50 percent of my time as a referee
1. "Please enter your password"
2. Your password is wrong, click here to reset your password.
3. Type your new password here.
4. New password cannot be the same as old password. Try again.
5. Screams at screen
To finish off my Econ principles class, we covered game theory and oligopoly. I pointed out that studying for the final was a prisoner's dilemma. Even more so if no one (meaning not a single person took the final) I'd have to curve it so they all got an A. 1/12
#econforeveryone
When I teach Econ MicroPrinciples, my students can make memes for me to use in class for extra credit (I also make some of my own throughout the year).
Here are some of the pretty good ones we made to summarize the class.
#econforeveryone
1/15
Common terms in labor economics I don't like are
"Skilled" and "unskilled" labor. What would be better? College educated vs vocational? There has to be something better, because lots of "unskilled labor" requires a ton of skill/experience and job specific human capital.
THis is a big month for economics in the popular media. First, Crazy Rich Asians. Now Dr. Ryan on Jack Ryan on Amazon Prime. Favorite part, he says he's a Dr. of Economics and a soldier asks for stock tips and he just stares back like OMG...
Roses are read,
violets are BLUE,
and OLS isn't
which broke my heart when I learned undergrad econometrics is all a bunch of lies just waiting to fall apart due to implasible assumptions that never hold true in the real world.
My daughter's proof the Earth is round. "If it was flat, millions of kids would take selfies at the edge. We don't see that. So the Earth it must be round." QED. She has figured out proof by contradiction already on her own!!!! Take that
@KyrieIrving
...
Oil prices are really low. People aren't driving much.
Now is the perfect time to implement a significant carbon tax or at least gasoline tax, and match it with a carbon tax dividend.
Who's with me????
Fentanyl is now almost certainly the biggest killer of Americans between the ages of 18 and 49. Economists may have at last found a convincing explanation for the crisis ⬇️
"The Advisory Board of the Journal of Political Economy has placed Harald Uhlig on leave from his role as editor of the Journal pending a determination of the Board..given recent accusations of discriminatory conduct in a University classroom setting."
I'm honored the
@SOLE_Labor_Econ
for recognizing the work
@jenniferdoleac
and I did on BTB with the receipt of the H. Gregg Lewis Prize. As society continues to grapple with disparities and inequities, a simple solution is to blind ourselves to information.
Is anybody going to write a Journal of Economic Perspectives piece where they discuss all of the common trends in the recent papers in the new DiD literature?
Did anybody else think last nights GOT was a lot like the first day at a conference? "Hey hows it going? You're all grown up & got tenure? Who's a dean? Congrats on the pub... yada yada yada. That paper...yeah it was burned alive when it refused to bow to referee 2."
When you update your linkedin to say you're a "Professor" and all of your students are like you weren't a professor before??
Then I have explain the difference between assistant, associate and full....
So the internet tried to cancel Prof Emily Oster for speaking many truths and what the super super majority of people are doing right now. Might as well cancel me too, because I agree with her, I just don't have the platform, and courage, to say it so openly and publicly.
My friend is going on a cruise in California for $149. Five day, all inclusive cruise. Basically everyone is canceling, and cruises are apparently giving good deals.
The best part of Jack Ryan season 2, when asked for a stock tip as a Ph.D. economist he says "Buy an index fund." If I had a dollar for everytime this happens to me and I suggest the same or paying a monkey to throw darts.
@c_a_gravert
Whole separate tweet about writing in latex...
1. Write stuff
2. Compile works and document is beautfiul
3. Edit something
4. Compile errors for literally hours
5. Find missing / or } after digging for hours and hours
6. Make fun of people who write in word
Strongly disagree with this take. There is no implicit contract to revise your manuscript for a journal who's reviewers and editor rejected you.
It's take it or leave it advice, the referees should expect that with a rejection.
One should always treat a rejection (with comments) as an R&R. Some might argue that in instances such as this, a reviewer should decline invitation. Sure. But had the authors addressed the comments, they would have given themselves a chance with this reviewer. They blew it.
I was recently interviewed by Willamette Weekly. My favorite question "(Are) cannabis advocates are disingenuous and motivated by profit?"
My Answer "I'm an economist. I think everybody is motivated by self interest."
The Good News: Vaccines are available and we've vaccinated over 66,000 people in Oregon.
The Bad News: At current pace we won't be done until next year.
The Scary News: The cubic fit says we will be vaccinating negative people in about 10 days.
This of course sets up a giant prisoner's dilemma. One student asked me if I was serious, and I said yes, but said not a single person could take it, and expressed my doubt they'd collude. They then started an email thread with 400 other people trying to set up collusion. 2/12
@wwwojtekk
90 percent of people wear seatbelts. But they're good enough at preventing serious injuries and fatalities that 50 percent of fatal crashes not wearing a seat belt.
It's actually one of the reasons drunk driving is so dangerous. Way less likely to wear seat belts.
The University of Oregon decided to end their outdated security protocol of changing passwords every year and update to two factor authentication. I was happy about this while some others are annoyed. To make sure everyone is unhappy, they kept the password update thing too.
The
@JPolEcon
recently decided to publish monthly. Given its impossible for the
@QJEHarvard
to the same, who wants to start the Monthly Journal of Economics (MJE) with me?
I know I'm a newbie at R and this won't earn me any brownie points with the cool kids, put for data cleaning and straightforward regression,
@Stata
is so much easier.
@millersdrafts
, Caroline Weber, and my paper on cross border spillovers with Marijuana is officially fully published
@JPubEcon
. You can find the full paper here .
In this paper we find when marijuana was legalized in OR, sales fell in WA.
One final note on the
#NBERSI
and conferences generally. They exist as this magic island away from all of our personal lives. Sometimes people leave sessions or your talk for abrupt reasons. In my case, I had to leave some talks for updates about my daughter (she's fine).
Pro tips for all assistant professors. Don't read teaching evals when they first come out. Wait a week. Other pro tip, when you get a letter inviting you to revise and resubmit a manuscript, don't read the referee reports right away. Bask in the glory for a while first...
I'm a thirty eight year tenured college professor. Due to running late, today my mom dropped me off at school. And yes, I publicly had to say I love you.
My Grandma Hansen, who died about 14 years ago, had some thoughts on getting through a crisis a cousin just shared on FB. Miss her, love her, and damn, she is right on all of this.
In a new working paper, Tim Moore, Will Olney and I study the role of legal imports as a potential key smuggling channel for
#fentanyl
. A key trait of fentanyl is its potency, which is highly complementary to smuggling. 1/8
Sometimes job candidates or potential grad students subtly ask how we deal with long rainy winters in Oregon. Some people get hipsters sweaters and read by a fire. Other people focus on growing things in their green house. Some people trail run. We all find ways to endure.
@JaminSpeer
Comparative advantage. I can be useful even if I'm not the best at anything. That's an important message to kids in the coming generation when social media and the internet can constantly reminder them somebody else is better at the thing you are good at.
For all this discussion of coauthorship with pre-docs, shoutout to
@joepricebyu
, who has been mentoring and coauthoring with undergrads and sending dozens off to grad school for the last decade.
I promise the airport was out of economy rental cars and I ended up with convertible upgrade for free. What a drive through northeast today on the way back to the airport....Thank you for the feedback
@dartmouthecon
!
This then created a tiktok that went viral getting over 3m views (). Unfortunately within a day, collusion had broken down because a student had to take the final early (and within 3 days 16 had taken it early). I let the class know the next lecture. 3/12
Protip for anybody at the
#NBERSI
, there are paper instructions inside the metal water bottle you should probably remove before filling it up and drinking...based on in-depth qualitative research I engaged in at least.
interesting theory and point estimates from these graphs. I hear we'll get back the standard errors from the structural models after 8 months of bootstrapping.
For all the econ job market candidates, coming up are some of the more difficult times in the job season. Waiting. Sometimes you have to wait hours to know your fate. Sometimes you have to wait days. Sometimes, weeks or months.
#econjobmarket
And another bonus fun one. Teaching principles class can be challenging, and encouraging people to do the readings is always hard. Humor can be useful tool to help them to understand concepts deeply, and it keeps them awake in lecture. This is my TED talk. 18/18
MBER had a fantastic meeting in Bozeman this week. If you are interested in a nomination for MBER (Mountain Biking Economist) Riders, please reach out to the PResident (
@carly_urban
) or president elect (
@jillianbcarr
). Nominations close on 7/10.
Excited new present new and exciting research at
@UofMaryland
and
@Americanu
about the minimum legal drinking age and victimization. First time this has seen the light of day, and we're really excited for feedback and to move this important work forward.
Everybody else is freaking out this happened. I'd just like to know if they've been doing this for a long time and if the records of the non-arrest stops exist. Both a natural experiment and RCT????
Before applied micro econometricians were worried about DiD, Broken or Fixed Effects came out, which basically nests the DiD papers which have come after. What do you think
@jmwooldridge
and
@causalinf
?
Sorry (not sorry) to miss econ summer camp at the NBER SI this year. My dad is turning 70 and excited to be at his party rn. Tim Moore, Will Olney and I have a new paper tomorrow in the crime session you should check out if you're in the area or can get the stream. C U next yr!
@ThomasJDurfee
I have heard explicit appreciation for a deeper understanding of why coordinating group behavior is hard in the presence of individual self interest to deviate.
UC Denver is one the best departments you might not have heard of while in graduate school, especially for for applied micro. Great colleagues, great city, great outdoors.
I've changed how I write my reports recently. In my letter to the editor I start by trying to make the strongest argument for publication. Then I try outline the biggest critiques of the paper. Then I discuss reasonable weights of each, and trust the editor to make calls.
Ok, listen up, everyone, Esther Duflo just said "Referees need to be more positive. This is just a paper in the AER , it's not some divine piece coming down! I am limited by the number of positive reports I get not by space available in the journal"
@causalinf
@erinhengel
@saskatchewin
My typical rejection letter these days. "These results, while important, convincing, and original, are not that surprising."
This is one of my favorite Mondays of the year. Done with lectures for the next 9 months!!! Now I just have to explain to my friends I'm actually working when I'm not teaching.
Recently, me,
@JessamynSchall1
, and Joe Sabia (
@SDSUCHEPS
) investigated teen suicide and in person schooling. This extends on earlier work I did with Matt Lang. 1/n
Teen suicides plummeted in March '20, when schools shut due to COVID. Returning from online to in-person schooling was associated with a 12-18% increase in teen suicides, from
@benconomics
@SDSUCHEPS
and Schaller
How to respond to referees who argue a result is not important because they were not surprised by it, even if the paper was convincing, policy relevant, and novel (their words)? Does demand slope down?
#magnitudesmatter
#sciencebysurprises
=
#biasandfailedreplication
.
Pro tip for anybody going to the
#NBERSI
(aka
#econsummercamp
) for the first time. Ignore Boston's weather forecast (which actually looks ok). Prepare for the Sonesta like any mountain: dress in layers. Expect the rooms to range from tolerable, to cold, to hypothermia inducing.
It finally happened. I have officially added these words to my syllabus. Time for me to learn how to do some stuff:-)
@grant_mcdermott
,
@edrubin
, couple more and we'll get a tipping point...
Update
#3
. Kiddos are back in school, quarantine over. Wife is confirmed Covid+. Her fever broke yesterday, and energy is increasing, still has a cough. My tonsils were swollen yesterday. Had my test today. Remembering a few weeks ago better days ahead.