🗣 Oliver Parsons ➡️ CA since ‘09 • ex-JPM ♦️ Mike Rothman ➡️ 40 yrs oil research + 38 yrs OPEC • ex-ISI energy head • ex-Merril Lynch energy head•
#1
ranked II
****
We’ve told clients that OECD oil inventories last month fell 5x more than normal March rate
15 mins ago, EIA data indicated US crude inventories dropped 6.2 million bbls last week
Inventories keep falling. Global demand remains strong. Stay focused on the damn data.
🫡
🚨🚨 IMPORTANT
-------
US crude oil inventories FALL by 3rd LARGEST EVER back to 1982
Down 14 MILLION barrels over previous week
1.4m barrels from SPR - that matters, demand is demand, don't let EIA and charlatans fool you otherwise
🫡 OIL DEMAND IS NOT WEAK
___________
Can we now say we told ya so…?
Nearly 1 MM bbl/day UPWARD REVISION for US oil demand in May, highest EVER for May
Absolutely everyone has been underestimating global oil demand
Maybe stop listening to the IEA, EIA and media’s talking heads
😎😎😎
OIL MARKET: Massive revision to US oil demand and supply data.
@EIAgov
pegs US total demand at 20.776m b/d in May using monthly data (up 973,000 b/d from 19.803m b/d using weekly data).
Seasonally, total US oil demand in May 2023 was the highest ever for a May month |
#OOTT
——
Notice a pattern?
Ford just stopped construction on $3.5 billion battery plant
It’s not “confident about competitively running the plant”
Despite receiving tax payer subsidies of $1 billion + $250 million property tax waived
The Great Green Fraud
A massive Ponzi scheme
———
The Great Green Fraud tides are turning
Alberta’s Premier Danielle Smith:
“The ludicrous IEA projections … turned from being an entity that does predictions to one that engages in political advocacy ”
@ABDanielleSmith
thank you 🫡
Now do the IEA’s Missing Oil fraud 😉
————
Ahh, Toronto’s World is Ending Let’s March to Stop Fossil Fuels
A bunch of privileged white women
Who depend on fossil fuels for absolutely everything
Who don’t care to understand energy poverty kills millions of people each year
Virtue signaling’s finest hypocrisy 🫠
~~
And any1 else highlight the HUGE downward oil inventory revisions IEA very sneakily made 2 weeks ago?
Jan, Feb, Mar inventories ALL revised much lower, means demand MUCH higher
Why does IEA always hide bullish revisions?
Bc it doesn’t fit their bearish narrative
🫡
Many shouting global oil demand weak without data supporting the hype
Mar demand was a record. Apr softened but way above ‘22. May resuming higher
China, India & EM hitting records + US above 2019
Q1 inventories seasonally build. They didnt
Physical balances are tight
🫡
🤡🤡
CLOWN AWARD OF THE WEEK
👉 Criticize oil companies for upholding shareholder value (a fiduciary responsibility) while your husband gets pulled over for drunk driving (your new Porsche) after leaving your zillion dollar Napa winery (that you use for tax write-offs)
🤡🤡
After earning record profits, Big Oil companies are openly bragging that they prioritize stock buybacks for investors instead of lower prices at the pump. This is unacceptable for families struggling to pay higher gas prices & Democrats are working to end egregious price gouging.
~~
🔥
Many asserting global oil demand has collapsed. WE DISAGREE
👉 Sept hit record high for month, past 5 months all ABOVE pre-Covid 2019 rate
👉 Global oil inventories DREW during Sept (still despite SPR!) making 7/9 months this year
🤷🏻♂️ Doesn’t sounds like a collapse to me
******
March global oil demand hit the SECOND HIGHEST rate EVER, only surpassed Oct 2019
Bloomberg, got data confirming your “weaker-than-expected demand picture” ?
Our oil demand estimate has been the most constructive out there… but we’re even too low
👇
——
@ericnuttall
👇 I saved this chart from Ed’s extremely bearish report dated 6/28/22
His forecast = 20m b/d US crude production within the year with crude at $90
The US is still struggling to break 13m b/d
His demand forecast was just as baffling
Data integrity matters 🫡
Sadly, Ed Morse cancelled on our oil bull vs. oil bear debate this morning, but my weekend of debate prep was not for naught. Join me at 11:05am ET on
@BNNBloomberg
where I will dissect Ed's ultra bearish thesis and explain why we see continued oil inventory draws ahead.
——
Global food shortages, starvation & runaway inflation
Yet EU / Belgium are trying to eliminate thousands of farms to curb CO2
Belgium farmers are protesting en masse yet Mainstream Media refuses to cover
The Great Green Fraud
Are you starting to understand?
👇👇
EIA, via the FT: Global petroleum consumption will reach 102.2mn bpd in 2024, largely driven by growth in non-OECD countries such as China and India. Greater oil production in the US and non-Opec countries like Canada and Brazil will help keep a lid on prices.
________
Who comes up with this BS?
The press has force fed us this phony story for over 4 years
The FT doesn’t know the first thing about OPEC policy
🤡🤡
Excerpt from today’s report:
Large paper market for oil means freq episodes of “tail wagging the dog”. In 2011 crude sank ~$40 bc Spain debt default fears. Many wrote oil prices weak bc weak oil demand, this was totally false. What was weak was instead “financial demand” for oil
________
And global oil demand jumped ~3 million b/d during July Y/Y
Oil demand clearly hasn’t collapsed, and historically it continues ramping into year-end
Don’t believe the media’s bearish hype
👇👇
_____
Who wants to let them know US production is coming in ~600,000 b/d under consensus forecasts …. massively missing for the 4th year in a row.
From Monday’s report
👇👇
BREAKING: US crude oil production has officially hit a record 13.4 million barrels per day.
Daily oil production has increased by 22% over the last 4 years.
Since 2008, production has skyrocketed 350% from ~3.8 million barrels per day.
The US is now the world’s largest oil
———
Tons of oil/energy bears out there…
But energy stocks (XLE) are almost back to all-time highs
While crude (WTI) is down $40/b from June high
Soo, what’ll happen to energy stocks when oil prices rally?
Just sayin’ … 😉
__________
The ol’ pot calling the kettle black 🤡
Point the finger at oil but ignore the big tech & vaccine cartel
In 2022, these 3 companies alone made over $200 billion in profit
Apple $100 billion
Microsoft $70 billion
Pfizer $31 billion
Oil companies brought in $200 billion in profit last year. Yet the prices at the pump and on our utility bills remain high.
“That, ladies and gentleman, is what we call the oil cartel.”
OIL MARKET:
@EIAgov
sharply revises upward its May estimate for US oil demand.
Using new monthly data, it pegs May at 20.80 m b/d, a massive ~810,000 b/d higher than the old estimate using weekly data of 19.99m b/d.
The 20.8m b/d is the highest ever seasonally for May.
#OOTT
~~~~~
💥💥
A call we started making in 2019 … shale output always came down to the massive decline rates, it came down to geology. Shale was never the long-term solution to supply growth
___________
Never underestimate the stupidity of some people
Anti-oil protester glues himself to road not knowing that glue and road are both made from oil
🤡 🤡 🤡
___________
Siemens Energy getting a massive multi-billion dollar bailout from the German government
Sorry but wind power is not the future, that’s reality
The Great Green Fraud showing its true colors once again
Are you starting to understand?
UPDATE: They are getting a bailout
Siemens Energy secures provisional deal for guarantees
The German government, Siemens AG and other parties involved in talks to cover billions of euros in project-related guarantees for Siemens Energy, have agreed a deal in principle, three
“Does the U.S. or the world have the inventories and the spare capacity to make up for any disruption?”
@SullyCNBC
asks as the Israel-Hamas war sparks oil supply concerns.
“No,” says
@CornerstoneOil
President Mike Rothman. “Oil supply is very, very tight.”
———
In just over 2 decades, global electricity consumption has almost doubled
No matter how much taxpayer money is thrown at wind and solar, they’re not a sustainable reality
👇
In 2022 the world consumed 29,165 TWh of electricity, an increase of 13,601 TWh since 2000 or a ~87% jump. 50% of the electricity demand is from the Asia Pacific region who has seen their demand increase by 239% over that timeframe.
@Alex77889991
The IEA publishes absolutely horrible fraudulent data. Since 2014 we called them out on knowingly publishing way too-low global demand data, which amounted to over 2 billion barrels by early 2022. And their BS is still going on 👇👇
SHOTS FIRED!!
OPEC response to IEA recent comments published on 12 September 2023, asserting that fossil fuel demand would peak before 2030 (we literally just talked about this yesterday on the Wednesday spaces with
@CornerstoneOil
) >>>
On the International Energy Agency’s
@sohaibab9
@PSworldwide13
Jan + Feb saw inventory builds - that’s seasonally normal, not oil demand dying
March inventories are nosediving
We’re bullish on the oil balances, and data is coming in even more constructive than our forecast
🫡🫡
——————
🥲🥲🥲
Ahh right on cue. Didn’t need a crystal ball for this one.
You hate oil and try to kill the industry.
You violently demand green energy and you now scream about the cost.
Hmm… perhaps you reap what you sow?
🤮🤮🤮
• World oil demand will climb by 2 mb/d in 2023 to a record 101.9 mb/d. Reflecting the widening disparity between regions, non-OECD countries, buoyed by a resurgent China, will account for 90% of growth.
IEA
#OOTT
*******
While everyone (again) is splitting hairs about US + EU oil demand, the EMs continue to roar.
Hello India 🫡
INDIA’S MARCH FUEL DEMAND SOARS ON ROBUST ECONOMIC ACTIVITY:
⚡️ ⚡️ ⚡️
The Netherlands Energy Minister Rob Jetten:
IMMEDIATELY SUSPENDING LAW THAT LIMITS COAL-FIRED POWER PRODUCTION
ENERGY SECURITY AND DEPENDENCE ON RUSSIAN NATURAL GAS ARE A CONCERN
With reference to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article, dated 2 October 2024, titled "Saudi Oil Min Said Prices May Fall to $50/B if Others Cheat, Sources Say," the OPEC Secretariat categorically refutes the claims made within the story as wholly inaccurate and misleading.
The
———
(( sound on ))
Cobalt being mined in the Congo
The electric vehicle supply chain begins here
Are you starting to understand?
The Great Green Fraud
@siddharthkara
showing us the truth. Thank you brother 🫡 A must follow.
OIL MARKET: Washington eases its oil sanctions on Venezuela, allowing Chevron (for the next 6 months) to pump crude in the Latin American nation and export it into the United States. A major shift in the White House policy |
#OOTT
#Venezuela
$CVX 🇻🇪 ⛽️ 🇺🇸
~~
🔥
Many asserting global oil demand has collapsed. WE DISAGREE
👉 Sept hit record high for month, past 5 months all ABOVE pre-Covid 2019 rate
👉 Global oil inventories DREW during Sept (still despite SPR!) making 7/9 months this year
🤷🏻♂️ Doesn’t sounds like a collapse to me
———
Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world
It was one of the world’s wealthiest countries
Now 60% of the country lives in poverty
Is socialism & big government really here to help you?
When I lived in Venezuela, in the 1980’s-90’s, I vividly recall my father telling his friends and neighbors that socialism was coming to Venezuela, and their response, “what happened in Cuba can’t happen here! We have too much petroleum & freedom”
It did happen - and worse. /2
The IEA (therefore consensus & media) has now underestimated global oil demand for 28 months in a row.
The IEA also (v sneakily) admitted in Feb ‘22 to understating global oil demand by 1.9 billion bbl over the prior decade.
Macro trends matter 👇 EMs matter
Global energy consumption continued its upwards path after the impact of Covid. The Asia Pacific region represented the largest consumer of energy at 46% of the total. China was the single largest user of energy at 26% of global demand.
_
Every sentence here is incorrect
Cramer doesn’t know difference bw crude oil and total oil production
Russia isn’t flooding the mkt, they don’t have the structural capacity
And OPEC discipline is why inventories plunged ~800 MM barrels during 2 years starting July 2020
👇
In 1973 the U.S. produced 9.2 million barrels of oil a day. Now it is over 13 million barrels. Meanwhile Russia is flooding the world with oil and OPEC is a shadow of its former self. That could be the linchpin that explains how you could still have a bull market in September of
Hype & Noise 🤫
Many click-bait headlines hyping crude contango, conveniently forgetting it’s OpEx Friday. Seen this noise before, price drop amplified as contracts roll 2 next month. Paper flow, not change in fundamentals
MIKER model flashing huge discount to fair value 💪
Many shouting global oil demand weak without data supporting the hype
Mar demand was a record. Apr softened but way above ‘22. May resuming higher
China, India & EM hitting records + US above 2019
Q1 inventories seasonally build. They didnt
Physical balances are tight
🫡
******
March global oil demand hit the SECOND HIGHEST rate EVER, only surpassed Oct 2019
Bloomberg, got data confirming your “weaker-than-expected demand picture” ?
Our oil demand estimate has been the most constructive out there… but we’re even too low
👇
@mattyglesias
Been researching oil markets for 38 years - are you assuming Saudi can ramp production meaningfully? When the tide goes out, we see who’s swimming naked… and, well, it’s been a bit debauched underwater… therein lies the rub 😉
Global oil inventories have fallen by close to 660 million barrels since July 2020, a draw unparalleled in oil-market history. Current oil prices are actually below “fair value” based on where inventories currently sit.
END/
🚨
#BREAKING
EU BANS NEW COMBUSTION ENGINE SALES BY 2035
So, this right? U all yelling oil companies:
➡️find more oil BUT u windfall tax profits?
➡️build more refineries BUT u ban new engine sales in 12 yrs?
➕u witch-hunt CEOs BUT u beg they save us from a crisis?
thx 🤙
———
🤡🤡
US ENERGY POLICY
SPR barrels drained massively, hiking into Midterm elections ⤵️
Now 3 weeks later, Biden asks SPR to start buying barrels instead ⤵️
SPR Director: “It doesn't make sense for us to be releasing oil while trying to refill the SPR…”
Wut? Hello?
@trend_bullish
Bc everyone is being force fed bearish headlines instead of the actual data - they blindly believe the IEA and media’s fabricated rhetoric
The paper market drives price and sentiment, with almost no one understanding actual supply/demand data these days
Replay alert: Mike Rothman of
@CornerstoneOil
and I chat oil inventories, OPEC spare capacity exhaustion, US shale, financial vs. physical oil demand, the need for demand destruction via higher prices, and much more. Catch the 30 minute conversation here:
——
Weekly US snapshot from EIA:
> total oil inventories ⬇️
> oil demand ⬆️
> crude exports hit record high 📈
> US crude production no gain ❌
> still playing games w adj factor
Overall, not bearish to us…
Global oil demand climbed in December by 1.3 mb/d to a new record high, according to new data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI). Demand growth was driven primarily by gains in Japan, Indonesia, and Korea.
#OOTT
———
Many argue US oil demand is soft so it must be bearish oil prices
Meanwhile they ignore US oil demand is only 20% of global total
The remaining 80% rest of world? They’re demanding US barrels at a record rate
Don’t forget, it’s a global system 😉
👇
CHART OF THE DAY: US total petroleum exports (crude oil and refined products) last week surged to a new record high of ~12 million b/d. The US is the refinery of the world |
#OOTT
@WarrenPies
Perhaps traders now realizing oil balance squeeze here 2 stay. Russia conflict adds risk but IMO just used as scapegoat masking huge structural issue brewing for years. China lockdowns transient. SPR release fixes nothing. Bottom line remains - world quickly running outta oil…
Details:
1. 80% less acreage will be offered than originally nominated
2. Royalty rates will rise to 18.75% from 12.5%
3. Greenhouse emissions gas impacts with be met with higher scrutiny (more red tape and delays)
————
June 28, 2023 > Brent at $71/b
Our MIKER model said FV = $115/b
** Crude was over $40/b too low **
Ignore the hype, focus on the data
Understand REALITY vs the PERCEPTION OF REALITY - that’s where fortunes are made
🫡🫡
💥💥
———
⚡️ Global oil demand during 2Q ran 1.3m b/d ABOVE the IEA forecast.
⚡️ As we published this morning - despite recent oil price softness, don’t confuse “financial (paper) demand” with “physical demand”
➡️ Global oil demand is running ~3m b/d higher than June 2021
👇
Don’t be too quick to write commodities’ obit. Global
#oil
demand has been strong despite
#China
’s lockdown.
#Demand
is likely to strengthen as they re-open. (Chart: M. Rothman ���
@CornerstoneOil
)
———
❄️❄️
FREEZING COLD BLASTS UK
2 EMERGENCY COAL PLANTS DUE TO CLOSE THIS MONTH ARE TURNED BACK ON, WIND POWER GEN CURRENTLY LAGGING
Consequences of The Great Green Fraud
"I think the market was more focused on the forum and kind of missed the content of what they actually agreed to do," says
@CornerstoneOil
's Mike Rothman on oil prices falling despite several OPEC+ countries enacting new voluntary oil cuts.
OPEC meeting outcome? Changes nothing.
Final Sep production quota just moved fwd, split evenly July & Aug.
OPEC producing way under quota so Sep allocation not an issue anyway.
Massive supply shortage not solved.
And as told clients, OPEC/Russia WSJ article from Tues was BS.
The solar industry in Germany now reports that a jaw-dropping 15% of German solar capacity is rapidly disintegrating.
On one hand, this represents the decay & destruction of many billions of € of capital.
On the other hand it represents hardly any energy risk, because 10
Statement from OPEC titled International Energy Agency should be very careful about further undermining oil industry investments
The language of the statement was not devoid of rebuke and blame
@AzizSapphire
🫡
بيان إعلامي صادر من منظمة أوبك بعنوان ( على وكالة الطاقة الدولية الحذر من التمادي في تهميش أهمية تدفع الاستثمارات في صناعة الطاقة)
لغة البيان لم تخلوا من التوبيخ و الملامة
I am very saddened to share the news that my good friend
@sadbillackman
/
@MAlexMclennan
passed away last week.
I wish he could have felt the love for himself which so many others felt for him. I'm so grateful to have been his friend and will miss him forever.
Now that BlackRock owns half the world and helped throw us into a massive energy crisis, they’re waltzing out the back door. Cool thx BlackRock much love 🤙🤙
@HimelsonMartin
@DerAchsenZeit
@amlivemon
Are we though? IEA & consensus called for builds this q1 and q2 - they were wrong. They called for builds last year - wrong again. Inventories also drew last month. Whoever keeps saying large builds is wrong.
@DerAchsenZeit
@amlivemon
Not sure why all the fuss 😆 Every1 shouting about weak US gasoline demand - but of course overlooking Q2 oil demand being +1.3m b/d ABOVE consensus forecast. Again ignoring the gorilla in the room and just focusing on the flea - same reason they missed this 2 year bull run 🤷🏻♂️🤷🏻♂️
———
Today’s surprise OPEC cut?
OPEC has been managing the oil balances & thus oil prices since 2q20
Those who forget do so at their own peril 🫡
Let’s revisit our Aug 2021 piece in Arab News. It still holds true today.
👇
🚨 VIDEO REPLAY 🚨
——————————
Mike Rothman
BNN Bloomberg
2 Aug 2022
——————————
👍 Mike w some COLD HARD TRUTH
🔽 Global oil markets
✖️Tmrw’s OPEC meeting
✖️Supply/Demand
✖️Oil Burden
✖️Spare Capacity
✖️Biden Energy Policy
✖️Russia
———
Remember when
@SecGranholm
and
@PeteButtigieg
mocked everyone last year saying we should all just drive EVs to save on transportation costs?
Another failure
The Great Green Fraud
Are you starting to understand?
👇👇
————
👇 many people have convinced themselves the world will stop relying on oil
However there absolutely is no substitute. The math is simple.
ESG and the green agenda is not reality.
🫡
@CorneliaLake
Simple math below on impact of non-OECD countries industrializing on oil and electricity demand. The numbers are staggering. I miss speaking with
@CornerstoneOil
Mike Rothman who, aside from being a very generous and thoughtful guy with a ton of levity, would remind me that "if
🔥🔥🔥
—————
#COM
doing BIG things in the Twitterverse
💪💪💪
Hosting energy company CEOs …
Live …
To discuss earnings …
In Twitter Spaces …
FOR FREE …
@sohaibab9
rock on, brother 🤙
Based on your overwhelming feedback will be having
@Acesportsfan1
in attendance tomorrow after market close 2 discuss $PNE earnings with us. PineCliffe is a Canadian natural gas producer on track 2 being debt free soon.
👇👇👇👇
———
🐔 🐔
The ESG hype has been a total fraud, which we’ve been telling clients for well over 5-6 years
Now the chickens are coming home to roost
Are you starting to understand?
👇👇
$SIVB is in about 50 ESG and "sustainable" funds/ETFs, incl the big boys like BlackRock, Vanguard, JPM, Nuveen, but hardest hit is the Cromwell Sustainable Focus Fund (LIMAX) which has biggest allocation among all funds at 4.3%. Meanwhile its small weight in about 10 bank ETFs.
👇👇
———
🔥 From today 9/14 client report
“Aug oil demand over 102m b/d, highest since 4Q19 peak… price weakness past 9 wks not from oil balance softening… stockdraws continuing… weaker China demand raises concern about very tight balances when past soft patch…”
👇
Last week’s events will be remembered for many reasons but for us, the major market mover was the International Energy Agency’s admission that global oil demand is wickedly higher than what the agency was willing to admit previously…
2/x
@TradingTrotter
@JavierBlas
@EIAgov
How r we spoiled? Publishing data is IEA’s job & paid to do it. Why no accountability? They knowingly undercounted oil demand since 2014, which artificially deflated oil prices, hurt E&P / capex & ultimately abetted in today’s energy crisis. Their Feb ‘22 OMR admission was a joke