Lots of analytical draft analysis comes with a lot of uncertainty due to small sample sizes and the league changing over time.
Hence I thought of a method to compute the value of draft picks intrinsically. Here it is:
When Taylor Heinicke's career is over, he can just start a yearly column in which he predicts which QBs get benched in the coming season. Because he predicts it correctly every single offseason
If you think about it Eli Manning was worse at every single on-field trait, but he was a better QB than Justin Herbert because he refused to play for the Chargers.
Justin Fields has
- fewer rush TDs than Jamaal Williams
- lower yds per attempt than Zach Wilson
- fewer pass TDs than Jared Goff
- lower passer rating than Andy Dalton
(sorry I'm legally obliged to play this game whenever I see it)
Justin Fields has:
▪︎ More rush TD than Christian McCaffrey
▪︎ More rush yds than Dalvin Cook
▪︎ As many pass TD as Tom Brady
▪︎ Higher pass rating than Dak Prescott
Redefining DUAL-THREAT
#DaBears
If the Bears choose between Caleb Williams and Drake Maye..
Williams: Concerns are in-pocket/in structure. Exactly what Fields struggles with in the NFL. Bears might get PTSD.
Maye: No concerns, but North Carolina. Exactly where Mitch Trubisky played. Bears might get PTSD.
The Jags drafted Trevor Lawrence without needing to trade up, then got another first overall pick the year after, still have Trevor on a rookie contract and feel completely average and irrelevant going into next season.
We need a study on how they botched this.
2018: Gurley is the one unique RB who changes the complexion of the game
August: Zeke is the one unique RB who changes the complexion of the game
September/October: McCaffrey is the one unique RB who changes the complexion of the game
December/Janaury: Derrick Henry is the...
Burrow also played a really really good game overall, I think, but man, when Mahomes is making plays on one ankle to Marcus Kemp while Burrow is throwing to Chase & Higgins, it just hits different.
QB1, always has been.
I don't want to be too dramatic and heroize Mahomes too much, but beyond this it can be noted that he received snaps to his feet all night and in a do-or-die drive his other receiver ran 10 yards backwards to set up 2nd&13 instead of 2nd&short. Unreal.
After being drafted to the New England Patriots dynasty and then being traded to Kyle Shanahan, I'd sure wish for him that he finally gets into a winning situation
Quarterbacks went off the board at No. 8, No. 10 and No. 12.
The NFL is overdoing it with QBs in the first round, why don't they use this exact range of picks to select one of these safe blue chip prospects who will transform your franchise to the better
🚨3x Catholic Super Bowl Champ Harrison Butker SLAMS BIDEN on FULL-BLAST during Commencement speech:
"Our own nation is led by a man who proudly proclaims his Catholic faith, but at the same time is delusional enough to make the Sign of The Cross during a pro-abortion rally...
I'm not sure what to make of the fact the 49ers chose the much worse quarterback in 2005 and yet they've made it to the Super Bowl more often than the Packers since then.
Having an elite QB *can* be bad when it masks organisational deficiencies, because you never bottom out.
Patrick Mahomes will throw to a 34 year old tight end and a few unproven or proven mediocre receivers next season and is favored to win the Super Bowl after losing his long time offensive coordinator.
Let that sink in.
.
@danorlovsky7
says Joe Burrow is the “best quarterback in football” 👀
“Patrick Mahomes, best player. He’s the most talented player in the NFL and he’s the most dynamic weapon. Joe Burrow’s the best quarterback in football when it comes to quarterbacking.”
If you think about it the Panthers could have had Lamar for two first-round picks and opted to take Bryce Young for two first round picks, two second-round picks and DJ Moore
Brady's last two drives were touchdowns to tie a game, including a 55 yard bomb to Mike Evans over the best corner in the league. Dude is 44 and leaves the game on top. Unreal career.
The AFC has three types of QBs.
Those who have all-world weapons: Tua, Stroud, Burrow
Those who don't have all-world weapons: Herbert, Lamar, Allen, Trevor
Those who win the Super Bowl: Mahomes
Mitch Trubisky got drafted in 2017, sat behind Glennon for a few games, was benched in 2020, didn't play at all in 2021 and has 200 more career dropbacks than Jimmy Garoppolo who was drafted in 2014 and had two deep playoff runs.
It's insane how little Jimmy G has played still.
How Tom Brady adapted to Arians' downfield offense without losing his ability to get rid of the ball quickly is one the most impressive things we've seen from a QB, let alone a 43-year old QB, I think.
People will get super mad at that tweet, but my honest takeaway from week 1 is that Patrick Mahomes is probably further away from the rest of the league in terms of quarterbacking than we already thought to begin with.
I still can't believe the Saints tried the "pair an aging HoF QB with one of the best rosters in the league" approach four times straight and failed each time just to see the division rival Bucs do exactly the same and succeed in the first year
Most valuable non-QBs during first 4 years in the NFL per PFF WAR, since 2006:
1) Michael Thomas
2) Darrelle Revis
3) Richard Sherman
4) Mike Evans
5) Tyreek Hill
Chris Godwin and Jamal Adams both can surpass Hill in 2019 (both need roughly 80-90% of their best year in 2020)
The Bengals just got
- a touchdown on 4th down
- a 2pt conversion
- a successful onside kick
- a 29 yard touchdown with the game clock hitting zeros
- a 2pt conversion
Imagine this happening in a meaningful game. Everything would explode.
Sauce Gardner covered Gabriel Davis and Stefon Diggs for a combined 25 snaps and gave up one target for six yards, no first down.
If he doesn't win DROY because of "only" two interceptions, we riot. When Stefon Diggs earns zero targets against you, you can't catch INTs.
PFF passing grade on incompletions or interceptions over the last three weeks:
Justin Herbert 71.7
Dak Prescott 58.9
Josh Allen 46.9
Kenny Pickett 46.2
Everyone else below 45.
Herbert hat 10 dropped passes beyond the sticks over this timeframe. Dak ranks second with 5.
The problematic racial sterotypes for QBs aside, why does the media spend time on "Dak vs Purdy"?
Dak v Purdy ain't a competition. Dak is unquestionably better at every aspect of QB play.
Why not talk about how Shanahan and the skill players make this offense unique and good?
The Cowboys had a point differential of +125 in the regular season.
During the season, the 49ers faced the
- Chiefs (+127)
- Seahawks (+6)
- every other opponent finished the season with negative point differential
I feel like the fact that this was thrown teaches us a lesson about whether every in-breaking target should be called anticipation (which happened way too often this season)
Teams who started a backup QB in 3+ games in 2023:
Browns
Steelers
Bengals
Colts
Raiders
Vikings
Jets
Bears
Falcons
Titans
Giants
Cardinals
Patriots
Chargers
The only team to not win a single game? The Chargers. They went 0-4, losing against three other backup QBs.
I wonder if Lamar were considered a better thrower coming out if playing with a top 10 pick and another first-round pick at WR in year 5 of college.
oh wait...in year 5 of college Lamar was the unanimous NFL MVP
Finding consensus on a Jayden Daniels comparison is difficult. But NFL evaluators don't agree with the Lamar Jackson comps.
"Better thrower than Lamar was coming out and it's not close," per an AFC exec.
Shades of RG3 as far as running style.
Most PFF WAR accumulated by non-QBs in a season, 2006-2021
2021 Rams 7.5
2012 49ers 6.8
2017 Eagles 6.4
2008 Ravens 6.3
To be successful with the "trade for a vet QB who isn't elite" route, you "only" need to have the best supporting cast of the last 15 years by a good margin.
If they don't want to spend a ton of draft capital to trade for a starting QB, the Bucs are back to 2015: Their two best options on the free agent market are Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota
Reading the post first against MOFO seems like the right thing and when Allen sees
#27
's hips, he knows the post is gonna be wide open. Good read, imho.
Chris Jones bullrushing the LT directly into Allen probably saved the season for the Chiefs right there. Game of inches.
Statistically, Patrick Mahomes' game against the 49ers was the most efficient QB game (EPA/play) against a
#1
ranked defense (EPA/play) of the last ten years (looking at
#1
defenses after week 3) and it's not close.
It's easy to talk down the opponents after the fact, but the Chiefs beat the three best regular season teams in the AFC to make the Super Bowl, two of them on the road.
That is simply very impressive and extremely rare.
Darnell Wright was the only rookie offensive linemen in 2023 who
- played at least 100 snaps
- had a 60+ run blocking and a 60+ pass blocking grade.
Good rookie years from offensive lineman are typically rare, but 2023 was extreme
rule of thumb: When you're almost at the point where Fahrenheit and Celsius meet, it's not "football weather" anymore, it's probably just dangerous to everyone involved, including the fans.
The windchill is expected to be -30 degrees at Arrowhead Stadium Saturday night.
If the expected windchill holds, only 2 other games in NFL history would have had a colder windchill 🥶❄️
#Chargers
-
#Bengals
1982, -59WC
#Cowboys
-
#Packers
1967, -48WC
INSANE
#MIAvsKC
#FinsUp
Before this tweet gets too much traction and people call me a Fields hater: This tweet is actually not really about Justin Fields. It's about the weird "look through the different stats and for each find the best name that is below player X" game.
The MVP of the regular season should have either been
Tom Brady - He has the best combination of volume, team success and quarterback play
or
Justin Herbert - but nobody is ready for this conversation.
QBs who were in the discussion of being better than Mahomes since he took over:
Brees
Russell
Lamar
Watson
Brady
Allen
Rodgers
Herbert
Stafford
Burrow
Tua
If we discuss whether a QB is
#1
against more than 10 different QBs through 5 years, said QB is simply
#1
in a landslide.
It's funny how this tweet is actually:
Bills paid Diggs less than $20M per year, got a lot of good, even elite, play out of him and were able to elevate their fringe playoff team status to being an perennial Super Bowl contender.
They invested the 22nd overall pick and will get
the Stefon Diggs saga in Buffalo
in 2020 the Bills traded for Diggs
they gave up a 1st, 4th, 5th & 6th
they paid him as the
#6
most expensive WR in the NFL at the time
in 2022 they signed him to an even larger $96,000,000 deal
all told, from 2020-2023 the Bills paid him
I've just now realized that the 2018 & 2019 Bears didn't only resemble the 2017 & 2018 Jaguars, they are keeping the similarity in 2020 by acquiring Nick Foles to get them out of regression valley.
Does this ultimately mean Nick Foles plays for the Bills in 2021?
Better move Brock Purdy right near/at the top of the MVP favorites list….if you have not already, or if he wasn’t before this game. Don’t argue with me…argue with the stats.
And the tape.
It’s justified.