Powering computer picks, gambling insights and projections for CBS Sports / SportsLine since '13. Founder of Accuscore. Unbiased for everything but the Ravens.
if
@Lj_era8
ever leaves Baltimore I will retire. I wouldn't be able to watch the NFL anymore and I wouldn't be able to do 80% of my job in that case. I really hope my wife is serious about going back to work.
@Orioles
Some people can’t relate and think i’m saying something politically incorrect but Brooks Robinson is the first white man that i remember talking to, shaking hands with etc at a Kmart autograph signing
parents moved to MD at the start of the orioles late 60s early 70s dynasty and
@LIVERavenNation
@jeffzrebiec
obviously the Ravens couldn't keep him but the bigger question is it doesn't seem like Seattle and Mike Macdonald made any effort to sign him either.
If they did and he chose PIT for the same (or less) then I apologize, but if SEA didn't go after him given they replaced both
@Kahuna_Med
if i got hit by even a speck of ice i’d act like my eye popped out
i would also claim to have ingested some of the drink and gotten some accidentally in an open cut and demand a full screening for all diseases
OR
settle for $500K
@LIVERavenNation
@jeffzrebiec
apologies for this insensitive analogy but I view Patrick Queen as the bullet, but Roquan is the marksman and macdonald (and hopefully zach orr) is the craftsman who handmade the gun
Bullets do the damage, but you can always find plenty more of them. as long as you have the gun
@Orioles
i actually went to a church (st bernard’s) that shared a parking lot with Memorial Stadium. the orioles of the 70s and Brooks robinson were literally god to me.
the mass was in korean so i didn’t understand what was being said so i thought about the orioles during that hour
Gen Z is spoiled. The fact that they are whining about FanDuel and DraftKings not refunding Aaron Rodgers bets proves it.
It's gambling in the NFL. This happens. No refunds. Babies
cannot stand the NBA these days and the late scratches. I don't want to minimize what the 'personal' reasons that would keep VanVleet out are, but I do think the NBA needs to instruct teams that they need to finalize starting lineups (at the least) 3 hours before tipoff to give
Raptors: Fred VanVleet is out. He was a late scratch.
Gary Trent Jr. will start. Malachi Flynn might see more minutes too.
Raptors Starters: Scottie Barnes, Gary Trent Jr., O.G. Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, and Jakob Poeltl
Huge stop by FSU going from 42% to 58% in live sim to win
weird bug on draftkings showing FSU -125 to cover +3.5 but -125 to win. data bugs like these are a pet peeve of mine
Korea and Japan have a complicated history to say the least. i identify as KOREAN AMERICAN. but i have to say that was amazing.
you can’t spell Ohtani without Oh. we might be distant cousins
I thought Denver would go from -7 to -7.5 but the line moved the other way and you could see it at -6.0 in some spots.
According to Sport Radar 73% of public is on Denver so we have some fishy reverse line movement in play. Not sure what would make the 'smart money' back Toronto
@NFL_DovKleiman
how are these stats considered close? 66% to 62% when the range of starting QBs is roughly 60 to 70% is massive 75% more INTs is gigantic and i’ll take the wins that lamar has over the 3 rushing tds
i’m not only stunned by the FDU Purdue score i am shocked by how far behind the broadcast (not stream) is from the actual live action. i swear it is nearly 50 seconds of game play behind!!!!
live betting will not catch on in america if this is the reality
it really angers me that our country would allow Josh McDaniels to be super wealthy as a coach in the NFL
how can someone who everyone seems to hate, has a huge ego, is the worst 'leader of men', can't evaluate OFFENSIVE talent, doesn't know how to use Davante Adams or Hunter
we'll be putting together something prettier, but this is Super Bowl Squares data
SIM%s UPPER LEFT
ODDS BOTTOM LEFT
ODDS IMPLIED% BOTTOM RIGHT (39.4% JUICE)
+BETTING VALUES SIM% > ODDS% TOP RIGHT
Chiefs 1, Eagles 0 is A LOCK at 1.32% and +10000!! Putting my 401K on it right now
@ryanmink
They don't know anything about the Ravens. Called Likely "Lively", Demarcus Robinson was Marcus, Ronnie Stanley was a Right Guard.
take it from me. National media personalities no nothing about Baltimore.
Been posting these early and it's working with more 2-1s and a beautiful 3-0 yesterday. Will stick with the schedule that is working until it stops.
See Michael Porter Jr and Aaron Gordon popped up on the injury report as GTDs but RotoWire says they are probable vs Memphis.
Over 58 in Kansas-Houston never in doubt. Was a bit freaked out when I saw our projection of 78 pts vs a line of 58 and a 79% chance of the over on
@SportsLine
but we might get there
@JakeFetner
So far our MLB values have been on overs (2-1 so far). Today we like over 8.5 in the Braves-Cardinals game
If you are tailing go to DraftKings now and get +100
FanDuel is at -105 and Caesars is -120
Just realized that after being the sole remaining founding developer of
@SportsLine
they just started following me. Kind of weird but better late than never, right?
Kids don't follow their parents I guess outside of Facebook either.
NBA makes all these 'changes' to get players to play more games and after less than a week I see just as many players ruled out an hour before tip-offs as ever (ex. Bam, Kyrie)
I was excited to see if the NBA would make the regular season a more 'bet-able' sport and I am as
Nick Chubb is a truly special RB who showed no decline after 1000+ carries and is an all-time great in yards per carry despite being a 'power back'. His impact assuming he is out for the season is about as big as it gets for a non-QB.
Their SB% is basically down 66% and it will
Here are my early observations / data points re: plays in college football with the clock not stopping on every first down
Using +/- 1.5 more plays in '23 vs '22 as More or Less:
- Teams that rushed 55% or Less averaged around 2 fewer plays each
- 31 of 48 teams saw a decline
Projecting a massive game for Jokic vs the Mavericks (28 pts, 11 reb, 11 ast) but I'm still shocked that he is -106 to get a triple double. I think you should always be plus money to get a triple double.
I do like the over 233.5 in this game. the line is going up so might be
You can probably say this for most AFC teams, but the Dolphins schedule looks brutal because in addition to having a tough division, they also play the NFC East (3 teams won at least 1 playoff game) and the AFC West (at KC, at LAC). The bad teams from last season could be good
The Rams have agreed to trade Jalen Ramsey to the Dolphins.
GOOD NEWS: The Dolphins increase their chances of winning a Super Bowl by 50%! 📈
BAD NEWS: Their chances only go from 0.4% to 0.6% chance 🥶
According to our Sportsline simulations
the most annoying thing about this, besides his very punchable face is he only said it to get a reaction on social media because he's a nerd who doesn't translate on social media (yeah, I know, takes one to know one, but I could kick his ass)
he knew there was a 50% chance he'd
Mike Florio on Ravens/49ers
“The 49ers kick the s**** out of the Ravens, I’m sorry I know that’s disrespectful to the Ravens, but let’s be realistic…the 49ers are going to dismantle the Ravens. If it’s a Super Bowl preview, the Super Bowl’s gonna suck”
Live sims have some value on Florida Atlantic and the under. so my model expects KState to score less than the odds expect. frankly I didn't watch them enough to know if this is a reasonable assumption or not
Feel like this is another 2-1 lock (6 in a row for the twitter picks)
let me know if Booker might still be on a sub 30 min restriction
if not, I figure with the traded away pieces + no Durant, it should leave Booker with plenty of usage driving PTS, AST and MIN drives REB
Halliburton is out and the Pacers can’t let TJ McConnell play even 20 minutes? coaching malpractice
reminds me of how i hated Rick Carlisle’s face in the 1987 NBA almanac that i spent countless hours memorizing as a teen.
Feels good for
@SportsLine
to get first A rated ATS pick of the college football season. Still think the under was the right call based on 75% of the game flow. It is interesting how being right ATS seems to count 2x being right on totals
I am proudly the most superstitious person in the industry. It worked yesterday, despite Tarleton's multiple double digit leads (i think)
feel bad for SE Louisiana, UTEP and North Florida. They don't have a chance
These 3 picks go against my recent grain.
- Banking on Jordan Poole to help contain Dame Lillard
- Playing unders on low player lines (just 3.5 reb, just 2.5 ast)
But there is a method and reasoning behind the madness
my twitter picks have gone 2-1 every day this week (5 days). i'm never going to complain about 67%, although most were -125 on avg but i still feel I got robbed. i'm talking to you Walker Kessler and your inability to get 10+ reb and Lauri Markkanen coming under 24.5 with 20 FGAs
our
#insidethelines
college football best values based on 'bad lines' are off to a strong 8-0 start today
hit McCarthy over 14.5 rush yd despite starting with 3 sacks for -19 yards
@JakeFetner
would deserve a raise if he hadn't made me deliver 'his' plays on friday.
While I am pleased to 'snap' the 2-1 streak with a 3-0 on these player props, I'm aggravated by the Suns who dropped another home game ATS and SU dropping my model's ATS record to just 2-4 when picking Phoenix to cover the spread as home dogs.
if KD plays the rest of the way I
last 8 days
2-1
2-1
2-1
2-1
2-1
2-1
2-1
2-1
What are the odds of another 2-1? Or the odds of going 2-1 for 9 straight days? I should be the one most equipped to calculate this but I also decided to do a little day drinking with the wife I've neglected during the football season.
i’m going to be the first to put this amazing fact out
the Raiders have the all time record for most points scored after getting shut out in the modern era of the NFL
correlation is not causation but the correlation between Russell Wilson without him and Geno Smith with him (led conf in cmp and Td) is startlingly impressive. also like he is used to an offense that is still run first
The NBA can claim players (and fans) 'love' the in-season tournament and maybe it gets players to play but it looks like it immediately translates to massive load management rest days
tonight no: Giannis, Kyrie, Jaylen Brown, Porzingis
w/ Embiid, Lebron, AD more doubtful by the
that final Durant rebound was a very sweet way to go 3-0
also i have a growing concern over Doncic’s increasing pudginess. he’s an awesome player but is reminding me of the great John “Hot Plate” Williams who was a do everything point forward for my Bullets teams of my youth.
Relying on
@KDTrey5
to carry me to another 2-1 in the Suns-Mavericks game.
learning to love and appreciate the 2-1 NBA "rut". As long as the gambling gods keep delivering I'll keep posting early on Twitter until I do something wrong and break the cycle.
No really good way to present this but these are NFL futures with the latest
@CaesarsSports
odds, their implied %s and the sim model %s. When the sim% is higher than the implied % then that is good value. When identifying good win totals make sure to factor in the o/u juice
I like Herbert over 0.5 INT -109. He did not throw any in WK1. They were protecting a large early lead, but he had at least 1 in 9 of his previous 12. No K. Allen and expect him to be in a shootout with a lot of high reward / high risk passes. Good TD:INT ratio but still 1+ INT
Should be fun doing our first public SportsLine Model Show.
I'll peel back the curtain and admit that some of the topics have been discussed in private pilot episodes.
I'm warning
@JohnBollman11
@JakeFetner
@EasilyDerrick
@kenzbrooksbets
that they better react positively to a
sorry to keep whining, but Lamar's injury was supposed to be 1 to 2 weeks. Mahomes high ankle sprain / looked like a broken fibula is supposed to be 6 weeks
but Lamar is the one who misses 6+ weeks and Mahomes misses 1 quarter
thought the eye test had TEN winning by 21. i thought i was exaggerating. They are up to 79% to win and a good value even at -260. Also covering live -8.5 at 65%, but no reason to double dip if you were able to get them at +3.5 way back 8 min of game time ago.
Stephen’s NBA model is by far the most profitable of all the sports we have up 47-22 +22u already this season…
HIGHLY suggest giving him a follow to see anything it spits out!
I know
- Mavs dominated in playoffs
- Suns have been bad w/o Booker
But
- Suns have covered 5 of 6
- Ayton is playing
- Christian Wood is probably out
- Mavs 8-15 SU, 7-16 ATS on road, PHO 15-10 at home ATS, 18-7 SU
Suns -1 at -110 seems like a decent play
last 8 days
2-1
2-1
2-1
2-1
2-1
2-1
2-1
2-1
What are the odds of another 2-1? Or the odds of going 2-1 for 9 straight days? I should be the one most equipped to calculate this but I also decided to do a little day drinking with the wife I've neglected during the football season.
@SportsLine
You mobile only youngsters only need a graphic and/or a podcast soundbite, but I know us old (school) folks appreciate more detailed analysis written in full sentences.
This extended format also allows me to build in excuses for incorrect picks. It's not me, it's them.
it may be bad for social media engagement but there’s a reason why i started tweeting 6 months ago after 9 years of radio silence. it wasn’t to actually engage in social platforms but to get people to consider signing up for
@SportsLine
and getting all the picks
@JohnBollman11
and
@JakeFetner
can tell you exactly why but these are the numbers as of now for the MLB Wildcard series and overall postseason futures.
@jonas_shaffer
the problem is I knew exactly what we were about to do and i was watching on a fuzzy 2 inch view of a control room 16 game view. i’m not exactly Ray Lewis when it comes to sniffing out plays.
i gotta admit. that Breece Hall 35 yard rec was incredibly important to me right now.
restored my faith in myself
i’m in too deep. happens every november when work peaks, daylight is limited, ravens disappoint in unimaginable ways
one month ago there were literally 5 million people in NYC alone who thought Daniel Jones was better than Lamar Jackson (15 million for tri-state area)
after the comeback vs Arizona there probably was still 4 million in NYC
i wonder what life would be like to have such
I know i'm happy because the team went a combined 20-9, +7.4 units on all of our Friday CFB+NFL player props
also got KC -3.5, TEN-IND Under (missed BUF -5)
Being more public with the picks and not just sticking behind the SportsLine paywall is making
had my recent 8 day 2-1 streak and now back on a 3 day 2-1 streak. Had a few 1-2 days (no 0-3s) after whining / humble bragging about the 2-1s. punishment from the gambling gods.
focusing on fading the public and 'smart money' on the under in the Cavaliers-Celtics. With value
that's what I thought. fibula is fairly thin.
i'm not a doctor, but I am 1st generation korean with a doctor father and brother so I basically am a doctor.
I apologize to LSU. Falsely thought they only cared about football and their players didn't do any actual school activities. It's clear from their performance today that they have been working hard on their academics all summer long and are 100% focused on making the Dean's list.
Committed a sports pick sin last night by only watching the 1st half of the Jazz-Blazers game despite fading Markkanen on his pts, reb. gambling gods did not punish me and I didn't wake up to 35 and 15 but instead just a 24 and 4.
eyeing Vucevic u12.5 reb, Randle u25.5, Al o8.5
i had the same number of drinks as cam akers had yards in that first half. i don’t think i can have 44 in the second but if that’s what it takes i’ll die trying
Assuming Ja Morant does not play tomorrow I still don't think the Warriors should be favored on the road, especially given how well Memphis played last season without Morant.
maybe in an attempt to go 2-1 I have 3 picks for Atlanta at Washington where 2 (Murray overs) might run
live value on Warriors to cover -9.5
pretty big ML disparity with FanDuel at -530 and Draftkings just -360
said this before, but NEVER live bet a favorite on FanDuel. they are juiced a good 20% more than the other sportsbooks
the astronaut Reid Weissman they just showed on the game went to my high school and his older brother Billy was friends with my older brother
Billy tried to fart on everyone at the sleepover at my house in ~1981... didn't like him
if the only bet that hits tonight is Vucevic under 12.5 reb (never in doubt by the way) i may have a new unbeatable system when you consider last nights Markkanen unders. fade foreign born bigs. now that is some A+ advanced stats/machine learning algorithmic modeling
Brock Purdy is playing like a 7th round pick...
oh wait, he is a 7th round pick
ps. I'm usually not this obnoxious and I like the 49ers but when I do something (puff out my chest) and it correlates to good Ravens play i keep it up and then some