Cade Massey Profile Banner
Cade Massey Profile
Cade Massey

@bcmassey

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I study & teach decision-making, influence & negotiation.

Austin/Philly
Joined March 2009
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
@bcmassey
Cade Massey
5 years
Thank you, internet. I'm fully expressed now.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
6 years
Damn near everything I know is in this piece. It's also basically a 2000-word version of my Influence course.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
4 years
Possibly the best thing I've read on the pandemic since it all started. By @zeynep , naturally.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
7 years
V nicely done, @buster . Entire field > wikipedia > written sum > exhaustive dataviz > cheat sheet: . HT @blakewooster
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
4 years
Fantastic demo of how a person's behavior has far bigger consequences than he/she incurs individually. Classic collective action problem, something governments were literally created to solve. We can argue about what else they should do, but there should be no argument here.
@page_eco
Lionel Page
4 years
Brilliant demonstration. #StayHomeSaveLives by @memotv
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
4 years
Gold standard for learning here. Write down your forecast, give the whole distribution not just a point, track against results, repeat. Oh, and visualize beautifully and share with the world. Amazing.
@fotpetr
Fotios Petropoulos
4 years
New #COVID2019 forecasts with data up to 10/04/2020. The error at the end of 10/04/2020 was -482K (over-forecasting); MAPE=28.5%. The confirmed cases forecast for 20/04/2020 is 2.98M; a 25% chance to exceed 4.63M; and a 5% chance to exceed 9.14M. @spyrosmakrid
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
2 years
1/ You should have heard the conversation at break! Got real clear, and a little profane. We'll likely come back to this issue of simulations (i.e. forecasting and uncertainty). Taps into big stuff, so we need to get better at talking about it. My thoughts this morning (long!):
@tefreeman
Terry Freeman
2 years
@WMoneyball love you guys but that last segment was probably understood by 12 people. Kinda geeked out there. Keep up the good work!
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
9 years
Latest @HardcoreHistory ends w/ this fearsome lady, Tomyris. The best statue in statue-happy Astana. Had no idea.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
5 years
The more experienced a person is with data, the more they appreciate its limits. Fantastic piece here by @jonesrooy . HT @NeilLewisJr
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
5 years
Yet again, @dmorey is going to end up being both right and ahead of the curve.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
6 years
"Manifesto for a new data world", by @giorgialupi . Some nice challenges to data scientists and social scientists alike. Should probably re-post weekly. #WhartonPAC
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
5 months
Hey @instagram . My account on your platform has been hacked / taken over and the support you offer online is laughably unhelpful. Suggestions?
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
6 years
Hiring biases, perfectly distilled by @fosslien :
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
6 years
Tomorrow is the 10-year anniversary of Michael Lewis' classic "No-Stats All-Star" profile of @ShaneBattier . Fantastic read on analytics, performance evaluation, collective effects and more. Cameos from @dmorey , @samhinkie and @DanWetzel . Worth re-reading: .
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
5 months
Probably the best take I've ever seen on the messiness of the NFL draft. So much expertise, so much at stake, so much chance - it's a glorious mess.
@alec_lewis
Alec Lewis
5 months
Spent the last couple of months trying to answer a question: How random is the NFL Draft? The answer led me to Nobel Prize-winning professors, to Johnny Manziel and to the messy concoction that makes the event so fascinating. For @TheAthletic :
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
5 years
“It’s predatory. They’re being encouraged to walk into a buzz saw.” Always fun to hang with @spanky , even if just by reading about him. Serious piece and long, but worth it. HT @RufusPeabody
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
8 years
"He has been a very, very lucky camper. What sets him apart is that he knows it." Becoming Michael Lewis: .
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
6 years
National Review: "This letter represents America’s most-respected warrior telling the nation that he does not believe the president sees our enemies clearly, understands the importance of our alliances, or perceives the necessity of American leadership."
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
8 years
Who Actually Won the Moneyball Revolution? Analytics community comes of age, is humbler for it: .
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
6 years
Adi: I gave an impromptu lecture in machine learning two days ago in my class and people went crazy. Me: Really?! What does it look like when people go crazy over a machine learning lecture? Adi: They stop looking at their phones. (@ 19:10)
@WMoneyball
Wharton Moneyball
6 years
This morning’s show is available NOW! 2018 Midterm Election Results (00:00) CFB Projections and more w/ @ngreenberg (30:36) Football Analytics & NFL Stats w/ @MichaelSalfino (52:10) Sports Betting w/ @RufusPeabody of @MasseyPeabody (1:22:16)
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
2 years
Just an NFL head coach thumbing through Michael Lewis's book about Kahneman & Tversky, throwing around favorite lines. That's all. “The new definition of a nerd,” he recites. “A person who knows his own mind well enough to mistrust it.” Go Chargers.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
12 years
In the very uncertain NFL draft, here's a certainty: the top 6 *prospects* will not be the top 6 *players*. http://t.co/kjrUHih6
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
11 months
12 years ago @LukeBornn was a stats grad student, today he is a part owner of multiple pro sports franchises around the world. Had the chance to hear about that journey last week. One of the sharpest guys in the business, and one of the nicest:
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Cade Massey
2 years
Members of the student team doing great behind-the-scenes work at today's Future of Work conference. @WhartonPA @Wharton . Love our students.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
4 years
1/If last night lit a fire under you, or pushed you over some edge, there’s more to do than just voting against Trump. You can also hold the Senate accountable.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
4 years
Toward a better understanding of what makes teams great. Trying to look beyond the obvious, but in a rigorous way. A fun and ongoing collaboration with @SFIscience 's @C4COMPUTATION :
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
2 years
A lot of us bust on "The Chart" all the time, but we ought to give Mike McCoy, the original creator, more credit - it was one of the first real data analytics efforts in football, and hugely influential. This week's draft will be the first since he passed away last fall. 1/3
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
5 years
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
7 years
Could not be more thrilled for @R_Thaler . A true original. So many of us are so indebted to him.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
5 years
Pre-gaming with quite possibly my favorite panel ever. These guys killed it. Would have happily kept going all afternoon. + @SOLeary05 @WhartonSBSummit @ZachDrapkin @friscojosh
@MikeTanier
Mike Tanier
5 years
The state of football analytics. @FO_ASchatz @PFF_Eric @joshherms
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Cade Massey
6 years
A sobering share of our life is subject to luck, but that doesn't mean there is nothing we can do. @daniel_egan on "The Skill of Managing Luck": .
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Cade Massey
6 years
"Kerr has been known to seek out Gelfand in the final hour before tipoff in search of one more easily digestible statistic to help slam home his pregame messaging." HT @EdwardTufte
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Cade Massey
6 years
Used this from @juliagalef in class yesterday. Appreciate the wisdom but mostly it just makes me happy to read it.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
6 years
This is great. Irreducible uncertainty. If only we had these numbers for other industries too.
@StatsbyLopez
Michael Lopez
6 years
@MichaelSalfino @friscojosh @bcmassey Teams have been no better at evaluating QBs in draft than they are at any other position so not sure I buy this.
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Cade Massey
5 years
Neat. Parallels what we discovered in the NFL draft, and Google found with hiring interviews, and many have shown with mutual fund managers. Irreducible uncertainty is a bear. And deceptive. Somebody called it the "paradox of skill"...
@mjmauboussin
Michael Mauboussin
5 years
TL;DR Do Any Economists Have Superior Forecasting Skills? "there is very little evidence that any individual forecasters can beat a simple equal-weighted average of peer forecasts." h/t Rocky Cahan
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
3 years
My entire Influence course in a single slide.
@AdamMGrant
Adam Grant
3 years
Many promising ideas fail to see the light of day not because they're wrong, but because their champions fail to persuade the right audience. Having a good idea is less than half the battle. Change is fueled by people with the will and skill to communicate their visions.
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Cade Massey
4 years
[Me, trying to build rapport with a classroom full of Kuwaitis in exec ed]: Sorry about PSG in Champions League. I knew I'd be in here with you guys so I was *really* pulling for them. Dang that Man United. [Students]: [Me]: [One student]: That's Qatar. Qataris own PSG.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
3 years
When one of your favorite sportswriters ( @bykevinclark ) takes on one of your favorite topics (essentially: how contextual performance evaluation is) and drops @R_Thaler into the lede. Great stuff.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
4 years
Something profound here: “What people don’t understand is, it’s not what you can coach. It’s what you fix. A lot of people can coach. The key to it is, in 8 seconds, can you fix it? If they do something you haven’t seen, within 8 seconds, what’s within your repertoire to fix it?
@BruceFeldmanCFB
Bruce Feldman
4 years
Looking for a pure football story today? Check out our deep dive into what makes Gary Patterson such a brilliant defensive coach. (Those Friday night #TCU defensive meetings are like no other.)
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Cade Massey
2 years
17/ As Michael Lewis put it re Moneyball: HT @robneyer
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
5 years
After >5 years finally hosting a show by myself. Tune-in or download if you like watching slow trainwrecks. Call-in if you like stopping them!
@WMoneyball
Wharton Moneyball
5 years
With @bcmassey is flying solo on Wednesday we have an action-packed for you! GUESTS: 8:10AM - @RufusPeabody of @MasseyPeabody 8:30AM - @HermanPontzer of @DukeU 9AM - @ESPN_BillC of @ESPNCFB 9:30AM - @chriszop of @ESPNFC Tune in as always on #SiriusXM132 - @BizRadio132 !
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Cade Massey
4 years
True that. Also: Regression-to-the-mean is *really* tough to beat.
@waitbutwhy
Tim Urban
4 years
In my experience, getting to know someone I lionize ends up being a disappointment and getting to know someone I demonize is pleasantly surprising. Because humans aren't angels or demons, they're humans.
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Cade Massey
7 years
I suppose I shouldn't be surprised we're just now getting around to telling AI models to think about uncertainty: . HT @AdamMGrant
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
4 years
Super helpful.
@geowu
George Wu
4 years
Here's a screenshot with n=25. Notice how much of the country is orange is bright orange or red. That means, assemble a group of 25 people and there is >50% chance that at least one is positive.
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Cade Massey
5 years
Keep score, man. The best tool for improving decision-making is decidedly low tech. Love that Myers is all about it.
@SheilKapadia
Sheil Kapadia
5 years
Warriors GM Bob Myers talks to @timkawakami about @theathletic article on seven ideas for gaining an edge in the NFL Draft: Cool to see this applied to NBA. Myers stresses keeping score, revisiting old decisions to get better.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
5 years
This was a fun conversation. The bit I'd like to be clearest about: "That’s not to say these guys aren’t good at their jobs. They’re fantastic at their jobs. It’s just that they’re really hard jobs. And so there’s a limit to how accurate you can be.”
@SheilKapadia
Sheil Kapadia
5 years
Read the book Superforecasting, had a great conversation with @bcmassey and came up with seven ideas for how NFL teams can try to find small edges during the draft process. Would love to hear feedback on this one.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
2 years
Today is our annual reminder that we know less than we think we know. HT @DLeonhardt Double HT @R_Thaler
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
5 years
Very cool. I'm biased and overconfident but my strong priors are that this is true, important and generalizable (i.e., it matters in your non-soccer-playing life too), and that Lionel shows it in some exceedingly clever way.
@page_eco
Lionel Page
5 years
Our paper on the overrewarding of lucky successes is now published! We looked at over 10k football shots landing on posts. Players who are—just—successful get more playing time and higher ratings, than those who are—just—unsuccessful. In REStat, ungated:
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
10 years
On merging analytics with human judgment, by @mjmauboussin : http://t.co/cba6EqkfkQ. Best I've seen on big, important topic. HT @tylercowen
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
6 years
Mejdal is setting the bar *really* high for how an effective analyst goes about his/her work: . He's the best. Hell, he was leading the pack before this little number and now we've lost track of him altogether.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
4 years
n+1/Been on here for 10+ years and have never done politics. Would love to go another 10 without "needing" to again.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
5 years
Pretty sure this is all of life. Used to be certain of it. ;)
@PaisleyRekdal
Paisley Rekdal
5 years
Just asked by young student about becoming a writer. I said you have to start out believing you're far better than you are in order to actually get better, then age into realizing you're far worse than you are in order to stay good.
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Cade Massey
2 years
6/ A sim reflects how we think the world works. So it shouldn’t be surprising that they end up codifying some of our biggest biases! People neglect uncertainty all the time, so of course they don’t put enough of it into their sims.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
6 years
“What's the most counterintuitive insight from organizations investing heavily in people analytics? Most research sounds like common sense...feels like this is another overhyped field.” @AdamMGrant 's answer, first in a series from @mitsmr : .
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
5 months
Love these guys and their show. Appreciated the chance to go on.
@RufusPeabody
Rufus
5 months
On this week's @BetTheProcess we talk NFL draft & decision-making w/ Wharton professor @bcmassey , who's worked with NFL teams for 2 decades. He talks about overconfidence, how to blend expert opinions, and how to have influence at an organizational level.
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Cade Massey
2 years
4/ This kills me because it’s the same battle over and over again. People are just not good at recognizing what they don’t know. Which of course leads them to believe things that just aren’t so. (HT Billings/Twain/Gilovich).
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
7 years
These 14 MBAs are hosting ~500 conference goers the next 2 days. Phenomenal team. #WhartonPAC
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
2 years
Strongly recommend Split The Pie, a new negotiation book by @BarryNalebuff . You might reasonably have thought the world doesn't need a new negotiation book, but this one says something new. Which is remarkable. 1/
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
6 years
Wharton People Analytics is hiring a full-time data scientist. Neat opportunity - would appreciate your spreading the world.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
6 years
Yes! Perfect. Why'd we even bother to write a paper?!
@bburkeESPN
Brian Burke
6 years
. @bcmassey @R_Thaler Here's a better one.
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Cade Massey
6 years
"The most important piece of the rescue was good luck."
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
2 years
3/ At a superficial level this matters because ESPN & others put out probabilities – like your team’s chance of making the playoffs – that are unsound. These days they’re blasted all over TV & the internet. And unsound in a v particular way – they are too sure of what they know.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
3 years
This is glorious. New favorite coach?
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
4 years
"Moneyball for fire". Unbelievable. The power of analogy. And @dmorey 's example. And @kirkgoldsberry 's heat maps!
@WMoneyball
Wharton Moneyball
4 years
When @USDA Research Forester Matt Thompson shares how Moneyball and the Houston Rockets are being used to help @ForestService combat wildfires we file in under: 'Our Favorite Content' CC: @DMorey , @HoustonRockets , @ShaneBattier
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Cade Massey
2 years
1/ Remarkable op/ed page at @nytimes today. 8 columnists write about their being wrong in the past. E.g. @nytdavidbrooks re capitalism, @michelleinbklyn re Al Franken, and @zeynep re the power of protests. Powerful exercise in intellectual humility.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
5 years
The good folks at PFF setting an entirely new bar for draft analytics.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
4 years
We've long known @xkcdComic 's Randall Munroe is a genius, but this is some seriously world-class reframing (and persuasion): .
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
3 years
Pretty sure this effect passes the @geowu @Devin_G_Pope "graph instead of statistical test" test.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
8 years
"The battle was never between the quants and the gut-instinct types, it was between the curious and the incurious."
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
6 years
With college football kicking off today we have our pre-season numbers up at . 9th-season working with @RufusPeabody , one my all-time favorite collaborations. Have learned a ton - understand uncertainty and forecasting so much better because of Rufus.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
7 years
Good Lord. Major props to @dmorey & @jessicagelman . The little conference they created out of thin air just a few years ago seems to be doing okay.
@dmorey
Daryl Morey 🗽🏀
7 years
. @BarackObama , the 44th President of the United States, will speak at @SloanSportsConf  February 23. We are pleased to welcome President Barack Obama, a well-known sports fan. Visit for more details #ssac18 #analyzethis
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
7 years
Congrats to @Wharton alum @jluhnow on the Astros' 1st World Championship. He shared some wisdom with us last Feb: .
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
3 years
Very cool real-world, randomized, long-term research on the impact of pre-K programs. A key finding was essentially about *performance measures*: while test scores weren't different, important outcomes (e.g., delinquency, college) were. @DLeonhardt :
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
4 months
Good excuse to recommend Escape From Model Land by the terrific @H4wkm0th . @greerreNFL , suspect you'd love it. Should prolly recommend it annually, around the draft, as ballast for all the GM/scout criticism we send around.
@bcmassey
Cade Massey
4 months
@greerreNFL @RufusPeabody @mixedknuts @canzhiye This and the the comment above it are all terrific points. Robby is pushing at the limits and assumptions in our models, which are many. Strong agree that we have to be cautious in our confidence in models in the same way we have to be cautious in our confidence in experts.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
5 years
This is clearly exaggerated for effect but, frankly, worth exaggerating.
@NateSilver538
Nate Silver
5 years
If you want to be a good data scientist, you should spend ~49% of your time developing your statistical intuition (i.e. how to ask good questions of the data), and ~49% of your time on domain knowledge (improving overall understanding of your field). Only ~2% on methods per se.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
4 years
The 8th Annual Wharton People Analytics Student Case Competition is underway. This year our partner is @TeachForAmerica . Still a week to register, and a few weeks to work. Test your analytics chops and help a great non-profit along the way.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
3 years
tbh Ohio State losing games they’re not supposed to has been my most reliable source of college football pleasure the last few years.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
7 years
@realtomhayden Far more common, and worse, is never getting to #2 .
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
7 years
And human-machine collaboration might do better yet.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
4 years
"There are more Trump voters in California than Texas, more Biden voters in Texas than NY, more Trump voters in NY than Ohio, more Biden voters in Ohio than Massachusetts, more Trump voters in Massachusetts than Mississippi, and more Biden voters in Mississippi than Vermont."
@xkcd
Randall Munroe
4 years
2020 Election Map
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Cade Massey
8 years
Somehow the 1st big thought piece on significance of Theo's accomplishment is likely to be the best: . HT @nzandan
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Cade Massey
2 years
15/ This connects some to @notthefakesvp ’s recent pod discussion about models. It needs to not be a religious war. We need more modelers talking about their flaws and more non-modelers talking about their virtues.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
6 years
Yikes. This is obscene. Like, put-a-towel-over-it obscene. HT @ATabarrok
@revodavid
David Smith
6 years
Histogram of P-values (rounded, presumably, to the nearest 0.01) published in millions of scientific studies. Hmm. Great, provocative talk by @StatGarrett at #earlconf
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Cade Massey
8 years
Finally got around to @kathrynschulz 's piece on the Cascadia fault line: . Scary as hell, but my god it's well done.
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Cade Massey
4 years
The @nytimes needs a stats editor, or stats omsbudsman! Maybe one of two US dailies that could actually afford it.
@jpsimmon
Joe Simmons
4 years
Participants were not randomly assigned to condition. n = 12 in the morning condition n = 20 in the afternoon condition All significant p-values were between .02 and .05. I'm going to keep running in the morning.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
3 years
Congrats to the classes of 2021! You've persevered in a way no class before you has in generations. Very strong work. One last note on your way out:
@dstildco
dstild
3 years
See the world as it is, and as you want it to be.
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Cade Massey
4 years
One of the best summaries of Christianity I've ever heard. More from your mom next Sunday, please!
@ConnieSchultz
Connie Schultz
4 years
Mom said being a Christian means fixing yourself & helping others, not the other way around. Any pastor willing to endanger the lives of parishioners by encouraging them to gather in church is in need of human intervention. A leader doesn’t need an audience to do God’s work.
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Cade Massey
2 years
7/ Getting the right amount of uncertainty into a sim is hard. But doing so *should be* an advantage of sims over other tools – producing distributions, concretely demonstrating variance. Uncertainty is a feature! So deserves a lot more attention that modelers are giving it.
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@bcmassey
Cade Massey
5 years
Got analytics chops?! Let's see 'em. Registration dates in the people analytics + non-profit world: 1) student case competition with UNICEF data (Jan 31), and 2) dataviz competition with Doctors Without Borders (Feb 2). For @WhartonPAC in Philly Apr 2/3:
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Cade Massey
4 years
Anyone can podcast, don't be intimidated. Just get yourself an interesting topic, a great mic, and Helena Bonham Carter to do voicework for you!
@TimHarford
Tim Harford
4 years
The remarkable story of how Florence Nightingale and her fellow geeks declared war on death - armed with a souped-up pie chart. #CautionaryTalesPod Helena Bonham Carter plays Nightingale and she's AMAZING.
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Cade Massey
6 years
Maybe should retweet this annually.
@bcmassey
Cade Massey
12 years
In the very uncertain NFL draft, here's a certainty: the top 6 *prospects* will not be the top 6 *players*. http://t.co/kjrUHih6
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Cade Massey
2 years
This is extraordinary. Some of the most inspected/measured/evaluated people in the world turn the tables. You want rankings, we'll give you some rankings! Buckle up, owners.
@TomPelissero
Tom Pelissero
2 years
The NFLPA is releasing its first ever team report cards based on surveying roughly 1,300 players. Ranking No. 1 overall in football facilities, staff and overall treatment of players: the #Vikings , followed by the #Dolphins at 2 and #Raiders at 3.
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Cade Massey
2 years
Just released data for the 10th Annual Student Case Competition, part of our People Analytics conference. This one on the hiring funnel at Teach for America. Great data, great questions. And $25k in prize money. Please pass along to your students!
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