Well deserved recognition Prof
@RAbdiAnalyst
. Those privileged enough to know the man truly appreciate and respect what you stand for and defend. Kudos
Ethiopian trolls call me "terrorist". Rest of the world gives me accolades for "defending human progress and civilisation" and thought leadership on counter-terrorism.
Thanks to the Arab League, University of Naif, and the Kenyan National Counter-terrorism Centre (NCTC).
#Ethiopian
PM Abiy Ahmed is expected to visit Berbera this week to finalise the MoU between Ethiopia and
#Somaliland
over port access and recognition. Demeke Mekonnen, Deputy PM, has already arrived in Hargeisa. Abiy will be the first sitting Ethiopian leader to visit Somaliland
Sahan categorically and comprehensively rejects yesterday's verdict of the Banaadir regional court; we don't need to break any laws in the course of our research and we have never done so. Full statement below.
What does Fano stand for? A deeper dive into the myriad origins of today's Fano, the militia fighting the Federal Government of Ethiopia in the Amhara region. To read more editorials such as these, subscribe to our daily publications--
#Amhara
#Fano
Pro-Ethiopian and anti-Egyptian demonstrations have been staged in South West State amid escalating internal and diplomatic tensions over the future and troop composition of the new peacekeeping mission. FMS administrations have voiced support for the continuation of 1/2
The Sheba leather factory in Tigray has been completely destroyed due to the war according to an assessment done by the Confederation of Ethiopian Trade Unions. The factory employed 1200 people whose current status is unknown.
Kenyan President William Ruto has appointed Abdiweli Muhamed Hussain as High Commissioner to Hargeisa, Somaliland. This move signals a positive step in cooperation between
#Kenya
and
#Somaliland
, which has been striving for international recognition for over three decades.
After 10 years,
#Egypt
has officially withdrawn from Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam tripartite negotiations. The move follows months of stalemate and worsening relations with
#Ethiopia
.
Our editorial yesterday on the passage of the revisions to Chapters 1-4 of
#Somalia
’s Provisional Constitution and why it is not the historic success that some have claimed it is.
Two British Conservative MPs have travelled to
#Somaliland
, where they pledged support for its independence. The Government of Somaliland regards itself as the successor state to British Somaliland.
Former Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo's driver has reportedly defected to Al-Shabaab after selling a bulletproof car and fleeing to Jubaland. Just a few months ago, another driver to a former speaker of parliament also joined the militant group.
Does the new Turkey-Somalia maritime security pact radically change the rationale for Somaliland and Ethiopia's MoU? Most likely not for several reasons. Principal among them are the close bilateral ties between Ethiopia and Turkey.
Yesterday’s timely editorial in the Ethiopian Cable by
@DrChTouati
on the gold rush in
#Tigray
, its surfacing political crisis, and IMF reforms in Ethiopia.
How the battle for gold in northern Ethiopia is more than resource extraction and what the NEBEs reforms mean for Tigray.
Resettlement is taking place in various areas of Amhara region, in occupied Western Tigray. 16,000 households have been transported from Gojam, Armachoho and Northern Gonder.The purpose is reportedly to change the demographics of the controversial territory writes
@tigraitv
AMISOM to ATMIS to AUSSOM-- a new multilateral peacekeeping force under the AU has been approved. The total number will be 12k personnel. With security still deteriorating, even this number is likely too small to secure much of the country.
In today's Somali Wire piece, we shed light on how the Somali government's discrimination against minority communities, like the Bantu, and selective justice undermine the fight against Al-Shabaab.
“The insurgency in Oromia predates the conflict in Tigray… The new Oromo discontent is impelled by a profound sense of betrayal & disaffection with the Abiy admin.” An important piece on the ongoing conflict in Oromia. Today's editorial in the Ethiopia Cable.
Fano is an Amhara nationalist militia, responsible for displacing thousands of civilians across Tigray, Oromia, and Benishangul-Gumuz. Repeated attempts to disband the decentralised militia have so far failed, with the group maintaining a popular base among the Amhara
Today Editorial of the Somaliwire recognizes the achievements of the late GREAT
@engyarisow
while also touching on the adoption of extremist agendas as a norm in Somalia.
Join us for an intensive training seminar on Somalia, with a series of uniquely informed, in-depth presentations on the root causes, structural influences, and proximal drivers of the 🇸🇴 crisis, with ample opportunity for questions and discussions with our experts. Link in bio
Save your spot today for our 2-day intensive and interactive training seminar on Somalia. Examine Somalia’s trajectory from the colonial period through independence into state collapse and civil war, emphasising on today's challenges in an international context. Link in bio
Talks between Ethiopia-Somalia set to commence in
#Ankara
over the Somaliland-Ethiopia MoU that would grant the latter sea access in exchange for sovereign recognition. Turkey has been pushing both sides to come to an agreement after previous talks ended acrimoniously.
#Ethiopia
has dismissed the
#Arab
League statement criticising its MoU with Somaliland, calling in "an attempt to interfere with the internal affairs & sovereignty of Ethiopia." Insists that the Arab League serves the "interest of few."
Ethiopia's Council of Ministers have announced an immediate State of Emergency in the
#Amhara
region following deadly clashes between Fano militants and security forces. Reports of heavy weapons use, blocked internet access, and significant violence across the region.
According to the Tigray Interim Administration, Eritrean forces remain entrenched in several woredas and kebeles. The new administration said that it could not take full control of the region while Eritrean and Fano forces continue to occupy a substantial part of Tigray.
Tensions between the regional South West administration and
#Mogadishu
are further likely to increase as a result of this push for the ENDF to withdraw. Particularly considering that the Somali National Army does not have the capacity to fill the vacuum of the withdrawing forces.
Despite calls for reinstatement, the
#Ethiopian
federal government has decided not to restore hundreds of Tigrayan police officers removed during the
#Tigray
conflict. Human Rights First Ethiopia has revealed that 730 federal police and 540 Addis Ababa police remain sidelined.
Sahan is pleased to announce our upcoming Training Seminar on Sudan on the 11-12 June. Speakers will include Prof. Alex de Waal and Prof. Rashid Abdi. Register your interest via this link:
Earlier this week, clan militia looted 2 trucks of weapons imported by businessman close to HSM administration.
The incident constitutes most serious case of proliferation and arms trafficking.
The Somali Wire looks at the Abudwaq arms looting and its implications.
In a widely expected move, Jubaland's regional parliament has voted to extend presidential terms and remove the two-term limit, allowing incumbent Ahmed Madoobe to run again. Madoobe has led Jubaland since its formation in 2013.
The
#Tigray
Interim Administration has rejected federal calls for a referendum to resolve the ongoing occupation of western Tigray by
#Amhara
forces. Well over a million Tigrayans have been displaced from western Tigray since 2020 and remain unable to return to their homes.
In today's
#TheSomaliWire
editorial: 'The Breaking of the Baidoa Agreement,' we explore how
#VillaSomalia
's decision to delay South West State elections is backfiring amid escalating tensions.
Read more here:
Our editorial last Friday on the possibility of negotiations between Somalia's federal government and Al-Shabaab in The Somali Wire. To read more editorials like the one below, contact info
@sahanresearch
.net for more details.
Somalia is embarked on a fraught path towards negotiations with Al-Shabaab brokered by Qatar.
In this commentary in The Somali Wire, Matt Bryden looks at what a settlement with AS might look like, who wins, who loses.
Best analysis you will read on this topic for a long time.
United Nations Security Council announces a one-month delay to withdrawal of 3,000 African Union forces while negotiations happen between AU and Government of Somalia.
Talks between senior Ethiopian and Somali officials have begun in Ankara today as mediators seek to cool diplomatic tensions over the Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU. Villa Somalia is purportedly preparing to offer the use of Hobyo Port if Addis withdraws from the MoU.
#Tigray
's Irob district official says that despite the Pretoria agreement between Tigray and
#Ethiopia
,
#Eritrea
's army still occupies 60% of the district. The road to
#Adigrat
remains closed by the Eritrean army. This comes amid a punishing drought and limited international aid
Day Two at Sahan Training Seminar on Sudan. Alex de Waal, Kholood Khair, and Jonas Horner discussing the lessons of previous peace tracks for today’s armed conflict. Emphasis on the importance of ‘defining the problem,’ listening to the Sudanese, and unifying mediation.
#ATMIS
has announced that it will now withdraw 3,000 soldiers from Somalia and hand over ten Forward Operating Bases to Somalia's security forces by 2023's end. The delay in September followed major losses to the Somali National Army in August.
Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi has said that the Ethiopia-SL MoU would “allow Somaliland to support international efforts to secure freedom of navigation in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.” Vessels have come under repeated attacks from Yemeni Houthi rebels in recent months
intv-ken-Matt Bryden14-271221 | Al Jazeera Media View. Watch Sahan Research’s Strategic Advisor on
@AlJazeera
as he unpacks the ongoing political situation in Somalia.
In the latest incident in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, a UK-owned ship has been hit by rocket fire. The unnamed Bahamas-flagged vessel was “struck by a rocket” while sailing off Yemen’s western coast, the maritime security firm Ambrey has said.
Somalia’s armed forces court sentenced 3 traditional elders to a 5yr sentence after the defendants met and reached an agreement with Al-Shabaab. This sentencing is the first of its kind against such dealings with AS, another effort by the FGS to tighten the noose around AS.
The
#UN
Security Council is due to vote on lifting Somalia's arms embargo. The council is expected to adopt two British-drafted resolutions today, diplomats have said. One to fully remove the arms embargo on
#Somalia
and another to reimpose an arms embargo on Al Shabaab.
Friends, colleagues, and Excellencies at the re-launch meeting of the Sahan and IGAD ‘Countering-Improvised Explosive Devices’ project at the US Embassy in Nairobi. Great turnout and support for a sensitive and important project that developed a regional C-IED strategy.
The Somali Civil Aviation Authority has issued warnings to Fly Dubai and Ethiopian Airlines for actions perceived as undermining Somalia's sovereignty, ordering them to resolve these issues by August 23, 2024, or face suspension of all flights to Somalia.
Talks between the Ethiopian government and the Oromo Liberation Army have begun in Zanzibar, according to an IGAD spokesperson. Negotiations facilitated by the Norwegian and Kenyan governments are aimed at resolving the Oromia conflict peacefully.
Read below our editorial today on the constitutional review process in Somalia and the apparent lack of scrutiny. To read more editorials like this- subscribe to our publications here:
Burundian African Union forces handed over a Forward Operating Base to Somali forces on Sunday. The transition marks the beginning of the 2nd round of the drawdown of
@ATMIS_Somalia
, which will withdraw 3,000
#AU
peacekeepers by the end of September.
The US suspends food rations to Danab, Somali special forces unit, due to corruption scandal. Fuel support may also be halted pending further investigations.
Drought and hunger are worsening in
#Ethiopia
's Afar region. At least 330,000 are in need of emergency food aid, while the Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission has said that over 50k quintals of food aid will be needed in the next two months.
The Somali government has rejected Ethiopian Airlines' request for a 2-day extension, stating that the airline must remove references to Somaliland within the 24hr timeline or face suspension of operations.
The 2024 Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community has warned that despite the Pretoria agreement that ended a two-year war in Ethiopia, the "unresolved territorial issues could lead to a resumption of conflict." Eritrean and Amhara forces occupy a swathe of Tigray.
Welcome to our new periodic podcast ‘Pathfinders!’ In the first episode, Lynn Fredriksson and Rashid Abdi discuss Somalia’s security situation ahead of the federal governments offensive against Al-Shabaab. Click below to listen!
Civil and military leaders of the TPLF have been released from prison. Among those confirmed to have been released are Keria Ibrahim, Dr. Abraham Keste, and Dr. Addisalem Balema, all members of the TPLF Executive Committee.
The Federal Government of
#Somalia
has formally written to the UN Security Council requesting a three-month “technical pause” in the drawdown of 3,000 AU forces. The government reportedly cited recent military setbacks in central Somalia and logistical setbacks as the cause.
Ugandan President Museveni about former Kenyan PM Raila Odinga's candidacy for AUC Chair- “A young man from Djibouti came to tell me he was their candidate. I greeted him warmly, we took photographs, and had a cup of tea. But I told him I was coming to Kenya to support Raila."
Ethio-Djibouti public diplomacy consultation forum is underway in Addis Ababa, bringing together hundreds of delegation members. Discussions focus on migration, climate change, Ethiopia's Green Legacy initiative, and responses to climate-induced impact.
#Ethiopia
#Djibouti
Police have arrested 7 bishops leading the “Oromia Orthodox Synod” in
#Bishoftu
. This comes amid widening religious rifts within the ancient Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Synod. The Orthodox Church in Tigray split earlier this year and has anointed its own bishops
#Ethiopia
#EOTC
Catriona Laing, the United Nations Special Representative of the Secretary-General for
#Somalia
, will be leaving her post on 21 May 2024, having served just one year in post. The reasons for her departure are confirmed, but the announcement comes amid tensions with
#Mogadishu
.
#Somalia
's President Hassan Sheikh convened a special cabinet meeting to address Somalia's devastating flood crisis. With more than 31 lives lost and hundreds of thousands displaced, urgent assistance is crucial.
the Ethiopian military deployment against a resurgent Al-Shabaab. Mogadishu continues to push for Egyptian support, accusing Addis of violating its sovereignty through the MoU with Somaliland. 2/2
PM Abiy Ahmed approved Getachew Reda's appointment as interim leader of the Tigrayan administration. Getachew, as a member of the TPLF Executive Committee was the ubiquitous spokesperson of the Tigray resistance and the principal negotiator and signatory of the Pretoria Agreement
#Somalia
and
#Qatar
have signed another agreement, this time on legal cooperation. Relations between the two countries have rapidly deepened in recent months, particularly since the appointment of Somalia's former MoIS, Doodishe, as ambassador.
Turkey and Djibouti have signed three defence cooperation agreements this week. This follows the Turkey-Somalia defence pact that was ratified by the federal parliament and ministers yesterday. Rising tensions and competing alliances on the Red Sea continue unabated.
Want to read a daily analysis of Somalia and the Horn of Africa? Subscribe to our publications at for a one-month free trial. Our topics cover governance, security, elections, economics, and humanitarian crises, among others, in this tumultuous period.
A senior Al-Shabaab leader, Nur Abdullahi, has surrendered to the Somali National Army Forces. He was the former senior commander of AS in the Mudug region. The federal government has extended amnesty to Al-Shabaab defectors amid its ongoing offensive campaign
#Mudug
#Somalia
#Qatar
Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani has met with Somalia's Acting Foreign Minister Ali Mohamed Omar. Their meeting comes amid spiralling tensions between UAE-backed
#Ethiopia
and Somalia.
Tigray's Interim Administration in
#Ethiopia
has insisted that there is no agreement to hold a referendum to re-determine its borders with the neighbouring Amhara region. Well, over a million people have been displaced from Western Tigray, and Amhara forces occupy the region.
The SNA has seen a significant setback in its offensive against Al-Shabaab in central Somalia. Meanwhile, ATMIS plans to withdraw a further 3,000 forces next month. With Operation Black Lion also in flux, there are serious concerns about the country’s offensives in coming months
Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni arrived in
#Nairobi
two nights ago after a 50-day absence, mainly in the
#UAE
. He plans to meet with UNSOM head and South West President Laftgareen. The regional presidents are facing significant internal opposition over electoral processes.
#Somalia
's controversial NISA director, Mahad Salad, is expected to step down in the coming days and run for president of
#Galmudug
. The regional presidential election is expected in the coming weeks, with current President QoorQoor ramping up preparations.
Today's editorial on Sahan’s Ethiopia Cable focuses on the unconscious bias in reporting by international media on the need for more critical reporting on Tigray's existential struggle against the Ethiopian government's attempts to bombard and starve its people into submission.
As Somalia’s strategic Hobyo port gears up for a $70M modernization, The Somali Wire Issue 743 explores how the new port will impact regional trade, security, and competition with other key Somali ports
Read more here:
South West State opposition politicians have met with Mukhtar Mohamed, the
#Ethiopian
Ambassador to
#Somalia
in Mogadishu. They reportedly discussed the upcoming regional presidential elections and concerns over SWS President Laftagareen's potential use of force.