1. Use ROE for the financial industry
2. Use ROIC to evaluate capital allocation, or operational efficiency of a business
3. ROA = like ROE but impact of leverage ignored
4. ROCE = includes cash
Comprehensive List of the Best Investing Books for Beginners
From our
@IntrinValue
latest podcast episode (excuse the typos):
The Intelligent Investor
What Works on Wall Street
Beating the Street
One Up on Wall Street
and others...
Analyzing $GOOGL using my value checklist:
1. Why is this stock promising?
YouTube, YouTube TV, and Google Cloud have massive TAMs left to take still.
2. Company's financial history?
Revenues 10y CAGR = +19%
OpM = 25%+
Stocks that look expensive, but are cheap.
When capex = less maintenance capex, more growth capex.
Examples: GOOGL lately, AMZN in the 2010's, WMT in the 90's
ROCE vs ROIC: Tough nuances to explain but I'll do my best...
1—ROIC ignores cash; ROCE doesn’t
2—ROIC can be manipulated through special large liabilities
3—ROCE ignores favorable tax treatment from geographical revenue mix
Warren Buffett's 4 Financial Tenants
1. Focus on ROE, not EPS
2. Calculate "owner earnings"
3. Look for high profit margins
4. One dollar of market value test (on retained earnings)
Source: The Warren Buffett Way by Robert Hagstrom
Estimating intrinsic value comes down to cash flow.
Each piece, starting from Revenue, matters.
I use FCFE / share for my valuation work. What do you use?
If you look at FCF, and adjust for growth capex, it can help you find value opportunities.
How?
B/c when a company is heavily reinvesting in their business, earnings will be suppressed from high D&A but this gets added back to Cash from Op.
Historical examples: $AMZN, $WMT
30% of my portfolio in these 3 industries:
Hotels, Restaurants and Leisure
Household Durables
Specialized REITS
Anybody else have similar exposures? Any guesses to my stocks in there? (Dave not allowed to guess 😆)
Quick facts about $SBUX:
25 Trailing P/E
10% Avg Sales Growth (10y)
23% ROIC - 5Y Average
My projected FCFE/share growth rate for the next 10y=
9.5% - 15%+
2 MUST know profitability ratios.
ROIC vs ROCE
- ROIC measures operating efficiency compared to capital efficiency
- ROCE asses overall captial efficiency, including debt.
My last stock pick (May'24):
ROIC = 32%
ROCE = 31%
Yours?
If Microsoft hits $305 today they will have gained over $60B in market cap in one day, which is higher than 70%+ of S&P 500 companies' total market cap. What. $MSFT
Your favorites?
Mine are Capital Returns, Beating the Street,
Richer, Wiser, Happier,
100 Baggers, Poor Charlie's Almanack, and obv...
The Intelligent Investor h/t
@QCompounding
Analyzing $BLDR using my value checklist:
1. Why is this stock promising?
Supply and demand of new homes finally seems in balance after years of undersupply
2. Company's financial history?
Revenues 10y CAGR = +35%
OpM = 16%+
New episode is live! You can find it on your favorite podcast player or website.
Today's show discusses some of our thoughts on why some of the big "growth" names are tanking, and how to think about future investments.
The first rule of compounding: Never interrupt it unnecessarily.” -- Charlie Munger
Easy to say, tough to implement. We all need reminders of this, all of the time.
What do I look for first when I analyze an income statement?
Revenue growth, and Revenue per share growth.
As I'm in the accumulation phase of investing, almost every business w/ subpar revenue metrics is a hard pass.
4 important metrics explained simply
ROIC
How efficient the business operations are.
Interest Coverage Ratio
How much of current Operating Profits can be used to service interest payments on debt.
Net Debt to EBITDA
Solvency situation.
Current Ratio
Liquidity situation.
When first seriously considering semiconductor stocks,
I was really surprised at how strong their balance sheets are.
Case-in-point:
Manufacturing leader $TSM
Which lesson is most important to you?
To me, it is the idea of paying for a stock that's trading below its intrinsic value.
So much is subjective about a company, but you can't argue against its historical financial performance (assuming it's audited well).
My biggest investing mistake ever?
Not letting my
#1
winner continue to run, semiconductor equipment stock $LRCX.
Up +300%+ since I sold at $231.11 in October 2019.
Playing around with portfolio stats using
@finchat_io
- a snapshot of the current portfolio: high growth, strong returns, low debt and high reinvestment --
What's saved me from "high FCF", big stock crash companies?
Digging into each component of FCF. Especially stock-based compensation.
If % of SBC to CFO is too high, you might want to reconsider your investment.
Analyzing $TXRH using my value checklist:
1. Why is this stock promising?
Great geographical tailwinds, industry-leading growth, optionality with Bubba's and Jagger's.
2. Company's financial history?
Revenues 10y CAGR = +12.7%
5Y ROIC = 12%
My favorite insight from the book:
That spinoffs can be undervalued simply because parent co shareholders don't want them or institutional investors can't be bothered with them.
How many Joel Greenblatt fans out there? 🙋♂️
@ValueTrapBlog
found your podcast this week and I’ve probably listened to 20 episodes already. Thanks for the book suggestions... I’m excited to learn.
Give me one lesson I wish I knew as a beginner investor for $500, Alex.
Super important especially for cyclical businesses (housing, semiconductors, commodities, banks)
Understanding accounting, what Warren Buffett dubbed "the language of business" helps you discern between good & bad business models.
Easy to make a company sound good.
Better to see the evidence.
Another resource I'd recommend: Financial Statements by Thomas Ittelson
Biggest share cannibals in my portfolio, last 12 q's.
$BLDR, $DKS, $PHM, $MCK
A few obvious ones, a few not so obvious. What else has been out there lately?
Stocks I have bought over the last 24 months, w/ my intrinsic value estimates at time of purchase:
TSMC | $TSM
~$85
Crown Castle | $CCI
$130 - $163
Microsoft | $MSFT
$303 - $334
Builders FirstSource | $BLDR
$179 - $239
Alphabet | $GOOGL
$135 - $162
Favorite name for each type of moat?
(I own 4 of these).
Network Effects - $META
Switching Costs - $AAPL
Intangible Assets - $SBUX
Cost Advantages - $COST
Scale Advantages - $GOOGL
Just recorded a pod episode about this recently. Stay tuned 👀