We welcome the announcement of an IMF program. This demonstrates the confidence that the international community has in Zambia’s ability to turn the page from unsustainable debt to prosperity and growth. To the public and our creditors, we will not disappoint! 🇿🇲
Congratulations to 🇿🇲 President
@HHichilema
& his team on the $1.3 billion IMF program approved by the IMF Board today.
We’re proud to support Zambia’s homegrown reforms and actions to help build a better future for all Zambians.
I’m pleased to announce that the govt & IMF have reached a staff level agreement on a programme under the IMFs Extended Credit Facility.
On Monday I will have a joint press briefing with IMF mission chief, Allison Holland during which details will be provided + a Q&A.
An important milestone for
#Zambia
today: we have reached an agreement on a comprehensive debt treatment with our Official Creditors under the G20 Common Framework. This marks a significant step towards restoring Zambia's long-term debt sustainability and economic growth.
🇿🇲
Today
#Zambia
has reached an agreement on a debt treatment with our official creditors – a significant milestone in our journey towards economic recovery & growth. On behalf of the people of Zambia, I thank our official creditors for their continued engagement & support. 🇿🇲
I have indeed apologized.
However, when I spoke of youth in that instance, I was talking about the young ones in primary & secondary schools. The vast majority of whom have to walk unacceptable distances to schools where they sit on the floor in thatched classrooms.
@S_Musokotwane
@lionheartNawa
Ok boss Ka apology is needed because just that Ka statement is tantamount to the Kandolo statement that was made before the elections
I will give a ministerial statement on debt restructuring progress, the IMF supported program and other economic matters tomorrow in the National Assembly.
Several other media events will take place thereafter. Please take note of the calendar below.
I can confirm that we are still very much on track. Having reached the staff level agreement, we are making good progress towards attaining the IMF board level agreement.
I’ll be giving a status update on progress tomorrow in the National Assembly.
Keeping with football as an example for economics. I’d like to address the importance of investment.
The world’s best football clubs are generally incorporated as either companies (owned as businesses) eg Arsenal or as cooperatives (owned by members of the club) eg Real Madrid.
In football terms:
If in the 2019-2020 season the cost to buy a player was $100 but in the 2020-2021 season it was $110; then annual inflation was 10% in that season. If in the 2021-2022 season the price was $115.5; then annual inflation in that season was 5%.
The issue of inflation dropping yet prices are still high is not what it sounds like.
The low inflation means that the rate at which the price of commodities is increasing has reduced. The prices are increasing, but at a slower rate compared to the same period last year.
Addressing this:
As you will know I have not made it a habit to speak to the past when dealing with the economic issues at hand.
We’ve put in a lot of work to remedy the problems, and progress has been made in this regard. Especially regarding debt restructuring and reform.
Dollar would have been at K40 if PF was still in office – Musokotwane
FINANCE and National Planning Minister Dr Situmbeko Musokotwane says sometimes, people are unneces
This is super cool. The Zambian Ministry of Finance and National Planning has published detailed updated debt figures through June 2021 broken down by creditor. You can view here: .
This level of transparency and communication is exactly what we need.
In the 90s I was a Director at
@BankofZambia
. The country was under significant stress from a debt crisis that had almost entirely destroyed the country’s productive capacity.
It was bad—currency printed for Zambia was being intercepted by vulture funds in foreign airports.
I have seen a number of questions like this one regarding inflation.
The answer is this. What is reported as “inflation” is the “Consumer Price Index.” This index consists of the basket of goods that a person typically consumes.
Yr 1
Inflation: 20%
Exchange rate: K25 to a $
Cooking oil: K180
Fuel: K18/L
Yr 2
Inflation: 9.7%
Exchange rate: 17 to a $
Cooking oil: K300
Fuel: K28/L
Please don’t air me, I’m trying to get an learn what is happening in this scenario? Btw Economy heavily dependent on imports
Mineral royalty has NOT been scrapped. It has been made tax deductible, as is the case in other mining nations—and was the case in Zambia in times prior.
UPND gifted mining companies $266million/pm by scraping off Mineral royalty tax and claim the $312million/pm subsidy on Fuel is unsustainable...
@HHichilema
@HarryKalaba
@S_Musokotwane
Ich hatte die Ehre, den Vertrag mit Botschafter
@EmbZambia
zu unterzeichnen, dem der Vertreter des deutschen Bundeskanzlers, Herrn Nooke, beiwohnte. Wir freuen uns auf die weitere Zusammenarbeit, während wir Handels- und Investitionsbeziehungen pflegen.
🇿🇲🇩🇪
Today we signed grant agreements worth €46.8 million with Min. of Finance
@S_Musokotwane
in the presence of 🇩🇪 Chancellor's Special Envoy for Africa.
Meanwhile, Gov-to-Gov consultations on shared future priorities for 🇩🇪🇿🇲 cooperation are already underway!
#Zambia
#cooperation
Very pleased the Official Creditor Committee for Zambia has provided its financial assurances clearing the way for a Fund program. This shows the potential of the
#G20CommonFramework
for debt treatment to deliver for countries committed to dealing with their debt problems. [1/2]
This afternoon I had the pleasure of being the ZNBC Sunday Interview guest. The interview will be aired on
#ZNBC
TV1 at 20:00 Hrs.
The topic:
Zambia's Enhanced Credit Facility with the
@IMFNews
.
Please watch the interview. If you have questions get in touch with
@mofnpzambia
.
RE concerns on the Fx rate. The concern is merited, however ultimately addressing this requires that we aggressively expand EXPORTS.
The big goal we have to deal with this is to aggressively expand copper mining output, manufacturing via MFEZs, and agriculture via farm blocks.
Addressing this:
As you will know I have not made it a habit to speak to the past when dealing with the economic issues at hand.
We’ve put in a lot of work to remedy the problems, and progress has been made in this regard. Especially regarding debt restructuring and reform.
Zambia does not have a monopoly on copper supply. The previous policy was at odds with prevailing global standards, and put Zambia at a disadvantage.
Our desire is to make Zambia the preferred destination for copper/cobalt investment.
We must be competitive.
What's the difference? And what makes it a better option?
Seems like the impact would be similar.
Deduct royalty paid from taxable income, then 'legit' declare losses and there after claim and accrue Deferred Tax Assets which make sure they never have to pay any further taxes
Regarding energy subsidies. I would like to provide some clarity on the issues.
1) There are existing arrears relating to the subsidies that remain unpaid. Arrears relating to fuel alone amount to >$400m.
2) Approx. $67m is ‘paid’ to support this (fuel) subsidy
@JohnTembo1982
I must stress again, there is >$400m in unpaid amounts owed to counter parties related to fuel subsidies. Zesco owes significant amounts for energy imports yet to have been paid.
Maintaining the subsidies would only grow these existing arrears.
For purpose of clarity:
Summary here does not reflect what was intended to be communicated.
The 2022 budget included allocations from the IMF grant already received in 2021.
2023 budget preparation requires that our debt be restructured, which is what I was referring to.
IF you have any questions regarding these policies. Please direct them to the Ministry of Finance & National Planning. Our email address is available, our Twitter account is active.
Hear it straight from us.
We will engage.
@JohnTembo1982
In any case, I regret the choice of words and any offense created.
I believe those who may have watched the totality of the conference will agree that we were forthright, represented the facts and did so in the spirit of transparency.
@sunshinechi1
The summary here was not worded correctly.
The 2022 budget included allocations from the IMF grant received in 2021.
2023 requires debt restructuring, which is what I was referring to.
The increase in CDF allocations here in Zambia has been our approach to enabling people to create cooperatives (like Real Madrid) that begin to grow and over time could become big players.
It’s a ladder for people who have often been left out to have a ladder to build & grow.
However as an Economist, I also must provide context for where we are relative to where we could have been. Policy does not exist in a vacuum. There is the path taken and there is the path forgone.
Please see below the details of the joint IMF-GRZ interactive forum regarding the staff level agreement.
This event is being held in the spirit of transparency & accountability. Please send your questions in advance via the channels indicated.
Livestream via Facebook.
Announcing the JOINT IMF-GRZ INTERACTIVE FORUM on staff level agreement. Event is on Monday 15Hrs @ Mulungushi Conference Center,
Live on TV & FB . Send advance questions/comments to treasurybriefs
@mof
.gov.zm or treasurybriefs
@gmail
.com.
@S_Musokotwane
@IMFAfrica
Please read the monthly bulletins to review the various inputs of the consumer price index. If you have questions about their metrology, please contact them or visit their offices.
@siphophiri
@SimumbaTrevor
@Nimrodnjamba
@FMwenge
Agreed. Only growth will resolve the economic challenges.
Notwithstanding, GRZ engagement with the IMF is a step towards normalizing our external debt situation by way of restructuring the same. It’s a step in a process, not the main destination.
Yesterday alongside colleagues from the IMF and authorities here, we hosted a press conference regarding the IMF staff agreement.
As noted then, this is the 1st step towards eventually working with our creditors to restructure the country’s existing debts.
It is a pleasure to be hosting the
@IMFNews
Deputy Managing Director in the Republic this week.
Yesterday she was hosted by HE
@HHichilema
at State House.
On Thursday Zambia will be meeting with the Official Creditor Committee.
Statement below.
Zambia has gone from fiscal deficits ranging at ~10% of GDP per annum to half that at 5% per annum and falling; whilst increasing investment in education and other social priorities. There is a lot of work still to be done, yes. We recognize this.
It is within this context that my comments were made. Specifically (again speaking as an economist) that in the absence of the reforms that have been made…the economic situation would be worse.
This isn’t to pat ourselves on the back or to blame shift.
In recent years we warned that the path the country was on was clearly leading us to the very real possibility of a repeat of the past.
Later today we’ll be discussing the first step towards undoing the damage of recent years.
So, using that example if the price of tomatoes rises by 10% but onions do not change… the basket index change will be 8%:
((4/5) x 10%) + ((1/5) x 0%) = 8%
@JohnTembo1982
Good morning. This short clip doesn’t reflect the thrust of what was communicated.
Yes fuel prices will go up and everything in the supply chain will be affected.
In this case football is like business in general, business owners whether domestic (like Real Madrid) or international (like Man City) ultimately want to do well.
The goal of governments is like the FA or La Liga: to create an environment to allow everyone to do well.
There is much work to do in this respect.
We look forward to discussing our critical first step at our joint press event with the IMF mission chief this afternoon.
For a government, this balance is similar to the need to provide local players (people & businesses) with the same advantages typically given to foreign players (multinationals). Much the same way that Real Madrid might play against a team like Man City in the Champions League.
It is why his government has emphasized the land linked nature of our republic. It is the opening up of a larger market for citizens to grow their opportunity. So that local players have every opportunity to grow, whilst foreign investment also enables that growth.
So whether the club is member owned or investor owned—ideally the rules must allow all clubs to thrive.
Thriving is also a competitive matter.
Why are some leagues more popular than others? Which leagues do best? Ultimately it is those which attract viewers & sell tickets.
Deflation occurs when everyone in an economy demands fewer goods; so prices come down. In such a situation the economy as a whole also shrinks.
Generally what economists prefer is low inflation. In such cases demand is growing and so an economy is also growing.
Spending or accruing bills amounting to $800m a year on fuel subsidies whilst children go to schools without desks, teachers or even decent roofing is morally unacceptable.
Spending $800m a year on fuel subsidies when there are clinics without medicine or staff is unacceptable.
The inflation came down, but the price to purchase a player rose.
If however the price to purchase a player had been $104.5; then that would be called *deflation*. In that situation the deflation rate would have been 5%.
The Zambian Kwacha had seen significant depreciation against all major currencies.
Inflation was very high, and the economy was totally distressed.
The country was locked out of international financial markets.
As we reform the economy our goal is to enable local players to grow and compete at the very highest levels.
This is why HE
@HHichilema
has been working to facilitate an opening up of the opportunity to export into markets like DR Congo.
@BankofZambia
competently prevented the attempts to intercept currency shipments in the 90s.
Reforms were implemented by the State; the economy recovered.
The New Dawn Administration intends to reform—AND to also boldly grow productivity; creating opportunity for all.
High inflation where prices are rising sharply year on year is not good. High inflationary situations generally erode purchasing power, which eventually hurts an economy.
Stability and predictable growth is what is preferred by economists.
Often these two groups are seen as being in opposition to each other. However they can and should be complementary to each other.
Local businesses when they grow can export goods to foreign ones, or supply them locally. Likewise, foreign ones should do the same for local ones.
@Aaronkafunda
This was not a press statement. It was a response to questions during a press conference. The context of my meaning is what I’m referring to here.
That is why I have stated what the context was.
Context is part of human language, I think we can all agree about this.
Thanks.
Opportunity must be created for all citizens and this is a priority of the government. This is a big part of the reform agenda as pointed to in the 2024 budget.
We recognize that there is still a lot of work to be done.
It is a weighted basket, which means that if the person consumes 4 tomatoes and one onion. The basket would reflect that instead of saying for example 1 onion and 1 tomato.
As you can see, the effect of weighting affects the end number.
That same process is used across the very many products that people consume. Some goods may experience big movements in price but that might not necessarily be reflected in inflation numbers because of weighting.
Our plan has 4 pillars. Transforming the economy and creating jobs are two of the critical pillars at play in this instance.
Yes, supply chain costs will likely rise; but only at a point in time.
New investor flows into agriculture & mining should offset that.
This isn’t something Zambia hasn’t done before. This is exactly what happened after HIPC completion. The debt was restructured (forgiven in that instance), concurrently new investment in production took place (Kansanshi, Lumwana etc); the outcome was job growth, fx stability.
Real Madrid’s success is ultimately a consequence of performance. Although it is a member owned institution, it has operated at the highest level because that is what club members demand.
The same has been true for Arsenal, & Man City or PSG, which are owned by investors.
In theory that subsidy exists today; in practice it’s been a growing bill of arrears.
The removal of the subsides is an acceptance of the facts as they are. In practice it is putting an end to the growth in arrears.
We need to normalize the country’s finances.
@JohnTembo1982
I must stress again, there is >$400m in unpaid amounts owed to counter parties related to fuel subsidies. Zesco owes significant amounts for energy imports yet to have been paid.
Maintaining the subsidies would only grow these existing arrears.
We are pleased with the broad support we have received for our home grown economic program.
The domestic, bilateral and multilateral support for these programs, including education & social welfare is encouraging.
IMF's DMD Antoinette M. Sayeh: I had good meetings with President
@HHichilema
and Minister
@S_Musokotwane
in Lusaka 🇿🇲. Zambia's implementation to date of its homegrown economic program is impressive, including the authorities’ focus on education & social welfare.
Both of these clubs are extraordinarily successful. They are multi-billion dollar enterprises.
One (Real Madrid) is domestically owned. The other (Arsenal) is owned by international investors (Stan Kroenke is American). Both are successful models.
@JohnTembo1982
I mentioned in the presser that the state already owes >$400m related to fuel subsidies. The money to support these subsidies already does not exist. Budgeting for it is budgeting for a growing debt not an actual payment of anything.
In high inflation situations consumer prices generally can move up or down faster than wages. People in job markets revise wages on contractual basis vs goods in a shop or market where there is no contract between buyer and seller. As such high inflation reduces “real incomes.”
@EdgarMwango
@verusale
Sir. The first step in reforming the economy is dealing with the significant amount of inherited debt. We have made strides in this regard.
The next step is opening up the economy to allow the private sector to thrive. We are currently working on this.
Zambia’s economic challenges have been deep; whilst the foundations to remedy this via debt restructuring have shown great progress. The next critical step is MASSIVELY expanding overall national production.
The policy reforms we are engaged in at the moment are targeting this.
Good conversations yesterday on this medium. As mentioned then, I encourage all to engage their professional bodies, & industry groups to ensure that your opinions & ideas translate into policy considerations in the PPDF.
Please make the structures work for you.
GRZ-IMF MEDIA BRIEFING: Zambia is now getting closer to debt restructuring & to an
@IMF
programme - Finance Minister
@S_Musokotwane
. The IMF was represented by Antoinette Sayeh - Deputy Managing Director.
We will expect to see higher dollar supply and therefore improvements in purchasing power. The effects of subsidy removal should be neutralized with these flows. However reforms to policy precede the flows. Investors need to know we are fiscally responsible.
@JohnTembo1982
In that context, my question was this: are the youth net winners in the new arrangement? I believe they are. Yes the cost of everything will rise, at a point in time. But new investment into education and healthcare provides some assurance of a better future for youth.
@Gerald_495
Information regarding public finance continues to be shared via official channels on the
@mofnpzambia
website and via official press releases, press briefings and indeed in the National Assembly.
Progress is being made.
@JohnTembo1982
My point was that this will (unfortunately) disproportionately affect the working people and urban citizens more.
Citizens in rural areas who benefit less from supply chains, and are less mobile are less affected.
There is understandable concern about this and the impact to cost of living. Your concern is well understood & appreciated.
What is being done with subsidies should not be looked at in isolation. Efforts to increase productivity through increased investment are key.
@JohnTembo1982
HOWEVER, the youth in rural areas and in urban areas are currently forced to go to schools where student/teacher ratios are >50. Where students do not have desks, let alone libraries.
In the case of rural students, some school buildings look more like kraals than schools.
@mofnpzambia
is also open to all reform suggestions that sit within our ministerial purview. Please respond to the call for proposals that was recently published in newspapers.
@JohnTembo1982
Furthermore, our goal is to restructure all existing debts—this deal creates a foundation for that. This will create space for further human capital and social investment. Alongside our agenda to have copper and agricultural productivity grow—this should see capital flows rise.
Increasing copper exports requires new investment into mining. Increasing agricultural exports requires new investment into agriculture. Capital flows will come and they will come.
As I said in my very first press conference; as investor dollars come into the country..
@EdgarMwango
@verusale
It’s my hope that once the fruit of the reform process fully takes form, and opportunity is unlocked for all; including for you; that you come back here to give us an update of positive changes experienced. Until then, your criticisms have been noted and are valued.
Good day.
@JohnTembo1982
Our goal is to achieve that and more.
In summary, yes—at a point in time there will be price increases from supply chain costs rising. However in the medium term; those will be rebalanced.
This short clip omits everything else that was said.
Minister of Finance, Dr. Situmbeko Musokotwane, this afternoon visited the Bank of Zambia Pavilion at the ongoing Agricultural and Commercial Show in Lusaka. He was welcomed by Director - Banking and Currency, Mr. Lazarous Kamanga, and AD - Communications, Ms. Besnat Mwanza.
#BoZ
This is because if the price of tomatoes & other groceries in a market rise by 20%; if those are necessities the consumer generally will pay. However their own wage may only rise in the next contract cycle. So it means less disposable income. Eventually this slows down an economy
@MutamboHangford
I was offering context. Pre-2021 the fiscus was being monetized (money was printed to cover the previously large fiscal deficit). That was stopped. Had it continued, the outcome would have been a much greater depreciation. This was what I was referring to in the interview.
@JohnTembo1982
The eventual rise in capital flows into the country will rebalance purchasing power.
This isn’t new. We saw this in the mid-2000s. Capital flows into new mining developments plus HIPC completion event helped stabilize the exchange rate and purchasing power.
@Bicamms
@siphophiri
@muyaa_mbango
@SimumbaTrevor
@Nimrodnjamba
@FMwenge
Your point is noted. However, there is no expectation that this will take 20-30 yrs.
We are 9 months in, and whilst there is a lot to be done—progress is being made. The solutions are being implemented.
10yrs worth of economic vandalism can’t be undone in 9months.