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@The_Ba_Se

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The Baltic Sentinel is a defense journal based in Tallinn. Observing and reporting developments in NATO's northeast.

Tallinn, Estonia
Joined June 2024
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
8 days
Beijing submitted a mock report to Estonian authorities in a clear attempt to obstruct the investigation into the 2023 Balticconnector undersea gas pipeline damage and impose the narrative of an accident.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
'Pavel Durov took money from the same Russian oligarchs he criticized. At the same time, he wrote posts claiming he was forced to leave Russia. This was part of a PR strategy,' former #Telegram director Anton Rosenberg told us in an in-depth interview.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
Recently, @The_Ba_Se interviewed insightful 🇺🇦 war analyst @MBielieskov to get his panoramic grasp of Ukraine's situation before and after the Kursk incursion. Here are some of his key takeaways:
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
3 months
Putin is running on fumes and is therefore determined to derail the West in 2024, Jonatan Vseviov, Secretary General of the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, warns in his panoramic essay about the current state of the horrific #WarinUkraine
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
After losing Kursk, 🇷🇺 can no longer seek freezing the situation based on the current realities on the ground. 🇺🇦 could not continue to play according to Moscow's rules, analyst and activist @MBielieskov said in an interview with @The_Ba_Se :
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
1/11 Kursk incursion: Ukraine couldn’t sit idly by and play by Russian rules. Zelensky tried something unconventional. Strategically, it challenges Russia's narrative that any settlement must consider the loss of 18% of 🇺🇦 territories.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
8/11 The disappointing 2023 counter-attack: Ukraine proposed attacking Melitopol in 2022, but partners advised a less ambitious approach. By the time the plan was supported in 2023, Russia had fortified its defenses. Timing and decisive action are crucial factors in war.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
6/11 The US minimalist approach limits Ukraine’s strategy due to resource dependency. #NATO prefers to enhance its partnership model, while Ukraine seeks membership to share the risks. This difference in perspectives is likely to persist for some time.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
2/11 Ukraine also aimed to force a major redeployment of Russian forces out of Donetsk. Success hinges on whether Russia stabilizes the front or tries to regain lost territories. The situation remains fluid.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
5/11 Ukraine’s goals differ from the US. Ukraine seeks total territorial liberation, while the US focuses on inflicting enough damage on Russian forces to ensure a durable settlement.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
4/11 Western analysts initially underestimated Ukraine, favoring Russia before Feb 2022, which influenced Western policy decisions. The narrative has shifted—Russia is no longer seen as unbeatable. However, flawed defense analysis has had real-life consequences for Ukraine.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
11/11 General Syrskyi is known for frequent frontline visits, unlike his predecessor Zaluzhnyi, sparking debate on micromanagement. However, the real issue is structural constraints—limited resources and the challenge of balancing defense with offensive expectations.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
7/11 Emmanuel Macron’s rhetorical initiatives, though often seen as symbolic or empty, add value by expanding the discussion on what is possible and signaling to Russia that #NATO and Ukraine are strengthening their ties.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
9/11 Recruitment is a challenge not just for Ukraine but for the West at large. Enthusiasm wanes after the initial months of war. The solution lies in increased firepower, as Western demographics don't support total war as they once did.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
3/11 On a larger scale, neither the aggressor nor the defender is prevailing, as both pursue maximalist goals, lacking military capabilities to achieve them. Prolonged wars of attrition are difficult to maintain internationally, posing significant challenges for Ukraine.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
10/11 🇷🇺 has adapted defensively, posing challenges for Ukraine's offensives. Yet, they still struggle with offensive actions, armor deficits, and air superiority. Their reliance on manpower, UAVs, and artillery highlights ongoing shortcomings.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
3 months
In a recent interview with the Baltic Sentinel, creator of #vatniksoup @P_Kallioniemi shared his insights on the disinformation war and the challenges faced by the West. Highly recommendable 🧵👇
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
"The Zeitenwende moment was an opportunity to overcome false narratives that shape Germany's Ukraine-policy, but Scholz faltered under the pressure from 🇩🇪 industry and pacifists," @RKiesewetter (CDU) explained to @The_Ba_Se in a recent interview.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
3/10 Scholz's ambiguous stance—“Ukraine must not lose, Russia must not win”— lacks both operational clarity and ethical justification. It leads to massive sacrifices by Ukraine, without providing a clear strategic vision for the conflict's resolution.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
1 month
🇱🇻 authorities' delayed public response and #NATO 's perceived passive handling of Russian drone crash on September 7 sparks public scrutiny in Latvia. President @edgarsrinkevics has called for review of the handling of unconventional air threat scenarios.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
3 months
1/9 'Vatnik' refers to someone who believes or spreads Kremlin narratives. Some are Kremlin agents, while others are unaware of their role. 'Vatnik hunt' is qualitative research on personas—understanding who spreads Kremlin narratives and their motivations, explains Kallioniemi.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
1 month
🇪🇪Defense Forces confirmed comms issues with a 🇺🇸RQ-4B Global Hawk surveillance drone in Estonian airspace. The drone landed safely despite disturbances. 🇷🇺 signal interference continues to impact aviation safety in the Baltic region.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
3 months
2/9 A common ideology unites vatniks: strong anti-Western and anti-establishment sentiments. True believers are rare.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
One of the key persons in Estonian diplomacy, @vseviov , recently published a panoramic essay at @The_Ba_Se 📜 about the strategic implications of how the West handles the question of Ukraine's sovereignty. Here's a thread with some of his thoughts: 🧵
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
3 months
4/9 #vatniksoup ’s audience mostly supports Ukraine. Changing minds online is rare; Pekka Kallioniemi has seen it happen only twice in 2.5 years.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
3 months
7/9 Top 3 Western countries struggling with cognitive resilience: the U.S. (political polarization), Germany (conspiracy theories getting traction), and Hungary (hate campaigns).
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
3 months
8/9 Lying is cheaper and easier than telling the truth. Disinformation bots spread lies rapidly, making it hard for slower fact-checking to keep up.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
3 months
5/9 Effective change of minds requires long-term societal commitment, particularly through education. Kallioniemi opposes censorship, even of Russian propaganda.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
3 months
6/9 There's a significant effort to align conspiracy theories with the Russian agenda, portraying Putin as an anti-globalist hero.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
3 months
3/9 Most vatniks are motivated by greed or nostalgia for the Communist system, fighting against something rather than for a cause.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
What’s holding 🇩🇪 and Olaf Scholz back from showing leadership on Ukraine and Europe’s security? In a recent interview, German opposition politician @RKiesewetter unpacked this problem that shows no signs of easing.🧵👇
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
3 months
9/9 AI-assisted future battles in disinformation resemble drone warfare; the smarter system will prevail, according to Kallioniemi.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
3 months
@The_Ba_Se recently interviewed missile and nuclear defense expert @FRHoffmann1 on how the war in Ukraine has influenced Western missile defense, long-range strike, and nuclear deterrence policies. Here’s a thread 🧵 focusing on missile warfare. 🚀
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
7/10 To fulfill promises recently given to NATO to equip and man three divisions, Germany needs an additional €300B for the Bundeswehr by 2030, plus €200B for critical infrastructure. Currently, only 3 🇩🇪 brigades out of 8 are combat ready.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
4 months
Is Donald Tusk railing at Germany as a whole, or specifically at certain political forces within Germany (like SPD) for failing to offer convincing counterarguments to the European Defense Bonds idea?
@NicholasVinocur
Nicholas Vinocur ✍️
4 months
Remarkable. Poland's Donald Tusk rails at German opposition to common defense borrowing... while standing next to Olaf Scholz. This ain't your grandmother's Poland
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
8/10 Positive steps by Scholz include declaring Zeitenwende as a mental shift and taking in over a million 🇺🇦 refugees (but only 20% are employed). The establishment of a brigade in Lithuania is 💪, but the lacking defense budget leaves Bundeswehr underdeveloped.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
1/10 Despite limited governmental guidance, 80% of Germans still support aiding Ukraine. Yet, in eastern states like Saxony & Thuringia, 57% favor reducing aid. Part of the problem is the lack of direct communication from the government to align national support.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
6/10 The Zeitenwende moment was squandered due to pressure from industry and pacifists. Scholz promised a strong Bundeswehr, but additional funding is already depleted. Only €66B of the special €100B budget went to armament.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
2/10 Ukraine support is hampered by Scholz's party’s internal divide, led by pacifist Rolf Mützenich. Some in the SPD still hold a romanticized view of Russia as a crucial neighbor. Countries between Russia and Germany are viewed not as subjects of history, but as objects.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
10/10 Stronger demands and more critical signals from Allies directed at Berlin could stimulate domestic debate and pressure the German government. Currently, Scholz seems unaware of the isolation Germany has walled itself into.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
9/10 Scholz's preference for maintaining Putin’s power over supporting a fully sovereign Ukraine contradicts his February 16th 🇩🇪🇺🇦security agreement, which committed to supporting Ukraine within its 1991 borders as long as necessary.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
4 months
Belgium plans to reach the agreed #NATO minimum of 2% on defense spending by🥁2035. Canada has no plans in place to reach the goal.
@ICDS_Tallinn
ICDS Tallinn
4 months
#NATO ’s latest defence spending figures contain better news than expected when Felix Gasper and Tony Lawrence last examined the data in April. Burden-sharing will be a key item on the agenda when heads of state and government meet at #NATOSummit .
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
4/10 His reluctance to fully support Ukraine also ties back to his close connections with Russia during his time as Hamburg Mayor and Finance Minister. The Wirecard scandal, an operation linked to Russia, implicates him and calls for further investigation into Scholz actions.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
5/10 The reluctance to aid Ukraine has to some extent been a coordinated effort before the teams of Joe Biden and Scholz. But true leaders rise above poor advice. Austin and Blinken circumvented Sullivan for Ukraine to get Western tanks.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
"We need to change our approach to the Suwalki Corridor. Instead of waiting for the enemy to cross into 🇵🇱 or 🇱🇹, we should prevent them from launching such an operation altogether," former 🇵🇱CHOD stated in an exclusive interview with @The_Ba_Se :
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
3 months
An Estonian volunteer fighter in Ukraine, codenamed 'Stinger,' was killed by a Russian drone. That tragic event inspired the creation of a drone-dwarfing device. Innovation is the most intelligent response to aggression. R.I.P., Stinger. 🇪🇪 🇺🇦
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
1 month
"We threw on cowboy hats and charged with a hurrah," recalls 🇪🇪 volunteer T-Bone (41), who, exactly 2 yrs ago, stood in the vanguard of the 🇺🇦 Kharkiv counteroffensive alongside 🇱🇻 volunteer Ulvis (29). The Baltic brothers in arms still fight in 🇺🇦 ranks.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
Congressman Don Bacon, a Republican from Nebraska, identifies himself and many of his party colleagues as "Eisenhower Republicans" and pledges to push the Pentagon on strengthening military deterrence in the Baltics.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
@nexta_tv 'Pavel Durov took money from the same Russian oligarchs he criticized. At the same time, he wrote posts claiming he was forced to leave Russia. This was part of a PR strategy,' former #Telegram director Anton Rosenberg told us in an in-depth interview.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
4 months
According to @SylvieKauffmann Kaja Kallas's primary challenges include assembling a capable team to address global issues beyond Russia and Ukraine, and avoiding the pitfalls that hindered her predecessor, Joseph Borrell. Read her interview to @The_Ba_Se
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
Tweet media one
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
3 months
8/9 Unlike Russia, Ukraine likely does not have a real production line for either long-range drones or cruise missiles, which are produced artisanally. That's why Ukraine relies heavily on Western supplies.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
General Rajmund T. Andrzejczak, Poland's recent Defense Chief, is a pivotal architect of the Baltic military renaissance that began in 2021. Here’s a 🧵 of his recent in-depth interview with @The_Ba_Se :
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
Meet Aleksei, the guy who thought hiding a Rolex in his underwear was a classy move when crossing Estonian border to Russia. And Jevgeni, the wine lover who tried smuggling €1k luxury wines to Russia twice. 🍷
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
3 months
5/9 Will drones take over some of the functions missiles fulfill today? No, drones are useful for saturating an adversary’s missile defenses. To maximize the effectiveness of individual weapons, it's better to use cruise or ballistic missiles.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
3 months
Outgoing Estonian Chief of Defense General Martin Herem sat down with The Baltic Sentinel for one of his final interviews. Here are the highlights from his impactful five and a half years in command. 🧵 #Estonia #NATO
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
1 month
All units of the Lithuanian Armed Forces will be equipped with first-person view (FPV) drones and by 2025, Lithuania's industry is expected to have several new production lines for maritime unmanned vehicles, according to Defense Minister @LKasciunas .
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
Awful and true:
@OlenaHalushka
Olena Halushka
2 months
Russian terrorists are hunting Ukrainian civilians with drones in the Kherson region daily. Again: the soldiers of a permanent member of the UN Security Council, tasked with maintaining international peace and order, are conducting safaris on elderly and kids. This is despicable.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
Emperor and philosopher Marcus Aurelius once said, 'Waste no more time arguing about what a good man should be. Be one.' 🇪🇪 soldier Martin Jääger, who fell in Ukraine on June 21st while saving his fellow soldiers, truly lived by this principle.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
3 months
Stephen Fry recently visited Ukraine and documented his journey in a YouTube film. In this scene, Fry is joking about Putin and Medvedev, eliciting heartfelt, childlike laughter from President Zelenskyy. Best proof of Ukraine's unyielding resilience.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
"Exchanging hostages for spies sets a dangerous precedent, potentially encouraging Russia to intensify its active measures in the west, thereby increasing security risks for western countries."
@ICDS_Tallinn
ICDS Tallinn
2 months
This prisoner exchange is anything but equitable and its rationale and justification are directly tied to the outcome of the US presidential election, writes @IgorGretskiy .
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
3 months
🧵Former commanding general of the U.S. Army Europe Ben Hodges kindly assisted The Baltic Sentinel in unpacking the deliveries of NATO Washington Summit. Here's a thread with his key insights.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
3 months
7/9 The West has significantly increased missile defense production. Unfortunately, European countries have not restarted their missile production and are overly reliant on the U.S., Israel, and South Korea in this matter.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
3 months
2/9 Even smaller countries like the Baltic states have learned the importance of these weapons. To fight effectively, you need to attrite the adversary behind the front line, not just at the front. This necessitates having long-range strike weapons.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
Tweet media one
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
3 months
4/9 #NATO shooting down missiles over Ukraine from its own territory would enable Ukraine to focus its assets on other threats and conserve its critically low interceptor ammunition.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
3 months
9/9 We've witnessed the proliferation of missile production capacity. Since the establishment of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) in 1987 with seven countries, the number of states capable of producing missiles or related technology has increased significantly.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
4 months
As part of the updated NATO Baltic defense plans, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, and Poland are embarking on extensive efforts to bolster their border defenses.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
3 months
Baltic Sea countries dominate the Ukraine Aid rankings, securing seven out of the top ten spots.
@EconomyInformal
Informal Economy
3 months
Government Support to Ukraine🇺🇦 (%GDP) Top 10 Countries Estonia🇪🇪 Denmark🇩🇰 Lithuania🇱🇹 Latvia🇱🇻 Finland🇫🇮 Poland🇵🇱 Slovakia🇸🇰 Sweden🇸🇪 Czechia🇨🇿 Netherlands🇳🇱 @kielinstitute
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
3 months
3/9 Missile defense has proven more effective than previously assumed. The 2016-2019 Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure led to the belief that missile defense was difficult and not cost-efficient. The war in Ukraine has changed this perception.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
3 months
Missile warfare was just one topic in an in-depth interview that also covered the technicalities of nuclear war, NATO's deterrence, ballistic missile defense, and comparisons of missile wars in Israel and Ukraine. Read or listen to the full conversation:
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
3 months
For Estonia, this is not a new development. In 2011, a gunman entered the @MoD_Estonia building, ending up dead after a two-hour firefight with police. A recent academic study by @sisekaitse shows the gunman was incited by constant Russian propaganda.
@carlbildt
Carl Bildt
3 months
Russia is beginning a ‘clandestine war’ inside Europe, says former Swedish Prime Minister | CNN
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
3 months
1/9 The war in Ukraine shows that modern major interstate wars between peer or near-peer adversaries are missile-centric. Consequently, most NATO countries are enhancing missile defenses and acquiring long-range strike capabilities.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
3 months
6/9 Russia's missile production exceeds pre-war levels. While sanctions haven't cut off production entirely, they have significantly lowered the quality of Russian weapon systems and increased costs.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
1 month
Latvian airspace is currently patrolled by German fighter jets. What are the odds they might engage with Russian drones?
@GLandsbergis
Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹
1 month
Incidents unthinkable 3 yrs ago are now treated as routine. Nothing should be landing on Ukraine, or Latvia, or anywhere on NATO territory, but this is the new reality our inaction has allowed to emerge. Lithuania will of course be supporting a strong allied response.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
🇺🇦 new Palianytsia drone rivals cruise missiles in speed and accuracy, while 🇮🇷 Shahed is more like a basic UAV—cheap and simple. "Hard to intercept but easy to understand why it was sent," @ZelenskyyUa described the new weapon in his Sunday's address.
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
2 months
Tweet media one
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@The_Ba_Se
The BaSe
4 months
In his comments, General Martin Herem made it clear that he doesn’t believe Moscow can be deterred. “You cannot deter [a] mad person,” he said, and Russia is “crazy.”
@BreakingDefense
Breaking Defense
4 months
Baltic defensive bunker line not meant to stop Russian attack, but ‘shape’ it: General
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