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jared

@jmelmed23

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Weatherholic focusing on SNE. Blizzards, Hurricanes, SVX weather . Cowboys, Celtics, UCONN and Yankees. Animal and Nature lover. I stand with Israel ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ

Joined November 2011
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
@jmelmed23
jared
6 months
Still seeing some trying to push the winters not done narrative. Howโ€™s that looking now ? ๐Ÿ”ฅ ๐Ÿ”ฅ ๐Ÿ”ฅ
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@jmelmed23
jared
7 months
Thereโ€™s your potential biggie at the end of the week thatโ€™s been talked about . Absolutely not set in stone but the signals are there.
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@jmelmed23
jared
7 months
Just an epic pattern for severe weather, blizzards and flooding . This is not a typical pattern so enjoy !
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@jmelmed23
jared
1 year
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@jmelmed23
jared
11 months
Unreal .
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@jmelmed23
jared
6 days
Absolutely no sign of heat itโ€™s quite amazing how pleasant this August looks to be.
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@jmelmed23
jared
4 months
@il0venostalgia My brother got him for Xmas somehow I got her ๐Ÿคฆ๐Ÿปโ€โ™‚๏ธ
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@jmelmed23
jared
7 months
Thereโ€™s just no way you donโ€™t get some type of big one with this. Winter fans rejoice
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@jmelmed23
jared
12 days
Um ok ๐Ÿ‘€๐Ÿ‘€๐Ÿ‘€ No these are not all individual storms but instead give an idea where some of the stronger ensemble clusters are. Signals for very active times ahead
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@jmelmed23
jared
7 months
12z Euro. Parent low headed towards Great Lakes as usual then transfer to new Low off NJ coast. Feb 13th
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@jmelmed23
jared
7 months
Euro slower, stronger snd colder with impactful snow for most of SNE later Sunday into Monday now. 989mb
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@jmelmed23
jared
7 months
Too bad we donโ€™t live in a world where the Control literally controls the weather. Oh well fun to look at anyways .
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@jmelmed23
jared
4 months
If you thought this weekend is gonna be blah wait till next weekend in the North East. Enjoy Mon-Wednesday this week thatโ€™s all I can say.
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@jmelmed23
jared
7 months
967 mlb off the SNE coast next Wednesday. Yeah we can work with this one . Happy tracking
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@jmelmed23
jared
5 months
This type of post really discredits those that really enjoy discussing and forecasting weather and models. Pure garbage and itโ€™s a shame
@RyanMaue
Ryan Maue
5 months
EURO model update: A massive climate-fueled blizzard is poised to "bomb" New England next week Wed/Thurs with 1-2 feet of snow.
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@jmelmed23
jared
6 months
Each person can come to their own conclusions. ๐Ÿ’๐Ÿปโ€โ™‚๏ธ๐Ÿ’๐Ÿปโ€โ™‚๏ธ๐Ÿ’๐Ÿปโ€โ™‚๏ธ
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@jmelmed23
jared
8 months
Beast . Perfect position just stay like that for 5 more days ๐Ÿ’๐Ÿปโ€โ™‚๏ธ
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@jmelmed23
jared
9 months
Friday Evening GFS โ€œHappy Hourโ€ Edition ๐Ÿบ ๐Ÿบ ๐Ÿบ
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@jmelmed23
jared
8 months
Nice improvement on the overnight EPS. Itโ€™s coming โ„๏ธโ„๏ธโ„๏ธ
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@jmelmed23
jared
1 month
Monday-Wednesday look very spicy in the North East. Several pieces of energy combined with plenty of moisture and heat will pose a threat for severe storms. Timing and details tbd but climatology this is the prime time for severe weather events in the North East.
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@jmelmed23
jared
15 days
Look at this ICON run. Notice how far off the coast it gets before turning back into N. Carolina giving it plenty of time to refuel into the 950โ€™s then parallels it up the coast just off of SNE Saturday morning as a very formidable low. This worse case scenario still an outlier.
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@jmelmed23
jared
2 months
Just a weeee bit of an uptick for Friday.
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@jmelmed23
jared
1 year
Letโ€™s just hope this stays north of the islands good god
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@jmelmed23
jared
15 days
WPC next 7 days large amounts of water on the way. Wednesday more regional wide heavy rain with approaching low and frontal boundary then we wait to see what happens with Debby as far as impacts here in SNE. These numbers may be conservative if Debby has more of an impact ๐Ÿ‘€ ๐Ÿ‘€.
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@jmelmed23
jared
6 months
Euro goes south this run. Interesting trend on afternoon models.
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@jmelmed23
jared
5 months
About that cold and snow coming for the end of the month . Not sure how anyone was buying into that but ok
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@jmelmed23
jared
2 months
CAPE 3500 !!
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@jmelmed23
jared
23 days
Subtropical Monday. Breezy,wet and cooler. Almost a September feel in the air. Enjoy as others to the west will be quite warm.
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@jmelmed23
jared
11 months
Nice look for our first potential NorEaster next weekend. Lots of potential with strong energy from the north and plenty of moisture from the south . Timing is key for phasing the two. Most models and ensembles have this occurring right before it hits the coast. Need to watch
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@jmelmed23
jared
7 months
๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚
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@jmelmed23
jared
2 years
@Super70sSports Heโ€™s on Pluto TV all the time !
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@jmelmed23
jared
7 months
Season to date approximate snowfall meh . Another dud with nothing substantial expected for at least the next 7 days
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@jmelmed23
jared
9 months
Wild GFS run make snow weenies jumping for joy . Long way out but signals are there for very active early December on the EC
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@jmelmed23
jared
8 months
Thatโ€™s a fantastic run for heavy snow in SNE,NYC into Long Island. Cold air stays locked in with a track like that. But long ways to go and it will fluctuate many times .
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@jmelmed23
jared
2 months
Itโ€™s coming ๐Ÿฅต . Next Saturday
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@jmelmed23
jared
9 months
That could be a biggie for someone next week.
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@jmelmed23
jared
2 months
Ugh end of next week just horrible. These are feel like temps beginning Tuesday. Was hoping a front to the north would move through but thatโ€™s looking more and more unlikely now. Feels like at 8am already around 90 on Thursday,Friday and Saturday morning. ๐Ÿคฎ ๐Ÿคฎ ๐Ÿคฎ
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@jmelmed23
jared
7 months
Bigger potential for Friday into Saturday. Love the look again today from the GFS. You can tell me itโ€™s over 5 days out thatโ€™s fine I know but this has big โ€œ potential โ€ much more than Tuesday . Again follow along if you want if not move along thatโ€™s fine Iโ€™m getting excited.
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@jmelmed23
jared
7 months
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@jmelmed23
jared
2 years
@Super70sSports I mean the Carolina Hurricanes and bring them back to Hartford to play in the mall !
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@jmelmed23
jared
6 months
๐Ÿ’ฃ ๐Ÿ’ฃ ๐Ÿ’ฃ
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@jmelmed23
jared
8 months
Although not an important game could be fun to watch at Gillette Stadium when the Pats take on the Jets at 1:00 on Sunday. Same story in New York as the Giants host the Eagles at 4:25
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@jmelmed23
jared
9 months
Exactly why itโ€™s the Happy Hour model ๐Ÿบ๐Ÿบ๐Ÿบdrunk as usual
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@jmelmed23
jared
6 months
Cmon this would be quite awesome going out with a bang late next week from a 967mlb to a 961mlb .
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@jmelmed23
jared
10 months
*** This will NOT happen *** but itโ€™s there for all the snowacane people out there. Enjoy itโ€™ll be gone by this evening
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@jmelmed23
jared
1 year
@_B___S Thereโ€™s millions of adult cats just begging to be adopted out there . One at a time makes a difference. Wonderful
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@jmelmed23
jared
1 month
Letโ€™s just say if the many features involved including the remnants of Beryl and the features to the north and east linked up over SNE and portions of the Mid Atlantic next week to say there would be a lot of water would be an understatement.
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@jmelmed23
jared
16 days
Letโ€™s hope the ICON is having its own happy hour ๐Ÿป
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@jmelmed23
jared
7 months
Update on ** potential ** storm early next week . Euro most aggressive with storm bombing out from a 986 to a 967 cutting into SNE. Donโ€™t focus on track but more importantly the fact that itโ€™s there. Other models show hints of this also. Long ways to go we just watch for trends.
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@jmelmed23
jared
1 year
I donโ€™t care what anybody says if and thatโ€™s a big if this far out where to verify there would be problems. Say what you want
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@jmelmed23
jared
5 months
Yes ! Once we get through that system mid week we crank it up โ˜€๏ธ
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@jmelmed23
jared
8 months
Um
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@jmelmed23
jared
6 months
One quick cold shot behind our small system Friday into the weekend then we Spring. Get those flip flops on stand by.
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@jmelmed23
jared
2 months
Any discrete cells that form tomorrow in this type of environment absolutely will need to be watched.
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@jmelmed23
jared
6 months
Looking much more promising for coastal SNE/LI/NYC/NJ points south for minor snow event tomorrow morning . Perfect timing enjoy the light fluffy snow in those areas.
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@jmelmed23
jared
5 months
Me likes
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@jmelmed23
jared
8 months
If only there was a fresh injection of cold air a trend like this would have snow lover fans glued to the models tonight . ๐Ÿ’๐Ÿปโ€โ™‚๏ธ๐Ÿ’๐Ÿปโ€โ™‚๏ธ๐Ÿ’๐Ÿปโ€โ™‚๏ธ
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@jmelmed23
jared
6 months
Euro last 3 runs . Juiced up
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@jmelmed23
jared
7 months
Iโ€™ll absolutely take this 5 days out . GFS and Euro on board for some type of potential big storm next Friday . Until then we watch trends
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@jmelmed23
jared
9 months
Oof
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@jmelmed23
jared
7 months
Snow weenies in SNE be happy with the 06zEPS run . Better track and HP strength and location .
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@jmelmed23
jared
8 months
Pretty impressive this far out.
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@jmelmed23
jared
6 months
Could very well be the coldest morning until next season . Certainly not definite but gonna be hard to eclipse this going forward
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@jmelmed23
jared
6 months
EPS confirms Op run with tick south huge for you coastal peeps out there.
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@jmelmed23
jared
6 months
CSU highlighting a large area in the Mid Atlantic and NE for Wednesday into the evening. Damaging wind would appear to be the biggest threat although cannot completely rule out a few strong to severe storms especially western areas. SPC does not have any โ€œrisksโ€ as of now.
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@jmelmed23
jared
9 months
Talk about disappointing if your in the Great Lakes what looked like the potential for almost blizzard conditions just 24 hours ago to basically nothing as the storm is in pieces and doesnโ€™t fully develop now until itโ€™s approaching New England.
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@jmelmed23
jared
8 months
HRDPS which is a very high resolution model showing some crazy rainfall totals upward of almost 6โ€ especially in western sections of SNE and Lower Hudson Valley. General amounts of 2โ€-4โ€ with isolated 5โ€-6โ€ possible especially if any convection is realized.
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@jmelmed23
jared
7 months
Ugh that storm weโ€™ve been hoping to kick off winter just went big time cutter on the afternoon Euro. That will not help drag cold air in either that far west. Idk
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@jmelmed23
jared
21 days
Looks like we here in the Northeast may have escaped any long term heat waves for the foreseeable future as a few changes now look to suppress most of the heat to the south and west of us.
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@jmelmed23
jared
2 months
Well that was a bit faster than modeled
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@jmelmed23
jared
14 days
Latest Debby guidance shows this type of track would mean very heavy rain for SNE Friday into Saturday but most of the damaging winds offshore. There are some outliers and still time for changes but flooding rains may be in the offing for us.
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@jmelmed23
jared
7 months
Suppression eh ? Ridiculous
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@jmelmed23
jared
8 months
@jonmachota McCarthy will find a way in the last two minutes to blow it Iโ€™m convinced
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@jmelmed23
jared
2 months
Euro going big time heat for Tuesday and Wednesday. Could be one of those big severe weather days on also as front attempts to approach from the north and acts on plenty of instability in the air. Long ways out but both CFS & GEFS Supercell Composite are showing this possibility
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@jmelmed23
jared
5 months
๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿคฃ๐Ÿ˜‚
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@jmelmed23
jared
10 days
Rare territory โ€ฆ. So far pretty quiet things should ramp up soon though
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@jmelmed23
jared
2 months
๐Ÿคฃ๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿคฃ
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@jmelmed23
jared
2 months
Long range HRRR so donโ€™t get tied into specific placements of storms but this shows their is real POTENTIAL for Sunday based upon still undetermined factors I.e. instability, cloud cover , initial morning showers. We watch trends next day or so .
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@jmelmed23
jared
9 months
Getting those winter vibes for December
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@jmelmed23
jared
6 months
00z HRRR and RAP. Pretty much in agreement this is a south coastal special . Enjoy itโ€™s been a long couple of winters for you folks. Can there be a surprise or two elsewhere sure but that would be the exception rather than the rule IMO.
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@jmelmed23
jared
6 months
12z RGEM โ€ฆ this is actually a very reliable winter model IMO so ๐Ÿ’๐Ÿปโ€โ™‚๏ธ
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@jmelmed23
jared
5 months
Sun and 60 today but 6 years ago at this time it was snowing to beat the band. Nothing like being under one of those for hours .
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@jmelmed23
jared
14 days
WPC rainfall totals through Sunday. Highly dependent on initial front placement for Tuesday/Wed. then for track of Debby Friday/Sat. as these numbers will fluctuate but they seem pretty confident in alot of water this week. If your prone to flooding follow local NWS this week.
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@jmelmed23
jared
5 months
EPS big hit interior and mountains . Stronger and faster transfer than the Op run.
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@jmelmed23
jared
2 months
SPC for tomorrow shows the increasing potential for severe weather in the North East with all hazards possible including a 5% tornado risk for eastern NY, Western Mass up into Vermont and NH where best dynamics near warm front and shear exist with a few supercells developing.
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@jmelmed23
jared
9 months
Can see a couple of different storm tracks as we close out November . Always favor interior and mountain snows but hints this gets metro areas possible also. Enough cold air should be present. We watch
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@jmelmed23
jared
5 months
I canโ€™t imagine anyone even takes this garbage model seriously. Put it out of its misery please .
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@jmelmed23
jared
8 months
I donโ€™t know about everybody else but Iโ€™m looking forward to when the NWS issues this gem !
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@jmelmed23
jared
6 months
Oh boy
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@jmelmed23
jared
6 months
18zGFS crush job for SNE
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@jmelmed23
jared
5 months
This is gonna feel so good especially after this crummy week. Mild and dry for us in the North East. Get those lawnmowers ready .
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@jmelmed23
jared
9 months
GFS has two substantial systems within the next 10 days . First Saturday then the second next Wednesday into Thanksgiving. Could really foul up travel if system comes together. Euro has similar outcomes as well . Plenty of time to watch.
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@jmelmed23
jared
7 months
EOM thereโ€™s your chance .
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@jmelmed23
jared
16 days
Even without a direct hit in SNE the potential is there for copious amounts of rain as a stalled front may act on moisture from Debby to produce some big time rainfall totals. This is the 12z GFS which shows that potential later in the week. Still long ways to go but eyes ๐Ÿ‘€.
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@jmelmed23
jared
2 months
๐Ÿ‘€ ๐Ÿ‘€ ๐Ÿ‘€
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@jmelmed23
jared
9 months
Nice look for an impressive storm off the east coast late next weekend. After a stretch of boring weather things about to get amped up starting next weekend and going forward.
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@jmelmed23
jared
6 months
Hurricane John Doe approaching SNE ๐ŸŒ€ ๐ŸŒ€ ๐ŸŒ€
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@jmelmed23
jared
2 months
Wednesday and Thursday will not be pleasant. Donโ€™t wait to get those ACโ€™s in or repaired. Those are feel like temps with heat and humidity combined. A front will be approaching whether or not it makes it through or washes out will determine how long heat continues.
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