Senior Fellow, UCLA Burkle Center for International Relations; former Senior Political Scientist and Director, RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy.
There are many specific claims in this piece that if confirmed would be alarming. Important to scrutinize carefully because the implications would likely be a direct Israel-Iran war if not region-wide war, possibly sweeping in US.
Biden’s decision to visit Riyadh later this month, if reports are correct, is a trip that should never have been planned. My new piece in
@ForeignAffairs
explains why. Key points in this 🧵 /1
Protesters in China now calling for democracy. "We don't want a dictatorship. We want democracy. We don't want a leader. We want voting. We stand with the people of Xinjiang. We stand with the women of Iran.”
Some personal news. After 8 years as director of RAND's Center for Middle East Public Policy I'll be stepping down to focus on research and later this fall a fellowship at
@TheWilsonCenter
. CMEPP will be in great hands with the excellent
@RobinsonL100
. 1/2
@lrozen
@Susan_Hennessey
This is serious but if reports are accurate he won’t step down easily. He just met with Saudi crown prince this week on his ME ‘peace tour.’
We're moving to the worst of all worlds outcome: escalation that risks conflict, Iran scaling back on JCPOA commitments, and the US going at all this alone with no clear strategic objective. All predictable fallout from unilateral withdrawal decision.
Trump officials are having a hard time persuading allies there is a new threat with Iran. British general contradicted US on Iran today. And Iraqi officials are skeptical, though State Dept. is about to evacuate some diplomats from Iraq. w/
@helenecooper
UAE normalization with Assad was well underway since ABZ (Emirati FM) visit to Damascus in Nov. 2021. But for the UAE to host this close Putin ally in the midst of the Ukraine war where Russia is repeating its brutal Syria playbook is quite a message.
One year after US left an int’l arms control agreement that Iran was complying with, we’re back to talking about possibility of war and Iran going back to worrying nuclear activities. By what metric can we call this success?
Nearly a year ago the Trump administration authorized the killing of IRGC head Soleimani to ‘restore deterrence.’ And yet here we are again. We need smarter policies to get out of this dangerous escalatory cycle with Iran.
Journalists who cover Elon Musk have been suspended on Twitter tonight:
@Donie
O'Sullivan from CNN, Aaron Rupar and the Washington Post's
@drewharwell
.
Rupar tells me he has "no idea" why it happened.
Not exactly the 'day after' plans the US and Arab partners have in mind. Another reminder that in the midst of this horrific war we are dealing with the most extreme government in Israel's history.
12 Israeli ministers (including from Netanyahu's Likud party) participated at a conference today about rebuilding Isrseli settlements in Gaza & encouraging displacement of Palestinians from Gaza. Ministers Ben Gvir, Smotrich and several others from Likud gave supportive speeches
@AaronMagid
@StateDept
Wow, this is not trivial. There does not appear to be anywhere on the site to find information about US relations with Palestinians. This type of denial is wrong and short-sighted.
Most analysts did not think the US- Iran escalation was over. But can we risk renewed conflict in the midst of a pandemic? The dangers were already alarming before this health crisis. De-escalation needed more than ever.
2 Americans and 1 Brit were killed when 15 Katyusha rockets landed at Taji Base in Iraq at about 7:52 pm local time today. "ISIS doesn't have this capability," I am told by a US military source. The US military is still treating the wounded right now, which number more than 11.
Today, I met with senior leaders to discuss extremism in the military. As a first step, I'm ordering a stand down to occur over the next 60 days so each service, each command and each unit can have a deeper conversation about this issue. It comes down to leadership. Everyone’s.
A thread here with some thoughts on the explosions in
#Iran
in the past week or so, keeping in mind that reporting from within Iran is not terribly reliable. I elaborate in this podcast. 1/15
We so need this. It costs $25 for just 2 rapid tests at your local CVS, assuming you can find them. Anything in the works to provide free home testing in US?
@DrLeanaWen
“The notion that an Israeli-Saudi deal could substantially change the Middle East reveals that the Biden administration is working off an outdated playbook in which grand, splashy accords and televised handshakes shift the region for good.”
@Mikeknightsiraq
@ilangoldenberg
It's possible to be outraged that a US president would tweet a threat that constitutes a war crime and still recognize the threat is not likely real.
Intelligence sources tell me: Israel is behind the activity in Natanz. This is an Israeli cyber operation in which the Mossad was involved. The damage to the Natanz facility is greater than reported in Iran
Hopefully this visit can help save lives. But what could Bennett give that would turn Putin around? And what is he asking for? Timing with JCPOA endgame is interesting.
UPDATE: Putin and Bennett's meeting is still ongoing, more than two and a half hours in. The Israeli PM violated Shabbat to fly to Moscow, accompanied by Ukrainian-born minister, PM's Office says
CRITICAL: Food needs to move in and out of
#Ukraine
. Ports MUST reopen. Millions if not billions of lives are at stake and we are running out of time — the world demands it.
Does the
#IsraelUAE
deal, even if it leads to robust bilateral ties, change any fundamental regional alignment, global power engagement or political dynamics not already in place? My answer is no, this is not a strategic game changer:
💯.
@BarakRavid
clearly explains why what's happening in Israel directly impacts the region and US interests. The dramatic events in Israel are not just a domestic issue.
"This is part of the grand scheme of things, it's not just about Israel"
@BarakRavid
talks to
@yasminv
about the geopolitical implications of the Knesset passing controversial new judicial laws in Israel.
Iranian missile launches, reports of planes taking off, presidential address to the nation-in literally hours we have moved from what was a crisis to what seems like war. The clear inability of either the US or Iran to read the other accurately augers badly for crisis management.
@thomasjuneau
The fact we’re even talking about war now is crazy given we had Iran contained in a nuclear agreement the world supported, and with better leverage to work on other issues of concern through diplomacy.
Russia may invade Ukraine. China may invade Taiwan. The Iran nuclear deal is collapsing. The trend lines for global stability are not looking good. We need some new ideas to turn things around.
The Biden administration is signaling that the
#MiddleEast
won't be a high priority. This is a good time to adjust how we do business in this region. Our new
@RANDCorporation
study on reimagining US strategy takes this on.
Thread.
@RobinsonL100
1/9
JUST TO BE CLEAR: this is the Senior Advisor to US President Donald Trump, Ivanka Trump
@IvankaTrump
being interviewed at
@dohaforum
by US
@statedeptspox
Morgan Ortagus. No other government official attending this forum is being interviewed by a spokesman for that government.
The
#OPEC
decision is unsurprising. My analysis of the summer
#Saudi
trip in
@ForeignAffairs
included this point, which unfortunately is playing out as expected.
It’s not just the obvious compromise on principles and the message that autocrats can get away with murder. It’s that it’s unlikely Biden will get anything meaningful and lasting in return, making this a particularly bad deal. /2
Three weeks after Trump again ordered a withdrawal of all US forces from NE Syria, the US now plans to have basically the same number of troops it had in that area before the chaotic US withdrawal unfolded:
via
@EricSchmittNYT
@helenecooper
Biden extends official invitation for Jordan's King Abdullah to visit White House on July 19. Abdullah will be 1st Mideast leader to visit Biden White House
"It will be an opp to discuss many challenges facing Mideast & showcase Jordan leadership in promoting peace & stability"
Bahrain is likely up next for normalizing with Israel--being willing to host a 'peace' summit without Palestinians over a year ago is a pretty good clue.
Sullivan is right that an Israel-Saudi deal would be a big deal if it really did all the big things it promises (including breakthroughs in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict). But that's not what's in the cards
@ForeignAffairs
"If the US fails to respond to attacks by Iranian-sponsored groups, Iranian terrorism will continue and very likely grow." --Willam J. Casey (1985 declassified CIA memo). We've been at this a long time...
Key point from
@Cinzia_Bianco
--Israel-Saudi deal was already facing challenges before this crisis. Yes, direct MBS-Raisi phone call is big deal but follows months of Saudi-Iran thawing, including FM visits.
#SaudiArabia
’s CP
#MbS
&
#Iran
President
#Raisi
have their first-ever phone call agreeing to stand by
#Palestine
and stop the attack on
#Gaza
.
Fully as expected: the Saudi deal to normalize with
#Israel
, already difficult to happen in 2024, is delayed until further notice.
"It's important for us to be able to sit with the president and to hear our demands, our concerns, and also for him to understand what Shireen meant not just for our family, but for millions of people who were watching her and were inspired by her."
@LinaAbuAkleh
on
@POTUS
visit
I'm seeing photos from Warsaw summit excited about Israelis sitting with Arabs. Take a look at photos from Madrid nearly 30 years ago and you'll see the same (with more heads of state). This is not progress:
On GPS, @ 10am & 1pm ET on
@CNN
: I’ll talk US–China tensions w/ Chinese Amb to the US
@AmbCuiTiankai
in an exclusive interview, the view on them from this side of the Pacific w/
@ABlinken
, Iran’s mysterious explosions w/
@dassakaye
& the social scars Covid-19 will leave w/
@BHL
@farnazfassihi
@EricSchmittNYT
Who briefed the senior US official? Or was this a point the US official made? In other words is the USG confirming Israeli training facilities in Erbil or is someone else asserting this?
Good reminder that not all Israelis opposed the JCPOA. Even some who opposed did not think withdrawing was a good idea. Those voices were muted during Trump era but transition in Washington could change that.
Former Israeli PM Ehud Olmert said he hopes that President-elect Joe Biden will have the “courage” to return to the nuclear deal with Iran and renegotiate “an even better agreement.”
Here we go again. And like before when Netanyahu lobbied against JCPOA, he offered no viable alternative. Leaving the deal, sabotage and max pressure has only accelerated Iran's program.
Unfortunately holding the JCPOA hostage to these regional issues is unrealistic and will likely lead to the worst of all worlds--an advancing Iranian nuclear program and more destabilizing regional actions as
@JBWolfsthal
and I argue
BIG: 140 US Congress Members Letter on
#Iran
to Blinken to include Ballistic Missile + Terror funding in any talks.
Largest bipartisan consensus on Iran (70 D-70 R) since Biden took office:
"Among the mistakes the Biden administration has made with regard to this conflict, if anything they have been too supportive of the Netanyahu administration..."
@djrothkopf
latest worth a read.
The Iraq war, the Arab spring and maybe the JCPOA rise to the level of 'geopolitical earthquake'-- but
#IsraelUAE
? What regional strategic trends does it fundamentally change?
This is pretty major. Being reported in multiple news outlets, not just WP. Boxes in administration options even more, esp when you add in bipartisan congressional concern over Saudi.
And saying Netanyahu believes Iran is currently pursuing a covert program without noting this contradicts US and IAEA assessments fails to provide critical context.
Appreciate you
@SangerNYT
, but WHOA. It’s not a verifiable fact that Iran has been pursuing “a nuclear weapon for the past two decades.” It is both DEBATED and DISPUTED. Therefore, you must ATTRIBUTE here.
Otherwise, you are misleading the public, w/all due respect
@nytimes
Do we even know if they are law enforcement? This is a no-go in America. Who are these guys? report to? their authority to enforce anything is? what happens if they injure or kill someone? If I'm a citizen, am I required to do anything these people say?
A Lebanese-Israeli peace accord would constitute a genuine and dramatic regional strategic shift. But a maritime borders agreement, long discussed and certainly positive news if finalized, is not a peace agreement.
Economic despair, the Beirut blast and a general ambiance of normalization could push Lebanon to the unthinkable: peace with Israel | Miran Khwais | Opinion
Dear American friends. Our Prime Minister has a tendency to lie in his interviews for International media, so I came to help with some facts. Please pass on to your friends - and come help us, Israelis who are fighting for democracy, save our country.
I haven't read the op-ed that's being discussed all over this platform but all of the sudden my daughter says I deserve to be called a Dr., so that's something.
#DrJillBiden
JUST IN: The House committee investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol riot has subpoenaed former President Donald Trump for testimony under oath and records.
The subpoena requires Trump to appear for testimony on or about Nov. 14.
كلمة جلالة الملك عبدالله الثاني في #قمة_القاهرة_للسلام التي تستضيفها جمهورية مصر العربية في إطار الجهود المبذولة لوقف الحرب على غزة #الأردن
His Majesty King Abdullah II’s Speech at the
#CairoSummitForPeace
, held within the framework of efforts to stop the war on Gaza
#Jordan
"Beyond rhetorical support, there are a number of concrete steps the United States could take if concern for the Iranian people is a genuine priority, as it should be."
During the Cold War, US leaders believed that we needed all kinds of autocrats -- Mobutu, Pinochet, apartheid South Africa, generals, monarchies in the Middle East, Suharto etc -- to contain the USSR. We did not. In trying to containing China, let's not repeat this mistake again.
France circulated to UN security council members the draft resolution on Gaza ceasefire. The U.S. is still blocking it and refuses to engage on the text. Read it all here👇👇👇
@Joyce_Karam
@lrozen
This is a good way to handle false and polarizing tweets. Summarize the lies but avoid retweeting them to give them more legitimacy than they deserve.
We've got a new report coming out on Reimagining US Strategy in the Middle East on Feb. 23. Please join our
@RANDCorporation
panel discussion with commentary from Gen. Votel and
@wrightr
moderating.
Looking at Biden's record in the Middle East (spoiler: human rights is not at the center) and current US-Iran/Israel-Iran dynamics, I argue that the US isn't leaving the region and is missing an opportunity to do things differently.
My
@RANDCorporation
colleagues and I published a study on the regional consequences of the
#IraqWar
over 8 years ago and sadly our findings are still relevant:
The JCPOA did what covert action couldn’t—bought 10 years of restrictions on Iran’s centrifuge development and 15 years on its enrichment levels/stockpiles. With US withdrawal from JCPOA in May 2018, we’ve now lost that time and are going backwards. 11/15
Removing Trump from office a week early would emphasize to his supporters that he is losing,
@juliettekayyem
writes: "Recruitment is easier for a winning team."
In my latest for
@WPReview
I argue that the US-Saudi spat is more than about oil--there's a deeper divide between the US and its Middle East partners about how they see the Ukraine war and its global stakes:
Yes let's be realistic. This is about self-interest and currying favor in Washington. Certainly normal ties b/t Arab world and Israel are good but these deals are not about to usher in an era of peace or increase "tolerance" and "moderation" in the region.
The notion that President Trump doesn’t want war with Iran rings hollow if this was a deliberate attack. Killing this target will likely be viewed as an act of war regardless.
BREAKING: Iran confirms Gen.Qasem Sulaimani was killed in Iraq tonight.
Source: IRGC, Tasnim.
"Gen. Sulamini joined his martyred friends," wrote IRGC military expert Hossein Dalirian.
#Iraq
The assault on Saudi dissidents, online and physically, is ongoing. Recommend
@TheDissidentMov
to understand what’s happening now beyond the tragic Khashoggi killing.
The disappearance in Canada of a Saudi dissident and his re-appearance in Saudi Arabia several weeks later have raised fears among his friends that he was lured back by the government. By
@SarahDadouch
@lrozen
Iran is different than Venezuela. It’s a core issue for this adm and don’t forget Trump pulled out from deal against the advice of his advisors at the time, and pre-Bolton. The president owns its Iran policy.