tweet that was incorrect, there was a bug in my code. Astros in the clear lead driven by Bregman, Tucker, Pena, Straw. Rockies at the bottom with just Rodgers, Lawrence
For the second year in a row the Rays’ affiliates finished with the best organizational winning percentage (.593). It was a tough season for the White Sox, Royals, and A’s affiliates, which didn’t have a single club finish above .500 this year
All MLB farm systems -- wRC+ by xFIP. You want to be in the lower right quadrant - where the Twins, Cubs, and Yankees are located. The best offensive club (wRC+) has been the Dodgers, the worst has been the Phillies. The Braves have the lowest xFIP, while the A's have the highest
This is obviously not the only way to judge a club's farm system, but good players tend to win games. Here's a look at winning% by organization for Low-A through Triple-A this season. The Rays, Dodgers, and Cubs have the highest winning percentage. The Royals have the lowest
Thanks to
@enosarris
for sharing his Stuff+ data. Here is a look at starting pitcher Stuff+ distributions for all MLB clubs. The rank of the box-plots are ordered by a weighted average of Stuff+ grades. Brewers, Yankees, Astros on top, Rockies, Rangers, Cardinals at the bottom
There is a strong chance I am the only person who thinks this is interesting, but I guess we'll find out 🤷♂️
I wanted to see which organizations had the youngest and oldest players in their farm system (A ➡️ AAA). The Guardians have the youngest group by quite a bit
Here is a look at organizational winning percentage -- Low-A through Triple-A. The Rays minor league affiliates have won 59.6% of their games this season. This comes after last season, when they won 65% of the games they played. The Royals have the lowest winning percentage
Some people have been retweeting this plot we made last year, so I thought I would update it to reflect the end of 2022 season and current season. These are WAR totals for all players the organization drafted, but not necessarily ones that they developed
I'll just continue...since 2015 the schools with the most players to reach the big leagues:
1) Florida - 15
2) Virginia - 13
3) Clemson - 10
4) Louisville - 10
5) Vanderbilt - 10
A few people have asked for this table without MLB records included. Some things to keep in mind: It's only been a month, things change quickly, minor league affiliate win-loss record is not necessarily indicative of organizational talent or the quality of the farm system
Now that April is behind us, let's look at the winning percentages for all organizations across all levels. No surprise, the Dodgers are leading the way and the A's are in dead last, only winning 37% of their games across all levels
Here is a look at organizational winning percentage this season. Always an important caveat: Minor league affiliate win-loss record is not necessarily indicative of organizational talent or the quality of the farm system. But, if you have talent, you tend to win more ballgames 🤷🏻
@EliBenPorat
Never thought I’d say this because I’m as firm a believer in statistics and a data-driven approach as anyone, but did you WATCH Ichiro play baseball?
Here is a look at R&D size and MLB winning percentage. Evaluating the size of R&D groups is an increasingly difficult task, as analysts, data engineers, and developers have gradually been integrated into all baseball departments. Here we used data from club websites in early '22
In today's newsletter: A conversation with
@drewsaylor19
on the Royals hitting philosophy, Vinnie Pasquantino, Nick Pratto, Michael Massey and more...
#TogetherRoyal
Free & unlocked for all to read!
The Rockies, who made zero trades at the deadline, also have the fewest trades since the start of the 2017 season. I thought the Mariners and Jerry Dipoto would top this list, but it's the Rays. They've executed 121 trades since 2017
I've been spending some time looking at historical draft results. Something I didn't realize was just how little value the Angels have gotten out of the draft since taking Trout in 2009. Since 2010 they've acquired the least value from the draft by far. They are in last by a lot!
Here is a look at Stuff+ for MLB starters by relievers for each club. Rockies are removed because Stuff+ is not adjusted for altitude and they are really, really low for both ⬇️🔥
Below are swing rates by organization (AA + AAA). There is a fairly noticeable difference between the orgs at the top and the bottom. For example, HOU swing percentage is just 43%, while MIA is 49%
Maryland state Treasurer Dereck Davis: “If John [Angelos] can hear me now, it’s deeply disappointing and troubling that you could look your state in the eye and outright lie to us about your intentions."
Here is a look at hitters in the Cubs farm system by wRC+. They've have a strong offensive season across their system, led by prospects like Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kevin Alcantara, Kevin Made, and James Triantos
#ItsDifferentHere
Tomorrow's newsletter will feature an interview with Royals hitting coordinator Drew Saylor. We talked about a few of their young hitters, but here is a look at all hitters in the Royals system by wRC+ (minimum 80 plate appearances)
#TogetherRoyal
More than 50% of that value for the Astros is from Springer, Correa, and Bregman. It helps to draft near the top for a few years, but you also can't make mistakes when you pick towards the top
The Nationals finished the 2022 season with the 5th worst run differential (-252) since 2012. The Dodgers had the best run differential (+334). Here is a look at every club over the past 10 seasons
The Seattle Mariners traded RF Frankie Tostado to Washington Nationals. Tostado, 24, slashed .284 / .330 / .459 (113 wRC+) across 375 Double-A plate appearances last season
The top minor league winning percentage amongst all organizations will likely go down to the wire this season. The Rays won by a large margin in 2022 and still have a chance to finish on top this year 💪. It's been a brutal year for White Sox, Royals, A's, and Nats fans 😕
Bretty Baty had a huge month. He slashed .365/.435/.688 (201 wRC+) with 8 homers and 7 doubles. He finished the month with a 20% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate. Baty had 13 multi-hit games
#LGM
Mets third base prospect Brett Baty has been named the July MiLB Player of the Month for the Double-A Eastern League.
Baty hit. 365/.435/.688 and led the league in home runs (eight) and RBI (27).
Minor League games pick back up today for the first time in nearly a week. Here is a look at organizational wRC+ rankings so far this season. Dodgers and Rockies are the top offensive clubs, Phillies and Angels are at the bottom. Keep in mind these numbers aren't park adjusted 🏟
Here's a look at win total distributions for big league clubs from 2010-2022, sorted by winning%. The length of the bar gives you a sense of the extremes for each organization. The Cardinals have been remarkably consistent. The Padres and Rockies have been consistently bad.
34 pitchers had a K-rate above 30% this season (Min. 100 IP). Only 6 pitchers finished with a K-rate above 30% and a BB-rate below 6% — Brandon Pfaadt (ARI), Brant Hurter (DET), Tanner Bibee (CLE), Wilmer Flores (DET), Jack Leftwich (CLE), and Brent Headrick (MIN) 🔥
Here is a look at total wins across all full-season levels (A, A+, AA, AAA, MLB) in 2022. The Dodgers and Rays tied for the most overall wins with 408. The lowest win total belonged to the A's
Thanks to
@enosarris
for sharing his STUFF+ grades for the PCL. Here is a quick look at STUFF+ at an organizational level. Keep in mind that STUFF+ is scaled so that 100 is MLB average.
To read more, please check out my post:
An early look at MLB run differential. Rays = great pitching, great hitting. A's = poor pitching, poor hitting. You want your team in the top right quadrant
First attempt at building a visual template for displaying percentile rankings for MiLB players. Here is a look Cardinals' prospect Tink Hence's (RHP) percentile rankings in the Florida State League in 2022
Wyatt Mills RHR has bounced between Tacoma (AAA) and Seattle this year. In 16 AAA games he has a 1.83 (3.95 FIP). Mills was a 3rd round pick out of Gonzaga in 2017. William Fleming RHP, an 11th round pick last year out of Wake Forest, has a 4.92 ERA (5.14 FIP) in 14 starts (LowA)
We have acquired RHPs Wyatt Mills and William Fleming from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for INF Carlos Santana and cash considerations.
Mills has been added to the 40-man roster and will be optioned to Omaha (AAA), Fleming will be assigned to Quad Cities (High A).
Three straight games with a homer for Vinnie Pasquantino!
The No. 4
@Royals
prospect cranked his 15th roundtripper of the year for the
@OMAStormChasers
:
In today's newsletter we talked with Driveline founder Kyle Boddy (
@drivelinebases
). Here's what he had to say about hitting development and what Nolan Arenado wanted when he came to Driveline. You can read the full conversation here:
Royals newly acquired RHP Beck Way (23) - KC (A+) went 6 innings today, giving up 3 runs on 3 hits. The 23-year-old walked 2 and struck out 7 batters. Way got 14 swing and misses on 81 pitches
#TogetherRoyal
A few people have said that all STL value they acquired through the draft was traded away, but that's not really true. While they did trade some international talent, the've kept most of their drafted talent...
Edman - 14.4
Bader - 13 (85% with STL)
DeJong - 10.6
Carlson - 5.5
This is random but something I noticed, the 2016 draft has an incredible amount of later round picks who have become extremely valuable big leaguers:
Shane Bieber - pick 122 - 20 WAR
Corbin Burnes - pick 111 - 16 WAR
Tommy Edman - pick 196 - 14 WAR
Sean Murphy - pick 83 - 15 WAR
What prospects have potentially changed their approach this year? Here's a look at the hitters with the biggest changes in their swing rate between 2021-2022. One that stands out is Ezequiel Tovar (COL) who has dropped his swing rate by nearly 10%
Jackson Chourio (18) is now hitting .302 / .356 / .573 with 20 home runs this year. He's slashing .252 / .320 / .514 (125 wRC+) in 125 plate appearances since being promoted to High-A
Incredibly stupid to not feature the
#FuturesGame
and have it widely accessible. Maybe it's a good idea to showcase the next group of star players in the game 🤷♂️
@enosarris
Papierski's 90th percentile exit velo is 98 mph with a steep angle. Plate discipline is above average (chase is 24%) and makes a lot of contact, it will be interesting to watch him after going to SF
Through 4/23, here is a look at organizational winning percentage, Low-A through Triple-A. The Brewers have the highest winning percentage at nearly 63%, while the Angels have the worst, winning only 35% of their games
We're currently working on our annual list of the top available Minor League Free Agents -- that post will drop on Thursday, but here is an early look at the list of position players sorted by OPS. Some may have already signed (re-signed) - drop it in replies if so!
@BenLindbergh
From today's newsletter:
"Brett Baty (22) - NYM (AA) continues to dominate in Double-A. Yesterday he was 2 for 3 with a home run and two walks. He’s hitting .312 / .406 / .544 with 19 homers this year and seems more than ready for Triple-A."
Mets are promoting third base prospect Brett Baty and pitching prospect José Butto to Triple-A Syracuse.
Baty has a .950 OPS, 19 home runs, and 59 RBIs in Double-A this year.
Butto has a 4.00 ERA and 10.5 K/9 innings for Double-A Binghamton.
The South Bend Cubs win the Midwest League title, beating Lake County 2 games to 1. They were 34-32 in the 1st half, but won the MWL Western Division in the 2nd half w/ a 39-26 record. After joining South Bend on 6/1, Pete Crow-Armstrong slashed .287/.333/.498 (126 wRC+)
@SBCubs
Messing around with some plots...here is swing rate by called-strike rate for MLB hitters. It's fairly obvious there is a strong association between swing rate and called strike rate. It's still always interesting to see who is on the edges of these plots --Juan Soto, of course
Stuff+ and PitchingBot models mostly agree in 2023. A few pitchers where there is a discrepancy? Adam Wainwright, Aaron Civale, Cristopher Sánchez, Luis Castillo, to name a few
Perhaps under the radar a bit, but the Brewers Noah Campbell (AA) has been highly impressive this year. This month he's 21-53 (.396 / .508 / .679) while walking (17%) nearly as much as he is striking out (18%). That's a wRC+ of 211!
#ThisIsMyCrew
Wyatt Mills has a very unique delivery with an extremely low release point. Here is a piece I wrote on estimating release points in the PCL - Mills was among the lowest in the PCL
We have acquired RHPs Wyatt Mills and William Fleming from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for INF Carlos Santana and cash considerations.
Mills has been added to the 40-man roster and will be optioned to Omaha (AAA), Fleming will be assigned to Quad Cities (High A).
What a day at the plate for Drew Waters (KC) -- he went 3-3 with two walks and a homer off Jacob deGrom 💯. Waters was acquired by the Royals last month from the Braves in exchange for the 35th pick in the 2022 MLB draft
#TogetherRoyal
@beloitskycarp
Cody Morissette with another strong game tonight, 2-4 with 2 doubles and a walk. After a slow start to the season, he's slashed .265/.393/.571 with 3 home runs and 6 doubles in May
In today's newsletter, I talk with Brewers hitting coordinator
@BDel_Chiaro
. Among the many topics we discussed -- setting up a game-like training environment, Jackson Chourio's strike zone discipline, Sal Frelick, and the role of the hitting coordinator
Welcome Drew Haugen (
@Drew_Haugen
), who is making his first post here at Down on the Farm! Drew dives into some work he's been doing looking at swing decisions ⬇️
The pitch clock reduced MiLB game times from 2021 -> 2022 by 21 minutes, on average. It's worth noting though that the smallest reductions happened at the highest levels. The average AAA game time was reduced by 17 minutes, but High-A saw a change of 29 minutes. Thoughts?
I know the season is not over, but looking at win total distributions for the past 10 years and it's interesting to see how much of an outlier 2023 has been for historically successful clubs like the Cardinals and Yankees. Rockies & Angels standout for their consistent mediocrity
Here is a look at the number of prospects on the
@fangraphs
pre-season top 100 list for each club over the past 6 years. This was inspired by a visual
@tdylf
created several years ago using the Baseball America top 100. The Orioles & Rangers had the most this year with 6 each
Most MiLB teams have played more than 40 games at this point, so let's take a look at the organizational rankings by win-loss record. Here are all 30 organizations, ranked by total wins. The Cubs, Dodgers, and Brewers are on top so far:
Today's post is free and unlocked! We sat down with Driveline founder Kyle Boddy (
@drivelinebases
) to talk about player development, the restructuring of the minor leagues, the role of the pitching coordinator and more...
Mets two-way prospect Nolan McLean has three hits tonight for High-A Brooklyn, including a double and his 4th homer.
As hitter: 1.000 OPS
As pitcher: 2.84 ERA
What makes a launch angle good? Contextualizing batted-ball profiles by understanding the relationship between batter launch angle and exit velocity 🔥⚾️⬇️
@Drew_Haugen
This is certainly something organizations struggle with, especially ones that aren't confident in their ability to unlock certain skills in players. It's a symptom of poor processes and decision making. I've seen it firsthand.