dbRaevn @dbRaevn Twitter profile

Pinned Tweet

dbRaevn

2 years

Many of my previous outbreak maps, charts and diagrams are available here, along with a listing of all official covid-19 data sources: 🌐

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

All 10 unlinked cases from today in VIC have been linked.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

There have been more cases in NSW in the last 6 days than the entire VIC 2nd wave.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

Yesterday, Victoria performed more vaccinations then the rest of the country combined.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

I'm going to lock in the following predictions for reaching the roadmap targets in Victoria: 🔴Phase B💉70% 16+: 🗓Thursday 21st October 🟡Phase C💉80% 16+: 🗓Friday 29th October That's 5 & 13 days from now. We can do this Victoria!

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

🗺VIC COVID-19 Map - Situation at lockdown #COVID19vic This map shows what was known and unknown when the Victorian lockdown started. Green = already known Yellow = already acquired infection, but not yet known Orange = unknow acquisition/possibly acquired after lockdown

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

Since the NSW Bondi outbreak began, 97% of all local cases in Australia, and 66% of local cases outside of NSW, are linked to that outbreak.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

Good news for the 5 unlinked cases in today's VIC numbers: - 3 have already been linked - 2 are from the same household (Lygon Street residential tower) and remain under investigation, but "highest risk" close contacts of these people have all tested negative.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

〽VIC COVID-19 Case Discovery Chart - 25th July 2021 #COVID19vic

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

Total cases in Australia will reach 1,000,000 tomorrow, with more than half of these recorded in the last week.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

At current rates, VIC will reach 80% 1st dose coverage for the 12-15 age group before NSW.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

NSW Outbreak Map - 26th June 2021 #COVID19nsw #COVID19NSWData

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

🧵VIC - Outbreak progression #COVID19Vic It can be easy to treat the current outbreak in VIC as a single cluster, and compare it to how we expect others to progress. A simple chart like this tells a concerning story of growth: This thread shows why this outbreak is different 🔽

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

🗺NSW Bondi outbreak and interstate spread 16th June - 11th August #COVID19Aus , #COVID19NSW

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

A big thanks to Jeroen and the Vic Health team for the detail given on the cases in yesterday's press conference. Being able to visualise the chains of transmission lets people "see" the outbreak in a way that isn't possible with case numbers alone. @MartinFoleyMP @VictorianCHO

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

Australia has reported more covid deaths so far in 2022 than during 2020.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

I'll do a full breakdown later, but did want to share this now as it's good news that was glossed over a bit in the VIC press conference: 🔗8 of the previously unlinked cases have been linked. That brings the total for previous days down from 24 to 16

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

Does this mean Victoria has turned a corner? Not quite, and the outcome is still not clear. But there's much more reason to be optimistic when looking into the detail then when just looking at the high level view, and it explains why the progression may not be as expected so far.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

📊VIC - Proportion of active cases by age group Compared to proportion of population and vaccination rate 30th August 2021 #COVID19Vic

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

All I want for Christmas is a 2022, not a 2020 (2).

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

2 years

Australia has passed 1,000 reported COVID-19 deaths in 2023. This is a week earlier than the same in 2022, and it took 45 weeks into 2021 to reach that figure; COVID-19 deaths in 2020 remained under 1,000 (912). Total deaths from the pandemic in Australia have now passed 18,000.

dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

2 years

📊AUS - Deaths

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

2 years

2,000 people are dying from COVID-19 in Australia per month. There have been 14,000 deaths since the start of the pandemic.

dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

2 years

📊AUS - Deaths

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

Would anyone at any of the recent superspreading events have been classified as a close contact under the new definition?

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

2 years

Change in weekly cases - 🟦NSW: 🔺13.7% 🔵VIC: 🔺24.4% 🟤QLD: 🔻23.6% 🟡WA: 🔺18.1% 🔴SA: 🔺11.4% 🟢TAS: 🔺27.2% ⚪ACT: 🔺26.3% 🟠NT: 🔺1.9% ⚫Australia: 🔺10.0%

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

💉VIC fully vaccinated % for 12-15 has overtaken NSW VIC: 76.31% (🔺1.17%) NSW: 75.68% (🔺0.26%)

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

💉All LGAs in regional Victoria are 95%+ vaccinated (2 doses)

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

5 months

With such limited weekly covid information now available, I have decided to end the weekly state overviews. I'll still continue to provide some data going forward - such as Aged Care reporting and some monthly reporting (especially from ABS) - but it will be less frequent.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

No new exposure sites in Victoria in >24 hours.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

💉Australia has fully vaccinated 80% of 12+ population

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

💉In the last 2 weeks, more than 10% of Australians age 16+ have had a vaccination (1st or 2nd dose). And the rate continues to increase.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

🗺VIC COVID-19 transmission diagram - 16th July 2021 For each case: - Shows location and potential date(s) of infection - Show potential and known infectious periods - Shows when test returned positive, and when the case would have been isolating

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

💉40% of Australians 16+ are fully vaccinated

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

State breakdown: NSW: 22,152 VIC: 96,337 QLD: 19,251 WA: 24,494 TAS: 10,048 SA: 7,107 ACT: 4,845 NT: 1,508 This is largely due to NSW having a public holiday yesterday, but it's still an achievement.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

Victorian Outbreak Map - 4th June 2021 #COVID19Vic #Covid19VicData

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

〽 COVID-19 Bunnings index 10th August 2021 #COVID19Aus Tracks how many unique Bunnings' store-dates are in the exposure site list across VIC and NSW.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

For those who think Victoria's contact tracers are behind

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

🗺VIC COVID-19 Map - 18th July 2021 #COVID19vic

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

@juliette_io There have been 27 Delta outbreaks and interstate incursions/clusters in Australia. 16 of these are no longer active, and a further 7 have been effectively stopped.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

1 year

Some personal news, which I don't usually bore you all with but in this case it's relevant - I've started a new job this week! Unfortunately this means for now at least my Friday Covid updates (and other general daytime tweeting) may be delayed until later in the evening.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

2/2/22 2:22:22pm

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

VIC onwards transmission - 19th July 2021 Cases - Transmissions (each) 58 ⇒ 0 6 ⇒ +1 2 ⇒ +2 1 ⇒ +3 1 ⇒ +4 1 ⇒ +7 (H3) 1 ⇒ +8 (M7) 1 ⇒ +12 (M4) 1 ⇒ +23 (M13) Only 19% of cases have transmitted to others 60% of transmissions come from 4% of cases

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

So rather than view this outbreak as a single cluster, it can make more sense if we break it down into the main clusters, as they are fairly independent:

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

2 years

There have now been over 10,000 COVID-19 deaths recorded in Australia since the start of the pandemic. Current rate is 1,000 every 3 weeks.

dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

2 years

📊AUS - Deaths

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

Jeroen: "The Shepparton outbreak is not as yet genomically or otherwise connected into what we are seeing in Melbourne ... Is that a new incursion in from NSW? Is it some kind of other connection point between the existing outbreak we've known about? We don't have that data"

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

Victorian Outbreak Map - 1st June 2021 #covid19vic

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

Victoria has only ~38,935 2nd doses to perform today before it hits the 70% fully vaccinated target.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

There are many Pfizer appointments available across Victoria in the next week - consider bringing forward your 2nd dose if able. The more people that bring their 2nd doses forward to 3 weeks, the faster Victoria hits its roadmap targets of 70% and 80%.

COVID-19 Near Me - Find vaccine clinics & exposure sites

Find vaccination clinics nearby and keep track of exposure sites across Australia and New Zealand

covid19nearme.com.au

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

🗺VIC COVID-19 Map - 14th July 2021 #COVID19vic - Includes information known about tomorrow's cases

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

860 is the lowest number of new daily cases in Victoria since 27th September.

Victorian Department of Health

@VicGovDH

3 years

We thank everyone who got vaccinated and tested yesterday. Our thoughts are with those in hospital, and the families of people who have lost their lives. More data soon: #COVID19Vic #COVID19VicData

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

1 year

Victoria appear to have reversed their decision to stop state covid reporting, with the covid data page receiving an update this morning with data up until last Thursday.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

Victoria is now ahead of NSW in 1st dose vaccination coverage for the 12-15 age group. VIC: 78.53% NSW: 78.27%

dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

At current rates, VIC will reach 80% 1st dose coverage for the 12-15 age group before NSW.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

NSW Outbreak Map - 27th June 2021 #COVID19nsw #COVID19NSWData

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

2 years

During the last week, Australia recorded it's 16,000th COVID-19 death since the start of the pandemic.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

1 year

4.7 magnitude earthquake 29km north of Melbourne.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

Across all cases in the Victoria outbreak: - 16 cases are partially vaccinated - 5 cases are fully vaccinated All of the above are either asymptomatic or experiencing only mild symptoms.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

A third of all under investigation cases in Victoria have been changed to linked since yesterday - 2,717 cases.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

1 year

Very similar to an outbreak in July 2021 in Queensland. A student became infected, and it rapidly spread to 143 cases within 3 weeks. - 6 cases in the initial household - 12 cases at a high school and 59 cases at a primary school the children attended - 10 cases via Karate class

Diego Bassani, PhD

@DGBassani

1 year

One child goes to school and then Taekwondo while pre-symptomatic. Within 3 weeks 75 households become infected, resulting in 201 infections. It’s wild that the role of children in this pandemic was ever questioned.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

In today's Victoria dataset, the case from the Mooney Valley Racecourse test site has changed from: "Acquired in Australia, unknown source" To "Contact with a confirmed case"

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

Victorian outbreak map 31st May #covid19vic

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

2 years

There are 5,439 people in hospital across Australia with covid - the highest of the pandemic.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

🗺VIC COVID-19 transmission diagram - 17th July 2021 - Separated Hume and Maribyrnong cluster diagrams - Added exposure site count for each date (0 since lockdown started) - Added lockdown period

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

🧵NSW Outbreak national impact As at 19th August 2021 #COVID19Aus The outbreak in NSW has caused local cases in every state and territory except NT, and caused lockdowns in all but QLD and TAS. It has also caused an outbreak in NZ. This thread outlines the scope of the impact🔽

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

💉Lots of good vaccination news! ✅VIC has reached 50% first doses, and more than 2 million fully vaccinated ✅Nationally, more than 6 million people are fully vaccinated

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

VIC Onwards transmission - 16th July 2021 Cases -> Subsequent transmissions (each) 20 -> 0 1 -> 1 1 -> 4 1 -> 5 1 -> 9 Only 17% of cases have transmitted to others 38% of cases come from a single source

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

Australia is reporting more than 1 case every second

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

🗺VIC COVID-19 Map - 19th July 2021 #COVID19vic

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

🗺VIC COVID-19 Map - 17th July 2021 #COVID19vic

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

Self-reporting of positive Rapid Antigen tests: VIC: QLD: SA: TAS: ACT: "Next week" NSW: "Mid next week" WA: PCR continuing NT: PCR continuing

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

Melbourne weather celebrates end of lockdown the only way it knows how 🌦

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

10 months

3 years ago today - Victoria has the first "Donut day", or day of 0 reported new COVID-19 cases since the start of the 2nd wave.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

🗺Australian Covid outbreaks since May 2021 - 9 outbreaks (1 USA, 1 alpha, 1 kappa, 6 delta)

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

We can now see several things: - As the new clusters emerge, isolating cases drop significantly initially - The original cluster is largely reducing - Only 1 significant cluster appears to be rapidly growing - the Wyndham cluster, which Jeroen raised today as the main concern.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

2 years

In VIC, there has been a significant and steady increase in hospitalised cases over the last few days, and a sudden single-day jump in cases too.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

VIC onwards transmission - 17th July 2021 Cases - Subsequent transmissions (each) 32 ► 0 5 ► +1 1 ► +2 2 ► +4 1 ► +6 1 ► +7 1 ► +10 Only 26% of cases have transmitted to others 53% of cases come from 3 individuals

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

💉VIC - 1,000,000 doses in 5 weeks As at 14th September 2021 #COVID19Vic ⚪Day: 32 / 35 🟢Current: 1,017,593 doses (✅102%) 🔵Estimated total: 🔺1,130,429 doses (✅113%) Estimate is based on 7 day average doses

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

1 year

Sad to hear of the passing of Mary-Louise McLaws. My condolences to her family & friends. This country and the wider international community benefited greatly from her work during the pandemic.

James Massola

@jamesmassola

1 year

Very sad news. Epidemiologist Mary-Louise McLaws dies aged 70

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

🗺Australian COVID-19 outbreaks 1st May - 1st August 2021 #COVID19Aus

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

2 years

The daily data has been removed from the Victorian coronavirus site, it is assumed there will be no further daily updates. With the weekly data only reporting averages for hospitalisations and ICU, we will no longer have accurate data on these values.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

There is obviously a lot of attention being paid to how recent cases in NSW will translate to serious illness. In Victoria's most recent outbreak, it took 10 days for a case to be admitted to the ICU, 15 days before a case was on a ventilator, and 28 days before the first death

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

No regional LGA in Victoria is below 94% 1st dose. Only 3 are below 95%: • Ararat (94.60%) • Murrindindi (94.40%) • Latrobe (94.00%)

Dr Behrooz Hassani-M

@behrooz_hm

3 years

Regional Victoria converges into a line at 95%. #Covid19VicData #CovidVic #COVID19nsw #COVID19Aus

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

No need for a PCR, but no way to report a positive RAT (assuming you can find one in the first place).

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

2 years

Collecting the weekly covid data for Australia is easy. This handy guide walks you through it. 🧵1 / 256

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

📊VIC - Case Regional / Metro split 26th August 2021 #COVID19Vic

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

💉All states and territories in Australia are now >70% 1st dose vaccinated.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

Victorian outbreak map 30th May #covid19vic

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

A shout out to the individual in the 12-15 age group who got their first dose yesterday in Victoria.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

📊VIC - Linked and Isolating cases 31st August 2021 #COVID19Vic

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

9 LGAs in Victoria increased their fully vaccinated coverage by more than 10% in the last week: • Hume🔺11.40% • Swan Hill🔺11.00% • Wyndham🔺10.90% • Melton🔺10.70% • Casey🔺10.60% • Greater Dandenong🔺10.50% • Mitchell🔺10.20% • Whittlesea🔺10.20% • Mildura🔺10.20%

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

Today marks 14 days since the last Alpha case in the QLD outbreak (Portuguese restaurant). All local cases in Australia are now Delta. The first local Delta case in Australia was 6th May.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

1 year

International studies on lockdowns have little relevance to Australia, where these measures were used to eliminate rather than suppress. These claims also don't address consequences of letting it rip, and a quick comparison of AUS vs UK or USA in 2020/2021 is pretty clear.

news.com.au

@newscomauHQ

1 year

Lockdowns likely caused “more harm than benefit” with “wide-ranging damage” that will be felt for years to come, a grim new study has found.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

- Other clusters have remained relatively steady, but combined they give the appearance of significant growth. Note: Unlinked cases will tend to be higher on the most recent days, as they've had the least chance to be linked. This doesn't automatically imply they are growing

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

2 years

By this time today, over a quarter of all Australians have, or have had, COVID-19 over the course of this pandemic. Sadly, 7,613 Australians have died as a result.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

2 years

I can't say Hallucinating Spinach was on my 2022 Bingo card

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

In NSW, it took 26 days to go from below 500 cases/day, to the peak of 1599, in Aug-Sep 2021. It has now taken just 5 days to go from 485 cases/day to 1742 in December.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

In the VIC case dataset today, 2 previously under investigation cases are now linked. These are both the remaining UI cases in Glenroy. I can't see another case in this cluster that remains under investigation.

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

✅10 million 1st vaccination doses nationally 💉

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

Vaccination status of local cases in NSW up to 3rd July - 3% of cases (9) were fully vaccinated - 4% of cases (11) were partially vaccinated - 87% of cases (251) were unvaccinated

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

🗺VIC COVID-19 Map - 21st July 2021 #COVID19vic - 22 new local cases - 16 were isolating - all major exposure sites > 50% testing of PCC

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

3 years

More than 5 million Australians are now fully vaccinated 💉

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dbRaevn

@dbRaevn

8 months

2023 has been an interesting year for me personally, mostly for the positive. Thanks to all who have assisted, supported or appreciated my work. I wish everyone well going into 2024 and hope you have a safe and happy New Year.

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