Deputy national editor for
@POLITICO
/
@politicofl
. Nothing you say will upset me more than the Mets. DMs open, email me at zmontellaro(at)politico(dot)com
Batista cutting an ad for Joe Biden was not on my 2020 bingo card. The crossover between professional wrestling and politics is honestly wild and pretty expansive
I mean this totally non-sarcastically: AOC's stream with a lot of super prominent streamers is probably going to be the single-largest event to reach young voters. Soooo many people tuned in. Probably going to be lost in the general internet illiteracy, but it was a huge stream
.
@AOC
raised a big $1.2 million in the second quarter. She'll probably be the highest fundraising House Democrat this quarter (outside of leadership), which is especially remarkable considering a whopping 84 percent is from small donors
New CBS News/YouGov polls (count for the Jan debate)
Iowa
Sanders 23%
Biden 23%
Buttigieg 23%
Warren 16%
Klobuchar 7%
Everyone else at or below 3 percent
N.H.
Sanders 27%
Biden 25%
Warren 18%
Buttigieg 13%
Klobuchar 7%
Everyone else at or below 3 percent
New:
@AndrewYang
is suing the New York board of elections over the effectively-canceled state presidential primary, arguing that canceling it disenfranchises voters and could also suppress turnout for downballot races
NEW:
@AndrewYang
's campaign raised $750,000 on Saturday, his largest single-day haul to date. What's most interesting about it: The big haul wasn't tied to a typical major fundraising moment, like a debate or end-of-quarter push
Wish I had the confidence of the many Election Twitter teens who have a living memory of two (maybe three) federal elections but tweet like they staffed McGovern
Michigan rejected these ballots because the voter died after casting their ballot but before Election Day. Right in the release from the secretary of state's office
And here's Andrew Yang's Q4 numbers: $16.5 million, with a cumulative 400,000 donors and 1 million contributions. This'll likely land him in fifth place in Q4 fundraising, and represents a BIG improvement over Q3. He's got the money to run for a while
New Quinnipiac University NATIONAL poll (counts for the December debate)
Biden 29%
Sanders 17%
Warren 15%
Buttigieg 9%
Bloomberg 5%
Yang 4%
Everyone else at or below 3 percent
Since Mitch McConnell announced that there would be a vote in the Senate on whomever the president nominates for the Supreme Court, over $1 million has been donated through ActBlue, if you're curious how Democratic donors are feeling
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell vowed President Donald Trump’s nominee to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court will be put to the Senate floor for a vote — setting off a titanic political clash over the high court
A guy in a new Larry Elder California recall ad is really working through some stuff. He says Gavin Newsom reminds "me of the guy in high school who took my girlfriend, then went on to the next girl" (Ad captured by our friends at
@Ad_Impact
)
The debate ramifications:
@AndrewYang
has now QUALIFIED for the Feb. 7 debate in New Hampshire. After missing out on the January debate stage, he will make his return
Trump said he believes there's a lot of cheating with mail-in voting and that people need to show up in person, with an ID. But that's baseless. 33 states already have some form of mail-in absentee voting for all. And no demonstrated, widespread fraud
The moment we've all been waiting for: It is now 12:00 a.m. on Aug. 21, and it appears that Kanye West has missed his first FEC filing deadline. Say it ain't so!
New Quinnipiac NATIONAL poll (counts for the November debate)
Warren 29%
Biden 26%
Sanders 16%
Buttigieg 4%
Harris 3%
Yang 3%
Everyone else at or below 2 percent
Another candidate gets airwave support in New Hampshire: MATHPAC, a super PAC that backs (you guessed it) Andrew Yang, dropped about $161,000 on ads starting on Feb. 7.
@Ad_Analytics
captured the creative today, a positive spot that argues Yang is the best matchup vs Trump
Trump's fundraising operation sent an email signed this morning by Blake Masters, the Arizona Republican Senate candidate. But the default split is ... absolutely brutal, with 99 percent of it going to Trump and 1 percent to Masters
BREAKING:
@TomSteyer
has QUALIFIED for the January debate with a day to go until the deadline, off an apparent surge in Fox News polls in South Carolina and Nevada
Republicans who worked to undercut or overturn Biden's victory are now running for secretary of state, meaning politicians who have taken steps to undermine faith in the American democratic system could soon be the ones running it. My latest
Baseball mascots aimlessly wandering empty ballparks while trying to interact with cardboard cutouts of fans is arguably the most dystopian part of this pandemic
Biden is suspending TV ads tomorrow, keeping with a tradition of stopping them on the anniversary of the 9/11 terror attacks. I asked both campaigns their plans a bit past noon today, haven't heard back from Trump (both Trump and Clinton did so in 2016)
BREAKING: Ballots are not going to be tossed. U.S. District judge just announced that he is going to rule that the plaintiffs don't have standing, but said that if he believed they did, he still wouldn't have granted the injunction
We're about an hour out from an emergency hearing in a federal district court on a Republican effort to get 125,000+ ballots in Texas tossed out. The (GOP-dominated) state Supreme Court rejected a similar case over the weekend. More with
@joshgerstein
House Foreign Affairs Chairman Eliot Engel warns his colleagues after losing his congressional seat: It is "very dangerous" to engage in intraparty primary fights
This is a first: A couple weeks ago, I reported on a phantom super PAC, Americans for Progressive Action USA, that reported spending millions but had inconsistencies (). They just filed a new report, check out the refunds memos
What I think is the most interesting detail from
@HCTrudo
's story: Yang's donor numbers! The campaign told her that they have nearly 400,000 individual donors and expects to post a fourth quarter haul of at least $12.5 million. That's BIG
NEW:
@AndrewYang
raised $10 million in the third quarter, his campaign tells me, with over $6 million in the bank. He's just the sixth Democratic hopeful to have a quarter that breaks eight figures
Looks like
@AndrewYang
is going up with his first television ad of the cycle.
@Ad_Analytics
tracks over $630,000 in reservations from his campaign in Iowa, starting tomorrow and running through Nov. 14
Interesting:
@KamalaHarris
and the DNC formed a joint fundraising committee earlier today, per FEC records. This is something you usually only see from the party's nominee, and they're typically targeted toward donors who can cut six-figure checks!
I have now seen all nine of the Fast & Furious movies in a little over two months (including Hobbs and Shaw,
@TheRock
is a true joy) and I am completely prepared to declare this the greatest movie franchise of all time
I just started the first Fast and Furious movie for the first time and I don't know how they go from the first scene where people are literally stealing a truck full of TVs with built-in VHS players to
@TheRock
punching a missile in the newest movie but I'm ready for this journey
.
@Scholten4Iowa
, who is challenging
@SteveKingIA
in
#IA04
, has raised over $641,000 in the past two days alone. His campaign is going to launch a big TV blitz
New South Carolina Quinnipiac poll (Counts for the December debate)
Biden 33%
Warren 13%
Sanders 11%
Buttigieg 6%
Steyer 5%
Yang 4%
Everyone else at or below 3 percent
As we see first alignment numbers from some precincts come in, please don't read too much into them! Precincts can be idiosyncratic and weird, one precinct could caucus totally differently from its neighbor. So don't freak out if you see so-and-so isn't viable in ONE precinct!
We have the thresholds for the Feb. 7 debate, per
@kendallkarson
Option A: Get at least 1 delegate out of Iowa
Option B: 5 percent in 4 polls (or 7 percent in 2 early states), and 225k donors. Polling window is Dec. 13-Feb. 6; Iowa polls are excluded
Both
@BernieSanders
&
@ewarren
said they're boycotting next week's debate bc they won't cross
@UnitedHere11
's picket line. The union represents food service workers on LMU's campus, who are in a contract dispute with Sodexo. Some recent
@LALoyolan
coverage
This is INCREDIBLY high. Also consider that Texas already has fairly strict rules for who can vote via the mail — most Texans can't — so this number of rejections is hitting groups of people who are probably more likely to have problems getting to the polls in-person
Breaking AP exclusive: AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — AP review shows Texas rejected about 13% of mail ballots, nearly 23,000 total, in first election under new voting law.
#txlege
Our latest:
New Quinnipiac NEW HAMPSHIRE poll (counts for the November and December debate)
Biden 20%
Warren 16%
Buttigieg 15%
Sanders 14%
Gabbard 6%
Yang 4%
Klobuchar 3%
Steyer 3%
Allies of Adam Kinzinger are launching an effort to recruit candidates to run for office, with a focus on local election clerks and volunteers who work the polls. Comes as Trumpworld increasingly wins primaries for election positions. Scoop from me
Sanders raised an eye-popping $34.5 million in the final quarter of 2019, per
@hollyotterbein
. That's the best quarter for any Democratic hopeful so far. And what I think is the most important number: The campaign said "more than 99.9%" have not maxed out
NEW: The DNC announced the new thresholds for the January debate. Candidates need four polls at 5 percent (or 7 percent in two early-state polls) AND 225,000 unique donors (with 1,000 in 20 different states). Polls must be released between Nov. 14-Jan. 10
.
@AndrewYang
's nearly $10 million fundraising quarter is more than just a flashy number. It means a bigger staff, more field offices and voter data — and the potential runway to run into the early states.
@EugeneDaniels2
's and my latest story
.
@AndrewYang
's campaign tells me that they've raised more than $120,000 since he promised to give away $120,000 as a pilot for his universal basic income program, in case you're curious
Nothing official yet, but the famed DMR/CNN/Mediacom poll from Selzer & Co. could be landing next week. Our early state polling drought will hopefully be coming to an end soon
Holy cow:
@BernieSanders
' campaign announced he raised more than $4 million from about 150,000 people in the 12 hours since he launched his campaign. An important detail: The campaign already signed up $500,000 worth of donations that will reoccur every month
NEWS: The THRESHOLDS for the Feb. 19 debate are here and they are drastically different. Candidates need 10 percent in four polls (or 12 percent in two NV/SC polls) OR a delegate to the national convention out of Iowa or N.H. The donor threshold is GONE
We got a Monmouth national poll coming tomorrow, which counts toward qualifying for the December debate. If Gabbard or Yang hit 4 percent, they're in the Dec. 19 debate
The New York state Democratic presidential primary has been canceled. The Democratic commissioners on
@NYSBOE
just agreed that Sanders has stopped campaigning, so they're striking him from the ballot because they want to minimize folks voting in the pandemic
I've been reporting at the conference for the last two days and there are election officials of all political stripes here. A lot of the panels are nothing particularly new — but if you're curious what they said it aired on C-SPAN and YouTube!
BREAKING: Ohio's governor, secretary of state and lieutenant governor are recommending that Tues' primary election be postponed. They said they do not have the power to unilaterally do so, and that it is in the hands of the courts. Our story will update
New Suffolk/USA Today NATIONAL poll (counts for both the November and December debates)
Biden 26%
Warren 17%
Sanders 13%
Buttigieg 10%
Gabbard 4%
Yang 3%
Harris 3%
Everyone else at or below 2 percent
FYI
#YangGang
most polls likely didn’t run over the holidays. So we are probably looking at Friday for some new polls to resume coming out. Rest and relax until then. 😀👍
NEW: All seven of the candidates who are slated to be in next week's debate, plus Booker and Castro, signed on to a letter urging the DNC to restore the either-or debate qualifying pathways. But the DNC isn't biting
@AlxThomp
and
@ec_schneider
report
COMING TOMORROW – NEW HAMPSHIRE: Our third
#2020Dem
poll of likely Granite State primary voters on the Democratic presidential field.
#NewHampshirePrimary
#FITN
An interesting quirk: Right now, Andrew Yang has actually outspent Joe Biden on all advertising (which includes TV, radio and digital), per
@Ad_Analytics
. Yang has spent a bit over $11 million, while Biden is at is at $10.7 million — but Biden has outspent Yang on digital!
New Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom IOWA poll (counts for the Jan debate)
Sanders 20%
Warren 17%
Buttigieg 16%
Biden 15%
Klobuchar 6%
Yang 5%
Everyone else at or below 4 percent
Is everyone on this godforsaken website forgetting when Kid Rock "ran" for the Senate to promote an album? Can we chill for even a moment about Kanye until he does literally anything that indicates this isn't a public relations stunt
NEW: We have the thresholds for the December primary debate (hosted by POLITICO/PBS), and they could endanger all but the top five candidates. Candidates need 4 percent in four DNC-approved polls (or 6 percent in two early-state polls) AND 200,000 donors
This is obviously Trump's fault, but it is also the fault of congressional Republicans who entertained and stoked his bogus fraud claims up to and through today
New Quinnipiac University national poll (counts for the November debate)
Warren 28%
Biden 21%
Sanders 15%
Buttigieg 10%
Harris 5%
Klobuchar 3%
Everyone else at or below 2 percent
NEW: Troy Price, the chair of the Iowa Democratic Party, has submitted his resignation letter. It'll be effective as of Saturday, when an interim chair is elected. More to come with
@natashakorecki
If your grandma is an 81-year-old Electoral College elector for Michigan, you should know she is very proud of you and loved talking about you in an interview 😭
We are one week away from the qualifying deadline for the December debate, and
@AndrewYang
and
@TulsiGabbard
are teetering on a knife's edge. Can they both pick up that elusive fourth poll in time? My latest on debate qualifications, with seven days to go
Buttigieg is the first one out of the gate with Q4 fundraising numbers, raising a big $24.7 million. 733,000 individual donors for the year, per
@ec_schneider
New: We have the threshold for the March 15 debate. Candidates must earn 20 percent of pledged delegates awarded thus far — meaning we will almost assuredly have a Biden vs. Sanders showdown
The debate ramifications:
@TomSteyer
has now HIT the POLLING THRESHOLD. He still needs the donors, but his campaign told me on Friday they were on track to do so.
@AndrewYang
gets his third poll, needing just one more to qualify
The debate ramifications:
@TulsiGabbard
now needs one more poll to qualify for the December debate in the next month and change (she still needs donors, too).
@AndrewYang
is also halfway through the polling threshold, and already has the donors
By federal law, ballots have to be sent out to military and overseas voters today. Some states won't because of recently wrapped up/still pending legal battles, but the election is effectively *here* in every state now
Yang is asking the DNC to commission polls in the early states to make up for the lack of qualifying early state polls (we haven't seen one since November!). I think you can put this pretty safely in the "not gonna happen" column, though
🚨Scoop:
@AndrewYang
sent a letter to
@DNC
Chairman
@TomPerez
asking him to commission 4 early-state polls before Jan. 10 to encourage more diversity at the next debate.