Projections truther. Co-owner
@StatlineScout
Former
@MLB
@NBA
&
@Mojo
“One of those analytical model is god never seen dudes actually play before type guy”
Prospects with the most realistic ace upside per
@StatlineScout
model:
1. Mason Miller (31% K-BB)
2. Ricky Tiedemann (22.3%)
3. Noah Schultz (22.1%) 👇
For context, Grayson Rodriguez is projected 20.2% in the model.
Mason Miller 🚨
📍 Highest MiLB K-BB% all-time via
@fangraphs
(min 20 IP)
📍Better
@enosarris
Stuff+ than Cole, Burnes, Glasnow, Ohtani
📍Lower projected ERA by
@steamerpro
than Scherzer, Burnes, Castillo, Webb
📍No. 1 arm via
@StatlineScout
📍Threw a bullpen session
Stop 💤
Mason Miller hit 101.1 with 5:1 K:BB in 3 scoreless rehab innings.
Best pitching prospect alive with elite projections, stuff & results.
Criminally underrated.
We told you to sell Lawrence Butler
We told you to sell Marco Luciano
We told you to sell Curtis Mead
Never bought into Luis Matos when he was hitting
Recommended selling high on Elly when he was at peak value
Who HATES fun players more boldly & accurately than
@StatlineScout
?
Elly De La Cruz June hype is emblematic of how the Statcast era can make us dumber.
Exit velocity is presented as equally important to meaningful stats like barrel rate, chase rate, K% and BB%.
It makes for flashy Tweets & highlights, but also poor analysis & worse outcomes.
Priority Hitter 🎯 before industry ranks update ❤️
Carlos Jorge
Tyler Black
Nelson Rada
Hector Rodriguez
Everson Pereira
Chase Meidroth
Ryan Clifford
Ignacio Alvarez
Samuel Zavala
Owen Caissie
Gabriel Gonzalez
Luke Adams
Sebastian Walcott 🍼
Enmanuel Tejeda 🍼
Edwin Arroyo 🍼
#Padres
OF Prospect Samuel Zavala is the first prospect <=17 (per
@fangraphs
age cutoff) to have had 50+ PA at Single-A since 2018
Among 16 such players since '06 he ranks:
💪 1st in ISO
🚶 1st in BB%
👀 2nd in BB/K
➕ 3rd in wRC+
Yankees Chase Hampton 🚀🌕
6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 8Ks, 0 BB in his Double A debut
He’s the biggest “pop up” arm of the season, somehow emerging as an elite pitching prospect from obscurity.
And
@StatlineScout
has been in on him for months.
WOW! Jackson Holliday has:
- 19.2% BB
- 20.5% K
- .223 ISO
- 10+ SBs
- 19 Y/O in a full szn
Whoops, that's Brewers prospect Luke Adams! Go add him (3% rostered in
@Fantrax
)
Mason Miller is a top 5 pitching prospect:
-
@fangraphs
top 100
- top peak projected arm (without min IP) on
@StatlineScout
- A's favorite pitching prospect in 20 years per
@melissalockard
- 5:0 K:BB last night; 101 FB
Yankees SP prospect Chase Hampton has the 2nd best K-BB projection among all prospects in the
@StatlineScout
model*
No. 1 is Mason Miller. Add first,
Ask questions later 💨
*pre-regression. He’s light on IP!
Adael Amador has the best BB:K ratio in the minors since ‘06 among players with a .170+ ISO
Second highest? Vlad Guerrero Jr.
Special plate discipline w/ pop. The Rockies MI prospect is headed to Double A 📈❤️
4. Subtweet other fantasy analysts in passive aggressive ways. Or regular aggressive ways.
The important point is, if you're not contributing to a toxic culture, ask yourself why you got into this game in the first place.
Yankees prospect Chase Hampton dominated again last night (5.2 IP, 0 ER, 8 K, 1BB).
The question is no longer whether he’s the
@Yankees
top arm, it’s how many better pitchers are there in the minors? Only a lack of track record keeps him back from the elite.
Another Jett Williams dinger tonight
Only Junior Caminero, Roman Anthony and Ryan Clifford have a higher ISO among teenagers in High A south Atlantic league.
Power is *supposed* to be his weakness.
Padres phenom Ethan Salas peak wRC+ projection in the
@StatlineScout
model unregressed (137.5) would make him the 2nd best prospect bat after Jackson Holliday. He just turned 17.
Fellow 17 y/o hype magnet Sebastian Walcott's is just 94.8. (Offer Walcott for Salas?)
Personal Tiered ASB Prospects
1A
Jackson Holliday
1B
Elly De La Cruz
2
Evan Carter
Junior Caminero
Jackson Chourio 📸
3
James Wood
Colt Keith
Jordan Lawlar
Dylan Crews
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Wildcard
Mason Miller ❤️🩹🩺🩻
Everyone else = for trading if you can get MLB upgrades 🏆
Highest Minor League batting average since ‘06 (Min. 350 PA)
1. Wade Meckler .377
2. Juan Soto .362
3. Howie Kendrick .353
4. Brandon Belt .347
5. Adam Eaton .346
6. Mike Trout .341
Looking forward to seeing Mecker hit.
Very few (~10?) MiLB arms I prefer to Yu-Min Lin, who twirled another gem last night (10:1 K:BB). 📈
The teenager has been baffling older competition for two years and added velo this szn.
Increase your prospecting efficiency with
@StatlineScout
Recent Examples:
- Mason Miller was top pitching prospect (without IP minimum) in Feb
- ID’d Corbin Carroll as WAY more valuable than Gunnar Henderson
- Highest in the industry on Evan Carter and Esteury Ruiz preseason
Jett Williams top 25 prospect credentials 📈
- Sick name ✈️
- Top 25 in
@StatlineScout
model
- 181 wRC+ in High A at 19
- Pedigree
- Preseason 45+ via
@fangraphs
+ breakout szn = 55 prospect IMO
- Excellent K:BB
- Power / Speed
Top SP by Steamer projected ERA
Spencer Strider (3.10, 8 starts)
Tyler Glasnow (3.18, 7 starts)
Shohei Ohtani (3.21, 7 starts)
Framber Valdez (3.29, 8 starts)
Mason Miller (3.35, 4 starts) 👀
Miller touched 101 last night in a rehab assignment; could win H2H 🏆
Only 20 players have more HR than Isaac Paredes.
Only 20 players have a *worse* max exit velocity (107.7 mph); the same as Ji Hwan Bae (2 HRs).
EVs = 🗑️
Barrels & ISO = 🏆
The Yankees CPX team is STACKED with legit prospects. Tough to pick a favorite!
John Cruz leads the league in homers (other than a 23-year-old)… at 17!
Enmanuel Tejeda has a team-best 150 wRC+ at 18
Roderick Arias has blown up in July
Keiner Delgado has more BB than K
Teen wRC+ leaders = who's who of
@StatlineScout
studs.
1. Jackson Holliday (168)
2. Junior Caminero
3. Thayron Liranzo
4. Samuel Basallo 🎥👇
5. Xavier Isaac
6. Jett Williams
7. Roman Anthony
8. Termarr Johnson (137)
Mason Miller requires regressed projected stats due to low IP.
His peak projections on
@StatlineScout
if we didn’t? 👇
1. Miller: 2.39 xFIP
2. Grayson Rodriguez: 3.27 xFIP
At
@StatlineScout
we’ve been downplaying the model’s enthusiasm for Wade Meckler (top 5 by wRC+)
We know he’s a high avg, K:BB stud
But if he can hit no doubt BOMBS like this from last night at Triple A, maybe we should say it louder and prouder!
5. Make sure people understand how dumb they are if they don't agree with you.
OR if they listen to advice from uncool analysts peddling popcorn stats for cheap engagement.
Prospect Crush Team Du Jour
C: Samuel Basallo
1B: Xavier Isaac
MI: Jett Williams
MI: Matt Shaw
3B: Luke Adams
OF: Walter Jenkins
OF: Lazaro Montes
OF: Ryan Clifford
DH: Moises Ballesteros
SP1: Noah Schultz
SP2: Henry Lalane
Bench: John Cruz
Mets prospect Jett Williams 📈
- Promoted to High A Brooklyn
- Led the FSL with a .422 OBP
- .987 OPS in July
- Top 40 in
@StatlineScout
model
IMO he is their No. 1 prospect
Reds SP Nick Lodolo has hit rock bottom after an injury setback.
Now is the time to buy low for ‘24
- 21.3% K-BB career
- 3.57 xFIP career
- 3.66 projected ERA despite playing in Coors-lite park
- Top 15 projected K-BB% in
@StatlineScout
among all SP
If Mason Miller can just stay healthy, he has realistic Spencer Strider type talent with a better home park.
That's why I think the very real risk is very worth it.
Milb wRC+ Leaders (19≤) since '22
1. Jackson Chourio
2. Jackson Holliday
3. Hector Rodriguez
4. Luke Adams
5. Nelson Rada 📸
No. 3-5 all in the
@StatlineScout
top 20 now 📈
Just did something CRAZY!
Had an internet disagreement with
@RotoClegg
, so we decided to do a "phone call" (ask your parents)
He's a lovely person who helps kids with his own young family and hopes and dreams ❤️
Check out his site:
Pirates MI prospect Tsung-Che Cheng deserves our attention!
- Popped in the
@StatlineScout
model preseason, but had only a 35+ FV on
@fangraphs
- Dominated High A (10%+ BB, Sub 20% K, .250+ ISO and 10+ SB)
- Top 25 among eligible bats 📈❤️
Is this the best group of catching prospects you can recall for fantasy?
Ethan Salas
Samuel Basallo
Moises Ballesteros
Thayron Liranzo
Logan O’Hoppe
Edgar Quero
Harry Ford
Jeferson Quero
Dalton Rushing
Them boys can HIT.
I am loathe to express certain opinions given my career choice ☹️.
However, having worked at MLB I can guarantee there's a daily social sentiment report.
So tweet often and make sure you use clear language so basic machine learning tools can interpret where you stand.
Hope we sold high on Elly De La Cruz
📉 Leads Majors in Ks last 30D
📉 .618 OPS / 56 wRC+ last 30D
📉 ROS projections all 10%+ below avg
📈Stealing bases though!
Elly De La Cruz ROS projections remain very poor 😳
I’d try to find the manager who is most focused on his highlights and hype in most formats.
#SellHigh
Remember: Masyn Winn had a 3% barrel rate at Triple A Per
@TJStats
That’s borderline power.
Poor man’s Nico Hoerner / Tommy Edman is my expectation long-term.
Care about long-term QB value?
The Trubisky Line (TM) is proven point at which QB's tend to hold or lose jobs
📈3 underrated QB's are above it
📉 3 overrated QB's are either below it (or way too close)
🧵⏬
D’backs teenage prospect Yu-Min Lin struck out 13 of the 17 batters he faced last night at High-A.
His K-BB% since ‘22 trails only Andrew Painter among all MiLB arms under 22 years old. 3rd highest overall. STUD.
Minor Leaguers with a higher wRC+ than Luke Adams last decade:
1. Juan Soto
2. Kyle Schwarber
3. Kris Bryant
4. Mookie Betts
5. J-Rod
6. Vlad
7. Pete Alonso
8. Jackson Holliday
9. Michael Conforto
10. Dalton Rushing
11. Wade Meckler (.442 babip)
Great skills, bad roles dynasty buys:
- Josh Winder
- Spencer Strider
- Jhoan Duran
- Clarke Schmidt
- Roansy Contreras
- Luis Gil (AAA)
Fingers crossed they’re starters sometime down the line!
H/t to
@DerekVanRiper
who discussed some of these names on
@ratesandbarrels
The🏆 cycle
1⃣ Trade your first year player draft (FYPD) picks for MLB upgrades
2⃣ Crawl
@StatlineScout
for daily 📈
3⃣ Add later-round picks like Roman Anthony, Jud Fabian, Chase Hampton and Chase Meidroth when they
#ModelPop
🍾
4⃣ Have superior roster & farm
5⃣ Break leagues
Braves SP Hurston Waldrep dominated his Double A debut.
He’s dominating the
@StatlineScout
model in a small sample, but I’m more confident because he has excellent pedigree too.
Top 5 SP prospect in the minors? Or need to see a longer track record?
White Sox Gregory Santos closer resume
✅ Best
@enosarris
stuff+ on team
✅ Most velo
✅ Late inning usage
✅ Sketchy healthy competition
✅ Unlikely to be traded
✅ Good stats
❌ Liam Hendriks to close if healthy
❌
@steamerpro
projection (3.89 ERA) poor for closer
The *best* (Top 10-40 bats in the model only) underrated bats on
@StatlineScout
vs consensus:
Carlos Jorge
Tyler Black
Chase Meidroth
Nelson Rada
Hector Rodriguez
Luke Adams
Ryan Clifford 📸
Jud Fabian
Dalton Rushing
Ignacio Alvarez
Ross changed dynasty lives for YEARS calling Jackson Holliday as the No. 1 overall prospect back in mid-April using the
@StatlineScout
model as guidance.
Follow him for league-altering wisdom.
It's early obviously, but let's take a quick peek at the top 2 picks in last year's draft:
Jackson Holliday: .348/.483/.609, 6BB, 3K 👀
Druw Jones: .053/.182/.053, 3BB, 10K 😬
I'm confident Jones's talent will catch up, but Holliday looks like a
#1
overall prospect to me!!
Cubs OF Pete Crow Armstrong is still underrated by the market.
Age-adjusted production & Elite D?
Much more promising than Masyn Winn & Noelvi Marte despite similar cost.
Highest MiLB batting average last last decade:
1. Wade Meckler (.375)
2. Juan Soto (.362)
3. Mookie Betts (.347)
The promotion makes it harder to ignore the BABIP god despite no pop/speed.
Elly De La Cruz ROS projections remain very poor 😳
I’d try to find the manager who is most focused on his highlights and hype in most formats.
#SellHigh
Like buying elite prospect potential for cheap?
Mariners Michael Arroyo & Yankees Enmanuel Tejeda have the No. 1 & 2 peak projected wRC+ among ineligible bats on
@StatlineScout
+ have good scouting reports 📈
Hard to match their upside.
Mason Miller has been promoted to Triple-A by the Athletics 📈
- 👑 of
@StatlineScout
pitching model by peak projected K-BB%
- 8:0 K:BB in 3.2 Double A IP 👀
- 100 MPH ⛽️
Who are you trading Samuel Basallo for this offseason if you’re looking to win now?
The teenager’s peak projection on
@StatlineScout
is now ahead of sluggers like Rafael Devers and Pete Alonso!
BUY Kyle Harrison at market.
There’s only a few MiLB arms projected better.
Offer Jose Berrios and you’ll likely receive a superior talent now & later.
Orioles teen Samuel Basallo is 16% rostered in
@Fantrax
but has a case to be the No. 1 catching prospect.
Shines in
@StatlineScout
& as usual
@PARSlist
&
@RossJensen12
identified him as attention worthy fastest in the industry.