The Energy Realist @_EnergyRealist Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

@sikoswanii

@baua_yuuki

@Wallter_gm

@impala_guy

@biburybill64

@jujulmu

@elad_man

@bokeplokalmalam

@verzache

@NRonczkowski

@AnnikaSaarikko

@pepelon_tin0

@CNewmanTeach

@Azha_ID31

@tizzywoman

@x5_PiG

@JanetJackson

@EneEquis_

@ThisUncutGuy

@vipdadad

@ErnestC65144467

@freedom19730332

@bokeplokalmalam

@vezovicc

@assassin_was

@harthinho

@PCGOMES_2404

@aespqa

@FantasiPenuh

@Hurricanes_NU

@Crystal61717051

@LauGimenezz

@MemphisTFXC

@SeaSnail_1393

@bizcochite

@papmantan69_

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

9 months

*SHALE PRODUCTION GROWTH AND PRIVATES* I was a bit skeptical we can just attribute all the surprise in shale production growth to private E&Ps, but a research note from S&P seems to support this thesis too. Further, this growth has been super concentrated - just 9 privates (out

14

50

207

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

5 months

$xle $xop $oih Breakeven estimates for new oil wells from the recent Dallas Fed energy survey now vs. two years ago; the marginal Permian barrel cost has gone up from $54 to $70; probably why each $CL dip into the $60s has been fairly short-lived:

7

30

131

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

7 months

" $RIG is insolvent at 450k dayrates " Here's a quick exercise using the Q3 numbers which are the latest reported: adjusted EBITDA = $162m revenue = $713m average dayrate = $391,300 revenue if the dayrate was 450k = $820m EBITDA if the dayrate was 450k = $269m cash interest =

7

12

69

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

2 years

Morgan Stanley: commodities tighter for longer #eft #metals #copper

0

19

63

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

$SLB's Olivier LePeuch also saying 85% of offshore FIDs have $50 oil breakeven. Three reasons the breakeven has come down: (1) technology integration (2) better customer prioritization (3) tieback opportunities to existing infrastructure $oih $borr $rig $ois $bkr

1

11

63

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

On the deepwater front, Transocean put up a new presentation today. Nice slide showing rig demand is projected to grow even at $40 oil; offshore services are turning from the most vulnerable segment of the energy space into the most resilient one $rig $val $ne $sdrl $oih

5

12

60

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

$sdrl $oih $xle $rig #eft More #deepwater bullishness from Seadrill: "Drilling rig rates to exceed $500,000 per day sometime soon"

‘We’ll be generating a wall of cash’: Seadrill CEO eyes dividend return with rig dayrates tipped to...

Head of Norwegian deep-water driller says shareholder returns are a focus backed by improving dayrates and contract terms

www.upstreamonline.com

1

8

59

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

10 months

There's some disappointment with $RIG after the earnings, like the post below, and that's understandable- especially if you entered close to $9 (which is why you scale in gradually, right). So probably easier for me to talk "long-term" when my cost basis is in the low $3s, and I

ProvenReserves

@ProvenReserves

10 months

I am not impressed with the results for the 3rd Qt. for Transocean - $RIG. I don't like slipping into an operating loss YoY on the quarter; the lower utilization YoY - 49.4% vs 59.4%. Especially of concern is that the projections for dayrates are starting to slip: Q4 '23 416k vs

11

7

56

4

57

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

2 years

$SLB's CEO Le Peuch: "Deepwater will be the highest operating environment activity growth in 2023" #oott $XLE $OIH $RIG $BORR $TDW $OIS

2

6

55

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

7 months

1/ Digesting $SLB's must-listen earnings call: The international capex cycle continues: This is why you need OFS stocks. Energy security/NOC driven growth isn't bullish for ShaleCos or #COM plays. Super bullish for OFS though.

2

7

53

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

2 years

More good news from $RIG: "The estimated backlog of $392 million excludes a mobilization fee of 90 times the contract dayrate." That is a $38m mobilization pmt on top of the $430k dayrate 😮 $OIH $IEZ $XLE #oott

Transocean in $400 million-plus ultra-deepwater drillship deal

Brazil-bound unit had been idle for more than a year

www.upstreamonline.com

0

5

54

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

$RIG Transocean Equinox has found work in Australia; based on the report, the #dayrate comes to $457,000 👏 It's in addition to mobilization fees but Norway to Australia journey ain't short $oih $xle $ne $val

‘Major’ operator books Transocean’s idle rig for work off Australia

Transocean has secured a new contract in Australia for a semi-submersible rig, which has been in idle mode since October 2022.

www.offshore-energy.biz

1

6

52

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

8 months

First time in Las Palmas and I didn't realize it was an open-air rig museum. From L to R: 1. $NE's stacked Pacific Meltem & Scirocco 2. $VAL's DS-7, supposedly being re-activated 3. DS-11, stacked 4. $NE's Faye Kozack - I assume just enjoying the "white space" No $RIG's.

10

1

52

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

2 years

Of the remaining 17 cold stacked ultra-deepwater drillships reported by Woodmac, 9 are Transocean rigs. Statistically, any new re-activations in 2023 should involve $RIG drillships $VAL $NE $XLE $OIH #oott

3

13

51

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

Was that a jab at Valaris? lol $rig $val $oih

3

51

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

7 months

IMHO the $RIG selloff isn't about RIG as the entire $XLE/ $OIH sector including giants like $XOM and $SLB is getting pummeled. RIG is simply higher beta. I took a look just now at RIG's credit spreads YTD: 1) 7.45% 15-Apr-27 unsecured notes OAS tightened by 65 bps 2) 7.00%

Ultradeep

@Ultradeep3

7 months

Note that pre-covid $RIG traded up to ~$7 before collapsing to a low of ~60c during 2020 on covid/fraudulent Whitebox litigation. History will repeat. Also $RIG trades at a consensus 2024 EBITDA multiple of 8x compared to $VAL at 9x so I have become confused about valuation.

13

2

62

3

4

45

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

5 months

$xle $oih $rig $val $ne $sdrl $borr Offshore drilling market stats courtesy of DNB; the tightest segments are: HE 6G semis - 100% marketed utilization 7G drillships - 92% Jack-ups newer than 2010 - 96% (95% for 2000-2009 JUs)

2

45

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

9 months

$borr $ddril.ol $ne $nol.ol $odl.ol $shllf $sdrl $rig $val $oih Floater rig demand-supply bridge from Arctic Securities' mildly bearish "prolonged mid-cycle"/"roll over risk" report (couple weeks dated but probably still relevant). Looks they see 2025 supporting 160 rigs

4

3

45

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

9 months

*U.S. RIG TRENDS AND SHALE PRODUCTIVITY* Two years ago commentators were negative on OFS because E&P capital discipline would leave services with little pricing power. Well, we saw how "capital discipline" went, especially among private E&Ps. However and ironically, the OFS

4

7

44

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

9 months

Valuations in the offshore drilling group aren't really that disparate. From high to low, EV/est. 2025 EBITDA: $RIG - 6.8x $BORR - 4.8x $NE - 4.7x $VAL - 4.5x $SDRL.OL - 4.4x $DO - 4.4x $DDRIL.OL - 2.1x Most are in a tight 4-5x range. Transocean is an outlier on the upper

10

4

43

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

2 years

Goldman sees $115 Brent: "Supply challenges are structural, based on years of underinvestment. While weakness may persist from factors such as higher real rates, USD strength, and recessionary concerns, longer-term physical tightness will not be easily resolved." #oott #oil

2

10

38

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

8 months

$oih $xle $nbr $esi.to $rig $borr S&P's Upstream Insights updates its capex forecast; 2023-2027 CAGR: onshore +1% offshore + 7.2% This implies offshore +40% in 5 years; also for 1% revenue growth, EBITDA will prob grow 1.5% due to operating leverage.

2

3

37

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

7 months

1/ $HAL following $SLB with EPS beat and divvy increase. Nice articulation of the services thesis: a) the world needs more oil + b) rising service intensity = more services needed to produce the same amount of oil

1

6

35

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

6 months

$RIG's 7.45% April 2027 notes, which I watch the most as they are in my portfolio, have been doing well this week so I took a look at all other non-convertible debt too. I have layered on top of the debt schedule the bid-ask midpoint as of today (note the quotes may vary a bit

4

2

33

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

7 months

$BORR's volatility won't hint at it, but in theory jack-ups demand is more robust than the demand for floaters and has seen smaller drawdowns: One reason for the divergence has been the different customer mix. NOCs, which have more steady capex plans, have been increasing their

1

4

33

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

5 months

$RIG announcing new $1.5b private debt placement and getting corporate family rating upgrade from Moody's: "Moody's Ratings expects Transocean to maintain adequate liquidity" 😂 Dk the pricing but the new '29/'31 notes will replace '25/'27 debt = stretching maturities 👍

2

4

33

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

Here we go 👏

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

Nice job $pbr $ewz 🇧🇷 Now please hire more $rig drillships😀

0

10

1

2

33

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

1/ Good to also see $RIG being more specific on the stacked rigs: "With 12 total cold stacked assets, we have the most operational leverage within our peer group and significant upside potential in a rising market, particularly given the quality of our assets"

1

8

33

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

11 months

$ewz Good writeup on #Brazil . I believe the 2020s will be about EMs + commodities not AI. Source: Moody's Capital Mkts Research

2

4

32

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

7 months

Permian well productivity trends, via Commodity Insights. Productivity is rolling over, at least when normalized for lateral length. $oih $xop

1

13

32

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

9 months

$NBR $ESI.TO $PD.TO $PTEN $HP $OIH The trend toward longer horizontal wells in U.S. shale may be a partial explanation for why U.S. production has seemingly exceeded expectations despite lower rig counts. However, Helmerich & Payne mentioned that each rig is now also drilling

2

4

32

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

10 months

$xle $xop $oih #oil #copper One reason the macro picture (and particularly commodities demand) is so blurry is that the world's major economies are so out of phase with each other. Whatever narrative you believe in, you can find data points to support it.

3

5

32

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

8 months

$ec $xle Short Ecopetrol note based on a couple insights I saw in some recent research. The first part is the forecasted production profile from S&P Commodity Insights: $EC should see a slight increase in 2024 production to 725-730 kboe/d, up from 720 kboe/d in 2023. However,

1

4

31

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

9 months

With all #DeepWater bullishness in my feed, it was quite a shocker to see retail dumped drillers last month (S&P's capital flows analysis): At the end of the day, I guess the big bad "white space" did scare away folks 🤷‍♂️ Noteworthy though, institutional investors bought quite a

4

5

30

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

Just wanted to clarify that Transocean's registration filing announced today relates to insider Perestroika's exercise of its conversion option under the '27 exchangeable bonds back in April. This is old news and the dilution had already happened $rig

4

7

29

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

11 months

Borr Drilling has also uploaded a new presentation. Not much new content but there's a good chart visualizing fleet age for the JU players. You could maybe say $BORR is the $RIG of jack-ups 😉

1

2

28

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

$DO says will be "disciplined" about reactivating the stacked Onyx or purchasing a stranded newbuild. Macro view agrees with $rig $ne $val and good to know they track subsea tree orders as leading indicator. Need to pay more attention to $fti 👍

2

28

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

As for $BORR itself, once all contracts rerate, $750m EBITDA/y could be within reach: 24 rigs x 175k/d rate x 365 days x 95% util x 50% EBITDA margin = $728m Current EV is only 4x that; also debt: mkt cap is 50:50 so there's opportunity for $RIG-like torque to unfold DYODD

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

$BORR With all the excitement about deepwater, don't forget about shallow water drilling either; the JUs orderbook is at 20 year lows and delivery times are 3+ years

1

3

25

2

5

28

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

So $100 million for 200 days for $SFL's Hercules rig = $500,000 dayrate, right? Round numbers make math easy😂 Hercules having to do a Canada-Namibia-Canada roundtrip also speaks to market tightness $rig $ne $val $oih

Semi-sub rig bags another drilling assignment off Canada

Equinor has booked a rig, owned by SFL Corporation (SFL) and managed by Odfjell Drilling, for a drilling campaign off Canada.

www.offshore-energy.biz

2

28

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

7 months

So instead of making the CTAs "ouch", the Saudis ouched the oilfield services sector: Saipem - 12% $SLB - 10% $BORR - 11% $VAL -8% $NBR - 5% Wow.

0

1

27

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

Finally made it to $RIG's transcript: "We believe that as a result, day rates will continue to trend upward, especially for the higher specification ultra-deep water. In fact, by the end of the year, we expect leading-edge rates to exceed $500,000 per day"🙏 $oih $val $ne

0

7

28

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

5 months

$oih $rig $val $ne $do $sdrl $odl.ol $ddril.ol Offshore drilling makes sense as a value investment even without 500k+ dayrates per street analyst Eddie Kim. Let's hope he truly believes that and Barclays isn't just making a play for some underwriting fees from these guys.

1

2

25

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

So $RIG backlog without options is now $9.2b. Sequentially this is +$1.2b but YoY from last July it's +$3.0b > TTM revenue of $2.6b. It's a pity Deepwater Titan is stuck at 455k/day until Mar. 2028 but in bull cycles old rigs put to work last end up getting the highest rates🤷‍♂️

2

4

24

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

10 months

The pricing on $BORR's notes is out: 2028 tranche - 10%/97.75 2030 tranche - 10.375%/97.00 It's a lot of interest (~$150m p.a.) but stretching out the maturities and dealing with fewer lenders is a good thing. Also 5% of the ~11% yields is just the risk-free rate. For

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

10 months

Moody's rated $BORR's proposed $1.5b notes B3 (B-) while S&P is mulling BB- but preliminary. Both cite the industry strength but S&P also sees less "energy transition risk" in shallow water due to shorter payback times. Their words, not mine. BB- would be huge, let's see.

2

11

2

23

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

8 months

$RIG's capital markets day deck is up, a few nice slides: Meanwhile BofA "goes Pareto" on the company and cuts PT to $5.5, down from $6.0 🤷‍♂️

1

4

26

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

$xle From BofA: Oil up but MbS no longer wants to buy U.S. debt; one more datapoint showing why you need to own hard assets for the 2020s.

0

5

25

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

$oih $xle $slb $bkr $ois $rig $borr We've heard much talk lately about the reversal in U.S. rig counts and #OFS stocks have retracted quite a bit. However, the growth in the international rig count (land + offshore) remains uninterrupted: (1/7)

1

5

26

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

$oih $rig $borr $slb One pillar of the #offshore thesis is that shipyards, backlogged with #LNG carriers, can't build new rigs or OSVs. I put this chart together based on S&P's latest LNG shipping database. With an active fleet of 750, there are 309 (!!) carriers on order.

1

4

27

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

9 months

$borr $rig $do $oih Borr Drilling: "No white space in the jack-up space" 😂

1

2

25

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

8 months

According to this old Norwegian research paper, the "magic utilization number" when dayrates in offshore rig markets go to the moon is 98%: Obviously we're not there yet. The study uses a jack-ups dataset but extrapolates broader. Corollary: The

0

4

24

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

3 months

OFS multiples via RBC. "Outliers" with low P/tangible BV: $esi.to 0.3x $nbr 0.5x $pd.to 0.9x $cfw.to 0.6x $step.to 0.8x All free cash flowing companies. Assets already went through impairments especially 2020. Complete market disregard for onshore energy services.

4

8

33

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

2 years

$RIG is apparently now a "growth" stock 😂

2

25

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

9 months

Frac spreads now +14% from their recent bottom and continue closing the gap to 2022 $lbrt $pump $acdc $cfw.to $step.to $oih

0

4

26

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

Well 🇳🇴, you had plenty of time to make up your mind and lock in some long-term contracts while the #rig market was still soft; now it's become you snooze, you lose🤷‍♂️ $eqnr $rig $val $ne $oih #eft

Norway losing more offshore drilling rigs to overseas exploration hotspots

Number of active semi-submersibles is at the lowest level in many years just when rigs are needed

www.upstreamonline.com

0

6

25

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

$BORR With all the excitement about deepwater, don't forget about shallow water drilling either; the JUs orderbook is at 20 year lows and delivery times are 3+ years

1

3

25

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

6 months

In contrast to Allan Gray, one of the largest institutional $RIG buyers in Q4 appears to have been Citadel. Their record also looks more rational. They seem to have been buying from late 2020 into 2022, then scaling down do almost zero by Q3' 23 and then buying again in Q4:

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

6 months

Based on 13-F filings, the biggest $RIG seller in Q4 was Orbis Allan Gray, a South African asset manager. They also sold $BORR but bought $VAL $NE $DO: Based on the limited 13-F info, I'm not sure they made money on their RIG trade: The 2017-2019 was at best a wash. More

2

0

12

2

5

25

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

6 months

$borr $shllf $oih Longer historical perspective on real JU rates and utilizations and the non-linear relationship between the two when utilization gets to the high 90s. This is the definition of "asymmetric opportunity" par excellence - and same for the floaters too btw.

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

8 months

According to this old Norwegian research paper, the "magic utilization number" when dayrates in offshore rig markets go to the moon is 98%: Obviously we're not there yet. The study uses a jack-ups dataset but extrapolates broader. Corollary: The

0

4

24

0

2

25

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

Much #deepwater bullishness from $SLB's earnings too: - global FIDs +90% from 2016-2019 - $200b to deepwater next 3 years $oih $rig $borr $ois $xle

1

3

23

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

Got backlog? With 2.5x book-to-bill ratio $FTI's Subsea segment offers another nice data point for the offshore thesis $oih

0

3

23

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

6 months

Energy services market outlook from Spears & Assoc: 23:10 Oilfield services outlook: - Global rig count down -1% in 2024 but equipment and service spend up +7% - International > Canada > US growth 27:40 US rig count and frac spreads: - average 2024

Drilling & Production Outlook 3/1

null

www.youtube.com

0

4

24

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

4 months

$xle $xop $oih Barclays also in the "plateauing drilling efficiency" camp. More rigs/more production maybe yes but further rig-less production growth seems no.

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

5 months

*US land rig breakdown/trends* 🧵 1/ While gas rigs are still falling, big add last week +20 in private oil rigs after several weeks of declines. Smaller add from large publics. Enverus data different from $BKR. From the $OIH perspective, $NBR has added +2.

1

4

13

2

4

24

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

2 years

Great chart from $RIG showing that even as #oil drops as percent of the #energy mix, we're still going to need a lot more of it #energytransition

1

2

23

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

9 months

$BORR announcing buyback program today 👏👏 Good sign for the offshore $OIH sector 👍

2

22

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

10 months

$BORR $SHLF $VAL $NE $RIG Fitch rated y'day Borr's '28 notes B with positive commentary: - positive industry trend - high revenue visibility - newer assets cf. Valaris and Shelf - Most clients are NOCs - PEMEX exposure a negative Rating agencies tend to be conservative too!

1

3

23

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

7 months

Let's be honest - the Saudi announcement at face value is NOT bullish for $BORR $NBR or other OFS names with Saudi exposure. Now is $BORR -10% in the pre-market overdone? Likely yes but we'll have to wait and see Aramco's actual capex announcement.

Ruxandra Iordache

@RMIordache

7 months

#SaudiArabia 's Aramco halts plans to increase maximum crude #oil production capacity #OOTT

0

4

3

1

23

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

Even more relevant than oil price for $xle companies may be what they make out of it; post-GFC $xom generated lower returns despite high prices until 2014; there are now signs the oil price to ROCE relationship is reverting to the higher trendline from the pre-GFC era #oott

2

23

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

Besides the rising dayrates, the lengthening of the contract terms is another sign of the ongoing bull market in offshore rigs #oott $xle $oih $rig $borr $ne $val

Rig contract terms continue to lengthen, says Evercore ISI

A total of 16 contracts have been announced in April so far.

www.offshore-mag.com

0

3

21

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

4 months

$lbrt $pump $pten $acdc $hal $oih Frac spreads may be decreasing but the margins per fleet are doing well compared to the pre-pandemic years. One reason is likely consolidation - the top 4 U.S. players control 64% of the fleet vs. 42% back in 2018.

0

1

22

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

10 months

Wow, $BORR appoints as director ex-Goldman's Jeff Currie who just recently retired. Not sure Goldman under Currie had the best macro calls on oil, but I agree with what he says about Middle East jack-ups

2

20

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

7 months

2/ "Offshore" mentioned 35 times on the call (!!) but deepwater vs. shallow water isn't either-or: That is why I own both $RIG and $BORR. The $100 billion FID number for '24/'25 looks consistent with what I saw in a Rystad publication.

2

22

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

7 months

Commodity Insights rates $PBR $EC $YPF highest among NOCs on autonomy from governments; curious that all 3 in #LatAm and 2/3 in Left-run places. All 3 also score above median on technical capability though behind Aramco. Yet the market values them a bit like bottom-rated $PDVSA.

6

5

22

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

As FinTwit is warming up to $RIG, good to see Wall Street is slowly turning bullish too:

2

21

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

5 months

$oih $osx $xle $xop Oilfield services remains the laggard among energy subsectors since the prior cycle topped in 2014. The mean reversion defining most commodities suggests services would be the space where you're most likely to find stocks that may outperform.

2

1

21

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

Nice article/no paywall: "the industry is largely sold out" "marketed utilization for 7th-generation drillships at 95%" "6th-generation drillships have also increased to the low 90%" $oih $rig $borr $val $ne $sdrl

Report: Rig contracting activity begins to lag as available assets dwindle

But May was a busy month, with 40 new contracts issued.

www.offshore-mag.com

0

3

21

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

Was doing research on $lbrt and wanted to put up multiples for the peer group; NTM estimates are from Refinitiv. Top 5 most discounted are $pump $step.to $lbrt $cfw.to $nex with 1-2x ev/ebitda, 3-4x p/e and 1-2x p/cfps. Still think the selloff wasn't justified #oott $xle $oih

4

18

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

Goldman: "Energy's discount to the S&P 500 is close to the largest of the last 30 years" And $XLE is largely $XOM and $CVX which have far higher multiples than the median energy stock! #oott

0

4

20

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

9 months

$CFW.TO $STEP.TO $LBRT $PUMP $PTEN $ACDC $OIH *FRAC UPDATE 11/26/2023* While U.S. land rigs were +3 last week to 600, the frac spread count has been more impressive. Frac spreads are now +15% off the Sep. 1 bottom: The frac spreads to rigs ratio started 2023 below the

1

3

22

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

7 months

@calvinfroedge I've been to both Santiago and Buenos Aires. My 2c Santiago safer/more functional but Buenos Aires more happening. You will rarely get both aspects at once.

2

0

20

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

10 months

Which energy sub-group offers the best investment value right now? Some thoughts below (long post). Overall, the year has been flattish for the sector: $XLE YTD total return +1.8% $OIH, as services benchmark, +10.3% $SPY, so far at +14.9% However, on forward P/E basis, energy

3

4

21

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

Vortexa: draws over last 4 weeks close to 5 mbd. Wait, what?! $xle $xop $oih

1

2

20

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

2 years

1/ Great chart from GS' 2023 outlook visualizing the 2022 drop in #China #oil demand; neither in 2020 nor during the Great Recession did China's demand drop so much; should be a strong tailwind for oil going into 2023 as China reopens #oott #eft #ongt $XLE $XOP $OIH

1

3

20

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

8 months

Jerome "Jack-Up" Powell may have done more for $BORR in a week than 10 jack-up rigs winning 200k/day contracts would; sometimes I wonder why even lose any time on fundamentals 🤷‍♂️

2

0

20

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

10 months

Who would have thought: "The latest evidence of a pivot by oil operators from US shale to offshore appeared Oc.t 16 as the US Energy Information Administration warned that a drop in onshore production is accelerating into November" $oih $rig $borr $ne

US oil drillers to pivot from shale to offshore projects, EIA reports

US Gulf oil production was almost 2 MMbbl/d in July, according to the most recent data available.

www.offshore-mag.com

0

4

19

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

8 months

Couple observations on $RIG's "premium" valuation: (1) it isn't new; (2) it has actually been shrinking since the pandemic; (3) absolute valuations are still down a lot despite tremendous cost inflation. Pareto's analysis doesn't fit with their "hold".

0

2

20

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

Omg, ZH now too pitching #OFS so generalists may finally learn about $BORR or $RIG 👏👏 Buckle up, we're going mainstream! 🚀 $oih $xle #oott

3

2

20

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

8 months

* PRIVATE vs. PUBLIC RIG TRENDS * Based on a rig counting exercise from S&P, private operator horizontal rigs peaked last December at 347. The latest datapoint is 240, or -31% YoY. For comparison Independents + IOCs together are only -8% YoY based on this data. Also

1

2

20

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

10 months

Overall pretty good report from $SLB despite the negative market reaction today: - Revenue +11% YoY - EBITDA + 18% YoY (operating leverage!) - EBITDA margin at 25% now! The $OIH bull market marches on.

1

2

20

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

5 months

Here's another supply-demand forecast for floaters and jack-ups, this one from the MS OFS update. On the floater side, 164 "marketed floaters" in 2024 aligns exactly to what Esgian is showing now for drilling/warm stacked/under SPS rigs. The demand numbers seem low though.

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

9 months

$borr $ddril.ol $ne $nol.ol $odl.ol $shllf $sdrl $rig $val $oih Floater rig demand-supply bridge from Arctic Securities' mildly bearish "prolonged mid-cycle"/"roll over risk" report (couple weeks dated but probably still relevant). Looks they see 2025 supporting 160 rigs

4

3

45

1

20

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

$oih $rig $ne $val No dayrate reported but the long, 5-year contract for the 7 Gen Evolution is indicative of a bull market. Of its 7 rigs, Stena now only has the Stena Spey semi available (from August) and that asset is from 1983.

Shell takes Stena Drilling’s newest drillship for work in Gulf of Mexico

Stena Drilling has secured a new drilling contract with Shell’s subsidiary – Shell Offshore – for operations in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.

www.offshore-energy.biz

1

4

19

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

9 months

After its recent bullish call on $DO, Capital One Financial initiates $RIG coverage with $8 PT. The average street target now sits at $8.54 per Refinitiv.

1

2

19

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

5 months

Great post from Tommy as usual and thank you for helping visualize the real "white space" 😂 Yet most Twitter thinks the technical specs of the $VAL and $NE fleet are "no worse" than $RIG. Puts the "cheap" vs "expensive" argument into a different perspective.

Tommy Deepwater

@TommyDeepwater

5 months

$RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $DO $ODL.OL $TDW $OIH Deepwater Floating Rig Cheat Sheet. Oversimplified summary of deepwater rig fleets. Specifications generally matter more than age on deepwater floaters. (1) RIG vs VAL vs NE vs SDRL: RIG is deepwater focused with unique exposure to

20

28

240

1

2

18

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

$oih stocks ripping today 👏

2

1

19

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

1 year

Refinitiv Oil Research: Russian seaborne exports at 4.32 million bpd in June, down from 5.07 million bpd in May $xle #oott

Russian drama little immediate threat to crude oil, but adds to risks

The extraordinary events in Russia this weekend made for dramatic headlines and the ramifications are likely far from over, but the immediate impact on global crude oil markets is likely to be...

www.reuters.com

1

2

19

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

10 months

Transocean Note 7.45% 04/15/2027 coupon paid ✅ Approx. 14% yield on my cost - who says $RIG doesn't generate income 😊

0

1

19

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

4 months

Like the analysts, $HAL also expecting strong '25 growth in NAM. Further emphasizing the "fleet attrition" point we've also heard from the pressure pumpers and others.

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

4 months

$LBRT $PUMP $PTEN $NBR $OIH BofA expects onshore OFS activity to turn around in 2025 on "LNG" and to prevent U.S. oil production from falling. Key assumption = oil in $75-$90 range. If so, I would expect onshore services stock prices to lead by ~6 months.

0

3

17

2

5

19

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

10 months

Despite the U.S. #deepwater GOM being a very mature basin, S&P Commodity Insights sees it producing "into the latter part of the century". Shale will be long gone by then. This means the demand for offshore services $OIH also has a long runway ahead.

0

3

19

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

6 months

@MugsLuck It is the underlined guys. I would be happier if they were already converted. I think having them around drives some bad optics: 1. Worse D/E ratio, the debt could be 10% less 2. They are also hedged by shorting the equity which drives the high short interest that also makes

3

1

17

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

7 months

$xle $xop $oih Aramco's CEO at Davos: - oil demand at 104 million bbl/d in '24 - spare capacity ~ 3.5% - "Good growth and demand is very healthy in China" Yes, he's talking his book but similar messaging from other actors.

Aramco CEO predicts tighter oil markets, sees Red Sea risks

DAVOS: Global oil markets will cope with Red Sea disruptions in the short run, although prolonged attacks by the Houthis on ships would lead to a shortage of tankers due to longer voyages and a

www.arabnews.com

0

2

17

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

9 months

$BORR earnings are out. I don't put much importance on the $0.00 vs. $0.07 miss. FY'24 EBITDA guidance $500-$550m = 6x EV multiple Average Q3 dayrate $132k cf. implied dayrate in backlog of $161k = the re-rating continues AIG adds more shares Wall St targets +50% upside

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

10 months

$BORR $SHLF $VAL $NE $RIG Fitch rated y'day Borr's '28 notes B with positive commentary: - positive industry trend - high revenue visibility - newer assets cf. Valaris and Shelf - Most clients are NOCs - PEMEX exposure a negative Rating agencies tend to be conservative too!

1

3

23

1

2

17

The Energy Realist

@_EnergyRealist

8 months

$oih $rig $ne $val $sdrl $borr Retail sold drillships again in November. What's up people? 😲 Meanwhile institutions bought though less MoM. More noteworthy that institutions did so as they dumped other energy. Conclusion: Institutional guys don't read Pareto 😂

1

2

18