Charles Taylor @ctaylor463 Twitter profile

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

9 months

Ever wonder why so many Norwegians ended up in Minnesota? Or Azoreans in Central California? Or Vietnamese in Louisiana? Our new working paper introduces “climate matching” as a driver of migration.

NBER

@nberpubs

9 months

Introducing the concept of climate matching as a driver of migration: movers select destinations with climates similar to their place of origin, from Marguerite Obolensky, Marco Tabellini, and @ctaylor463

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

3 years

Given the buzz around Brood X, I’ll share some things I learned while writing my JMP. Cicadas are extraordinary critters…and a good natural experiment. I use them to estimate the impact of pesticides on infant mortality and educational outcomes.

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

9 months

This aligns with folk wisdom: “Newcomers from Europe commonly sought climatic conditions [in the US] like those in which they had been raised” - Calvin Coolidge. (my grandfather’s favorite joke was that Norwegians chose Minnesota for its mild winters)

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

9 months

We find that migrants systematically seek out destinations with familiar climates. In other words, relative climate change is important to people, not just absolute climate.

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

9 months

And a bonus for those who love soils (only alluded to in the paper), we also find that farmer-migrants seek out familiar soils, minimizing the “soil distance” from their homeland soils in terms of soil bulk density, organic matter, pH, etc.

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

9 months

The relationship also holds within countries too: using linked Census data, we show that people from colder parts of Norway settled in colder parts of the US. Same holds for Germans (who remain the largest ancestry group in the US with 45 million).

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

3 years

Global agricultural land area has decreased in recent years. Natural lands are recovering. Why? Here's a long view on global land use and its economic drivers...since the 1800s w/ @jrising - via @IOPscience

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

9 months

This was a very fun paper to write with great co-authors Marguerite Obolensky and Marco Tabellini. Here is a nice summary piece in Vox EU:

Homeward bound: How migrants seek out familiar climates

‘Climate matching’ refers to the idea that migrants seek out destinations with climates similar to those of their origin. This column analyses flows of German, Norwegian, and domestic migrants in the...

cepr.org

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

3 years

Crop yields in the US have increased dramatically since the 1940s, driven by input usage, mechanization, irrigation, and crop genetics. But at the same, CO2 levels have increased, another driver of plant growth. Such co-trending effects are difficult to untangle.

NBER

@nberpubs

3 years

CO2 data from NASA’s OCO-2 satellite finds a consistently high CO2 fertilization effect on US agriculture, explaining 10 to 40 percent of the observed yield trends since 1940, from @ctaylor463 and Wolfram Schlenker

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

2 years

Here’s some new work on large-scale tree planting and climate change!

annapappp

@annapappp

2 years

Tree planting is widely popular w/ programs from the Sahel to South Korea – but can it lead to *local* climate change? @florian_grosset @ctaylor463 and I study this in a new WP "Rain follows the forest: Land use policy, climate change, and adaptation" 1/8

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

9 months

And these patterns changed over time along with climate change: migration increased more between locations whose climate converged between 1900 and 2019!

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

9 months

We also explore the effects of climate “mismatch” in terms of mortality, and we estimate the value that people put on climate similarity using the Homestead Act of 1862 as a natural experiment.

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

3 years

Supreme Court just announced it will take on #WOTUS , determining which waters/wetlands are protected under the Clean Water Act. This is among the most important land use regulations in the US--with huge environmental and economic implications @EPA (1/2)

Supreme Court to Weigh Curbs on Clean Water Act, Pitting Property Rights Against Wetlands

www.bloomberg.com

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

9 months

While climate was a bigger driver of migration in the past (more farmers; pre-AC), it remains a major factor today. As for drivers, we investigate the role of climate-specific skills (i.e., farming knowledge, construction methods) versus amenities/cultural preferences.

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

3 years

Working paper on wetlands and flooding with Hannah Druckenmiller @rff . We find higher damages in places downstream from wetland loss, including 'isolated' wetlands. In light of Hurricane Ida devastation, this highlights importance of wetlands as @EPA and @USACEHQ review @wotus

Resources for the Future

@rff

3 years

Flooding is the most common—and costly— #NaturalDisaster . A new working paper by researchers at RFF and @ColumbiaSIPA examines the benefits of #wetlands in mitigating #flood damage in the United States. #WOTUS #CleanWaterAct

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

1 year

We're hiring a junior faculty member at Harvard @Kennedy_School . Open to environmental folks! Application here:

Eliana La Ferrara

@elianalaferrara

1 year

Harvard Kennedy School is on the junior market this year for a position in macro, development, environmental and energy economics. Candidates should be able to teach macro at the graduate level. Interested candidates apply!!

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

3 years

This is followed by higher subsequent-year infant mortality and other adverse health impacts.

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

9 months

Great to see this paper out. It tells us which lands are (likely) federally regulated, and which are not, under the Clean Water Act--a major source of uncertainty for decades! I bet it will prove useful to regulators, environmentalists, and developers alike.

Joseph Shapiro

@_josephshapiro

9 months

New in @ScienceMagazine (my first research article there!): Machine learning predicts which rivers, wetlands the Clean Water Act regulates Motivation: EPA and Army Corps say "EXISTING TOOLS CANNOT ACCURATELY MAP THE SCOPE OF CLEAN WATER ACT JURISDICTION"

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

3 years

Cicadas are harmless to humans. If you have trees in your yard, don’t worry. Damage is limited and mostly to young trees. If worried, you can put some mesh netting over them (rather than insecticide).

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

3 years

Cicadas provide an excellent source of variation: each of the 15 broods has a different geographic footprint and year when they emerge.

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

1 year

Thanks @hagertynw . The recent Sackett v. EPA ruling strips protection from wetlands lacking a continuous surface water connection to navigable waters--but these very wetlands are the "sponges" that protect our cities from flooding!

Wetlands, Flooding, and the Clean Water Act

(April 2022) - In 2020 the Environmental Protection Agency narrowed the definition of "waters of the United States," significantly limiting wetland protection under the Clean Water Act. Current...

www.aeaweb.org

Nick Hagerty

@hagertynw

1 year

Too bad SCOTUS missed @ctaylor463 and @HannahDruck 's 2022 paper in the AER "We evaluate wetland location relative to the surface water network and find that the most valuable wetlands for flood mitigation are those located 500 to 750 meters from the nearest stream or river."

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

3 years

Cicadas don’t harm agricultural crops like corn or soy (or humans, for that matter)—just trees. I use this as an additional source variation. A sharp increase in insecticide use coincides with cicada emergence only in places with high tree crop production.

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

3 years

@lukestein Not quite QJE...but at least my JMP. Cicadas are wonderful, strange creatures. And the perfect natural experiment. I use them to assess the impact of pesticides on infant mortality and educational outcomes. @leah_boustan

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

3 years

Our paper on wetland valuation just came out. Hopefully it can be useful to EPA/US Army Corps as they reformulate #WOTUS

Berkeley Agricultural and Resource Economics

@AreBerkeley

3 years

Congrats to ARE 2021 Alumna Hannah Druckenmiller on her American Economic Review publication out today: "Wetlands, Flooding, and the Clean Water Act" with Charles Taylor @ctaylor463 @NatureAtCal

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

3 years

Thanks @JoshuaSGoodman - I guess this is my once-in-17-year chance. The great Brood X has arrived!

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

4 years

Thanks @JonathanColmer . I'm excited for the cicadas. They are truly wonderful creatures, harmless to people and agricultural crops. But they can damage orchards, a fact I use to assess long-term impacts of insecticides on health/development. @JoshuaSGoodman @hagertynw

Jonathan Colmer

@JonathanColmer

4 years

@JoshuaSGoodman They emerge in 13 and 17-year cycles. Charles Taylor (a grad student at Columbia has a nice paper, exploiting this variation. He finds higher insecticide use during gestation is associated with corresponding effects on infant health and test scores

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

3 years

Legal debates center on challenges to estimating the costs/benefits of wetland regulation. Our forthcoming paper provides an approach to estimating the value of wetlands for flood mitigation using detailed spatial data, including "isolated" wetlands (2/2)

Wetlands, Flooding, and the Clean Water Act

(April 2022) - In 2020 the Environmental Protection Agency narrowed the definition of "waters of the United States," significantly limiting wetland protection under the Clean Water Act. Current...

www.aeaweb.org

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

3 years

Given this only happens once every 17 years, some more fun facts about cicadas. 1. Periodical cicadas only exist in the eastern half of the US…nowhere else in the world 2. Largest one-time source of biomass (weight in bugs per acre) of any creature on earth

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

2 years

A sincere thanks to everyone at Columbia and SusDev for all the support along the way. I will miss you and NYC greatly!

SIPA SusDev

@SipaSusdev

2 years

Congrats to Dr. Charles Taylor for the successful defense of his dissertation, Essays on Land Use and Agriculture! We wish you the best of luck at @AreBerkeley and @Kennedy_School . @ColumbiaSIPA @ctaylor463 @ColumbiaCEEP

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

4 years

New work in PNAS linking slaughterhouses to 6-8% of COVID-19 cases with coauthors @chrisboulos and Doug Almond @ColumbiaSIPA @ColumbiaCEEP @Columbia @PNASNews 1/5

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

3 years

Thanks for highlighting my JMP on pesticide impacts @cblatts !

Chris Blattman

@cblatts

3 years

Does buying organic save lives?

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

4 years

A good summary of our research which includes some responses from industry and worker groups.

Meatpacking Link Found in Up to 8% of Early U.S. Covid Cases

As many as one in 12 cases of Covid-19 in the early stage of the pandemic in the U.S. can be tied to outbreaks at meatpacking plants and subsequent spread in surrounding communities, according to a...

www.bloomberg.com

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

3 years

Cicadas damage trees by laying eggs in branches. When the eggs hatch, nymphs fall to the ground and feed on roots (reducing tree growth). Tree farmers/orchards owners use insecticides to control this.

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

2 years

This is a great opportunity for PhD students researching climate change!

Joe Aldy

@josephaldy

2 years

CALL FOR PAPERS, Climate Economics Pipeline Workshop, Harvard Kennedy School June 20, 2023. Workshop will feature research on climate change & climate change policy by doctoral students. Submit papers by April 15 at: @RobertStavins @HarvardWCFIA @AereOrg

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

3 years

We reiterate that climate change will have a large negative impact on agriculture in aggregate, especially in places exposed to extreme heat. And higher CO2 may even lower food nutrition. But the countervailing fertilization effect should also be taken into account.

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

3 years

Thanks to @JoshuaSGoodman for the title idea ("Cicadian Rhythm", ha!) and encouraging this tweetstorm ;) @ColumbiaCEEP @SipaSusdev @ColumbiaSIPA

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

3 years

As expected @TheEconomist came up with a better pun than I did ;)

SIPA SusDev

@SipaSusdev

3 years

Research by @ColumbiaSIPA PhD candidate @ctaylor463 : A brooding problem – Cicadas, insecticides and children

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

1 year

Important OpEd on the potentially very strong El Niño that's brewing in the Pacific. By @AmirJina @GCMcCord @jesseXjesse alums of @SipaSusdev El Niños Are Predictable. We Should Prepare for Their Possibly Disastrous Consequences.

Opinion | El Niños Are Predictable. We Should Prepare for Their Possibly Disastrous Consequences.

Rich countries must deepen their assistance to developing countries in the path of the weather pattern.

www.nytimes.com

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

3 years

7. Great song, but I think Self Portrait is actually a better album than New Morning 😬 8. Since there are no cicadas in NYC, I’ll be a @cicadatourist heading to the DC-area to see Brood X!

Day of the Locusts

Bob Dylan · New Morning · Song · 1970

open.spotify.com

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

3 years

5. Brood X (current one) is the biggest. Brood VII is the tiniest, just in the Finger Lakes of NY (last in 2018) 6. Bob Dylan wrote “Day of the Locusts” after the getting an honorary degree from Princeton during the Brood X in 1970 (the great grandparents’ of today’s cicadas).

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

1 year

Other waters that stand to lose WOTUS protection are the intermittent streams common throughout the Western US--which, as seen in California this winter, are critical to mitigating flood waters.

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

3 years

Once again, cicadas are wonderful creatures. They are harmless to humans. The lesson here is to be careful with pesticides!

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

3 years

@leah_boustan Fun fact about Princeton cicadas: Bob Dylan wrote “Day of the Locusts” after the getting an honorary degree during the Brood X emergence in 1970. I guess they'd be this cohort's great-grandparents?

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

3 years

In this working paper with Wolfram Schlenker @ColumbiaSIPA , we use NASA's new OCO-2 satellite to estimate the CO2 fertilization effect on corn, soy, and wheat across the US. We find relatively large effects compared to FACE experiments.

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

3 years

3. Theory is that cicadas emerge in prime number intervals (13 and 17 years) for predator satiation reasons. Birds won’t be able to sync up and eat them all! 4. Chickens go on a feeding frenzy and lay more eggs (purely anecdotal…but how I came up with the research idea).

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

4 years

We find that the presence of a livestock plant in a county is associated with >50% more COVID-19 cases and >37% more deaths in July, after controlling for density, demographics, connectivity, etc. This holds for cattle, hog and poultry operations. 2/5

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

4 years

@JonathanColmer @JoshuaSGoodman @hagertynw Back in Virginia, where my wife and I just welcomed a healthy baby girl into the world ;)

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Charles Taylor

@ctaylor463

3 years

@linusblomqvist @jrising (likely captured in FAO’s harvested vs standing categorization)—a historical pattern seen in China, Europe, N America. Interesting that Potapov et al. find much of recent cropland growth in Africa, where many country GDPs are under the $5,000 transition threshold we find.

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