Tracking possible future polls of the 2024 presidential election (and downballot races) based off tweets. Political commentary every now and then. Non-partisan.
🛰️ Incoming polls over the next few days
Confirmed: Siena (MI/WI/OH/NE2)
Unconfirmed: AtlasIntel (PA)
Unconfirmed: Quinnipiac (GA/NC)
Unconfirmed: Angus Reid (National)
This is what polling looked like in 2012 in case anyone followed elections back then.
Obama and Romney were deadlocked in the national polls while Obama had slight edges in the swing states.
Ultimately the state polls proved more pivotal and Obama went on to win a 2nd term.
On its face, Harris +2 is a “good” result for Trump post-debate where most polls have Harris up 4-5 pts
However… Fox’s previous national poll had Trump +1 in August so this is a 3 point shift in favor of Harris.
President (California)
Harris (D) 59%
Trump (R) 34%
Kennedy (I) 3%
Stein (G) 2%
De la Cruz (P) 2%
9/11-9/16 by Capitol Weekly
1054 LV
Woof! Did I do a good job?
If these numbers are accurate Trump would win 272 electoral votes.
Caveat is Emerson has been Trump’s more favorable pollster during the election cycle.
Throw them in the averages!
Exclusive poll for
@AZFreeNews
, conducted by Data Orbital: Trump has a narrow lead in Arizona, with the economy and border at the forefront.
Donald Trump: 46.2%
Kamala Harris: 46.0%
View the full AZ Free News article here:
Toplines and Crosstabs found
Legar released a poll today, apparently post-debate that shows Harris up 3 (50-47) against Trump.
Major polling accounts haven’t picked it up yet.
Expect a potential Morning Consult poll too. They did a poll a day after the Trump-Biden debate.
TIL: We have a special election for NJ-10 district today! (Donald Payne’s seat)
Biden won the district by 63 points, Don Payne won by a margin of 58.
Let’s see if Democrats over-perform!
TIL: We have a special election for NJ-10 district today! (Donald Payne’s seat)
Biden won the district by 63 points, Don Payne won by a margin of 58.
Let’s see if Democrats over-perform!
Rust Belt showdown!
Stay up late or get up early to see our brand-new results from PA, MI, and WI showing how Harris and Trump stack up.
Out after midnight eastern:
Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson is reportedly running for Governor in North Carolina. He is without a doubt one of, if not *the* strongest, potential candidates for Republicans in the Tar Heel State.
According to
@EricLDaugh
, an F&M poll of Pennsylvania is coming out today.
While they were off in 2016 and 2020, it’s worth noting their final poll of the Senate race between Fetterman and Oz was Fetterman +4 among LVs
🚨 Apparently F&M Pennsylvania poll is coming out tomorrow.
Here’s their history in PA:
🔵 Sep 2016: Clinton+12 [12.7 point error]
🔵 Sep/Oct 2020: Biden+6 [5 point error]
“I like watching tranny on girl porn! That’s f*cking hot! It takes the man out while leaving the man in!” Robinson wrote. “And yeah I’m a ‘perv’ too!”
This is actually contained in the article 😳
An IPSOS/ABC poll could come out on Sunday, which is usually their timeframe for releasing results.
They’ve been favorable to Harris in pervious surveys so you could expect a great result for her factoring in a 1-2 pt boost post-debate.
.
@FandMPoll
’s last poll of the presidential race was Harris +3 among RVs (7/21-8/11)
Hoping we get a shorter field date and an LV sample for a more accurate result.
According to
@EricLDaugh
, an F&M poll of Pennsylvania is coming out today.
While they were off in 2016 and 2020, it’s worth noting their final poll of the Senate race between Fetterman and Oz was Fetterman +4 among LVs
@RedistrictGirl
Yeah I definitely Big Village is underestimating Trump’s % of vote like most polls did in 2020.
Tells me we’re likely heading for a repeat 4 years ago.
Don’t know if this is accurate but the result is entirely believable.
Their last poll was “Harris +5”.
I put that result in parentheses because Monmouth stopped polling H2H after 2020.
NRSC internal polls show Hogan tied with Alsobrooks, Sherrod Brown +2, Gallego +4, Sheehy +4 and Trump + 1 in AZ over Harris
The article is from Tuesday but there hasn’t been any reporting on these results.