Time Magazine Person of the Year 2006. Forbes 46 Under 46. Puns are the last remaining alpha. Personal account. Not investment advice. Assume position held.
A high ROE DuPont breakup would be composed of one entity with high margins, one entity with good asset turns and one stuffed with all the leverage.
Some call this $DD
Every time you buy a plane ticket, you are RENTING from an airline, and *literally* throwing away money.
With interest rates so low, there is no good reason not to buy your first plane and build equity.
#Planeowership
is an investment and a lifestyle.
Financial obligations (rent, mortgage payments, taxes, auto lease) as a % of disposable income are significantly lower than in past periods, driven in part by strong wages.
While I’m bearish on some consumer demand driven stocks, I have to consider this…
If you’re 40, Covid is 5x more lethal than the flu. If you’re 60, it’s 14 times more lethal.
Just The Flu bros should read just-this-figure...
H/T
@GidMK
Bears say $TSLA is not worth much in a liquidation. This is ridiculous.
Can you imagine how valuable the Tesla customer list would be to a Nigerian prince?!
“Elon reached out to me to get hold of that script and it became apparent very quickly that he didn’t understand coding as well as he made out. He asked, “How do I run this Python script?”
Crikey! Is this true
@elonmusk
?
Imagine in 1920 you perfectly predicted the massive growth global car use and airplane travel. And then bought a bunch of auto manufacturer and airline stocks.
Demand growth != economic profits. From a classic of the 1999 internet bubble.
Leon Shaulov on $GOOGL: “Right now it’s an AI loser & trades at a cheap multiple. Our job is to look out 9-12 months… if this company cut some costs, they’re now an AI winner with a better opex structure, growing 20% trading at 24x $9.50-$10… plausible. That’s 70% up from here”
One of the top 5 public company earnings call interactions I can recall. Worth reading in full.
Batman appearances and the Four Corners (FCPT) moments were good too. Share any other transcripts of note in the replies.
@DrunkenAnarchi1
@GadSaad
@elonmusk
@joerogan
@RichardDawkins
Yes, scientists and researchers often have back and forths in normal course of their profession.
A scientist debating a charismatic charlatan and politician is counterproductive to furthering knowledge or arriving closer to the truth
@rabois
@mr_skilling
Keith, on the call you were repeatedly babbling about “gross margin” and “contribution margin”.
You yourself have pointed out that gross margin is not a good metric, and that free cash flow (severely negative at OpenDoor) is the most important.
Since the Roger Federer speech is making the rounds, time to revisit
@mjmauboussin
skill-luck continuum & the inputs that go in.
Tennis is notably on the other end of the continuum than investing: a game of small skill edges translating like clockwork to large outcome changes
@JerryCap
@VAntonFreeman
Of course there will be *some* luck in any investment track record. As there is in many activities and sports.
The question is can it be be disentangled from skill. And the short answer over significant time period and number of bets is yes. H/T
@mjmauboussin
@RayDalio
Ray, in the spirit of radical transparency, why does Bridgewater own Daqo Energy $DQ which the US government has added to its entity list for human rights violations and the use of Uyghur forced labor?
“When they choose not to allocate to Bitcoin, that is a deeply political choice, and we need to be pushing back against them,” Thiel said.
Lol, so ultralibertarian is butthurt about people choosing things? Smells like freedom to me…
Bernstein: “while Gen AI is going to have a meaningful on the industry, we do not believe the level of expectations are in fact correct”
“Software vendors are starting to use alternative chips especially for inferencing” $AVGO
$TSLA suppliers, at what point does the creditworthiness of your customer and potential inability to raise capital matter? Is demanding cash-on-delivery (COD) prudent practice by your CFO?
Gentleman & pun-artist
@ElonBachman
has been nuked ostensibly for a tweet crediting
@elonmusk
His work on compiling a record of global $TSLA fatalities draws the ire of transparency foes.
If you have esteem for the truth & transparency, please RT 🚨🚨
WorldCom: one of a number of companies that had real products (literally helped build the internet) but was a massive fraud. Addresses my “but I’m using the product so it’s not a fraud” pet peeve.
“A stock chart that might look familiar today”
H/T
@InvestorAmnesia
@WallStCynic
@WallStCynic
The chutzpah doesn’t end there.
Imagine being a SPAC promoter and VC who wrote checks to private companies that could IPO at 100x sales, and still whining about interest rate policies of the past 5 years…
@CAndreiCosmin
@sapinker
@elonmusk
@zacharykarabell
@WIRED
Tesla & Theranos:
✅ Cult of personality CEO
✅ Raise capital w/ misleading claims
✅ Culture of deception
✅ Beta-test on customers risking health
✅ Sell non-existent product/features
✅ Enabled by weak BOD
✅ Claim to save the world
✅ Stifle critics & target whistleblowers
The
@SEC_Enforcement
asks $TSLA some interesting questions... regarding
> “Source of orders placed”
> Number of reservations/cancellations
> Use of deposits
> Destruction of documents
Study failure: About 44% of stocks experienced “catastrophic loss” (an unrecovered 70% decline). 42% of stocks displayed negative returns, and 2/3rds negative alpha.
Forget ten-baggers. Seek and short 0.3 baggers! It seems rather imprudent to own a stock 🤷♂️
Source: JP Morgan
@kevinnbass
It literally says up top: “blog is specifically about respirators used by healthcare workers during long shifts and *not* facemasks worn as barrier control to stop the spread of COVID.”
Why did you omit that?
Needham downgrades $INTC
1) uncompelling risk/reward
2) DCAI challenged by competing architectures & direct comps
3) Management aggressive (no way!) on PC TAM
4) margin expansion challenged
5) unattractive valuation
Federal Reserve online debit rule change proposal requiring at least two unaffiliated network routing options.
Could benefit $FISV and $PYPL, at the expense of the networks $V & $MA?
H/T 🔒 Placebo
A number of IPOs in the last decade have used the “Up-C” structure.
A presentation in which a law firm which appears to say it is a value transfer from dumb public investors who don’t do the math to insiders…
Terry Smith, 1H 2022 letter: "The FCF yield on the portfolio, which had ended 2021 at 2.7%, increased to 3.6% at the end of June 2022. This means that in the space of six months, the valuation of the portfolio has declined all the way back to where it was at the end of 2017."
Small caps have been more expensive than large caps for years accounting for FCF, negative earners, & leverage.
The R2000 is such a crappy index that annually a group of pump & dumps vie to get enter the index in a grotesque exit liquidity ritual known as the “Russell Rebalance”
@WaterworldCapi1
@pekwat
I think the Russell2000 was demonstrably expensive prior to the drawdown, as I have tweeted with data for years.
And besides what I think, Joel Greenblatt who knows a thing or two about valuation was been sharing similar data for years
Hey "sanctimonious journalists" so many Tesla angles for public interest in plain sight. Retweet, fact-check & collect prize $TSLA
1 Is Tesla the "safest" car?
2 Did TSLA defraud CA state w/ bat swap($300m)?
3 Lemon lawsuits
4 Open SEC investigation?
5 AP fraud Lawsuits settle
The
@FT
started reporting on Wirecard in 2015, and
@RodBoydILM
in 2018.
I would like to point out that they both have also reported on shenanigans at the Brookfield complex, SIRF as early as in 2013.
A house of cards? Buyer beware. Mini-THREAD 1/n
If you didn’t get on a 30 Under 30 list and don’t like how you don’t have great career opportunities, I have no sympathy for you. Personal accountability. And if you have kids and they aren’t on the 15 Under 15 list- their failures are your fault. Deal.
To understand why Tesla’s fraud might be bad for environmental causes in the long run, imagine this:
You came up with a truly innovative idea or genuine product for easier & cheaper blood tests. How much harder has Theranos made it for you to get funded? Or just run experiments?
The first reason is not to lose money or your job. I have seen analysts get fired because they did not do simple field work confirming or disconfirming their thesis. Love the attached anecdote (8 years ago) from Stanley Druckenmiller on why he fired one of his money managers.
Cathie Wood & Michael Burry have opposite world views, but they somehow both end up owning the crappiest companies.
Wood: Workhorse, Vuzix, Wirecard, Tesla, Blade
Burry: Men’s Wearhouse (Tailored Brands), Geo Group, CoreCivic, Occidental Petro, Lumen (Centurylink), Golden Ocean
Anybody surprised that Tesla is impulsively removing radar, lumbar support and other parts/features hasn’t been paying attention.
$600bn market cap, but still a fly-by-night operator...
A company that will decide if *Parts* are needed based on the CF of that month. Parts! Rent! Salary!$TSLA taking care of all the stakeholders in their flywheel of fraud.
Parts: Customers, suppliers, insurers🙌🏽
Rent: landlords & creditors🤝
Salary & travel expense:employees🤞🏽
Palm Valley on small caps:
> S&P600 non-financial not that cheap: 4% FCF yield, 20x EV/EBIT
> Russell2000 $IWM filled with unprofitable & levered trash: hard to compare to S&P500
> small cap earnings has (cyclically) surged (over-earning)
> R2K Indistrials valuation near ATH
Decades of increased (ICE) car and gasoline use in California; yet pollution has been reduced by 97%.
Reasonable regulations 🤝 capitalist response and private technological innovation?
“When they choose not to allocate to Bitcoin, that is a deeply political choice, and we need to be pushing back against them,” Thiel said.
Lol, so ultralibertarian is butthurt about people choosing things? Smells like freedom to me…