Alexander Berger @albrgr Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Alexander Berger

@albrgr

12,000

Followers

2,143

Following

500

Media

1,388

Statuses

Enjoys a good applied micro paper. CEO of @open_phil . Views my own, tweets self-destruct every once in a while.

San Francisco, CA

Joined March 2011

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

2 years

It has come to my attention that some people assume I read the papers I retweet. Let me be clear: that is slander. I have an actual job. If I don’t screenshot from the full text of the paper, I probably didn’t read it. Also, I provide no warranties. That concludes this broadcast.

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

2 years

Wow the South Korean population pyramid is insane (>3x as many 50 year olds as 1 year olds): h/t @brightertmrrw

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Alexander Berger

5 years

Yet another insane paper on air pollution: 1 Volkswagen cheating diesel per 1,000 cars (which is about the average) increases total car exhaust by 10%(!), causes 1.9% increase in low birth weight babies. Effects much bigger than previous studies.

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Alexander Berger

3 years

Oof

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Alexander Berger

4 years

This paper is totally crazy: Originally they intended to test the impact of parateachers in Guinea Bissau a la this paper () in The Gambia, but the people they trained held out for way higher wages and sued them(!). After winning...

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

5 years

Really cool paper finding that $500 grants from George Soros in 1992 led a bunch of Russian scientists to stay in science after the collapse of the USSR, netting an average of ~5 publications per scientist over next couple decades:

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

7 years

This paper is nuts: Just changing the payment schedule for food stamps cut grocery store theft by 32%

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

3 years

I've been waiting for someone to write this paper: (new econ Nobel!) David Card, @rothstein_jesse and Moises Yi use admin data to better estimate big productivity gains from moving to higher-wage metros. But housing costs more than offset average gains :(

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Alexander Berger

4 days

It’s kind of wild to me that, as of two weeks ago, there are now 3 large cluster randomized trials across five countries in Sub-Saharan Africa showing that giving every kid antibiotics reduces child mortality by ~14% and I don’t see anyone talking about it!

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

2 years

It’s hilarious to me that the world’s biggest companies, hiring the best minds of my generation to think about how to make people click on ads, in a data-rich environment where everything is observed, can’t get non-experimental causal inference to work:

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

3 years

This paper on the impact of private equity purchases of nursing homes on patient mortality finds incredibly large harmful effects

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

16 days

YIMBYs have been taking victory laps this week on the back of some great speeches at the DNC. @open_phil has been the movement's biggest funder for most of the past decade, and I’m super proud of the progress. But we’re still very early in this fight: 1/

@JerusalemDemsas

Jerusalem

@JerusalemDemsas

18 days

Just a few years ago, if you’d asked the leading political scientists & thought leaders whether YIMBY ideas would be advanced by a figure like Obama on a national stage, they’d have laughed you. Clear evidence for the power of (correct) ideas.

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

1 year

I’m excited about this and daunted by the responsibility:

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Alexander Berger is Now Sole CEO of Open Philanthropy | Open Philanthropy

On behalf of Open Philanthropy’s board, I’m excited to announce that Alexander Berger is now sole CEO of Open Philanthropy! Alexander has served as co-CEO since 2021 and has run the organization...

www.openphilanthropy.org

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

7 years

Another pretty compelling paper on the impact of lead on crime, in Sweden this time:

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

2 years

Insanely in-depth, sober, and ultimately kinda delightful dissection of how @Columbia systematically gamed the US News college rankings to get to #2 :

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

2 years

I still can't get over the fact that people adding lead to tumeric to make it more yellow is one of the biggest causes of lead poisoning in the world: Just sounds so... evil?

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Sources of Blood Lead Exposure in Rural Bangladesh

Lead (Pb) exposure is a major public health problem worldwide. Although high levels of Pb in blood in Bangladesh have been documented, the dominant Pb sources contributing to human exposure in rural...

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

2 years

Kinda crazy paper finding that even the Cultural Revolution didn't come close to eliminating the lasting impact of historical socioeconomic status in China:

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

3 years

Good paper finding that an air quality warning system in South Korea massively passed a cost-benefit test just based on day-of healthcare costs, not to mention any actual health or longer term benefits:

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

3 years

A couple of newish papers on the impact of US strengthening of air pollution regulations in 2003-05, finding that doing so reduced dementia and elderly mortality:

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

8 months

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

8 years

This is crazy: manipulation of Swedish middle school tests leads to ~20% more income at 23

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

9 months

Huh wow

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@restatjournal

The Review of Economics and Statistics (REStat)

9 months

The rise of tea drinking in England had a significant impact on mortality during the Industrial Revolution. In the November 2023 issue, by Francisca M. Antman.

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

2 years

Today’s publication day for @willmacaskill 's excellent new book What We Owe The Future! I learned a lot from the book and highly recommend it. I also thought it didn’t resolve some of my key questions about longtermism. Long thread on both parts:

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

3 years

Some work news

@open_phil

Open Philanthropy

3 years

We’re excited to announce that Open Philanthropy co-founder @albrgr has been promoted to co-CEO! Alexander leads our work on causes focused on maximizing verifiable impact within our lifetimes, which we're now referring to as Global Health and Wellbeing.

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

10 days

Interesting result finding that you basically can’t measure the statistical effects of policy differences across US states unless they have huge effects: 50 states just aren’t enough.

@aweisstweets

Amanda Weiss

10 days

🚨 Job Market Paper alert! "How Much Should We Trust Modern Difference-in-Differences Estimates?" at I assess the fit between modern DID-style estimators and real-world data features, and point to approaches for improving inference. Quick thread ⬇️

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

2 years

Really appreciated this essay from @michael_nielsen on effective altruism and why he's not sold: Here's a long navel-gazing thread with my reactions:

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

11 days

Seeing Like A State is a brilliant book IMO, but it’s wild that anyone reads it as more than one side of an obvious dialectic. It’s ironically so uninterested in the complexity (and benefits) of the systems it critiques.

@mattyglesias

Matthew Yglesias

11 days

I really enjoyed Seeing Like A State, but Paul Seabright's critical review of it is also very good.

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

2 years

Great @JerusalemDemsas piece on the moral bankruptcy of overpopulation worries:

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

3 years

Very cool paper! uses placement of LDS missionaries to study formation of immigration policy views

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

2 years

This image showing how many high-impact education interventions have plummeting impacts as they scale is super interesting and depressing:

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@leecrawfurd

Lee Crawfurd

2 years

So we turned this thread into a report chapter. This figure shows: 3 ed programs with steeply diminishing effects as they scale (early-grade reading programs, home visits, & teacher coaching) 2 that seem much more consistent (longer hours & meals)

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

24 days

Seems like a strong argument for @robinhanson conditional prediction markets on firing CEOs:

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

8 months

Cool research from our grantees at @RANDCorporation finding that current LLMs don't outperform google at planning bioweapons attacks

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

8 days

Recently a 60ish guy traveling alone on a flight asked me if I could “do something” about the screaming baby I was urgently trying to calm down… ?????

@bendreyfuss

Ben Dreyfuss

8 days

There is this baby sobbing hysterically in the row behind me on this flight and everyone around us is glaring at the mom but, like, it’s not her fault. What’s she supposed to do? Chloroform it? Put some AirPods in, dipshit, and get over it.

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Alexander Berger

3 years

Super interesting paper finding that the US extending patent protection to plants in 1985 led to a surge in new crop development and increased (especially large) farm profits and land values

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Alexander Berger

3 years

I find this @mattyglesias take compelling: The overall covid response makes me worried about something like "decadence" - as a society we've built so many processes that mostly work, but no longer seem capable of reform when they stop doing so.

Our public health agencies should follow the science

On dose-spacing, testing, and treatment recommendations, we’re behind the curve

www.slowboring.com

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

6 years

Another paper finding big negative externalities from pollution: Methods on this one are crazy - they got *the universe of credit and debit card transactions in China* to measure healthcare spending.

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

2 years

Prompted by a discussion with @michael_nielsen : how is the LHC not an absolute disaster? Imagining a bunch of scientists governing by committee trying to build the ~most complex machine ever, seems like it should have been impossible. But it ~works. What can I read about how?

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

5 years

Yet *another* crazy paper on the adverse impacts of air pollution, this time on crime: Coverage in @TheEconomist :

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Alexander Berger

10 days

I’m still mad about this. The results of that paper matter to me, it affects some decisions @open_phil (on the margin, but still). If economics as a discipline wants people to listen to evidence, it needs to hold up its side of the bargain and update or retract major errors.

@albrgr

Alexander Berger

11 days

I think economics journals need to do more retractions or have a lower bar for accepting comments. I have no idea if @michael_wiebe is right here, but claim of devastating coding error in main results of an AER paper should not linger unanswered publicly for 6 months.

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Alexander Berger

4 years

What this ultimately shows is pretty basic: there are places where kids are in school and just not learning to read or even recognize numbers, and that's an in principle fixable problem for ~$425/kid/year.

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

26 days

I'm enjoying @NateSilver538 's new book! Couple passages I highlighted:

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

7 years

This paper is an unbelievable tour de force:

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

2 years

Today in "professionals overestimate the treatment effects of everything" news

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Alexander Berger

3 years

Crazy stat: aging into legal driving age increases *total mortality risk* for teenagers by 15%

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@AEAjournals

AEA Journals

3 years

Forthcoming in AER: Insights: "Teenage Driving, Mortality, and Risky Behaviors" by Jason Huh and Julian Reif.

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

2 years

Brilliant and ultimately beautiful @ezraklein essay on the moral shortsightedness of climate antinatalism and benefits of a political vision of abundance:

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Opinion | Your Kids Are Not Doomed (Published 2022)

The green future has to be a welcoming one, even a thrilling one.

www.nytimes.com

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

8 months

I found this surprisingly high: "25% of [Giving Pledge] signatories have been accused of financial misconduct, and 10% convicted. 4% of signatories have spent at least one day in prison"

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Rates of Criminality Amongst Giving Pledge Signatories — EA Forum

Summary 1. I investigate the rates of criminal misconduct amongst people who have taken The Giving Pledge (roughly: ~200 [non-EA] billionaires who h…

forum.effectivealtruism.org

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

1 year

Prompted by this, our science team funded a replication, pub'd in 2021, using Veterans Health Administration data. It found that people with HSV were *less* likely to develop dementia & people who took antivirals accounted for most of the association:

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Symptomatic Herpes Simplex Virus Infection and Risk of Dementia in US Veterans: a Cohort Study

Neurotherapeutics - A Taiwanese cohort study found that symptomatic herpes simplex virus (HSV) infection was associated with a threefold increased risk of developing dementia; however, antiherpetic...

link.springer.com

@cremieuxrecueil

Crémieux

@cremieuxrecueil

1 year

Herpes is terrible, but did you know it might also be making people demented? Studies of the effects of antivirals support this contention and show that we may be able to greatly reduce dementia rates with existing drugs. Check out this Taiwanese result.

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Alexander Berger

3 years

Kinda sad paper implying that a lot of NIMBYism in housing supply restrictions comes from not being able to use local taxes to exclusively subsidize local public schools:

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

1 year

Never like to see fraud, but I continue to be so impressed with @GiveDirectly 's handling of cases like this:

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Fraud in D.R.C. – our apology and response | GiveDirectly

We’ve learned members of our team in D.R.C. conspired with others outside of the organization to defraud our cash transfer program. Here’s what you should know.

www.givedirectly.org

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

3 years

Always crazy realizing how big NASA was during the Apollo era:

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Alexander Berger

3 years

This is an IMO super impressive job market paper, working with tons of Social Security and Medicare data to find that ~randomly getting $100 more of SS reduces medicare spending by $38: Also see mortality decrease(!) tho I can't figure cost per life saved

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

11 days

I think economics journals need to do more retractions or have a lower bar for accepting comments. I have no idea if @michael_wiebe is right here, but claim of devastating coding error in main results of an AER paper should not linger unanswered publicly for 6 months.

@michael_wiebe

Michael Wiebe

8 months

🚨Replication alert🚨 I reanalyze Moretti (2021), which tests for the effect of tech cluster size on innovation. I find that the event study and instrumental variable estimates—necessary for a causal interpretation—are caused by coding errors. #EconTwitter 1/

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

6 years

Cool paper finds that Americans massively underestimate their relative position in the global income distribution and give more to foreign charities when given more accurate info:

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

3 years

I'm excited about this! Today @open_phil is launching a $150 million regranting competition, aimed at finding the 1-5 highest-impact funders we can and just adding to their work:

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

3 years

Not to go all Bad Art Friend, but just realized that today it my 10 year anniversary of donating a kidney. It's not how I'd phrase all of it today, but I still think this argument mostly holds up: One of the better things I've ever done, would recommend

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Opinion | Why Selling Kidneys Should Be Legal (Published 2011)

In two days, I’m donating a kidney. If I could sell it instead, more lives would be saved.

www.nytimes.com

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

2 years

Meta-analysis of lead/crime lit finds pub bias but thinks there’s real effect

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

4 years

Yet another crazy air pollution result

@jenniferdoleac

Jennifer Doleac

@jenniferdoleac

4 years

Nanna Fukushima JMP: "The UK Clean Air Act, Black Smoke, and Infant Mortality" Website:

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

6 years

Yet another paper finding pollution has surprisingly big negative health effects: I'd be interested in some kind of synthesis effort, taking all the different sources of pollution variation and outcomes people have looked at and crossing them.

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

4 years

Not a shocker, but state laws to increase the age for tobacco purchases from 18 to 21 did work to cut smoking amongst 18-20 year olds. The federal version of this that passed in 2019 was one of the biggest pieces of sleeper legislation I can remember.

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

2 years

It feels under-appreciated to me that 3 of last 6 US presidential elections have been decided by less than 1pp: IMO very surprising! Even in a race polling at ~50/50, I think you'd expect more variance just from polling error. Any theories? Just chance?

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

2 years

Interesting paper finding that air pollution reduces performance in chess, particularly under time pressure:

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

7 months

People should really put "in the US" in these abstracts

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@restatjournal

The Review of Economics and Statistics (REStat)

7 months

Authors find that intergenerational mobility declined sharply around 1980 when inequality rose sharply. Just Accepted new paper by JJonathan Davis, @jonmvdavis ; Bhashkar Mazumder, @BhashMazumder .

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

2 months

Very cool paper corroborating the rest of the literature finding that air pollution and lead pollution are both very bad:

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@ctaylor463

Charles Taylor

2 months

tomorrow @xinmingd is presenting our new paper on air pollution and aviation, using overhead aircraft routes as a source of exogenous variation to investigate pollution impacts globally @nberpubs

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

2 years

Another great @ezraklein essay on the abundance agenda and how procedural obsessions prevent faster progress:

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

5 years

Interesting paper on better welfare measures beyond GDP, including lifespan, leisure, and inequality (h/t @Ishan_Nath ): Still ends up correlated .98 with GDP per capita though :)

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

6 years

Finally got around to reading this RCT on the impact of quitting Facebook from Hunt Allcott, Luca Braghieri, Sarah Eichmeyer, and Matthew Gentzkow. It is *really* good: The 5 page intro gives a remarkable summary of the results.

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

2 years

Three more recent NBER working papers finding negative impacts of particulate pollution: (ship emissions in US increase infant mortality) (pollution in china reduces fertility) (US coal reduces test scores)

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

2 years

I hadn't re-read this paper in a while, it's an absolute banger: NIH grants lead to ~just as many patents on diseases that aren't what they were focused on as what they were.

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

4 months

bittersweet news: my cofounder Holden Karnofsky is leaving for a role @CarnegieEndow . Our announcement:

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Holden Karnofsky is Leaving Open Phil for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Open...

I have bittersweet news to announce: Holden Karnofsky, who cofounded Open Philanthropy and helped to run it through July 2023, is leaving to become a Visiting Scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for...

www.openphilanthropy.org

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

11 months

Open Phil is giving $300M to GiveWell's recommendations over the next 3 years, bringing total to date to >$1B and returning to 2020 annual level. Our post explaining the decision (joint w/ @EmilyOehlsen ): @GiveWell 's post:

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Open Philanthropy's 2023-2025 funding of $300 million total for GiveWell's recommendations - The...

This year, Open Philanthropy plans to give $300 million for GiveWell to spend over the next three years. We’re grateful for what this support will enable us to do.

blog.givewell.org

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

3 years

Super interesting paper I hadn't seen before on how the US massively restricting (overwhelmingly low-skill) immigration in the 1920s reduced(!) patenting in the most affected cities and industries:

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

2 years

People died of heat in Japan because of energy conservation measures after their nuclear plans were shut down

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@AEAjournals

AEA Journals

2 years

Forthcoming in AEJ: Applied Economics: "Energy Saving May Kill: Evidence from the Fukushima Nuclear Accident" by Guojun He and Takanao Tanaka.

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Alexander Berger

11 days

I love this @MaxCRoser manifesto:

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The world is awful. The world is much better. The world can be much better.

It is wrong to think these three statements contradict each other. We need to see that they are all true to see that a better world is possible.

ourworldindata.org

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

3 years

Where's the best list of important technicalish things that should have (at least maybe) been done differently with Covid? Thinking of: -Rapid tests -HCTs -Fractional dosing trials -More SOLIDARITY type trials -Massive $ in vaccine prod infra a la Kremer et al Surely many others

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

11 months

Phenomenal essay on the experience of donating a kidney (hilarious, painful, and in characteristic @slatestarcodex fashion, an outstanding review of the evidence):

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

3 years

I'm excited about this news! @open_phil is giving the @GiveWell recommendations $300M this year, up from $100M last year, and planning to go to $500M next year. Driven by GW finding more great new opportunities + other updates:

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2021 Allocation to GiveWell Top Charities: Why We’re Giving More Going Forward | Open Philanthropy

As we wrote last week, we’re substantially growing our overall giving in Global Health and Wellbeing, with the bar in that broad portfolio continuing to be set by the cost-effective, evidence-backed...

www.openphilanthropy.org

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

2 years

Very cool paper from @thesamasher @alicampion13 Gollin @paulnovosad finding that canals in India increase agricultural production and rural population while sectoral transformation operates through geographic mobility:

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

3 years

Impressive meta-analysis of the impact of cash transfers on subjective wellbeing from @HappierLivesIns : If my math is right, effect on life satisfaction per $ doubling is very close to what you'd read off this old @BetseyStevenson @JustinWolfers chart:

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

2 years

I realize not the intended point here, but what happened between 2002 and 2012 that cut child car crash deaths in half?

@eeshani_kandpal

Eeshani Kandpal

@eeshani_kandpal

2 years

Guns are the leading cause of death for American children. Car crashes come second. Source: Goldstick, Cunningham, and Carter. NEJM, May 19 2022.

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Alexander Berger

16 days

I think YIMBY now is best described by the Churchill quote: “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." We still need folks to be getting involved, this is still nascent!

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@albrgr

Alexander Berger

6 months

Just posted our 2023 annual review: It's been a rollercoaster couple of years, but I'm proud of our team and excited about the year ahead.

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Our Progress in 2023 and Plans for 2024 | Open Philanthropy

Like many organizations, Open Philanthropy has had multiple founding moments. Depending on how you count, we will be either seven, ten, or thirteen years old this year. Regardless of when you start...

www.openphilanthropy.org

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