Aggressive Value @aggresivevalue Twitter profile

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@BeholdGolgotha

Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

#coaltwitter $AMR $ARCH $HCC $BTU Jeffries upgrading the whole sector: "We used to think price going right back to where they came from. They aren't. THE END"

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

Small reminder that commodities were already surging BEFORE Russia. If they sell off because of “peace “ agreement they should be bought. The world was tight coming in and net tighter coming out. The end.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

7 months

$BTU metcoal production outlook: 23: 6.9m tons 24: 8m tons 25: 8.5m tons 26: 10m tons 27: 12m tons More importantly, quality improves dramatically over period bringing realizations to 80% of PLV compared to 67.5% now. At 300 PLV : ‘24 met segment margin ~ 550m, ‘27 1.1B

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

#Commodities . The snapdown action on every negative headline is indicative of how many free riders are on this trade and how few true believers there are. Doesn't indicate excessive bullishness at all with everyone one foot out the door at all times

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

$AMR $BTU $ARCH On the day of the quarterly coal puke, small reminder. Met coal prices have been rising around the world along with steel prices. Thermal prices still excellent historically. $AMR trading close to 1x EV/EBITDA for 23 right now. $BTU Has all its met exposure open.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

$BTU Newcastle coal front month on fire. Back at $380. margins at this price are $300 per ton. Curve for 2023 implies 250 per ton on open 4 million tons. Could be a billion in margin from Wambo alone.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

Commodity “Crash” = Oil $100/ natgas 7.50 /coal 300+

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

1 year

$AMR $ARCH $HCC $METC. Met coal on fire. You wouldn’t know from the share prices but $300 is now striking distance. At this Curve $AMR earns ~$65 FCF in 24. Q4 also gonna crush eps estimates.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

#coaltwitter . Thermal coal curve getting flatter. Now 300 to year end. I’m starting to think contango is ahead as real shortage going to be next winter.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

3 years

$X post earnings 🧵 Net debt now at 1.3 billion. Which is against almost 6 billion EBITDA in 21. balance sheet optimized long term. No need for cashflow to pay debt going forward. Pensions over funded as well and won’t be needing cash payment.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

#Value If you haven’t figured it out we are entering a different era in the market. The era of Free Cash Flow

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

$BTU In a strange way it is good to relieve ourselves of the "winter is coming " crowd. The value here is in the long term cashflows from the platform they have built even at much lower prices than current spot. Net cash at end 23 likely 3 billon which is close to 20 per share.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

1 year

@coloradotravis Assuming you are left with 900k after tax, you should pay down heloc which will leave you with 500k to invest. You now have the HELOC available in case another huge op makes itself available down the road.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

🧵1- $BTU time to give it a whirl. We have all the tons locked at end '21with total margin of $480 million. What was still open at the time was - 2-7M tons PRB - 0-1 ILB tons - 6 million seaborne met -5-5.5 m PCI /SHCC out of Aus - 2 m High vol A out of ShCrk -2m PCI Yancoal

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

$BTU will have 1.5 billion cash at end of q1. Uses should be 500+ for sureties. 1 billion to take out Elliot and the convertible debt. Cuts shares outstanding by almost 25%

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

10 months

$HCC is ~35% of Teck coal production. It's also lower cost. Implied value here is $70+ per share for current ops and north of $100 once Blue Creek comes on line.

latinmines

@latinmines

10 months

@mfwarder

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

300+ Coal/ natgas 6.60 97+ oil. Serious crash we got on our hands in energy.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

1 year

#CoalTwitter $AMR $HCC $ARCH As the market smites all commodity companies on economic fears, coking futures for 24 and 25 have been climbing sharply. H1 24 now close to 290 per ton.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

8 months

$BTU Shoal Creek surprised big in Q4 with 338k! Bodes extremely well for the year ahead.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

#natgas All the traders are busy with the weather the next 2 weeks and Freeport. The real play here is next 2 years. More exports coming reducing supply which will narrow the US/export spread. It means gas will be higher for next few years on avg. Find names that benefit.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

$BTU. now selling at 1 multiple again.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

$BTU q1 will be close call all 450m-500m EBITDA likely dogged by 200m in hedge losses. Whatever is reported is a side show. Q2 likely headed for EBITDA well in excess of a billion.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

#coaltwitter $BTU here at $20 = $AMR last year at $60

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

$BTU. Q2 earnings 750m + second half earnings at curve ~ 1.75b. Total 2.5 billion. EV 3.4 billion. At these prices you own company at 1 billion valuation by year end

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

The consequences of fear-mongering a recession is it ensures no one will be adding supply to much needed resources and industries. It’s going to have exact opposite effect of what’s needed to help prices long term.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

8 months

#CoalTwitter $AMR $ARCH $HCC $METC $BTU In other news, $BHP cut outlook for metcoal production. By 8+ million tons for year ending in June 24.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

$BTU. We can argue how prices will ultimately unfolds, but at forward curve $BTU earns over 3 billion EBITDA in both '22 and '23. Current market cap as converted is less than 4 Billion. Definition of insanity

Keyser Soze

@James56487175

2 years

I do have to say, the most insanely priced non-micro cap I see currently is $BTU. Pure short-term irrationally. ✅ Net cash position (now) ✅ Hedge noise fading ✅ Seaborne spot volumes 📈 ✅ Low capex rqrmts ✅ Dividends ~2023 🚀 Insane coal prices: FTM EBITDA > Current EV

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

1 year

Unpopular opinion: #Oil price inflation impact is overrated. Oil was at $100 for 4 years in a row a decade ago. As a percentage of the average household budget its down huge over last ten years. Everything else costs 50-100% more while oil is down.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

#coal . The ultimate market hedge.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

7 months

$ARCH Kinda funny how shell shocked coal investors are. How many stocks are at zero debt, teens FCF yield, with a stated commitment to distribute 100% to shareholders? I’ll wait.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

#Commodities "Recession coming!. Gonna hurt all commodities!" Don't go to the end of the story before reading the book. The actual shortages have not yet even hit yet as we still have Pre-cataclysm inventory on the ground. This situation is a long term process not a tweet.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

3 months

For those wondering. India stock market crash is behind commodity wipeout today.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

7 months

Energy is most hated in market right now. About to go on a substantial run.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

$BTU can still earn over 3 billion in 22 if markets hold where they are.5 million open thermal tons can net them 150 a ton. 7-8 million met can make 250 per ton margin. They are also getting back close to $300 million from releases of the hedges through the year (180 in q2)

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

Commodities# For the past year when the commodity stocks have diverged from the commodity the commodity has been right. Today won’t be different. Sell at your own peril.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

#coaltwitter $BTU Did someone say $400??

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

#coaltwitter . If current Russia situation unfolds the way it’s headed we are looking at strong coal prices for several years. More US thermal will be exported at high prices causing US prices to soar. PRB numbers will surprise to the upside. $BTU $ARCH have massive leverage.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

1 year

$BTU reaction appropriate. This was mostly expected. Only upside was the 1 billion number and the telegraphed 65% of FCF capitl plan. It is now a grandpa stock which will have high capital return going forward. No more catalyst talk. This is a major positive.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

#coaltwitter Met coal curve went into contango today. First sign end of decline is closer. Curve flat as a pancake around 285-290. $AMR earns 35-40 second half at on 18 million share count. Year likely ends near 15 million s/o with 50 per cash if they only finish current buyback

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

8 months

$BTU close over 26 today lifts 2 million shares from Elliot. They sold calls expiring today with strikes at 24.50 and 26. Looks like a photo finish on million #2 .

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

Update: Even Crashier. oil $114/ natgas $8/ Coal $400

Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

Commodity “Crash” = Oil $100/ natgas 7.50 /coal 300+

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

11 months

$BTU had best operational performance in long time in q3. Production hit all targets and costs beat by a mile. If you are focusing on headline numbers you are missing the big picture.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

Oil only 123! Sell all your energy stocks!

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

8 months

$HCC $AMR MSHA data rolling in. Warrior production almost flat for q4 which is a massive upside surprise compared to company guidance. $AMR looks inline to slightly ahead. If sales match production, look for both to beat estimates handily.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

$BTU take aways for second half. Looks like seaborne thermal makes ~750m, Met including yancoal ~300m US ops ~200m Hedge release ~250 Total 1,500m Sga 43m Interest 65 Capex 100 FCF ~1.25B

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

3 years

#Commodities . #coal . People are not getting it. This was tight market before this crisis. If this isn't resolved we are looking at prices that people have not imagined. You can’t take massive exporter of this magnitude out of market. There is no way to replace.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

#coaltwitter $AMR $ARCH Well, hello there.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

For those of you wondering why Europe turning to coal instead of nuclear ;They still have the renewable dream and are looking for a bridge to get there. Cranking up old coal plants is the simplest bandaid for the way they are viewing the problem.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

3 years

#coaltwitter $AMR $ARCH $HCC Paying attention yet?

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

9 months

$BTU Ex Elliot this trades 30-35.

Kingdom Capital

@kingdomcapadv

9 months

Getting close to needing to revisit $BTU - been a tough go for them relative to the rest of the US Met space but the Elliott overhang is slowly disappearing. A lot of 2024 thermal questions remain...

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

1 year

$ASTL earned almost $1 per share in q2 with good but not great steel market. This is on legacy ops. In 18 months we are looking at doubling plate production and increasing sheet volumes in 25 and 26. The EAF expansion is fully funded without any operating cash needed.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

10 months

#metcoal $AMR $HCC $METC $ARCH Breakout on metcoal futures in China. #narrativeviolation

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

Pro tip. Oil services better bet than oil producers driven by higher prices. Other by prices staying at higher than historical. If oil stays 80 plus big ramp in services and associated steel demand coming. Don’t need wild $200 oil predictions for the win.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

7 months

In past, $BTU had quite a bit of their PCI pegged to these settlements. If same applies in Q4 and Q1, we are looking at much higher realizations than are currently anticipated.

Coal Newswire

@CoalNewswire

7 months

Bullish: Nippon Steel & Foxleigh have agreed on a low-volatile PCI price of $232/ton FOB for Q1 2024. This agreement follows a similar settlement for Q4 2023 at $229/ton FOB, indicating expectations of stable but high hard #cokingcoal prices for remainder of Q1. #Coal #MetCoal

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

#coaltwitter $BTU So much bearish data.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

#Coaltwitter : Should i buy my coal names at 1x or 2x Free Cash Flow? #techtwitter : Do I buy $U at 15 or 10x sales? 🤡🤡🤡

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

1/ $BTU books 1-1.25 bil H2-22. Ends year over a billion net cash.1.5 billion if you count convertible debt as converted. 2023 at curve they make ~3 billion. here's how:

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

Keep selling $BTU guys. Good call.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

$BTU Freeport seen as negative because of US natgas. Remember, $BTU sold out for 22 in US. Only open tonnage is seaborne coal which should benefit from less US LNG in market. Long term opportunity for their US ops unchanged.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

#coaltwitter $AMR $ARCH $HCC More important than the move up is the fact that met coal bottomed near $200 compared to $100 in past. This in what could be described as a terrible steel market. If this is indeed a new floor, the implications for the value of names is staggering.

Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

#coaltwitter . $AMR $ARCH $HCC Well that escalated quickly.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

1 year

#Oil has likely bottomed along with the entire commodity complex

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

$AMR $HCC $ARCH Front month met coal $390 today up 5%. But sell because oil.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

1 year

$AMR $ARCH $HCC $METC Something spicy brewing in coking coal land. Buckle up!

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

1 year

Newcastle near $170 till March 25. $BTU anyone?

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

#coaltwitter $BTU $CEIX $WHC Nice. He’s anti coal too. Considering how much Colombia has been looked to as a seaborne option after Russia , this is another plus for seaborne players.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

3 months

Reliable power wasn’t important to this grifter when it was for turning the lights on and heating your home. But those precious data centers! Can’t disrupt those.

Camus

@newstart_2024

3 months

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink: "The world is going to be short power, short power. And to power these data companies you cannot have just this intermittent power like wind and solar. You need dispatchable power because you can't turn off and on these data centers."

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

Was wondering why $CEIX and $BTU sold off. Now we know.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

$AMR $BTU $ARCH $HCC $SMR.AX Underappreciated fact about coking coal market is the impact of 40% Queensland tax imposed last year. Increases the cost base of Australian producers compared to US operators. It also means Aussies need higher priced coal to make same profit as past.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

1 year

#Oil at $90 and people talking like it’s at $150.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

1 year

While everyone was distracted… #coaltwitter $WHC $BTU

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

11 months

$BTU - -Q4 guidance is outstanding. EBITDA in the high 300s compared to 270 in Q2. - 24 likely to see big step up in met coal production with shoal creek being a real contributor. N Goonyella one of the only large scale PLV mines coming globally. 1 year payback with 250 PLV

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

#Energy . Russia will not be seen as reliable partner for West for a long long time. Fed can’t fix this problem.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

#coaltwitter $AMR $ARCH $HCC Met coal prices up 2% to $510.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

$BTU Sorry for all the "investors" who sold on Coronado rumors. You will be greatly missed.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

1 year

To all my #coaltwitter friends. Please maintain the tweet embargo. It's working.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

#coaltwitter $AMR $ARCH $HCC More good news for exporters

India removes import duty on coking coal, anthracite

The Indian government is removing the import duty on anthractite, PCI coal and coking coal, it said on Saturday, aiming to reduce raw material costs.

www.reuters.com

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

$AMR $ARCH Sell all commodities days are tough but keep in mind why you own these. $AMR $20 eps in q1 is already booked. Current coal margins pushing 300. at 250 margin for their unsold tonnage in q2 they will earn $30-35 per share for the quarter.End April tonnage being sold now

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

#Commodities Act 1 of the Russia commodity trade has just closed. Where people realize there are shortages looming and start to bid up prices, but there is still plenty of inventory piled up on the ground. Act 2 where piles start to shrink is about to commence. The story of Q2

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

#Steel $X $CLF $ASTL Liftoff has arrived. This is before actual shortages hit. Main course will be served over next couple months. From our good friends at Argus.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

#coaltwitter $AMR $ARCH Met coal moves even further into contango. Fascinating.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

#Coaltwitter $ARCH $AMR $HCC Macro comments on $METC call were incredibly supportive. Said most recent low vol sale east coast was well above $500. $400 at the mine per short ton!! This is well above reported index pricing.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

#coaltwitter $AMR $ARCH $HCC But, but, China? And Mongolia ?

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

$AMR Looks like cash ends year at 600+ million on close to 15 million shares outstanding. Q4 gonna be better than q3 on back of rebounding met pricing. 23 looks like a billion plus in FCF at curve. Big increase in buyback and token special divi to boot. still 1x EV 23EBITDA

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

#CoalTwitter $AMR $ARCH $HCC $METC Chinese met coal prices stealthily moving higher for two months. The window to sell from US to China is open at current prices. Great tailwind heading into 23.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

8 months

$BTU SP600

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

#coaltwitter $AMR $ARCH $BTU Met coal prices continue to ramp. Analyst numbers coming into the year may be achieved in the first half alone.

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@aggresivevalue

2 years

#coaltwitter $AMR $ARCH $BTU June coking cola future $500. First time since Russia spike.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

1 year

To give you an idea of how absurd a price this is, $HCC making 100 million EBITDA per MONTH at current coal price. Even at 200 per ton which was recent China COVID shock low they do 500 EBITDA per year. Curve for next 12 months close to $300.

Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

1 year

$HCC I've been told that its down because of recession fears. At COVID bottom with met coal prices near $100 stock had 700m EV. This is with a balance sheet that had 150 million in debt. Compare to today's EV of 1.1b (at q1 end) with a cashed up balance sheet and $340PLV price.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

8 months

$BTU Easy to get to SOP over $40. Add North Goonyella which is one of only PLV projects on the docket and you can get a 5 handle potentially on a longer time frame. A lot needs to happen to get there, but pace of buybacks will be major difference maker.

Porter Collins

@Seawolfcap

8 months

@dyer440 $45 is a very reasonable year end target. That's still +/- 3x EBITDA

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@aggresivevalue

2 years

$BTU $ARCH PRB contracting season is gonna be hot!

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@aggresivevalue

2 years

$BTU Coal prices rallying on back of Euro natural gas as Putin tightens the screws

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@aggresivevalue

2 years

$BTU $ARCH Amazing all the hate to $BTU which has whipped ARCH even after falling by a third. I told you that $AMR would outperform $ARCH over the last year. It has done so by a factor of 4. $BTU over $ARCH for the next year.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

$BTU Has shareholders that are almost as bad as their management. They're busy selling all day because of what they might do, instead of rewarding what they are actually doing.

Matt Warder

@mfwarder

2 years

Most important takeaway from $BTU call is that the sureties that have been preventing shareholder returns will be GONE by 1Q, when they will have *checks notes* about $2B in cash on hand. The $CRN.AX merger downplayed too. All in all a positive call and yet somehow I feel like:

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

For anyone who thinks we are in a recession right now, try finding parking at any airport.

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@aggresivevalue

2 years

Last year's commodity pair was long $X short $CLF. This year its long $AMR short $ARCH. Trading similar prices $AMR has triple the cash per share on balance sheet and will earn at least 25% more per share.

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Aggressive Value

@aggresivevalue

2 years

$coaltwitter. $AMR $ARCH coking coal FOB Australia jumps $40 back to $450+. But oil is down…

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@aggresivevalue