A BTC thesis: The Panda Renaissance.
This piece is the culmination of 3-months of research on Bitcoin.
Expect rich data, analyses, & PoVs on BTC as a currency, asset, and L1, along with the latest technological, institutional, & market catalysts.
👉
IT HAS ARRIVED! “An Honest Report on Web3 Data & Storage,” the first-of-its-kind, 34-slide primary research report to systematically, objectively, and exhaustively assess the decentralized storage space by interviewing 30+ leading experts over 50+ sessions
Serious question: what’s stopping
#STX
@Stacks
from being the next ETF?
1. SEC stamped non-security token
2. BTC yield generating
3. Inherit BTC security
4. Levered up BTC bet with real utility
5. Ecosystem has undergone decentralization
@muneeb
@andrerserrano
@kyleellicott
Finally pushed out this research piece on Business Models in MEV on
@theBlockcrunch
. Expect insights on
1. Why Flashbots is bad biz today
2. How it can be good biz tmrw
3. Emerging trends
4. Concluding predictions
TLDR - a thread
This marks the end of a major chapter and the start of another.
I'm excited to announce that I have joined
@evanbfish
at
@PortalVentures
as an Investment Partner.
Not a buzzword soup: here are the four tangible reasons why AI needs web3.
Over the past few weeks, I researched the intersection between blockchain and AI and found four critical pillars
Here’s the blogpost tldr 🧵
9/15
The BTC “tribes” (outline below)
1.
@Stacks
- The ONLY altcoin that yields BTC via staking
- The dominant general-purpose Bitcoin L2 - first mover advantage
- A true ecosystem
- Compliant token
- Tokenomics
- Major catalysts in Q1: sBTC, Nakamoto, EVM & Rust-VM subnets
Thrilled for
@PortalVentures
to lead
@bimabtc
’s pre-seed round. Our thesis is simple: stablecoins on BTC need to happen but have not. After screening most startups in the space,
@bimabtc
distinctly stood out for their
- exceptional founder-market fit as a group of BD machine
-
TON seems to have become a topical trends among investors lately, but I struggle to see how VCs have a place in this eco. Having usage/PMF doesn’t automatically make something venture backable. Imo the formula goes
Investable = PMF + need capital to reach maturity & GTM + long
With all this ZK frenzy, I wonder how many know Filecoin has been using ZK-SNARKs for its proof of replication as part of the data dealing process for years 🤷🏻♀️
And NOT make a big deal out of it
No Bitcoin Ordinal trading isn’t the same as ETH - and there’s a reason wh y there are only low single-digit Ordinal trading platforms to date.
Here’s a chart put together by
@ordinaldude
of
@ordinalhive
to compare
As the first backer of Arch & having witnessed its progress since inception, we now have a new definition of what it feels like to be on a rocket ship.
@Evanbfish
@PortalVentures
Arch is proud to be building and innovating in the Bitcoin ecosystem, alongside some of the industry's top funds and strategic partners.
Announcing the closing of our seed round led by
@multicoincap
, hear what they have to say about us:
"Arch Network's emergence is a direct
What a fun session geeking out on web3 data & centralized computing! Can’t wait for the video to come out and big shout out to the all-star panelists
@storj
@ankr
@Filecoin
and amazing host
@computecoinnet
!
I still believe “Blockchain” the TECH can be decoupled from “cryptocurrency,” at least for enterprise use cases
In my consulting days writing Blockchain PoCs for F500s, the distinct value-add are
1. Disintermediate
2. Automate
3. Verifiability
Which of ^ actually needs token?
Been seeing interesting overlaps between RWA & DePIN because both touch on offchain assets. Where do we draw the line when they ll both have tokens?
A startup is RWA when token=digital representation of asset (whether it’s financial assets like bonds or physical assets like
Not a buzzword soup: here are the four tangible reasons why AI needs web3.
Over the past few weeks, I researched the intersection between blockchain and AI and found four critical pillars
Here’s the blogpost tldr 🧵
Been noticing a lot of founders in web3 building “features” vs. “products”. What’s the difference? One is monetizable hence investable vs. the other can accrue usage but not value. Why this matters? A thread 1/8
Beyond ideology: Three Material Benefits of Decentralized Infrastructure in Web3
1. Cheaper and potentially more performant
2. Lay the bedrock for new categories of innovation
3. Unlock closed doors, so to speak
Let’s dive in & full thesis here
1/13
Lots of Decentralized GPU craze but what constitutes a MOAT for these “
@gensynai
” of the world when all go them are essentially marketplaces between computer power <> compute jobs?
Hint: access to supply side, aka GPUs/CPUs
Imo, the winner shall exhibit below key traits
1.
Heard some people compare Block Reward to CAC - I think differently & here’s how
- Miners/Validators = capital asset
- Block reward = capital depreciation
- CAC = costs to attract builders (hackathons, grants, community, marketing)
From spitballing with
@evanbfish
- a thread
Candidly speaking I have a hard time buying into the grandiose vision of AIML/LLM on chain - more than happy to be proven wrong here but hear me out
1. LLM need data + algorithm + GPU
2. Big tech has supply advantage to all of the above (and maybe that’s what we are trying to
Coined a new term today. DePAT = Decentralized Physical Asset Tokenization, at the intersection of DePIN and RWA.
As crypto turns into a fiction novel with all the hype narratives, could DePAT be another cavalry to turn crypto real?
Been seeing interesting overlaps between RWA & DePIN because both touch on offchain assets. Where do we draw the line when they ll both have tokens?
A startup is RWA when token=digital representation of asset (whether it’s financial assets like bonds or physical assets like
Getting ready for a bustling crypto summer in NYC - starting to get some IRL Penn Quaker Alum & friends events going locally & at conferences.
Action: fill this form out for invites or interest in sponsoring
@PennBlockchain
Brain food for everyone: here's a running repository of great reads/research/resources/mental models in crypto & venture since 2022.
Continuously updating - feel free to suggest adds
Why I still stand with Fat Protocol in 2023 - A recap of the evolution of the Fat Protocol thesis to date & why it's still the most directional and relevant thesis
Full read here:
UX Rant:
@WeChatApp
still blows
@telegram
out of the water even w/o the mini-apps functions
As a native user of WeChat, I’ve been “forced” to use
@telegram
cuz crypto &
@WhatsApp
cuz MBA. I can definitely tell you that these “wannabe WeChats” have a LONG WAY to go - a thread
Super thrilled to announce that the Annual Penn Blockchain Conference will be brought to you in person at the beautiful Penn Campus on Feb 10-12, 2023.
RSVP
@PennBlockchain
@Penn
@Wharton
@ChundaMcCain
Today scope of NFT is confined to the financialization of “digital goods”
@__vaporware__
expands scope of NFT to the financialization of “digital events”
In FOUR days! See you this Friday & Saturday (2/23 & 2/24) at
@PennBlockchain
Conference for the largest student & alumni-run Digital Assets & Blockchain Conference!
Expect heavy-hitting panelists from the top of their fields across startups, Wall Street, and Venture Capital.
MBA exams are like EIP4844
Pre-exam cram -> batching learning from literal zero knowledge
Taking exam -> posting & settling formula & theory blobs
5 min after exam -> blobs pruned 🙃
Currently doing a research piece on "the future of web3 storage: the battle of decentralized vs. centralized storage." If you are an expert or a founder in the space, please DM - would love to chat & potentially feature what you are building
@Filebase
@DavidVorick
@zixuanzh
1/
On behalf of
@PennBlockchain
& commissioned by professor
@kwerb
, we are compiling a Upenn/Wharton Crypto Network Registry of Penn alum & friends for ongoing university & alumni engagements
4b/
Monetization option 2: tokenize SUAVE w/ two possible designs + tradeoffs
option 1. governance token (mellow and avoid user friction)
option 2. utility/fee token (increase BD/adoption risk but comes with higher upside too)
or some hybrid
see pros vs. cons in article
IT IS LIVE 🔥: The Flagship Penn Blockchain Conference & Hackathon official website is now live at ! Check out our world-class lineup of crypto A listers!
Ticket is free and everyone is welcome to join: RSVP on the website
My daily best
"there are so much to learn dude. i have a dream of just sitting on a beach, tan, and read.
MLK would judge my dream, but it's THE dream”
2/
Overall, my view on the business viability of MEV went from optimistic → pessimistic → euphoric after this 6-week binge
mental journey below
-> “Exciting - 1B Rev already”
-> “Wait Flashbots made no money - is there no value accrual?”
-> “Wow tons of $$ oppo coming up”
Excited to announce the Harvard Blockchain Conference on April 13-14, Sat & Sun!
We're thrilled to have a lineup of top [INVESTOR] speakers joining us. Explore the latest trends and insights in crypto investment. Secure your spot now and network with industry leaders!
“The battle between every startup and the incumbent comes down to whether the startup gets distribution before the incumbent gets innovation” – Alex Rampell
Not this time. Incumbents in the AI era have both innovation & distribution - how can startups win?
2/15
A content preview
1. The uncanny resemblance between Pandas and BTC
2. Why BTC, why now?
3. Making Bitcoin “capital efficient” vs. “programmable”
4. An analysis of various approaches (new + long-standing) to Bitcoin’s productivity
5. Emerging directions that excite us
This is fascinating: been told by many data-centric web3 entrepreneurs that a common reject reason from VCs is “they don’t get what what are doing” or "can't DD"
So what are we talking about when we make “self-sovereignty” a tagline in our thesis book?
Been spending a lot of time with
@evanbfish
noodling on exactly what's unique about web3 business models. Imo 3 buckets of crypto startups I see
1. Apply web2 biz model to web3 TAM
2. Building features vs. products
3. Protocol as a business model (the "net-new” biz model)
Been noticing a lot of founders in web3 building “features” vs. “products”. What’s the difference? One is monetizable hence investable vs. the other can accrue usage but not value. Why this matters? A thread 1/8
Honored to moderate Wharton’s first Metaverse Industry Talk with esteemed thought leaders like
@jamie247
from
@OVioHQ
and Brandon Hoffman 👾 🍌 from
@SamsungNext
This is an open event for everyone! Don’t forget to RSVP to get access into the Metaverse platform
@GamerjibeSocia
6/15
There are two directions we see: making BTC more…
A. capital efficient (make more panda babies)
by extending BTC’s identity as digital gold & creating basic financial products while minimizing risks.
E.g. trustless staking, L2s, BTC-backed stablecoin
Breakpoint is always buzzing - can’t wait to share Portal’s latest protocol investing perspectives on stage at
@SolanaConf
#Breakpoint2023
Grab your tix here -> Oct 30-Nov 3
See you in Amsterdam!
This report is NOT sponsored or commissioned by any organization and is intended to be impartial & factual. It is produced purely based on my intellectual curiosity about this promising but under-valued space, with the goal to collect and propagate the latest, most accurate info
In the context of onboarding normies, what if the premise of “the more trustless the better” is wrong? What if the “trust” element in the current system is a feature not a bug? What if users entrust their assets to others because
1. They don’t trust themselves to not make “human
5/15
Why can't we just leave BTC alone? 6 arguments are explored
1. The lure of liquidity influx
2. To counter security erosion from BTC halving
3. Macro catalysts
4. Merits of UTXO model
5. Undeniable demand for BTC blockspace that status quo can’t support
6. BTC Brand equity
Been spending a lot of time thinking about AI x Crypto
This week,
@curiouscatwang
drops one of the more comprehensive posts on the topic for
@theBlockcrunch
:
Full article:
7/15
B. programmable (train/genetically modify pandas to work)
by morphing BTC’s identity toward a general-purpose, performant chain like Ethereum or Solana.
e.g. complex DeFi & leveraging, bridging & interop with other chains, gaming/consumer play on BTC
Ion Protocol recently reached $10M in total deposits!
And today, Ion is open on mainnet!
Read more below for Ion’s official referral program.
Let’s scale together ⬇️
@_JonahB_
@Stacks
@muneeb
@andrerserrano
@kyleellicott
Might be unpopular opinion here but Skeuomorphism from ETH isnt the way imo. BTC has its own nativity, taxonomy, liquidity profile, technical limitation that spurs its own dev culture (indexing means a totally different thing on BTC vs. ETH, metaprotocols, L2 etc.)
4/15
Now, let’s revisit some popular arguments against making BTC productive
1. BTC should be a store of value
2. Wrapped BTC (WBTC) has a lukewarm product-market-fit
3. The Bitcoin chain is not designed for programmability
& counter to each in the article.
3/15
We all love pandas. They are adorable and of limited supply due to their genetic reproductive problems. There isn't much they can do due to biological design.
But here’s an idea: what if we make Pandas more productive? Now, replace “panda” with “BTC” - it still works.
👉L1s: nation
👉L2s & ecosystems: state
👉Dapps: companies that can grow to a state w/ enough users
👉L1/L2 gas: federal/state tax
👉Staking yield: bond
👉Miner: citizen - work while moonlighting as security guards
👉MEV: capitalism
👉Flashbots: SEC
5/ Section 3: MEV trends to watch
1. cross-chain MEV: flashloan like
@AaveAave
to provide liquidity for arbitrageurs; monitoring tools; Flashbots getting into bridging; escrow service for non-atomic executions
2. EIP 4337: order book for user intent
1/14 A new mental model to help wrap your mind around
#ERC4337
: 4337 adds a new “user intent layer” upstream/on top of the existing transaction flow.
The big unlock (for me at least): working backwards from the current Ethereum EOA model. 🧵
Realizing the Modular stack is turning into a Paradox of Choice problem as written in the book by
@BarrySchwartzBW
TLDR of the book is,
When the number of choices increases, so does the difficulty of knowing what is best. Instead of increasing our freedom to have what we want,
NEW POD: The Future of Bitcoin Smart Contracts
We sat down with
@proofofmud
&
@0xfinetuned
to unpack:
- Taproot & Ordinals enabling Bitcoin DeFi
-
@ArchNtwrk
's approach to Bitcoin smart contracts
- Parallel processing on Bitcoin
- Security vs. programmability
2/2
I see two types of “killer” apps
1. Subsidized (basically all the breakout dapps to date: defi, play to earn/Stepn, NFT all tied to $$)
2. Organic (ACTUALLY functionally superior like a Notion vs. Gdoc)
#1
played out. The Q is, will
#2
ever be a thing in crypto?
1/ Today, centralized tech companies own + control apps, capturing trillions in value. Tokens offer an alternative.
We’re starting to see tokens change the way consumers interact with the products that they use. My new piece for
@Collab_Currency
.
Epiphany: evolution of biz model = reclassification of “human cost”
1. Goods & Service model = human cost as COGS
2. Software model = human cost as OPEX
E. Protocol model = human cost as revenue driver. more dev -> more onchain activity -> more protocol rev
3c/
Consideration
#3
, tons of alternative solutions to MEV, namely
- MEV-prevention: RFQ DEX (
@hashflow
), MEV-conscious DEX (
@CoWSwap
), and new liquidation system (Maker, Euler)
- Partial MEV boost with
@eigenlayer
- Private Order Flow (POF) more on this later
3a/ MEV TAM
Consideration
#1
, Flashbots’ TAM is being squeezed by upcoming ETH native MEV features + L2 rollups cuz
1. ETH ll enshrine MEV features at protocol level
PBS, PEPC, crList, and mempool encryption, etc. e.g. MEV Boost = band-aid solutions = will be displaced by PBS
4a/
Monetization option 1: turn off fee switch and accrue $ to equity
In short, NGMI cuz MEV is too commoditized with mercenary participants. Bertrand (undifferentiated price competition) is not fun