RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research @RenMacLLC Twitter profile

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

1 month

This is not a close call. The unemployment rate is climbing & payroll growth is slowing. Conditions in the labor market are cooling off. The trade-offs for the Fed have shifted. If they don't cut this month, they ought to make a strong signal a cut is coming in September.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

2 years

The Fed revising down growth, revising up unemployment and revising up inflation and also pushing up the path of interest rates. This is a recipe for recession.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

4 years

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

4 months

Sell in May and go away is wrong, and it's been wrong for a long-time on $SPX. Might be good for the golf game, but sell in July is a better market call. In Presidential election years, Q2 is much different path than traditional path.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

8 months

Core PCE inflation is up 1.87% at an annual rate over the last six months as of November. Between used car & truck prices and housing rents, there is room for inflation to remain benign. We continue to see the Fed cutting its policy rate in March.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

2 years

In the world of politics, Putin appears to be baiting Biden. If Biden pulls out of this weeks meeting, he walks out on diplomacy. If Biden attends and Putin invades further, Biden looks ineffective.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

2 years

In 1974, the $SPX made a 20-day low after a momentum thrust similar to last months. Same in 1962, in each instance it proved a retest, not an undercut low.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

6 months

There is a widening gap between "rent of primary residence" and "owners' equivalent rents." OER reflects the owned stock of homes and might be less sensitive to multi-family housing, as a result. At any rate, the gap between the two is unusual.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

10 months

Consensus Inc bulls in the bottom decile for the first time in almost a year. $spx

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

2 years

Escape velocity $SPX. The mkt characteristics (beta, cyclicals, etc) have been stronger than internal price data, until yesterday. 20-day highs hit our bullish threshold level. Bears take note: it doesn't happen in the midst of bear markets...Narrative will fry you.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

2 years

Lowest % bulls in this cycle. Close to matching 2016. When bulls this low historically, thinking about what can go right vs piling on the what can go wrong narrative in $SPX is usually best outcome. Then let momentum be your trigger.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

9 months

Overbought readings tend to trigger erroneous warning signs for the less initiated under the the false pretense of symmetry: "If oversold is good, overbought must be bad". Reality check: return distributions (below) of $SPX tend to smile and both OB/OS prove bullish.

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242

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

2 years

Before inflation peaks, expect 10yr yields to peak. Historically 10-year yields peak 6-8wks prior to peak inflation data for the cycle. 10-yr at cycle high 3.487% (+.127%) today in front of Fed. $TLT 😬

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

6 months

Not a crazy consumer. For all the talk about consumers dipping into savings and going off the rails with credit cards, real incomes ex transfers rose 3.1% while consumer spending rose 3.2%. Indeed, the saving rate rose a touch last year. Consumers are supported by income growth.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

4 months

Despite Friday's $SPX weakness, 68% of the Russell 3000 advanced on the day. That's a large divergence between external (price) and internal (constituents) readings.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

2 months

"Inflation is a lagging indicator. We cannot wait until inflation is down before we begin to act. We have to look at the future." Ben Bernanke

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

6 months

Our trend model has generated a capitulation signal on China's CSI 300 $FXI $MCHI. "Easy money" is always the hardest psychologically. You know where to find us....

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

6 years

SPX up 15% over last 38 calendar days since the low. Since 1957, the average rally before a retest during 19% declines was 14.5% over 36-days. Nothing too special about today.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

2 years

Sorry, but recessions don't happen when real incomes net of transfers are on the rise and this is up 3.2% annualized since June. Retail gasoline prices have declined about 25 cents per gallon so far in December. Thus, one should expect to see real incomes continue climbing.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

10 months

Real yields closing in on 2.50%. Anything above 2.25% starts to negatively impact $SPX with convexity (i.e. geometrically worse the higher it goes). #bondsstartingtocompete

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

1 month

Seasonality (forward 3m) for semis starts to deteriorate rapidly from here. The worst 3m forward seasonal returns for the group starts at the end of July, followed by the best 3m forward returns starting in early October. Beware the calendar $NVDA $SMH $SOX

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

5 months

Hawks on the FOMC can no longer point to the labor market as a rationale to be hawkish. In January, the total quits rate sank to 2.1%, a fresh cycle low. This means that labor cost pressures are likely easing (with all deference to the last average hourly earnings print).

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

4 months

$SPX is most vulnerable when the percentage above 200-day is contracting as price continues its upward ascent (i.e. 2021). That's not happening today.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

8 months

$SPX is well above the 12M price target of consensus strategists on the street. That's historically bullish for $SPX as strategists are forced to adapt a more accommodating narrative. Yes, price leads narrative, not vice-versa #knowthedata

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

5 months

The unemployment rate warrants attention. In the February NFIB, the percent of firms citing poor sales as their single most important problem jumped to 7, the highest since June 2021. Historically, this measure has seen a strong contemporaneous correlation with the jobless rate.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

7 months

The message from PPI is that core PCE will not come in nearly as firm as core CPI did. Using the inputs from CPI/PPI, we estimate core PCE of 0.2% MoM. Over the last 12 months, it is core PCE inflation is likely to come in below 3.0%.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

3 months

Strategist forecasts for $SPX reaching the "catch-up" stage with price/rally. It's not precise enough to call a top, but it identifies a condition where tops often develop.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

2 years

When the market undercuts a significant low, and doesn't follow through to the downside, it can be a sign of exhaustion. The oversold condition this morning was close to historic and the inability of bears to trigger stops below obvious support this afternoon is supportive.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

6 months

Productivity growth is notoriously difficult to forecast. If we are in a productivity boom, something we’ll keep seeing: continued upward revisions to consensus growth estimates. In the 90s, GDP expected to always be around 2% to start the year but ended up be 4!

Matthew B

@boes_

6 months

Forecasters marked up the outlook for US GDP growth in 2024 to 2.1% in the latest monthly Bloomberg survey, from 1.5% last month, on strength in consumer and government spending

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

6 months

Layoff announcements rose in January but were down against last year. But, what has changed is why firms are shedding workers. In Jan 23, it was mostly about "economic conditions," but today, firms are "restructuring." This suggests more frictional than cyclical unemployment.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

3 years

With 10yr yields breakingout today, it's a good time to understand/review historical industry group sensitivities to yields. In a word: #cyclicality

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

1 month

Global manufacturing PMIs point to a continued rebound in factory activity through June. By our count, 60% of manufacturing PMIs that we track are in expansion territory. This is the highest level since mid-2022.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

2 years

A recession is NOT two quarters of back to back negative real GDP. A recession is a sustained slump in employment, production, income and sales. In April, we saw the solid growth in jobs, production and retail sales.

Joe Weisenthal

@TheStalwart

2 years

"The recession talk is laughably divorced from the economic data." -- Neil Dutta of @RenMacLLC

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

8 months

Core inflation came in line with expectations despite a 1.6% increase in used car and truck prices. That’s unlikely to persist in the coming months. Room for downside on core inflation ahead.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

5 months

Nice of Chair Powell to give away the core PCE estimate for February "We have it well below 30bps" on core PCE (data due on March 29). At any rate, recall that inputs from CPI and PPI get you nearly all the way there.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

7 months

Consumers are not "out of gas." With price inflation slowing, real incomes are rising. Indeed, since May, real incomes net of transfers, a key recession determinant, are up roughly 3.0% at an annual rate. This supports ongoing personal consumption.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

7 months

The bond market is selling off, but there really is less here than meets the eye. The US economy is growing at roughly 2.0 to 2.5%; however, aggregate hours worked over the last three months are flat. This implies a rise in labor productivity and a drop in unit labor costs.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

6 months

Core inflation is running under two percent. Over the last three months, core PCE has advanced just 1.52% at an annual rate. Over the last six months, core PCE has climbed just 1.86%.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

8 months

Typically gold $GLD starts a bull run as real interest rates peak. Rallies tend to stall when real rates reach low levels and begin to climb. It's a simple game: throw the ball, hit the ball, catch the ball. -Bull Durham

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

2 years

Capitulation can be defined by unusually high volume and outsized downside price volatility. We measure the later on a stock by stock basis and aggregate as a market indication of capitulation. Yesterday, only 1.60% of $SPX names qualified as negative volatility alerts. 😴😴

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

5 months

$AAPL with a quiet dark-cross today. Still holding above support, but the trend is notably deteriorating.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

8 months

Powell notes that it is premature to talk about a rate cut, but doing a rug pull would not be new for him.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

3 months

A primary reason for the beat in April PPI was a sharp increase in portfolio management and investment advice, up roughly 4%. This will add 0.06ppts to core PCE inflation in April. Of course, stocks eased a bit last month and that should flow in later this quarter.

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150

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

3 years

Bears have come out of hibernation.

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150

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

2 years

Energy will likely peak prior to inflation, so the weakness is notable/important. The good news, tactically, is the sectors' most extreme oversold condition since COVID should give $XLE another run, but we're watching for signs of leadership shifting.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

1 year

Our most tactical oversold indicator triggering here on $SPX. When trends are positive, oversold conditions tend to hold. When bear markets present, oversold persists, so this will be a good litmus test. Passed in December, let's see about Feb.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

26 days

Rents are set with longer run inflation expectations in mind, which is why they are considered "sticky." Rents slowed sharply in June. The doves have what they need. It is time to recalibrate policy. GET ON WITH IT.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

24 days

Game over…. Prepare for record donations to DJT

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

2 months

In my 35-years in this biz, I do not recall ever seeing someone defend a price level like someone is defending $INTC at $30. Incredible.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

2 years

Consumers' spending is on fire. According to weekly payment card transactions data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, spending is up 18% for the week ending January 25 against a pre-pandemic baseline period. On this series, the typical level corresponds to a value of zero.

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134

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

3 years

Past returns are a better predictor of sentiment than sentiment is a predictor of forward returns. That said, when there are fewer bulls than expected given past returns, it suggests "over-bearishness", and that tends to be bullish. We're in that zone today.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

7 months

While we think the Fed cuts rates in 2024, the #CPI analogs to the 1970s is misleading. The Fed was aggressively cutting at the peak and during the disinflation period then, today they continued to raise as inflation contracted. #inflation $GLD

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

1 year

Below are the distributions of Sharpe Ratios in a golden-cross vs buy-and-hold environment. It's pretty clear (to us at least) that this simple technique can add value to anyone who cares about risk-adjusted returns. It turned positive last week on $SPX

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

11 months

Ammo for the doves. While the unemployment rate remains low, consumers are telling a different tale. The Conference Board's Labor Differential sank to 26.2, a fresh low for this cycle. This measures the spread between those saying jobs are "plentiful" versus "hard to get."

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

1 year

Tongue and cheek, but didn't this move in the 2yr just make $SIVB solvent again?

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135

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

3 years

It’s a familiar, albeit less lethal, oversight in research. As an aviator, it’s painfully obvious to see. As a researcher immersed in data, its more prevalent than it should be.

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135

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

2 years

From today's Daily Note $SPX:

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

10 months

Honored to be watching our favorite. Excuse me, “favourite” Canadian get married today in the 416!

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132

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

4 months

The ISM production index rose to 54.6, the highest level since June 2022 while the employment sub-index stood at just 47.4. Taken at face value, this implies a pretty solid pick-up in manufacturing sector productivity growth in the coming quarters.

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133

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

4 years

Here's the "deGraaf Thrust indicator".....from the patriarch: Note Monday was only the 10th time in history this has spiked above 70%, the last one was June '20 and Jan '19 @WillieDelwiche @NDR_Research @WalterDeemer @michaelsantoli

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

2 years

Powell keeps saying the Fed's best estimates "as of today." That is because these estimates might not be their best by the next meeting because we will have more data to chew on. Powell is green lighting a 25bp move in February.

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25

128

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

8 months

Yields have contracted almost 100bps since the +5% overbought peak in October. They are now oversold (green arrow) and still in a well-defined uptrend. $SPX "easy money" for this tactical move is likely behind us.

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28

128

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

1 year

No recession. (1) Core services ex housing rental inflation is moderating, taking pressure off the Fed to hike. A pause over the summer looks likely. (2) Housing is turning up; new home sales at one-year high. (3) Inventories will need to be replenished, supporting factories.

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127

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

2 years

Consumer sentiment doesn't work well as a macro-factor for forward $SPX returns, but it is one of the better factors for gold $GLD forward returns. Low confidence is historically associated with higher gold prices.

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35

128

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

6 months

The story in the housing market is that the multi-family industry is shutting down while single-family continues to perk-up. Multi-family building permits have plunged to fresh lows while single-family permits have advanced for 12 consecutive months.

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28

128

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

2 years

Sentiment continues to be the best feature of this market (for bulls). Friday's equity put/call ratio $SPX got thru our threshold level, matched only by the levels seen at the June lows. Momentum and trends are not supportive, but positioning appears to be.

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27

125

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

8 months

Historically, December is better for $SPX returns than November (on average). There's also no evidence that a strong November pulls returns from December, it can happen, but autocorrelation is more likely.

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32

125

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

2 months

Initial jobless claims are rising and producer prices have slipped. The growth and inflation tradeoffs for the Fed are shifting. It’s getting close to time to recalibrate policy.

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126

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

4 months

One sign of loosening in the labor market. The percent of individuals with zero wage change in the last year has increased to 12.6%, the highest since December 2021. Series tends to follow the unemployment rate by a few months. Inflationary impulse from the job market is fading.

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126

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

8 months

Following up on Nov 16th post about overbought being bullish. Yesterday we had the 4th highest % of overbought readings in the $SPX since 1990 (JD's first year in the biz). Guess what? this overbought is historically bullish.

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26

124

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

8 months

Today’s PPI data indicate that core PCE inflation will run south of core CPI over the month. The Fed will need to revise its core PCE estimates down, hastening a cut in the federal funds rate.

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20

123

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

1 year

While the statement was unch'd, Powell's press conference feels dovish. He continues to put much currency behind the long & variable lags story and sees the overall stance of policy as restrictive. That he sees policy as restrictive even as growth expectations climb is dovish.

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125

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

1 year

Sorry, but economic growth is running well above potential, which is inconsistent with the idea that policy is restrictive. Over the three months ending in June, real GDP is up 5.3% at an annual rate. Over the last 12 months, real GDP is up 3.1%. Neutral is higher than believed.

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125

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

6 months

Exit liquidity is when buyers are so amped up about future prospects (buying frenzy) that large holders are able to sell with minimal impact on price. The combination of price momentum and option positioning in $NVDA is flagging "buyer's frenzy"

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22

123

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

1 year

Technically, yields are in an uptrend, and upon breakout count as high as ~5.40%. The good news is that real yields are at levels that have consistently provided yield relief and a peak in nominal rates. Who prevails, history or trend? We tend to use both sequentially. $TLT

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

2 years

I would not expect this in June, but a Fed pivot is coming. First, initial jobless claims are rising. We are not alarmed yet, but at a minimum, this rise indicates that the unemployment rate is flattening out. The risk of a labor market becoming more unsustainably hot is falling.

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119

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

1 year

Large Speculators starting to give up on $BTC

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20

116

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

2 years

"Financial conditions have tightened considerably over the past year." Really? The fact that Powell thinks that financial conditions have tightened, when they have eased across a range of metrics in recent months, is dovish.

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24

121

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

2 years

This is a tough one professionally. But, if there is a time to hit the alarm bell on the economy, I think this is the time. More so than at any other point in my career.

Bloomberg Asia

@BloombergAsia

2 years

“I’ve turned cautious on the economic outlook (a place I don’t normally find myself),” Neil Dutta, an economy-watcher widely followed in financial markets, wrote in a note

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119

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

10 months

While bond yields are up following this morning’s CPI data, the Fed looks on track to call off its final hike for 2023. Core CPI ex shelter rose just 0.1 percent over the month, rising just under 2% against last year. That’ll be good enough for the Fed.

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27

121

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

3 years

Used car prices surged 10% in April. This component equals 2.76% of CPI. Thus, the rise in used car & truck prices added about 0.3ppt to headline CPI.

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35

118

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

4 months

Cooling off of services inflation? In March, the ISM services prices index eased to 53.4, the lowest since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Supply chains have shown improvement too with supplier delivery times improving to their best since April 2009.

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37

120

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

3 months

Powell gave the Indeed Wage data a shout-out. Mentioned the JOLTs data from this morning. Did not hear anything about ECI yet. Interesting. There is a reason why stocks and bonds are rallying at the moment.

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17

118

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

5 months

52wk highs on SPX hit 23% yesterday, the highest in 3-years. Rarely do we see internal highs peak with prices, they usually lead $SPX.

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22

115

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

7 months

Economic conditions improving? In the Beige Book, words matter. By our tally, some iteration of the words "weak" or "slow" showed up 83 times. This is the lowest count since April 2022.

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27

115

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

1 year

How effective is the yield curve at predicting market direction? Red line bottom pane shows 20yr rolling t-stat vs $SPX forward return. When i got in the biz in 1990 it was critical, it’s been losing efficacy ever since.

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27

117

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

1 year

What is going on in Massachusetts? Over the 8 weeks ending in April 29, initial jobless claims have increased 34,000. Claims in Massachusetts have surged 24,846 over this period. That's a pretty sizeable chunk of the increase.

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117

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

1 year

For all the talk about excess saving being depleted it’s worth nothing that since last June, the saving rate has climbed about 2ppt and during that time real consumption is also up about 2%. Income driven consumption.

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117

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

6 months

Lots of folks were off the job due to bad weather. In January, 588,000 folks were "employed but not at work" due to bad weather. This was the highest tally for January since 2011. The closest in recent memory was in 2018 when we saw this number hit 544,000.

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115

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

5 months

The unemployment rate warrants close attention. Folks having more trouble finding positions. According to latest NY Fed SCE, probability of finding a job over the next three months if losing one today slipped to 52.53% in February, the lowest since April 2021.

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117

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

8 months

Our contrarian call for 2024 is in health care. Our SERM model shows excessively negative risk adjusted returns (bad = good) and our ETF flows (below) show excessive outflows on a YoY basis in $XLV.

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114

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

2 months

Either growth is steady and inflation slows or growth slows and inflation slows. Those are the most plausible outcomes, in our view. This may come as the Fed erases cuts in 2024. Buckle up.

Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

2 months

“There is a potential accident brewing,” writes Neil Dutta at ⁦ @RenMacLLC , who’s seeing a Fed accident ahead. The economy is weakening at a faster clip than inflation, meaning the Fed won’t feel justified to cut rates as much. “Bonds have room to run.”

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

3 years

The danger when 52-week highs are prolific....is not being BULLISH! Red distribution shows 3M returns after 52-week highs > 20% for SPX vs all other 3M returns back to 1927. Returns +48% STD -33%. $SPY $SPX #knowthedata #degraaf

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20

113

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

7 months

The news this morning seems inflation friendly. First, the ISM prices paid index remains under 50 for the 8th consecutive month. Second, the private quits rate has gone a bit beyond normalization, falling to 2.4%. Labor compensation pressures will slow. Fed has ammo to talk cuts

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110

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

3 months

The soft-landing bulls will and should run with this report. Average hourly earnings over the last three months is 2.8%. Given the growth in labor productivity, the wage inflation figures are consistent with the Fed's longer-run inflation objectives.

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113

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

3 years

We know anecdotes aren’t a substitute for hard data. But, here is a thread of commentary from recent company earnings calls on the issue of supplemental unemployment insurance and labor supply constraints. We will add more as the earnings season rolls on.

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112

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

2 years

R1000 rolling correlation (constituents) has hit 59% which is the top decile historically. It's the best zone for historical forward returns, implying that stocks are trading as an asset class, with little distinction between names. In English? Equals baby tossed w/ bathwater.

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24

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

8 months

CNBC at 11 a.m. where we'll discuss the significance of deGraaf's thrust signal that suggested escape velocity on $SPX. Only 6 other times since 1957 have we had a number better than last weeks, w/ none producing negative 6m forward returns.

3

22

110

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

1 year

GDP beat in Q2 with consumption and inventories up only a little bit and residential investment negative. Sorry, but these probably strengthen in Q3/Q4 which means growth expectations will need to keep climbing.

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RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

1 year

Best chart we saw for the bulls was the spike in Put/Call ratios yesterday. We prefer more persistence than 1-day for $SPX, but every journey starts with a first step.

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22

110