The job of a portfolio manager is to recognize change, overweight areas of market leadership and stay as long as it persists. The revaluation of commodities is an important shift that is likely to attract incremental capital flows for a long time.
#commodities
#energy
#metals
Oil has room to move...with debt paid down and boards focusing producer CEOs on retuning capital to shareholders, total returns by way of appreciation and dividend increases should attract a growing cohort of income investors. Pension funds have largely exited energy but private
Find the secular bull markets and focus on the highest quality assets. Rising earnings, rising multiple and rising dividend...a triple threat.
$CNQ has long life assets, and has just broken out with measurements much higher. Return of capital to shareholders should motivate
$CNQ is clearly on its way...
Over the next five years, earning likely double, dividend likely doubles and multiple likely doubles...what might that mean?
#OTT
#energy
These kind of price patterns over 12 years in the making do not come along very often. This cash generating machine has paid down debt, dividend will rise and likely multiple will expand as the under ownership in energy begins to normalize.
$CNQ
#energy
🚨Universal Basic Income doesn’t just drive massive inflation and make people lazy, it especially makes people dependent on the government.
And once you’re dependent on someone, they have control over you and can demand things from you.
There’s no such thing as a free lunch.
Well...a pretty compelling earnings report and very long technical setup makes it likely $CNQ is ready to run.
100% of free cashflow to be returned to shareholders as debt pay-down has hit targets early.
#energy
A strong couple of months for
#Commodities
however, when you pull the lens back, we are likely just starting wave 2 of a much longer process. Another key point in a case for reflation.
If we cant beat inflation, we may as well be positioned to benefit. $COPX $XME $XOP $DBA
After breaking above bearish resistance dating back to the $124 high, yesterday $WTI had a spread triple top breakout signalling the next leg higher.
#Oil
continues to look strong despite risk that recession weakening demand. Can
#energy
buck the tightening financial conditions?
This week I recorded our webcast this morning for posting today, in lieu of our live zoom. When your special person has a birthday, the early evening is hers ;-)
When $RIO Tinto broke from its consolidation range in 2003, what came next was pretty astonishing.
China re-opening and US on-shoring could be important catalysts.
Almost afraid to say it...
This is a very interesting weekly bar on the long term gold chart.
Many will expect Lucy to pull the football but it appears gold may be ready for a move higher with almost no one on board.
#GOLD
$GDX $GDXJ
#Silver
$PHYS
#preciousmetals
In the time it takes for these to grow, there is a lot of sunshine, some rain and a few storms…
Try not to focus on the bad days. You can’t have one without the others.
☀️☔️⛈️🌈
Enjoy your weekend.
For me, some outdoor time with my family and a few hundred charts😁
For those who believe that the strength in
#energy
is temporary or overdone, do not lose sight of the bigger picture.
Regime change doesn't happen often and be costly to miss... $XLE relative to $RSP (Equal Weight S&P500)
Trudeau’s creepy decision to force podcasts to register with his government is his latest attempt at censorship.
I will repeal censorship & bring home free speech:
Imperial Oil - A 3.5%
#dividend
growing over 20% looks pretty good, but what might total return be if we have entered a long term bull for energy? The last one wasn't so bad;-)
$IMO $CNQ $SU $XEG $XOP
Who is overweight? At the end of June, portfolio manager's
#commodity
exposure was at multi-year lows.
My guess is that flows are reversing and dips will be bought. Commodity producers have been paying down debt and are committed to returning capital to shareholders...could be
With an hour to go it is looking like a clean breakout for
#copper
miners ETF ( $COPX) on the long monthly chart
A solid initiating candle out of the recent consolidation bodes well for this sub group.
The remarkable resilience in commodities on a day marked by complete liquidation of risky assets highlights how early we are likely in the cycle for hard assets.
One by one commodities have broken out of consolidation pennant patterns. $TECK.B is just breaking out. History suggests that breaking from a VERY long base can lead to VERY long advances....see $CCO recently. Dividend growth could be substantial for income investors looking for
Ready, fire, aim is not a sound investment strategy.
This government is WAY too cavalier with OUR money. Sounds as though it may be the most poorly governed concept stock in Canada.
Watch Chrystia Freeland get busted for skimming $2 Billion of tax payers money to invest in a company that doesn't even exist. One can only speculate which of her friends the funds were for?
Thankfully this Senator very clearly demonstrates how BS doesn't always baffle brains.
Boom!🎤Tech giant Amazon goes
#Nuclear
⚛️⚡️🔌💻 with $650M acquisition of Talen Energy's 960MW Nuclear-powered Data Center in
#Pennsylvania
that gets safe, 24/7 reliable
#CarbonFree
#electricity
from the 2.5GW Susquehanna nuclear power plant🌞🤠🐂
#Uranium
Crude Oil breaking out of wedge consolidation completing the correction from $124...sets up the next leg higher? Wedge patterns often result in sharp moves in the direction of resolution.
#energy
#energytwitter
$USO $BNO $DBO
Looking like a solid break-out on the monthly close for $CNQ.
Long reserve life with outsized return of capital to shareholders over the next several years through a growing dividend and share buy backs whether oil rallies or not.
#dividends
#reflation
Could be an excellent entry level for those who missed the initial break higher in
#energy
$XLE $XOP $XEG $XES $FENY $IXC
Rising and persistent relative strength vs. $SPY
With
#CrudeOil
trading above the 8 day, the 21 day and 50 day MA and confirming the trend break above the consolidation from $124, it looks like it is ready to challenge the rising 200 day moving average. As the US election nears, the rhetoric and sales from the SPR could abate.
The energy sector continues to be under-owned and inexpensive. My guess is that the sector will grow as a percent of the $SPY over the next 5 years. $XLE
Meanwhile:
The implied demand for oil just surged to all-time highs.
It was the largest weekly increase in 26 years.
It is worth noting that US oil production remains ~7% below pre-pandemic levels with total operating rigs starting to contract for the first time in 3 years.
🚨🚨 IMPORTANT
-------
US crude oil inventories FALL by 3rd LARGEST EVER back to 1982
Down 14 MILLION barrels over previous week
1.4m barrels from SPR - that matters, demand is demand, don't let EIA and charlatans fool you otherwise
🫡 OIL DEMAND IS NOT WEAK
Well...a pretty compelling earnings report and very long technical setup makes it likely $CNQ is ready to run.
100% of free cashflow to be returned to shareholders as debt pay-down has hit targets early.
#energy
The Energy sector represents over 12% of S&P 500 earnings but only about 4% of S&P 500 market cap, the widest gap since 2009. The last time Energy's earnings weight was above 12% was in 2013. Back then, the sector made up over 10% of the index's market cap.
@NDR_Research
I enjoyed an hour of lively discussion with
@paulbagnellBNN
on
@BNNBloomberg
's
@marketcall
. We discussed major market themes, our current portfolio positioning answered viewer questions on large cap stocks and shared three timely picks.
I would put this one in the must own camp...
To my eye this looks like it is embarking on a pretty solid long term uptrend. Cashflows and shareholder returns are likely to be revalued higher over the next number of years and this one could be a beast.
$IMO
#energy
At the end of last week, 4 for 4 short term breadth indicators have reversed up suggesting at least a near term tactical rally.
% of NYSE issues >50 day MA
% of NYSE issues >150 Day MA
% of NYSE issues with positive weekly momentum
% of NYSE issues making new highs v new lows
The technical significance of the gold candlestick chart breaking out of a 12 year long cup and handle pattern is extremely significant. This is an exceptionally long-term bullish formation that suggests a strong potential for the price of gold to continue to move higher. The
At the risk of being repetitive - Commodities now outperforming both fixed income and equities.
Positioning is light and sentiment weak...
When something isn't acting the way the crowd expects, it is usually worth paying attention.
$XOP $DBC $USCI $DBB $XME $PICK $GUNR
Japanese yen carry trade unwind driven by a surprise rate hike in Japan, combined with crowded positioning in mega cap growth will likely require both time and price to run its course before these can have a meaningful advance.
Everything is for sale today but defensive and less
Cameco continues to move up out of a 15 year base.
#Uranium
market is likely to remain tight given the geo-political tensions and global move toward nuclear power as one of the only solutions for base load supply.
$CCJ $CCO
Had a great 6 minute discussion with
@JonErlichman
on
@BNNBloomberg
this morning on the latest outlook for markets and how investors could avoid risks posed by current consensus defensive positioning. $SPY
#equities
#investments
Another big cap, cash generating resource producer moving up and away as investors focus their attention on securing a rising stream of cashflow to offset a rising cost of living.
In a world where inflation is sticky, this theme will be with us for a long time.
#dividend
#Gold
looks set to exit the week at a new all-time high.
If technicals and history are any indication, this may be just the beginning. A global liquidity cycle could light a fire here.
$PHYS $GLD
When persistent pressure comes off a group like commodities today and a leading stock breaks out on day 1, it is worth paying attention $CCO $CCJ
#Uranium
#commodities
Energy on the cusp of re-accelerating vs. $SPX?
Most often charts break out of triangle pennants in the same direction they came in. Improving breadth is supportive.
$XLE $XOP $XES $IYJ $XEG
There is no bear market in history that took place while breadth was expanding. What a change over the week🔥🔥
Breadth in both the short term indicators and the longer term bullish% readings have improved dramatically.
Bullish% tracks the percent of issues trading on a point
Fed tightening is done.
Goldman is looking for 21% upside to
#commodity
prices over the next 12 months. If so, producers print cashflow.
If this didn't break down through the tightening, which way is this going to go next?
$XME $PICK
With the Dow Jones Total US Completion Index (all stocks NOT in the $SPY) and the Valueline Arithmetic Index (1800 unweighted US total stock composite) +6.2% YTD both hitting new highs it is hard to suggest US Equities are only driven by FANG or that they are weak.
While the S&P 500 remains inside the Feb 2018 consolidation box, many market leaders have broken out and pushed to new highs. Hard to argue this is a bad sign for the general market.
Dividend growth investing is one of the only free lunches available.
Not only has the dividend growth cohort outperformed other cohorts including the index and high dividend payors, but it comes with less volatility.
#equities
$SPY $TSX
@edrempel
#ValueInvesting
is on the rise! 📈 After years of large growth stocks dominating the market, we're seeing a shift towards value-oriented stocks. It's time to join the movement and reap the long-term rewards. 🤩
#Investment
#StockMarket
#StockPicks
And we are off...weaker dollar and yields take the pressure off a market where investors and quants are now under-positioned and have been overly bearish.
Solid improvement to equity market breadth readings came through yesterday along with a follow thru day on big volume.
#Brent
and $WTI (+6% on the week) crude looking very supportive coming into September -
#energy
complex to continue relative strength leadership into the fall.
$XOP $XLE $XEG $XES $IYE $BNO $DBO $OIL
Energy continues to set up. It is unlikely that it will be held at a 5% weight in the $SPY.
When it is cheaper to drill on Wall St. than in Texas or Alberta, investors should expect further catalysts. $XOP $XLE $XEG
#energy
If 2020 was a generational low for interest rates, what will serve investors well as a source of returns going forward?
A thread on dividend growth during secular rising rate cycles
Now that monthly chart is going to make some folks sit up and take notice...
What is it they say about history rhyming?
#GOLD
$PHYS $PSLV $GDX $GDXJ $XGD
Both Oil and Gas Exploration $XOP and Oil and gas Services $XES ETFs breaking out of recent range today. Energy breadth models turned higher last week. Another sector with improving relative strength vs. SPX
Bear markets rarely follow 10 day runs where NYSE advance/decline ratios are greater than 2:1
The market is like machine driven by 1000 moving parts. Sometimes a combination of small factors can overwhelm the big obvious ones that investors are focusing on. Thanks
@RyanDetrick
The market has been signaling what Goldman Sachs is suggesting today...there is upside in
#materials
pricing going forward and many underweight.
$SCCO another large cap
#copper
producer breaking higher. These are very large bases, suggesting significantly higher share prices
Join me on
@BNNBloomberg
's
@marketcall
at 12pm EST today, where we be updating our current macro views, talking portfolio positioning, and taking questions from viewers on large-cap equities and ETFs.
Another indication of a secular regime change - first monthly close where
#GOLD
now outperforming $QQQ. Last time this happened was 2000... $GLD outperformed for a LONG time
Absolutely nothing wrong with seeing the Equal Weight S&P500 ( $RSP ) on the relative strength new high list...
The equal weight index has underperformed by a record amount over the past two years. The equal weight has beaten the market cap weighted index in more years than
Things that make you say hmmmm…
We end the week with a very interesting clue as to what is coming.
A broadening market is a healthy market.
Equal weight vs. Market Cap Weighted S&P500. $RSP $SPY
$DXY important to watch here. In a downtrend... broke support and the 50 day moving average. What was support now becomes resistance. So far rejected at the declining 50 day. Weaker dollar = risk on.
Declining $USD favourable for
#materials
,
#Global
#stocks
and
#Energy
I had the opportunity to speak to
@AndrewBellBNN
on
@BNNBloomberg
's 'The Close' yesterday. We discussed the narrowing breadth in the stock market and how we are managing in portfolios.
A great chat with
@JonErlichman
today on
@BNNBloomberg
. A quick talk about $bns and banks off the top followed by a macro markets discussion about important structural changes evident in markets and what it means for investors.
A BIG bounce in assets negatively correlated to a weak dollar suggests rejection at resistance is meaningful and that $USD is likely to continue lower. Many equities and ETFs in related groups immediately made relative strength new highs.
I had a chance to play with these future champs in the Squash Ontario Mixed Doubles this weekend.
Barometer was happy to be a lead sponsor of this great event.
@SquashOntario
After a pause to refresh during April, both short and long term breadth models have one by one turned back higher...today World Bullish% will be the last to turn green.
This is NOT sell in May and go away.
I was asked this week if we were still bullish $TECK Resources given the recent pullback in
#metals
and
#copper
. If this was enough to shake us out, we should never own a cyclical.
$COPX (Copper producers
#ETF
) is down 20% from its recent high and $TECK.B down 9%. This is the
This past weeks market rotation cannot be ignored. History has shown this type of action only a handfull of times and the message to investors is clear. Watch this weeks webcast where we decoded the message and discussed opportunities to benefit.
Yes, bonds have probably made a turn for the better.
As a yield seeker, I would still prefer a 5%
#dividend
growing over 20% in an inflation protected asset.
Don't focus on broken assets getting fixed but instead, own good assets getting better.
Immediate new highs are the
A monthly close up here would be meaningful.
Potential cup with handle resolution. Lets see how it settles out but
#gold
equities have begun outperforming the metal itself.
$DXY failing from below the moving averages...
Is very positive for
#global
#stocks
,
#commodities
, and risk assets in general.
Breadth of advancing assets continues to improve overall despite recent weakness in
#megacaps
.
Will be interesting to see the markets reaction to
Barometer continued to take
#technology
lower last week as breadth has been contracting over the past several weeks.
Also almost non-existent are
#Bonds
and long duration assets such as
#REITs
and
#Utilities
, where higher bond yields pose a problem.
Long Financials,