Weatherholic focusing on SNE. Blizzards, Hurricanes, SVX weather . Cowboys, Celtics, UCONN and Yankees. Animal and Nature lover. I stand with Israel ๐ฎ๐ฑ
Um ok ๐๐๐ No these are not all individual storms but instead give an idea where some of the stronger ensemble clusters are. Signals for very active times ahead
Monday-Wednesday look very spicy in the North East. Several pieces of energy combined with plenty of moisture and heat will pose a threat for severe storms. Timing and details tbd but climatology this is the prime time for severe weather events in the North East.
Look at this ICON run. Notice how far off the coast it gets before turning back into N. Carolina giving it plenty of time to refuel into the 950โs then parallels it up the coast just off of SNE Saturday morning as a very formidable low. This worse case scenario still an outlier.
WPC next 7 days large amounts of water on the way. Wednesday more regional wide heavy rain with approaching low and frontal boundary then we wait to see what happens with Debby as far as impacts here in SNE. These numbers may be conservative if Debby has more of an impact ๐ ๐.
Nice look for our first potential NorEaster next weekend. Lots of potential with strong energy from the north and plenty of moisture from the south . Timing is key for phasing the two. Most models and ensembles have this occurring right before it hits the coast. Need to watch
Thatโs a fantastic run for heavy snow in SNE,NYC into Long Island. Cold air stays locked in with a track like that. But long ways to go and it will fluctuate many times .
Ugh end of next week just horrible. These are feel like temps beginning Tuesday. Was hoping a front to the north would move through but thatโs looking more and more unlikely now. Feels like at 8am already around 90 on Thursday,Friday and Saturday morning. ๐คฎ ๐คฎ ๐คฎ
Bigger potential for Friday into Saturday. Love the look again today from the GFS. You can tell me itโs over 5 days out thatโs fine I know but this has big โ potential โ much more than Tuesday . Again follow along if you want if not move along thatโs fine Iโm getting excited.
Although not an important game could be fun to watch at Gillette Stadium when the Pats take on the Jets at 1:00 on Sunday. Same story in New York as the Giants host the Eagles at 4:25
Letโs just say if the many features involved including the remnants of Beryl and the features to the north and east linked up over SNE and portions of the Mid Atlantic next week to say there would be a lot of water would be an understatement.
Update on ** potential ** storm early next week . Euro most aggressive with storm bombing out from a 986 to a 967 cutting into SNE. Donโt focus on track but more importantly the fact that itโs there. Other models show hints of this also. Long ways to go we just watch for trends.
Looking much more promising for coastal SNE/LI/NYC/NJ points south for minor snow event tomorrow morning . Perfect timing enjoy the light fluffy snow in those areas.
If only there was a fresh injection of cold air a trend like this would have snow lover fans glued to the models tonight . ๐๐ปโโ๏ธ๐๐ปโโ๏ธ๐๐ปโโ๏ธ
CSU highlighting a large area in the Mid Atlantic and NE for Wednesday into the evening. Damaging wind would appear to be the biggest threat although cannot completely rule out a few strong to severe storms especially western areas. SPC does not have any โrisksโ as of now.
Talk about disappointing if your in the Great Lakes what looked like the potential for almost blizzard conditions just 24 hours ago to basically nothing as the storm is in pieces and doesnโt fully develop now until itโs approaching New England.
HRDPS which is a very high resolution model showing some crazy rainfall totals upward of almost 6โ especially in western sections of SNE and Lower Hudson Valley. General amounts of 2โ-4โ with isolated 5โ-6โ possible especially if any convection is realized.
Ugh that storm weโve been hoping to kick off winter just went big time cutter on the afternoon Euro. That will not help drag cold air in either that far west. Idk
Looks like we here in the Northeast may have escaped any long term heat waves for the foreseeable future as a few changes now look to suppress most of the heat to the south and west of us.
Latest Debby guidance shows this type of track would mean very heavy rain for SNE Friday into Saturday but most of the damaging winds offshore. There are some outliers and still time for changes but flooding rains may be in the offing for us.
Euro going big time heat for Tuesday and Wednesday. Could be one of those big severe weather days on also as front attempts to approach from the north and acts on plenty of instability in the air. Long ways out but both CFS & GEFS Supercell Composite are showing this possibility
Long range HRRR so donโt get tied into specific placements of storms but this shows their is real POTENTIAL for Sunday based upon still undetermined factors I.e. instability, cloud cover , initial morning showers. We watch trends next day or so .
00z HRRR and RAP. Pretty much in agreement this is a south coastal special . Enjoy itโs been a long couple of winters for you folks. Can there be a surprise or two elsewhere sure but that would be the exception rather than the rule IMO.
WPC rainfall totals through Sunday. Highly dependent on initial front placement for Tuesday/Wed. then for track of Debby Friday/Sat. as these numbers will fluctuate but they seem pretty confident in alot of water this week. If your prone to flooding follow local NWS this week.
SPC for tomorrow shows the increasing potential for severe weather in the North East with all hazards possible including a 5% tornado risk for eastern NY, Western Mass up into Vermont and NH where best dynamics near warm front and shear exist with a few supercells developing.
Can see a couple of different storm tracks as we close out November . Always favor interior and mountain snows but hints this gets metro areas possible also. Enough cold air should be present. We watch
GFS has two substantial systems within the next 10 days . First Saturday then the second next Wednesday into Thanksgiving. Could really foul up travel if system comes together. Euro has similar outcomes as well . Plenty of time to watch.
Even without a direct hit in SNE the potential is there for copious amounts of rain as a stalled front may act on moisture from Debby to produce some big time rainfall totals. This is the 12z GFS which shows that potential later in the week. Still long ways to go but eyes ๐.
Nice look for an impressive storm off the east coast late next weekend. After a stretch of boring weather things about to get amped up starting next weekend and going forward.
Wednesday and Thursday will not be pleasant. Donโt wait to get those ACโs in or repaired. Those are feel like temps with heat and humidity combined. A front will be approaching whether or not it makes it through or washes out will determine how long heat continues.