I've been investigating vertical AI startups profoundly for the past few weeks. I think we're in a very strange part of the cycle in AI startup funding/development. Some thoughts (hot takes?)
1. Literally every vertical (finance, law, healthcare etc) is now populated with AI
This year’s summer internship season was brutal for everyone recruiting at the GSB.
Big tech, consulting and banking, which historically hired dozens of MBAs, are hitting the brakes bc of bad macro + AI advancements.
Most high-achieving classmates I know only had one internship
Caught up in Sao Paulo with an old high school friend. He worked at a quant fund that got dismantled and is now looking for new jobs. He’s literally one of the top three smartest people I know—graduated valedictorian in high school, ranked
#1
in the admission exam at Brazil’s
Was invited by
@arturtavr
to give a lecture on VC to students from Poli — on the very same class he taught me what VC was in the first place.
Full circle!
I've been using
@perplexity_ai
as my default "search" engine for the past few weeks, and now Google feels like a previous-gen product.
Impressive that a Series A company has been able to deliver a superior experience than a trillion-dollar one. Exciting times...
Shared the stage today with my good friend
@Nicobot01
interviewing the one and only
@velez_david
.
David's drive, intellect and humbleness are an inspiration to an entire continent. I'm sure all of us walked out of that room today feeling anything was possible. Thank you, David!
One of the best parts of working in VC is being surrounded by optimists, 100% of the time.
The belief that tomorrow will be better than today is contagious. It generates positive externalities in life that should not be taken for granted.
Always thrilling to hear about Nubank in 20VC.
David Vélez, now 41yo and still with decades to build, will probably go down in history as the greatest Latam entrepreneur of all time.
The truth is that you only need one big "yes" for many areas in life — college applications, job interviews, marriage.
People overvalue optionality, crafting Plans B, C, D instead of putting all their heart on Plan A. Going all-in strategically is where life happens.
Met in Sao Paulo with three incredibly talented founders (two 2nd-time ones). They each raised only one round, and are already thinking on breakeven.
Avoiding large rounds is silently becoming the norm among a group of high-caliber founders. Venture capital will need to evolve.
Largely agree. I think of running personal finances as running a company. Too many people in the beginning of their careers focus on minimizing expenses, while they should be focusing on increasing revenue.
Moving from a first job that pays $60k to one of $90k+ a year is
hot take but I don’t think ppl in their teens / early 20’s should care about saving money. You should reinvest it all into upskilling yourself. No ETF is going to give you a better return than the wealth you’ll create when you become highly skilled.
where to spend your money,
"Customers pay to save time, save money, or to have magical experiences. The last is the best because customers are willing to pay so much more."
-From a product launch class at the GSB last week.
I deeply admire Thees and I think he’s the right man for the job. But we need to ditch the whole “create unicorns/decacorns” lingo. It’s not 2021 anymore. Startups who optimized for high valuations at peak are now in deep, messy valuation traps. It’s just not the right framing
Just got back from a pre-MBA trip with 200+ people around the world. Realized that being born a latino is a blessing and a curse:
1. Our high energy levels and warmth positively contaminate people around us;
2. Feels so hard to connect with people who don't share these traits
Now that I'm actually validating a startup idea to build, I'm much more appreciative of the work founders do to find an interesting problem space. It's incredibly hard.
As a VC, you sit back and get a dozen new pitch decks every day — as if it's always been obvious to founders
I now realize one of the best things parents can do for their children is to send them to study abroad. The earlier, the better.
I can see a huge difference in EQ/maturity between friends who did and those who didn’t. Cost can be an issue, but there are scholarships, financial
The most "successful" late-twenties people I know have one trait in common: great clarity in what they want and what they don't want. In jobs, relationships, habits, and even leisure.
Pity that we're not incentivized to think hard about this in any of our formative school years.
@garrytan
Agree on the war on retention. Pricing will be especially important. Especially if we move towards a future of charging per outcome not per usage (away from classic SaaS pricing). Your fine-tuned product will have to be twice as better but not twice as expensive than ChatGPT.
Great talk by Andrew Ng at Stanford. A few interesting takeaways:
- Image generation has picked up a lot of speed in the past year, but image analysis is still in a GPT-2 kind of moment. A lot of opportunities in the computer vision space.
- Infrastructure and dev tools in Gen
From the Steve Jobs Archive book released a couple of days ago.
With each passing year I agree with this more and more. It should be the default mindset of every professional.
Thanks
@arturtavr
for the recommendation (as always!)
I've been traveling for the past couple of weeks, organizing my itinerary around places where my friends live in.
This got me thinking a lot about the hugely understated value of friendships in life.
@noampomsky
put it beautifully in her essay, Making and Keeping Friends
The event ticketing industry in Brazil puzzles me. So many players with low differentiation among them (Sympla, Ingresse, T4F, Eventim, Ingresso Rápido) — how come service fees are so high across the board?
Seems like the perfect market configuration for a race to the bottom.
Jensen Huang on campus today.
"I never look forward in time. I project myself forward in time and look backwards. What have I done? How did I contribute to the world?"
One of the most insightful View From The Top interviews so far. Highly recommend it when it's out on youtube!
I've been a longtime fan of
@naval
, but this week I finally got to read The Almanack of Naval Ravikant in full.
I don't understand why it's not on every list of top business and self-help books out there. So much high-quality consolidated knowledge it's crazy.
There are a few traits in people that serve as affinity shortcuts. Once I know they have them, it instantaneously makes me interested in knowing them better.
I've found one of them is enjoying traveling solo. I personally love it, and it's a joy to discover those who do it.
This weekend we have "pre-Carnival" in major Brazilian cities. There is absolutely no reason why we should do a pre-celebration of what is already a pretty big event in Brazil.
Yet the cities invest plenty of resources in it and say "f*ck it let's be happy". Truly love that!
One of the traits that best differentiate good VCs from bad VCs is also one of the hardest to give constructive feedback on: good judgement.
It's like debating product-market fit with founders. You know it when it's there or when it's not. But so hard to improve it as a skill.
a concept i have internalized but am still struggling to articulate:
all the greats there ever were, all the people you look up to most, the people that seem superhuman—the scientists, thinkers, inventors, creators, artists, founders that seem to have done the impossible, making
All big techs (except for Apple) should learn how to announce product releases with Airbnb. They make (mostly) small design and UX tweaks seem exciting and transformative.
They already have a world-class product and are relentless in optimizing every detail. Kudos!
I wrote down these life principles for myself 5 years ago. I had barely started my first full-time job. I’m quite surprised (and pleased) that I still firmly believe in most, if not all of them.
Airy terrace with a view, relatively empty, great for meetings, next to a Starbucks and with high-speed Wi-Fi through an unprotected WeWork guest network.
Might be the best free work spot outside the office I’ve found in SP 👀
My favorite (and underrated imo) heuristic for meeting new people: asking your close friends to introduce you THEIR close friends.
As adults, we're usually not exposed to large groups of people from which we sort friends out of (like classrooms). Intentionality becomes crucial.
For most people, ambition also seems to decay over time. "Life gets in the way", which makes it all the more important to keep refueling your ambition/drive with people around you.
This is a sad trend for people and society.
It’s been proven for many years now: building a committed relationship with one person and then raising children in that nuclear two-parent family contributes more to creating healthy, happy adults and a well functioning society than
@LatamStocks
I'm biased, but I lived in Tokyo for a year and I can say SP's best sushi spots compete on an equal footing with Tokyo's. Paulistanos should be proud 👊👊
An extremely overlooked podcast for VCs/founders: Grit, by Joubin Mirzadegan from Kleiner Perkins. I think he's the best interviewer in the game.
My favorite question he asks: "what was conversation like at your dinner table when you were growing up?"
Coming to realize that being smart and being high energy are not at all correlated. In fact, they might even be negatively correlated.
When you find someone who’s smart AND high energy, do all you can to keep that person.
Historical platform shift. So many groundbreaking software (AI) and hardware (AR/VR) launches announced in the last 12 months. What a time to be in tech!
A common piece of advice I started to question while at the MBA is: "if you're the smartest person in the room, you're in the wrong room".
I still see value in the underlying principle. But the people who give you this advice have already achieved success.
The truth is being
Built my first AI-powered web app in one afternoon, from idea to deployment. No prior software engineering experience!
Mapx — the easiest way to find startups that raised funding in an industry of your choice:
I did it to test how difficult it is for a
I adore my family. Dad codes to this day and is plugging LLMs into his projects. He was reading academic papers to look for solutions in semantic parsing and found a paper co-written by my younger brother.
I’ve never felt happier being the dumbest in the room.
I've come to realize that "follow your passion" is not necessarily bad advice, but it jumps a few steps. If you're looking for a path to follow, I think the first question you have to answer is: "how much do you care about winning?"
If you don't really care about winning, you
I’m actually surprised by the lack of discussion of the second-order effects on the Klarna news and how neutral journalists are being about it. I’m far from being an AI doomer (quite the opposite), but layoffs WILL be more and more common and millions of white-collar jobs will be
I'm seeing a worrying increase in founders just wanting to catch up and casually "talk about the current market and navigate fundraising strategies". Most of them have 24+ months of runway.
We should all be talking about execution, not fundraising.
It's been 5 months since ChatGPT launched, and my feed is still flooded daily with "the best prompts I should learn to use". Strongest content persistence I've ever seen honestly
"Y Combinator" is such a fantastic brand name. It's unique, edgy, has a cool backstory and its acronym sounds great. We need more names like this in the tech world!
The more I get older, the more I realize how fulfilling it must be to live a life of simply reading, thinking and writing. It's the ultimate privilege.
One of the positives of obsessing over a song for a few weeks is that many years from now, when you hear that song again, it’ll instantly take you back to that period of your life.
One of those tiny things that bring a smile
There are many differences between US and LatAm startups, but one of the starkest is how much better the landing page design is in American ones.
It boggles my mind—design should be universal now. Anyone can access great templates and the same sources of inspiration.
What
Went on a hike yesterday with a group of friends interested in tech in emerging markets. We had very thoughtful conversations.
One of them mentioned that conversations during hikes or long car drives are effective because you're not constantly making eye contact. You usually
@Nicobot01
Amazing thoughts, Nico. Definitely agree that specialized training data and a skeuomorphic UX for industries that need it (healthcare is the best example) can be relevant moats. And as far as reality-bending founders exist, you're among the best of them!
This is so insane:
- Brazil has banned X
- Brazil will fine anyone $8,000 per day if they see them use X via VPN
Brazilians fight back against this!
🇧🇷💪 Lutem!
Learning new stuff and transforming that stuff into ideas useful to you are two completely different processes. Business school is great for the first one, but terrible for the second.
Making time for introspection has never been more important to me.
Interacting with Alexa and Siri now feels like going back in time.
Incredible how in a short span of 4 months, all AI tools being released in the market have rendered these multi-year projects completely outdated.
What will happen when AI drives the marginal cost of creating anything digitally — software, movies, games — to zero?
What will customers value, and where will the flow of money go to? Scarce physical resources and assets?
Using ChatGPT as a student makes me think about the countless hours spent on content creation for students—textbooks, exercises, quizzes, tests, etc.—that can now be generated in an instant.
Whatever we focus to work on in the next few years might become obsolete in the
There are plenty of threads like this on Twitter. But this one was incredibly insightful.
"Every year you put it off [having kids] is one less year you get to enjoy your grandkids"
"Reading allows you to borrow someone else’s brain, and have a conversation with the most
Things I’ve Learned
What I wish I knew at 18…
1. College is mostly a scam
I’m glad I went to college, because I wanted to work on Wall Street. But today, I wouldn’t waste $300,000 on it, and I wouldn’t want to work in banking. Instead, I’d load up on college credits during
Sunset loop run around Lake Lagunita. 10min jog distance from home.
The privilege of living in this place is immense. Feeling so grateful for experiencing peak life in many dimensions.
One of the wonderful byproducts of getting older is that people around you also do, and they get more emotionally intelligent. They've seen more, they tolerate more. There's less drama and more understanding.
Makes it easier to take risks and pursue authenticity.
AI automating customer service is nice. But imagine AI interpreting the customer's pain point, going through the product's code, fixing the bug, updating docs and telling the customer the issue is solved?
This would be truly game-changing.
A friend told me how he has finally developed a “permanency mindset” — realizing you are exactly where you want to be for the next few years.
I just moved to my 5th different “home” in 2 years. I think that’s enough for my 20s. I want my next place to be THE one for years.
There's beauty to learning something and unlocking lifelong appreciation for it by merely understanding more about it.
Like enjoying Formula 1 after watching Drive to Survive, or appreciating wine after doing a tasting course.
A couple hours' investment for lifelong return.
The single best piece of advice I've ever gotten about writing: write shorter sentences.
Put some pause in that long chain of thought. Give rhythm to what you say. Writing this way gives the reader some time to think — and gives you clarity on what comes next.
"No offense" is one of the most net-negative things you could say in a sentence. In 99% of cases the other party will already feel offended immediately.
Best read of the week. Huge if true — although maybe for the first time since the AI hype started, I'm more concerned than excited.
Regulating and ensuring AI safety on open-source models running all across the world sounds nearly impossible.
The best wins in life require leverage. You need to have an upper hand over the situation. Ideally that comes with true informational leverage — you know more than the other party about a subject.
But I've been increasingly aware that perception leverage also can produce big
2022 was such an eventful year.
I wonder if it's a perception bias after finally entering "post-pandemic" times, a de facto changing socio-political and technological landscape in the world, or a combination of both.
@chrmanning
I’d say so. Especially in tech, startups have remembered that they only need two things: to build a product and to sell. The harsh reality is MBAs (in general) generate more value in larger cos but these have slowed down hiring big time
Going to b-school after years working in demanding industries (with a pandemic in the middle!) makes you more appreciative of how easy it is to make friends in this setting.
Loneliness is a proven malaise of our generation, and b-school facilitates connections like crazy
Tried out the Cursor course in
@TakeoffAI
today. Insane value — hands down the best content I've seen for anyone who wants to get started in coding in this age of AI. Great job
@mckaywrigley
You’re <10 hours of focused learning away from being able to build your own apps & websites.
This can be done in a weekend.
And with AI tools you’re *completely* out of excuses for putting it off.
Invest a single weekend into this and it will pay off for the rest of your life.
@thebrightappceo
@parejogonzalo
@abreunotes
others might disagree but:
15m - mindful of the other party's time (good) but most likely could've been an email
30m - sweet spot IMO
60m - excessive, time better spent executing, borderline rude given it's supposedly just a catch-up
Officially increasing exposure to US tech stocks after sitting on Brazilian bonds the past 12 months.
I could be way off here, but market sentiment appears to have changed for beaten-down high-quality stocks. Everyone's cut the fat and the efficiency mindset is here to stay.
Been thinking a lot about this Tove Jansson quote:
"It is simply this: do not tire, never lose interest, never grow indifferent—lose your invaluable curiosity and you let yourself die. It's as simple as that."
Finding what captivates us is life's greatest quest.
Historic day in tech. To think that OpenAI runs with less than 1,000 people is awe-inspiring. The impact of their products is already in Big Tech league, with a much faster shipping speed. Their talent density will only increase from here.
All the updates from Open AI Dev Day
Open AI’s dev day was terrrrriffic. Sam Altman launched a new language model, with tons of added powers. Then announced a bunch of other models to API. Took some sweet time to chat with Satya (and poke him about OpenAI and Microsoft’s
Here are my Top 12 stats from the just-released 2023 LatAm Digital Transformation Report (download link below) by
@JulioV
and our
@AtlanticoPart
venture team 🇧🇷🇲🇽🇨🇴🇦🇷 (Thread)
These days on Instagram there's like one ad for every two stories. It's crazy. And we're so addicted to the dopamine rush that we don't even notice it anymore.
Best read of the last few days. More founders should write pieces like this. Very insightful for aspiring entrepreneurs, investors and anyone in between.
I used to think this way, until I realized how important smart generalists can be in fast-paced environments. The very best CoS become an extension of the founders' mind, which can be a significant high-leverage move.
Kinda what
@gokulr
says here:
Speaking as someone who could be considered a double minority in the US (Asian + Latino): despite all its flaws, the US is the best country in the world to be a minority, and it’s not even close.
Perplexity’s latest growth hack is incredible. They are rallying students across the U.S. to sign up, offering a year of free Perplexity Pro if their school reaches more than 500 signups.
After the past few days, based on my group chats, I’d be really surprised if anyone at
Every year we see headlines about how chocolate Easter eggs' prices in Brazil have been outpacing inflation dramatically.
But why is that? Curious to see how their margins are behaving, given that they're way past customers' willingness to pay already.