cma @cma_1973 Twitter profile

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cma

@cma_1973

5 years

@TheStalwart

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cma

@cma_1973

3 years

South African medical association says Omicron variant causes 'mild disease'

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

US struggles to mobilise its Asian ‘Chip 4’ alliance

US struggles to mobilise its East Asian ‘Chip 4’ alliance

Internal tensions and concerns over China undermine proposed grouping with South Korea, Japan and Taiwan

www.ft.com

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cma

@cma_1973

3 years

Thanks to China hawks like Pottinger, Rubio, FDD, etc. that instigate all forms of decoupling, tomorrow’s reality is this: only the very wealthy of the West will have access to China. Beijing prefers elite to elite contact with the rest of the world, and that’s what they’ll get.

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cma

@cma_1973

4 years

No censure, no expulsion means no accountability. Without accountability, seditious elements will fester and we will trade our remaining civil liberties in order to prepare for future acts of insurrection we were incapable of suppressing through democratic institutions

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

“In fact, if China is exceptional, it is only as exceptional as the real American experience — not the partial myths and reified narratives presented in mainstream political economy.”

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

Efforts to rationalize these facts are, in part, a side effect of sloppy coverage of the sanctions (e.g. “de-SWIFTed!” v “selective de-SWIFTing”). Where I disagree with Robin is that these are lessons learned; all of this was understood prior to the invasion, hence the carve outs

Robin Brooks

@robin_j_brooks

2 years

Lessons learned from Russia sanctions: (i) Russia's current account surplus makes it less vulnerable to financial sanctions; (ii) key is to sanction ALL Russian banks, not just some; (iii) to really hurt Russia, you must hit its c/a surplus, which only an energy embargo does...

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

The flaw in this sort of analysis, and it’s very common, is that it selectively links US China policy with broader US strategy only when it is convenient… Simply put: if you treat China like an adversary, you forfeit the right to act surprised when it behaves like an adversary.

Martin Chorzempa 马永哲

@ChorzempaMartin

2 years

I’m afraid. The escalation ladder begins here. US sanctions on these companies are surely inevitable, which will mean hard choices for Chinese banks—serving these important strategic state firms risks being sanctioned themselves, cutting off from usd and causing global fin chaos

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cma

@cma_1973

4 years

Safe to say the market hasn’t priced in the fact that this marks the beginning of an industry wide disruption on par with the iPhone

MacRumors.com

@MacRumors

4 years

Apple Silicon M1 Emulating x86 is Still Faster Than Every Other Mac in Single Core Benchmark by @frankmcshan

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cma

@cma_1973

5 years

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cma

@cma_1973

3 years

Singapore will hedge until it becomes unfeasible to do so. Like Israel, Turkey, Europe, the Philippines, etc. already. As for leading indicators, unfortunately there are none. Interests of the great powers will change and alter one another. Think rotating alignments everywhere

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

Isaac Chotiner interviews Shelley Rigger… The Provocative Politics of Nancy Pelosi’s Trip to Taiwan

The Provocative Politics of Nancy Pelosi’s Trip to Taiwan

What is the House Speaker’s high-profile visit really about?

www.newyorker.com

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

Ignore the countless ‘Why this is a big deal’ rehashes from commentators outside of the industry. Instead, this… Chips and China

Chips and China

Understanding the path the semiconductor industry took to today both shows where China needs to go and also explains why the risks for geopolitical conflict are higher than ever.

stratechery.com

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

“We also can’t expect Taiwan to self-regulate trade with China, because so many of the raw materials they use to make chips come from China […] So the notion that you could get Taiwan and South Korea especially to move in lockstep with us on this is absurd.”

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cma

@cma_1973

3 years

Since both the US and China are currently engaged in a process of onshoring what they can of TSMC, eventually that shield will be stripped away.

David Brunnstrom

@davidbrunnstrom

3 years

'(M)any analysts believe China won’t try to reclaim Taiwan in the near future because the move could disrupt its own supply of chips. Taiwanese leaders refer to the local chip industry as Taiwan’s “silicon shield,” helping protect it from such conflict.' #Taiwan @TWSemicon

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cma

@cma_1973

1 year

@tphuang Would have thought this was already clear: Micron openly politicized its business and is now reaping what it sowed. Moreover, this activity exposes the corporatism posing as US industrial policy.

cma

@cma_1973

2 years

“Micron is on record as having lobbied the US government 170 times – with two thirds of the cases involving trade and intellectual property rights issues related to China.”

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

Self-sanctioning is a euphemism for risk management. In Iran, even after sanctions were (briefly) lifted, foreign companies were reluctant to initiate new business out of fear that sanctions could return. The situation was too fluid/uncertain and they stayed away. Same story here

Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

The long-term effect on Russia's economy from "self-sanctioning" by foreign companies will be dramatic. w @BHilgenstockIIF

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

I’ll save you a click and lead with the spoiler: “Too many people have lost sight of the fact that our economies are mutually beneficial”

China’s Economy Won’t Overtake the U.S., Some Now Predict

Slowing growth has damped expectations that the Chinese economy will become the world’s largest by the end of the decade.

www.wsj.com

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

@leonyuchen If the graphic below does not represent a multipolar configuration of the world to you, then, unfortunately, we are at an impasse

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cma

@cma_1973

4 years

“A survey by UBS found that almost 40 per cent of respondents in China increased online shopping in early April, higher than during the worst days of the crisis, and three-quarters of them said they planned to keep up the habit in the future.”

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cma

@cma_1973

1 year

Exclusive: US to ease visas for skilled Indian workers as Modi visits

The Biden administration will make it easier for Indians to live and work in the United States, using this week's state visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to help some skilled workers enter or...

www.reuters.com

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cma

@cma_1973

3 years

ICYMI: this is a much bigger deal than the Abraham Accords (which was little more than a formalization of old facts on the ground). The potential extra regional impact of this new relationship is massive, extending far beyond energy…

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cma

@cma_1973

4 years

The only notable development to emerge from the TikTok affair is that the role of DJT’s donors in the crafting of US foreign policy is finally being acknowledged.

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

Of course one of the obvious problems with this kneecapping strategy (aside from its clear lack of confidence in America’s ability to compete) is that it does not leave room for a Plan B. Should China successfully evade the controls/leap frog current tech…then what?

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cma

@cma_1973

4 years

Afternoon delight

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cma

@cma_1973

6 months

China’s semiconductor output jumps 40% in first quarter amid growing dominance in legacy chips

China’s chip output surges amid growing dominance in legacy chips

US exports control could unintentionally lead to a Chinese dominance of global legacy-chip production, researchers say.

www.scmp.com

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

@stevenleemyers “We did it to ourselves”

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cma

@cma_1973

4 years

The zeitgeist:

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cma

@cma_1973

3 years

@RajaKorman Was North Atlantic Transaction Operations taken?

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

Very much the opposite. The current USG approach to China, as many predicted at its outset, stokes Chinese nationalism. It’s been a five year gift to the CCP.

Julian Ku 古舉倫

@julianku

2 years

Does the USG have a PR strategy that can push back against this belief? "It also found that 58 per cent agreed or strongly agreed that the country should stand up to foreign bullying, with 54 per cent saying the US “regularly bullies” China and tries to prevent its rise."

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

CIA confirms possibility of Chinese lethal aid to Russia

CIA Director Bill Burns said that U.S. intelligence is confident that Chinese leadership is considering providing lethal aid to Russia in its war against Ukraine.

www.cbsnews.com

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cma

@cma_1973

8 months

Trust me…he meant to say ‘other memes.’

Karthik Sankaran

@RajaKorman

8 months

As Clausewitz once said, Twitter is the continuation of politics by other means.

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cma

@cma_1973

5 years

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

Wrong. Prior to US export controls, Chinese companies could safely ignore BJ’s techno-nationalist exhortations and function. Post US controls, with key inputs removed/entire business models threatened, that’s no longer the case. Lack of parts > lack of nationalistic heart…

Greg Ip

@greg_ip

2 years

With or without sanctions, China will try to become self sufficient in semiconductors. After all, it has been upfront about its pursuit of self sufficiency/dominance in all key technologies. The West can influence the speed at which China gets there, not its commitment.

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cma

@cma_1973

5 years

“Blackstone Chief Executive Officer Stephen Schwarzman sounded more positive than some of his peers on China’s potential. He predicted Monday that China would allow foreigners to own 100 percent of financial companies within the country. ‘That’ll happen pretty quickly’ he said.”

Bloomberg

@business

5 years

China’s plan to open its financial sector to the world drew positive reception from top executives attending the Milken conference this week

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

Worth noting that the FT is owned by Japanese holding company, Nikkei.

Japanese tech leaders warn Beijing will ride out US chip sanctions

Sony and NEC executives say progress may be slowed but China will remain a force in AI and other areas

www.ft.com

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cma

@cma_1973

3 years

It’s essential. You cannot expect to successfully manage relationships with others while in the midst of an identity crisis, which is what that “domestic schism” represents. And obviously this applies to non-China issues as well, think of the fragility of JCPOA

Andy Zelleke

@andy_zelleke

3 years

Question for all the NS/FP strategists/thinkers, esp those working GPC w/ #China : is it *essential* to US success in that competition-as foundational matter-that US resolve domestic schism that Trumpism spotlights? Or is that just an obstacle that good NS/FP policy can navigate?

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cma

@cma_1973

4 years

“[Qualcomm] lists Chinese competition as a risk in its annual filings. Last year Chinese sales made up $11.6bn out of Qualcomm’s $24.3bn in revenue. A HiSilicon liberated from Huawei would threaten those sales.”

How America’s war on Huawei may boost Chinese technology

From September 15th the Chinese telecoms giant will no longer be able to buy vital semiconductors

www.economist.com

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cma

@cma_1973

5 years

“During numerous off the record discussions with Chinese government officials and scholars, we are finding that an increasing number are hoping for Trump’s reelection next year.”

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cma

@cma_1973

3 years

“The president urged the leaders of wealthy democracies to offer hundreds of billions in loans to developing nations in a direct challenge to Beijing’s Belt-and-Road Initiative.”

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

“In gambling, the many must lose in order that the few may win.” -George Bernard Shaw “Despite the unfavorable economic consequences, we should expect geopolitics-driven disengagement to continue.” -George Magnus

The High Costs of Disengagement for China - The Wire China

Disengagement is the order of the day, and as George Magnus argues, the economy that loses the most may well be China’s.

www.thewirechina.com

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

@przidnt1 The man who swam to China floats to the top of global banking

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cma

@cma_1973

4 years

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

Worth noting that even as the US pushes Taiwan toward the center of the US-China competition (contrary to the warnings of US Taiwan experts), Taiwan itself remains uninterested in decoupling from China.

Taiwan vows to safeguard interests amid U.S.-led 'Chip 4' talks

Senior Taiwanese official says full decoupling from China is difficult

asia.nikkei.com

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cma

@cma_1973

1 year

Why This Foreign Policy Expert Thinks Americans Dangerously Misunderstand China

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cma

@cma_1973

3 years

His recording with the Addicts Rehabilitation Center (ARC) Choir singing "Walk With Me" appears in Kanye West's 2004 hit "Jesus Walks." Sprey said he earned enough royalties from the West song "to support 30 of my money-losing jazz albums."

Pierre Sprey - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

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cma

@cma_1973

6 years

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cma

@cma_1973

3 years

Turkey's geography lures Japanese electronics contractor Kaga

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cma

@cma_1973

1 year

‘We have survived!’: China’s Huawei goes local in response to US sanctions

‘We have survived’: China’s Huawei goes local in response to US sanctions

Tech group is trying to lead way for Chinese companies eager to reduce reliance on western technology

www.ft.com

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

The great re-shoring charade

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

Good vibes

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

China calls for inquiry into Nord Stream gas pipeline leaks

Damage to infrastructure appears deliberate and will affect consumers around the world, envoy to United Nations says.

www.scmp.com

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

This is a common error. The US-Israel relationship is not an alliance because it lacks reciprocity: Israel is a US client state that the US has committed to protect, while Israel has made no such commitment to the US.

Patrick Chovanec

@prchovanec

2 years

We have to remember that Netanyahu is not our ally, Israel is. And Israel is in turmoil over its future direction. The Israelis who have resigned in protest from his government are as worth of our consideration as he is.

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

Truly irresponsible reporting

FT Economics

@fteconomics

2 years

FirstFT: China could invade Taiwan next year, US Navy chief warns

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cma

@cma_1973

3 years

Imagine how different this plea might sound if Team Biden had spent the last year decoupling from DJT’s China policy. Would it even be necessary?

Reuters

@Reuters

3 years

The United States called on China to use its influence with Russia to urge a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis

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cma

@cma_1973

3 years

Blackstone drops $3bn takeover of property developer Soho China

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cma

@cma_1973

1 year

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cma

@cma_1973

3 years

Great question. Boring answer: Western political access and leverage

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

US-China decoupling: Beijing has options beyond Russia in navigating geopolitics of technology

Opinion | China has options beyond Russia in navigating geopolitics of technology

China’s most important technological partners are not in Russia but in US-allied countries such as Germany and Japan. Until the US brings down the hammer on its friends and partners, the door will...

www.scmp.com

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cma

@cma_1973

3 years

Japan defense spending isn't bound by 1% GDP cap, Suga says

Prime minister says Okinawa will be protected in Taiwan crisis

asia.nikkei.com

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

80% of German medium-sized businesses have remained in Russia despite sanctions

While major German multinationals like SAP had to yield to public opinion pressure and left the Russian market, medium-sized companies not in the limelight quietly continue their business trying...

rmx.news

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

China's reopening is a bigger driver for oil prices than cap on Russian crude, Singapore foreign minister says

China's reopening is a bigger driver for oil prices than cap on Russian crude, Singapore foreign...

China is the world's largest oil importer and news of its reopening plans has swayed oil prices.

www.cnbc.com

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

Seems like the unilateralism of the most recent US export controls was lost in the sea of breathless reactions to the policy. This remains a key feature to the ongoing trade war and worth keeping an eye on…

cma

@cma_1973

2 years

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cma

@cma_1973

1 year

Think this has less to do with Tooze per se (other ‘outsiders’ seem to be on the same path) than, and maybe this was your point, the ongoing politicization of US analysis of Asia. Similar to 20 yrs ago, the problem now isn’t a lack of dissent but that dissent is being drowned out

Van Jackson

@RealVanJackson

1 year

It’s fascinating to me that Tooze is new to observing Asian security yet has a better grasp of it from the jump than many people who’ve made it their lives

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

“Russia will supply crop nutrients via a barter system avoiding dollar transactions due to US sanctions, as Russian importers will exchange fertilisers for various Indian commodities, including tea, raw materials and auto parts.”

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cma

@cma_1973

3 years

US-China tech war: Taiwan chip giant TSMC seeks geopolitical analyst amid US-China tensions

Taiwan chip giant TSMC posts job ad for geopolitical analyst

The company, widely regarded as the world’s most important semiconductor foundry, has been caught up in rising US-China tensions.

www.scmp.com

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cma

@cma_1973

4 years

“The more democratic a country became, the closer it came to China.”

Tracy Alloway

@tracyalloway

4 years

New Odd Lots! On this episode, @TheStalwart and I talk about the situation with African debt. @gyude_moore , former minister of public works and deputy chief of staff in Liberia, gives us his perspective on why Africa borrowed billions from China.

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cma

@cma_1973

5 years

Nothing except for the fact that the Dems are on the verge of nominating the weakest of all possible candidates whose sole hope of victory relies on a disastrous response to the virus by DJT

Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

5 years

Nothing is stopping Dem legislators and Dem presidential candidates (Biden & Sanders from being the first to propose fiscal stimulus. There’s an advantage to setting the initial bid. Especially given Kudlow’s denialism and antipathy towards genuine fiscal stimulus.

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

…unless the goal was to manufacture a ‘crisis.’

Telegraph Strategies Consulting

@TelStratLLC

2 years

@pstAsiatech Exactly. Having handled more than my fair share of crises in Asia and the Middle East, plus events we prevented from becoming crises, this was a case study in what NOT to do.

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

China has three roads to Taiwan: The US must block them all

China wins — and Taiwan and the West lose — if Beijing arrives in Taipei by any one of these roads.

thehill.com

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cma

@cma_1973

4 years

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cma

@cma_1973

3 years

The pandemic began AFTER 3 yrs of DJT’s trade war & its attendant anti-China rhetoric. Rather than fostering excess trust (“they’re ripping us off!”), DJT’s relentless hostility established the context necessary for US doubt, early inaction & subsequent conspiratorial propaganda

The Hill

@thehill

3 years

Condoleezza Rice: "Maybe there was a little bit too much of trusting of the Chinese" at beginning of pandemic

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

“Memory chips, Samsung’s cash cow business, have gone into an oversupply, triggering price falls.”

Samsung Electronics Feels Sting of Memory-Chip Decline, as Net Profit Falls 24%

The South Korean company says it has no plans to ‘artificially reduce memory output for the sake of short-term supply rebalance.’

www.wsj.com

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cma

@cma_1973

3 years

“Alibaba ranks among the top three e-commerce platforms in Europe, according to Euromonitor International.”

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

Army Drops Requirement for High School Diploma Amid Recruiting Crisis

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cma

@cma_1973

3 years

U.S. priority should be American chipmakers, not TSMC: Intel chief

Washington needs to invest more in domestic companies, Gelsinger says

asia.nikkei.com

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cma

@cma_1973

3 years

And yet many vocal, US based China hawks are also fanatical supporters of Israel

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

“There’s a sense in Japan that US companies will manage to continue to do business with China while others suffer. One complaint was the controls will spur Beijing to advance its chip technology, leaving the US and China strengthened and everyone else at a disadvantage.”

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

French President Emmanuel Macron to visit China in April on mission to help end Ukraine war

Macron to visit China in April on mission to help end Ukraine war

Macron aims to enlist Beijing to pressure Moscow into a resolution of the conflict.

www.scmp.com

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

US Tariffs on Metals, Some China Goods Raised American Prices

US importers bore almost the entire burden of tariffs that President Donald Trump placed on more than $300 billion in Chinese goods, raising the cost of goods bought by American companies, a report...

www.bloomberg.com

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

Next US election may prove most dangerous time for Taiwan, warns veteran US diplomat Chas Freeman

Next US election may be danger time for Taiwan, warns veteran diplomat

Richard Nixon’s former interpreter says Beijing may view the election of a supporter of Taiwan’s independence as something it must respond to

www.scmp.com

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

China Plans New Middle East Summit as Diplomatic Role Takes Shape

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cma

@cma_1973

4 years

“A merchant can decline payment in Alipay or WeChat Pay, but cannot decline payment in e-yuan”

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

Interesting, maybe (I’m not qualified to say), but not surprising: Hollywood sales to China are down ~70% over the last ten years. The idea that Hollywood is beholden to China is outdated.

Bonnie Glaser / 葛來儀 🇺🇦

@BonnieGlaser

2 years

Interesting that Hollywood voices are calling attention to PRC threats to the global fish supply.

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

“Micron is on record as having lobbied the US government 170 times – with two thirds of the cases involving trade and intellectual property rights issues related to China.”

Micron probe by China seen as chip war retaliation - Asia Times

A Chinese cybersecurity watchdog has launched an investigation into the products of Micron Technology, an American memory chip maker – timing the

asiatimes.com

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cma

@cma_1973

5 years

Looking forward to limit up and a margarita to get the week rolling

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cma

@cma_1973

4 years

The aggregation and correlation of data from various sources + low American expectations wrt privacy and general quality of life

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cma

@cma_1973

3 years

And pattern recognition…

Rocinante

@ramonferrandis

3 years

Welp. Turns out Michael R. Gordon, one of the authors of the WSJ's piece on the Wuhan Lab Leak hypothesis, also co-wrote the infamous NYT "Aluminum Tubes" piece with Judith Miller. Why has no one in the MSM mentioned this?

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

@pstAsiatech But, Paul: “We don’t accept the principle of sphere of influence” -Secretary of State Antony Blinken, May 6, 2021

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cma

@cma_1973

3 years

Chas Freeman: The Fadeout of the Pax Americana in the Middle East

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cma

@cma_1973

2 years

A good job relative to…??? What does the alternative to publicizing the balloon(s) look like? How does this ‘raising of international awareness’ of ‘balloon operations’ advance US strategy? Did the RoW not know China spies? Does any of this increase or decrease US optionality?

Ryan Hass

@ryanl_hass

2 years

1/ A few quick reflections on diplomacy around the Chinese spy balloon incident: The US has done a good job raising intl awareness of the systemic nature of PRC balloon operations around the world and building support for the principle of protecting sovereign airspace. (thread)

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cma

@cma_1973

7 months

Behold China’s consumer paradise

Behold China's consumer paradise - Asia Times

'Cause we are living in a material world And I am a material girl You know that we are living in a material world And I am a material girl – Madonna China

asiatimes.com

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cma

@cma_1973

3 years

“Taiwan chip titan faces fight for workers as Intel also builds in Arizona”

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cma

@cma_1973

4 years

Tsinghua advisory board member Hank Paulson: “A more fundamental threat is the lack of political will to deal with America’s long-term structural deficit, which undermines confidence in the U.S. economy and the dollar.”

Opinion | China Wants to Be the World’s Banker

The U.S. is in danger of losing its dominant leadership position in global financial services.

www.wsj.com

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cma

@cma_1973

4 years

The great ‘decoupling’ continues apace

YUAN TALKS

@YuanTalks

4 years

#Fidelity International has applied to set up a wholly owned mutual fund units in China, showed a filing to the China Securities Regulatory Commission.

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cma

@cma_1973

3 years

@nktpnd Every generation gets the Tom Friedman they deserve, Ankit

0

4

cma

@cma_1973

4 years

No, that’s a certainty. The SoftBank/ARM saga is the kind of tech transfer chutzpah rarely seen outside of the Israel-China relationship: an industry game changer (just ask Apple) publicly given away as DJT’s China hawks/dupes engineer a payoff to a talent show website

Scott Kennedy

@KennedyCSIS

4 years

What’s going on w/ ARM in China may be more important than the hullabaloo over TikTok. Relevant for whether China can effectively nationalize a foreign-invested company and its pursuit of tech independence.

10

60

102

1

4

cma

@cma_1973

4 years

“The People’s Bank of China and a district of Shenzhen are to hand out 10 million digital yuan (worth around $1.5 million) as ‘red envelope’ gifts to citizens.”