ICYMI: "“Nothing gets solved until the politics get resolved. And more worryingly, nothing may get solved even after the politics settles down," says
@cyalm
in an interview with SAV on Pakistan's political future.
NEW on SAV:”Pakistan’s response to Balakot was aimed not only at acting against India’s effort to extend the threshold for military retaliation & push Pak’s redlines but also to delegitimize Indian action as purely driven by political needs“:
@UmairJamal15
New on SAV:
@AfeeraFirdous
interviewed Feroz Khan on his landmark new book on India-Pakistan strategic relations, Subcontinent Adrift: Strategic Futures of South Asia.
Listen to the interview available at South Asian Voices.
ICYMI:
@MishraSylvia
argues that
#Balakot
is a fundamental shift in India’s own brand of a deterrence by punishment strategy. This approach of “hitting where it hurts” may continue to be India’s response of choice in the future.
NEW on SAV:
@ladhuchoudhary
writes about the key determinants of doctrinal change in the Indian Army, in a review of
@clary_co
’s article on the personalities, organizations, and doctrines of the Indian Army.
NEW on SAV: Multi-alignment is the new buzzword in India’s foreign policy discourse but it may have to pay the opportunity cost of choosing certain partnerships over another, as can be seen in complex
#India
-
#Iran
-
#US
dynamics, argues Monish Tourangbam.
Re-up: As difficult as moving beyond a "mutually distressing" relationship might seem now, both
#Pakistan
and the
#US
would be wise to find common ground on which to act in parallel, if not in concert, writes Micheal Krepon.
New on SAV: "In the current context of the two-front threat, nuclear ambiguity helps India leverage its nuclear deterrent – without actually resorting to nuclear weapons," writes
@aliahd66
after India's Agni-P missile test.
From December 2018:
@iamsaniya_close
writes, "With no No-First-Use affirmation, Pakistan’s build-up of offensive capabilities under a nuclear warfighting force posture is a recipe for possible nuclear use."
ICYMI: Recent high-level engagements between Washington and Islamabad signal a shifting tide in U.S.-Pakistani relations.
Visiting Fellow
@namrathisside
recommends sustaining the momentum by prioritizing economic cooperation.
ICYMI: "Due to the two-pronged threat to their livelihoods, border dwellers and nomads are selling their livestock, leaving their villages, and migrating to larger towns, like Leh," writes
@zainabzingpa
.
NEW on SAV: "By understanding Kathmandu’s domestic aims and regional balancing, both New Delhi and Washington can play to their strengths and maximize the developmental impact of their projects in Nepal," writes
@_RiyaSinha
.
“It is time for Pakistan to think strategically and practically about its goals, which should include establishing a stable economy and solidifying its democratic institutions to give itself more flexibility in its foreign policy,” writes
@khansahar1
.
From April: “With no No-First-Use affirmation, Pakistan’s build-up of offensive capabilities under a nuclear warfighting force posture is a recipe for possible nuclear use,” states
@iamsaniya_close
.
Monish Tourangbam observes, "The India-Pakistan-China triangle is determined by relative national power and mutual threat perceptions, further complicated by the regional implications of the growing confrontation between the United States and China."
New on SAV:
@iearthboi
and
@f_aider
examine the impact of the devastating floods in Pakistan on the country's "comprehensive national security" framework.
From the Archives: In this collection of South Asian Voices essays, authors from 🇮🇳, 🇵🇰, and the 🇺🇸 review the implications of the missile launch, how it happened, why relative calm ensued, what the crisis reveals about India-Pakistan relations.
From June: "Russia’s ongoing outreach to Islamabad is a far cry from Moscow acting as India’s traditional bulwark against Pakistan’s anti-India advocacy," writes
@rajorshiroy7
.
ICYMI:
@rajorshiroy7
argues, "While it is undeniable that Russia’s previously unreserved support of India’s strategic concerns has become more measured, it would be presumptuous to write off this partnership as it still remains mutually beneficial."
NEW on SAV: "There are two courses of action: either relations improve or...both sides (engage) each other where they find convergence."
@ejazhaider
writes about what it would mean for Pakistan to lose major non-NATO ally status.
New on SAV: "A brief assessment of the Maldives’ stance on the Chagos issue indicates that the country has had no coherent strategy," writes Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy.
From the Archives: How did the 🇺🇸 respond to 🇵🇰 and 🇮🇳's nuclear tests in 1998?
This SAV Explainer pieces together the details, aided by expert analysis from practitioners and scholars on
@stratlearning
.
SAV Series: “For a country [India] that believes in deterrence through punishment, not denial, the taboo will continue to be important,” suggests
@manpreetsethi01
in her review of Nina Tannenwald’s policy paper “23 Years of Nonuse.”
NEW on SAV: Colonel David Smith of
@StimsonCenter
, in a new
#ExpertsKiRai
response to SAV's Strategic Direction or Drift series, evaluates India and Pakistan's strategic narratives and their implications for regional stability.
Applications for the 2019 cohort of the SAV Visiting Fellowship are now live until February 10! Apply to gain extensive exposure to the DC-based policy community over 2 months at
@StimsonCenter
in Washington this summer.
NEW on SAV:
@sattarical
and
@IshaLGupta
analyze the politico-economic crises in Sri Lanka and Pakistan through the lens of elite capture and the need for structural reform.
"Lack of public consultation on the fate of the Central Vista underscored the government’s authoritarian attempt to rewrite history and reshape national narratives through infrastructure projects...," argue
@KensiyaK
and Abhinav Padmanabhan.
New on SAV:
@NoorulainShiekh
and Hadiqa Sohail suggest that Pakistan should adopt similar tactics employed by Bangladesh to better incorporate women into the economy.
"It is, however, crucial to understand that nuclear security and physical protection is not a goal but a process that should continue to evolve incrementally," writes
@NoorSitara
as part of our joint series with
@crdfglobal
.
Year in Review:
@fiza555
writes that while Pakistan achieved some key foreign policy goals on the diplomatic front in 2020, next year is likely to pose more challenges for the country.
NEW on SAV: "...Indian leaders should apply lessons from Mexico’s implementation of a FFP."
@akankshakhullar
discusses how
#India
can learn from
#Mexico
in adopting cross-sectoral reforms to include gender issues in its policies.
"Although all eyes are fixed on the military stalemate in the Himalayas, it is equally important to take note of the political stalemate that has developed between the two countries," writes Antara Ghosal Singh on Indo-China competition.
From May 2021,
@arzandc
writes on the India-China border standoff. "Quite apart from the fait accompli on the ground, Ladakh will reverberate for years because of its effect on India’s strategic competition with China."
From September 2020: Joy Mitra writes, "In terms of missile technology, BrahMos is an advanced and versatile delivery system that is aimed at overwhelming China’s BMD capability."
📢 Interested in sharing your analytical perspective on the security, politics, and economics of South Asia 🇮🇳🇵🇰🇧🇩🇳🇵🇱🇰🇦🇫🇧🇹 🇲🇻? Write for
@SAVoices
! 🧵(1/4)
ICYMI: "Two pillars of Indian identity are in jeopardy: India’s diversity, embodied in Gandhi’s inclusive Hinduism, and its love, beauty, and acceptance, symbolized by the Taj Mahal," argues Dr.
@MuqtedarKhan
New on SAV:
@aditi_malhotra_
and
@UsamaNiz
compare the strategic autonomy between India and Pakistan, arguing that the subject remains one of the least analyzed and understood factors in foreign policy decisions and national interests formation.
NEW on SAV:
@Radhika_Halder
analyzes the critical security considerations that the
#Pulwama
attack presents for
#India
and the lessons the country must learn from it.
NEW on SAV: Three exercises undertaken by the Indian military recently suggest that
#India
may be gearing up for war in the
#nuclear
age, argues Ali Ahmed in our new expert column.
#ExpertsKiRai
Year in Review: "There are as yet no solutions on the horizon on the two most critical issues for the two neighbors—the Teesta river dispute and the continued killing of Bangladeshis by India’s Border Security Force at the borders," notes
@rafee_1493
.
"Debating the issue of Taliban recognition is not a purely academic exercise. Afghanistan’s devastating humanitarian crisis...underscores the real-world stakes at play," writes
@MichaelKugelman
.
SAV Series: “Crises like Pulwama burned the bridge that some civil society members were pleading to restore peace and strengthen nuclear nonuse norms,” argues
@iamsaniya_close
in her review of Nina Tannenwald’s policy paper “23 Years of Nonuse.”
"Improved relations between India and Pakistan best explain the absence of a crisis sparked by the misfired missile landing in Pakistan," writes
@aliahd66
.
"India’s once practiced policy of non-alignment has transformed into a policy of non-alienation, which requires it to not alienate any major bloc, group, or constituency in international forums," writes
@ThakkarChirayu
.
ICYMI:
@nilanthis
writes, "Outreach to address COVID-19 economic distress perpetuates the inaccurate perception that Sri Lanka is heavily indebted to China and is therefore prone to advancing Beijing’s geostrategic ambitions."
Are you an emerging scholar or analyst from South Asia? Do you want to write about strategic, political, or economic issues of the subcontinent? Submit your article ideas to southasianvoices
@stimson
.org!
In this cross-published piece with
@9DashLine
,
@John_Pollock22
writes, "Going into 2021 the IOR as a maritime environment will be a critical venue for cooperation as both India and France seek to balance a rising and truculent China in South Asia."
NEW on SAV: In a cross-published essay with
@Diplomat_APAC
,
@IshaLGupta
analyzes the ongoing political developments in Sri Lanka.
"Though protests have continued for nearly a month, the current government has taken few actions to respond."
New on SAV: Given India's heterogeneous political system, individual states have been left to manage India's extreme heat crisis.
@abhisvara_s
suggests that the central government should do more to consolidate state efforts.
New on SAV: "Given the lack of policy alternatives it can take, the Taliban can either continue its failed security-centric policy of the last four decades or engage with a wider group of non-violent actors in the region instead," writes
@ArashYaqin
NEW on SAV:
@SauravXSarkar
of
@ics_delhi
writes on Iran’s moves in the Afghan endgame, arguing that Tehran’s continued engagement with the Taliban since 2015 is intended to extend its leverage over Afghanistan’s government after American troops withdraw.
"There is no interest in either Beijing or Kathmandu for frontier tensions to disrupt wider relations, as the Kalapani dispute threatened to do with India."
@John_Pollock22
discusses China's relationship with Nepal along the Himalayan frontier.
“Both countries need to address the common problems of illiberalism and electoral mismanagement through legislative and practical measures,” argues
@Fiza555
.
NEW on SAV:
@fizza555
explores how Pakistan's proposal to seal the Durand Line would affect its professed support for pro-democracy actors in Afghanistan.
NEW on SAV:
@RudabehS
and Saurav Raj Pant analyze the need for Nepal to use its tourism sector to pursue its non-aligned geopolitical and economic goals.
From March:
@FathomsOne
writes, "While there has been no indication of a change in India’s nuclear doctrine, it is useful to both revisit the question of TNWs as a viable recourse for India."
NEW on SAV: "While China has sought to use economic statecraft to deepen ties with Pakistan, it is also quickly realizing that its influence has limitations," argues
@UzairYounus
.
📢 Applications for the 2023
@StimsonCenter
South Asia Program Visiting Fellowship are LIVE!
The incoming cohort of 🇵🇰 & 🇮🇳 fellows will conduct research on security and strategic issues in South Asia and write for
@SAVoices
.
Learn more ⬇️
"FATA’s ethno-geographic proximity to Afghanistan and its previous politically autonomous status have made it susceptible to spillover of ethnic conflict and terrorism from across the border," writes incoming Visiting Fellow Noorulain Naseem.
NEW on SAV:
@aliahd66
writes on the escalatory risks of India’s IBGs noting: “By embarking on IBGs India is making its military power usable. However, India would do well to acknowledge the resulting escalatory dimension and take prior precautions.”
South Asian Voices Turns 10! Thank you to our network of outstanding contributors and to our readers for their continued support. Join us in a month-long celebration of this milestone and read more about the past decade on SAV here:
#HappyBdaySAV
Zhang Li argues, "…The geopolitical alignments in the region is not the sole lens through which Beijing sees Indo-Pak tensions. This means China also intends to assess what has actually happened on its own merits before an apt policy choice calibrated."
NEW on SAV: By sticking with deterrence by punishment,
#India
exhibits an under-appreciation of the situation of mutually assured destruction that South Asia finds itself in today, argues
@aliahd66
in our series on strategic direction or drift.
NEW on SAV: Chatham House's
@John_Pollock22
analyzes how China's latest moves in Pangong Tso are consistent with a now recognized pattern of recent behavior in the Himalayas.
NEW on SAV: This month marks the 75th anniversary since South Asia underwent the violent Partition of the Indian subcontinent.
We asked our contributors to share personal reflections of how the legacy of Partition lives on in their own lives.
ICYMI:
@orfonline
Associate Fellow
@pulkit_mohan
writes on whether India is prepared to adequately handle cyber-threats in the nuclear domain, as part of the SAV-
@crdfglobal
essays on nuclear security.
"Perceiving the threat from the growing ties between India and the United States, China altered its stance from passive defense towards active defense."
Yubing Sheng writes on the Sino-Indian border standoff.
New on SAV: "By maintaining a positive image for itself in Afghanistan, India is opening channels to encourage the Taliban to accommodate its regional security priorities," writes
@Sarral_Sharma
NEW on SAV:
@aditi_malhotra_
analyzes the implications of the Russia-Ukraine war for India's military modernization.
"Regardless of the outcome of the war, Russia will be worse off as an arms exporter."
From August 2021: "By embarking on IBGs India is making its military power usable. However, India would do well to acknowledge the resulting escalatory dimension and take prior precautions," writes
@aliahd66
.
“The country’s gray-listed status adversely affects its economic activity, the inflow of remittances, and foreign investment,” discusses
@ShahrooMalik
in her latest piece for SAV.
#20Years
:
@DrRizwanaAbbasi
and Lubna Abid Ali argue that enhanced transparency in
#India
and
#Pakistan
's nuclear doctrines can further stabilize deterrence and build upon other improvements in bridging the trust deficit
"India’s continued lack of recognition of the changing reality of the Kashmiri freedom struggle remains an issue that could presage continued Indo-Pak crises in the coming years," writes
@Rabs_AA
.
"To ensure that China does not look to enforce such claims now, India will need to be proactive in safeguarding its territorial integrity, although this could lead to further frictions in Arunachal Pradesh," writes
@jppjagannath1
.
"The immediate, obvious concern for Pakistan’s internal security is the presence of the TTP across the border. And now we can’t even blame the NDS or RAW for that matter. It is the Afghan Taliban, pure and simple," says
@IKPeshawar
.