12z Euro with an absolute 💣of a system 1st week of February...problem is NO cold air in sight...all rain. How pathetic! It's peak winter from a climatological standpoint and still can't get snow. Might be the new norm? If this was snow, would be a BEAST. Another wasted opp.
Picture perfect...📸
This one deserves to go in the textbooks even if it doesn't happen.
You want to know how we can get an I-95 Blizzard? Well my friends...the 12z GFS is exactly how.
This winter is just becoming so sad...I get all excited for a potential storm 4-5 days out and track it like crazy only to have it vanish a day or two later. Stayed up late for no reason it seems these past few weeks. So much for a good pattern!
Will we ever get something?
And another one for the textbooks...I mean WOW. This thing looks absolutely terrifying...a 960mb BLIZZARD from North Carolina all the way up I-95 to Maine...WOW!!!!!
Simply cannot remember a time in my 21 years where I have gone to bed to moderate to heavy snow falling from a single snowstorm two nights in a row. I live for this kind of stuff. Truly a storm to remember in the nyc metro area. I’m ready for another one!
🚨And the trend continues...welcome to the party 12z EURO. Still early in the game...plenty of time to go! If we can get our system a bit slower coming in and get a full phase, we might be in for something big.
❄️WHAT A HUGE ONE RUN DIFFERENCE FROM THE GFS. CLEAR CAVE TO THE EURO/UKIE/CMC. 12z vs. 18z GFS below (SNOWFALL). CLEAR SHIFT SOUTH...WEAKER STORM...COLDER STORM.
I'd literally laugh so hard if there was a massive NW trend on the Friday/Saturday system starting at 00z tonight.
Very VERY unlikely...but would just be so funny 😂
❄️Yes...I know it's the NAM, but WOW! You want to know how the NYC metro area gets a big time snowstorm? The NAM is exactly how...
For illustrative purposes only and will likely not happen like this, but interesting to note!
Not going to sleep now! This will be a HUGE EURO run! If it holds serve, it would be every model vs. GFS. It's just SO hard to discount GFS given consistency this year. Maybe GFS not good at handling these types of systems as we really haven't had setup like this yet this year?
⚠️Latest run of the GFS model wants to absolutely clobber our area with storm after storm. Bring it on! Lots to track.
Snow map shows our area getting over 30" in the next 16 days! Not a forecast, but certainly some fun times ahead.
❄️Everyone settle down...grab a beer or a white claw if that's what you prefer and just enjoy the snow...still got PLENTY of snow headed our way. We will analyze totals and discuss what went on with the track of the storm once it's all over. Until then....ENJOY!!!
☃️CMC joins the snow train! Trending in the right direction today for our coastal folks. Take a look at the evolution on the latest run of the CMC. Not too excited yet, but something to keep an eye on! If we can get the trough negative a bit quicker and amplify it...
Ugh I don’t want this storm to end for me!!!!! It’s just been such a special storm. Snow started 24 hours ago and it’s been snowing moderately for at least 20 out of the 24 hours and most of it has been extremely heavy....unbelievable....NYC metro special!
00Z UKMET HAS NEARLY 15" OF SNOW IN NYC AT 10:1 RATIO'S...ARE YOU KIDDING ME??? WENT FROM 1.1" AT 12Z TO 15" AT 00Z. WOW!!!!!
REMINDER...THAT'S ONLY 10:1 RATIOS...I COULD SEE 12-15:1 RATIOS GIVEN COLD AIR.
JUST ONE MODEL RUN AND NOT A FORECAST.
Are you ok 12z GFS???
GFS continuing to show a 💣 of a storm off of the east coast around the 1/14-1/15 timeframe.
Doesn't look to be a major threat to the northeast yet, but if this thing shifts west...man oh man...watch out!
🚨CURRENT THINKING:
NYC: 6-12”
PHIL: 3-7”
HARTFORD: 10-20”
BOS: 20-36” iso. 40” with BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
Sharp cutoff to the west. BOS looks primed for this one. Very jealous of them. Enjoy it! Could be a historic blizzard for eastern SNE.
❄️As
@AccuRayno
always says...track the ULL...that'll tell you where you have the potential for a a few inches of snow. Images below are taken from the latest 12z run of the EURO. Things can and will change. Only think I am concerned about here is the lack of cold air.
Not trying to be a negative Nancy here, but we keep pushing things another 7 days. Based on the climate we are in...I don't believe this winter will be one to remember anywhere along the east coast. I expect a similar outcome to last winter (hopefully I am wrong).
Not much winter expected next 7 days or so but after that all bets off. If you’re a fan of winter you gotta be at least hopeful of an upcoming pattern change. However no guarantees but definitely encouraging sings.
The most interesting thing on the 18z GFS is not the 959mb bomb cyclone next weekend….it’s this….Tuesday night. Keep an eye on it. It’s got a much better chance right now at 111 hours than the eye candy next weekend.
Not sure why I feel this way, but I think there's going to be a lot of surprises with this storm. Some people will get a lot more than forecasted and some a lot less...
❄️Obviously take with a grain of salt as we are still not close enough to the potential event, but wow…todays run of the UKMET and EURO were fascinating and impressive. Sub 970mb low stalling off the coast? INSANITY. Just wish we had a bit more cold air to work with.
I mean it’s still just dumping snow. So nice to be in the jackpot area for two storms in a row now! Reporting 6.5” of snow in Hastings On Hudson, NY as of 11:41 AM.
@NWSNewYorkNY
@StormTeam4NY
Hi res RGEM now has the most south and east of I84. Add a touch north of there for fluff factor…drop totals a bit south for low ratio wet snow. But quite the shift today.
A bit surprised there’s not even a winter storm watch for coastal CT.
Don't give up all hope (yet) snow lovers in the Northeast!
The latest run of the CMC is printing out a fairly snowy picture 144 hours from now. We shall see if this one actually materializes.
@AccuRayno
did say to watch the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe of next week.
I really miss
@crankywxguy
analysis....could really use someone to explain what’s going on with the surface right now vs. what models are showing and how things are actually playing out!
🔎Clear differences between the latest run of the GFS (18z) and EURO (12z). Euro really amplifies the trough...consolidates it and goes boom...GFS progressive and never really consolidates. A drawn out piece of energy. I favor something in the middle at this time.
This storm certainly has a larger precipitation shield than most models projected tbh.....hmmmm......not saying that means anything, but I could see a 5-10” forecast verifying.....stay tuned!
Let's not forget about our Thursday system (minor). Most models have brought the snow a bit further to the north and west and have actually trended slightly stronger with the wave.
Previous GFS run on the left...latest on the right!
Best northeast snowstorms often come in patterns that aren’t conductive for east coast snows…remember we have a lot of things changing in the atmosphere which often can yield a major storm! Read northeast snowstorms by Paul J. Kocin!
Pattern is not particularly favorable for an eastern winter storm later next week and yet models continue to show one with varying solutions on track and intensity which of course yields a variety of results. This storm needs to be monitored for snow and ice on the northwest
Absolutely ripping snow right now in Rochester, NY. Visibility must be less than a 1/4 mile! Some of the heaviest stuff we’ve seen all winter and it’s almost April 1st!❄️
@NWSBUFFALO
I am living up in Rochester for school and boy let me tell you...a snowstorm up here is just beautiful...I mean this is truly a classic snowstorm. Must have at least 18" with another 4-6" on the way. Happy I am not on the 95 corridor for once!
I know it’s coming to an end soon and all good things must come to an end (or not lol), but man oh man I’m going to miss this beast....it’s been real. I’ve just been getting pummeled by band after band of heavy snow. Closing in on 19” at this point. ❄️
00z GFS not quite there, but HUGE signs of improvement and definitely a step towards the ECMWF.
That's a fairly significant one run change from the GFS!
As I said earlier....this storm is NOT going to produce widespread 20-30"+ amounts as the models are suggesting. The hardest hit areas could see isolated amounts of that magnitude, but it certainly will not be widespread.