This is Bolens Creek Road in Yancey County. It’s not even by the river and the road is gone. From this point it’s still 10 miles to my place along the river.
Just imagine if Dorian would’ve hit Florida. If it kept moving West & not have took a turn North, looks like West Palm Beach/Delray Beach would have took a direct hit.
94L is raising my eyebrow a bit. Some Global Models (CMC, EURO/EURO AI) are showing this enter the Caribbean as a Tropical Storm/Hurricane. Definitely keep 👀 on this one.
The Atlantic Basin should flip the switch in about 10-15 days as ITQZ will lessen & AEWs shift South. Everybody living along the Coast shouldn’t be letting their guard down as people have been saying “ooo bust”. We still have until November 31st. It only takes 1. Ian proved that.
I will not look at the 18z GFS
I will not look at the 18z GFS
I will not look at the 18z GFS
I will not look at the 18z GFS
I will not look at the 18z GFS
I will not look at the 18z GFS
I will not look at the 18z GFS
I will not look at the 18z GFS
Intensity models for 92L. Looking like we get Tropical Storm Gordon between Monday-Wednesday of next week then after that we could see a Hurricane. Potentially even a Major. Worth it to track this!
Kirk is now starting to weaken. It was a POSSIBLE Cat 5 last night but the NHC dropped the ball on it. I’d say they could upgrade Kirk to a Low end 5 in Post Season Analysis.
97L’s center has moved a little East. I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes even further East. Would mean it could avoid the Yucatan & stay completely over water (Cuba & maybe the Caymans would still get impacts). Which would mean a higher forecasted Hurricane is possible.
You gotta be kidding me. Tropical Storm Debby is currently trying to do a 🍤 shape as we speak. The last one that did that was Beryl back in June/July & we saw what happen after that. Wouldn’t be surprised if this thing gets up to a Mid Category 2 Hurricane or Low Category 3.
Things just got MORE interesting. It’s likely that Helene misses the Yucatán of Mexico. Which would increase the chance for a Category 4 Hurricane at landfall in the Big Bend. SHIPS notes everything that I just said.
Debby appears to be moving out of GA WAAAY earlier than expected. This would mean a stronger storm once it makes landfall between the Grand Strand & Charleston & potentially better chances of Tropical Depression/Tropical Storm Force Winds here in our area. Dangerous week ahead.
I haven’t said anything about this burst of convection on 92L because I thought it wouldn’t stay, but, it did. No, it doesn’t mean a Category 3+ Hurricane is likely. Just means this disturbance is organizing quicker than anticipated. I’m going with a Strong TS-Cat 2 for now.
If this doesn’t scream Tropical Storm/Hurricane Potential, I don’t know what does. All of the East Coast needs to be on guard as we head into the Majority of Hurricane Season.
Many Members on the 00z ECENS have Leslie going to the Caribbean Islands. You can see it on the 06z run to a bit. Definitely wanna watch this if in the Lesser/Greater Antilles.