If Ackman’s research into plagiarism is as deep, layered, and correct as his research into Herbalife, JCP, Target, or Valeant, higher education has nothing to worry about
I remember being a junior guy and working on a deck, a model, a summary email for days and sending it out and not getting any response and it being devastating. If you've got junior people working for you remember the Twain quote - "I can live for two months on a good compliment"
You know how owns a lot of real estate? Blackstone. You know who's really good at financial modeling? Blackstone. You know who I've heard use the terms IRR and leverages to the hilt? Blackstone.
@mrkorangy
This, unfortunately all too common, talking point is a racist dog whistle. Dallas has markedly higher crime rates than Chicago, as an example.
A billionaire I used to work for always said "it's about capital flows. The in-place P&L doesn't matter .Figure out where capital is flowing and put yourself in the middle of it."
Happy New Year
One of our partners asked me about a sensitivity table that I built in a model for a deal we are looking it. Emails me, "what is CAGR?".
That firm owns 10k apartments and absolutely crushes it. Modeling is overrated.
Shot: Saw a Tony Robbins Instagram ad about how he helped the Fruit of the Loom CEO decide not to sell the company for $1.9b bc he knew the CEO could grow it even bigger.
Chaser: In 1999...Fruit of the Loom lost $576 million, filed for bankruptcy protection, and fired the CEO.
To be a good acquisitions guy you have to be realistic enough to know you'll only do 1 out of every however many deals you see, but brain-damaged enough to get incredibly excited every time you see a deal and sprint into a brick wall to chase it
“Translation: I’m a serial overpayer,” Langone said. “How did I get so rich? Paying people lots of money when they worked their asses off. And I just had a piece of it. That’s all I want.”
PAY YOUR PEOPLE
If you want to build an eight figure net worth you’re much better off going to a small town and being the number one home builder or landscaping company than working at BX in NYC
If Bloomberg did business 30 for 30-style documentaries what is your short list of docs? A few for me:
- Bass Bros. / Rainwater
- Reginald Lewis story
- Battle for Disney in early 80s
- Battle for the GM Building
- Blackstone’s 2007 (Hilton and EOP)
Played golf with my cousin who works at a L/S shop
Me: "what're you covering?"
Him: "Generalist, but spend 80% of my time on shorts, which is rough. Hey Jason (caddie), do you own any Gamestop?"
Caddie: "Oh yeah, big time.
Him: "Exactly."
If you were curious about how much ground May's Demon Two Seamer and his Curveball cover...
Here's an overlay of May's 99mph Two Seamer to Machado and May's 87mph Curveball to Tatis.
Talking about investment firms, big law, consulting, etc the other day and a friend made the point that they’re designed to make you believe there’s no way to succeed outside that framework. If you take a step back and you see there are unlimited paths to success and happiness
Real estate is so passive that one of my tenants fell into a second floor garbage chute, got picked up with the trash, and was taken by a garbage truck to the dump.
I swear to god this happened last week.
Normal lawyer conflicted out. Told new lawyer "don't want to over-lawyer this" and they said "you've come to the right place". Not sure how to react to that, to be honest.
Spoke with buddy at Wells MF Capital. Takeaways:
-No cash out refi's for a long, long time
-CMBS dead for at least six months, maybe rest of our lives
-6 months up front escrow for interest for < 65% LTV, 12 mos for < 65%.
-Class C, C- stuff absolutely getting smoked
I'm only about 1/4 through it but "How to Build a Car", Adrian Newey's (CTO at Red Bull Racing) biography, is the best thing I've read in a long, long time.
A hidden danger about concentration is how much it can impact your mood. If you’ve only got one deal or one stock, you live and die with every little thing that happens. When you’re diversified you also diversify your emotions, can’t underrate that
Thinking more and more that the most important thing in analyzing any investment is finding the one or two things that matter. Less modeling and more thinking
Sort of amazing in real estate how often you see a big exit and ping someone involved and go "awesome job, amazing execution" and they respond "what a total f'ing s***show, this was a disaster from Day 1 I have no idea how we made any money"
Remember asking a pal who’s close friend worked for Druck how Druck thought about taxes.
“Does not give two shits because his mindset is he’s going to make so much it doesn’t matter.”
The thing about real estate is that there are a ton of people dumber than you who've made fortunes, but a ton of people smarter than you who got their face ripped off.
In Cable Cowboy there's a point where Malone looks at Brian Roberts, Murdoch, etc. being billionaires while he was worth a paltry $50m and goes "I'm smarter than all of them so I need to get mine" and does a bunch of specialized transactions designed to enrich himself
In a real estate career, income & net worth are lagging indicators of skill, network & reputation.
The trick is to focus on doing great deals & taking care of your clients & partners.
Do that, and you will get rich... just takes a while.
What if, and hear me out, instead of doing the most complicated thing you’ve ever seen in your life, John Malone just invested in companies that were good?
Always hilarious to read 80s business books and hear about "the Blackstone Group, a small M&A advisory led by Pete Peterson with his junior partner, Steve Schwarzman".
Me: “hey we’re pretty far off so not going to submit”
Broker: “could you actually submit anyway? We need to show traction and we have none”
And that’s how I am hoping I bought a 12 year old multi asset for under $100k a door
If you don't let my best friend, who is the richest man in the world, get exactly what he wants with no formal process and competition, the game is rigged!
Anecdotal data point on NYC apartments. Mrs. Shorts and I went looking for a new place yesterday and got 4 months free plus a rent credit. I would like to think it is because I am a shrewd negotiator, but alas more likely a function of the current marketplace.
Once in the minors I played golf with a guy who’s now been in the majors for a decade plus. He probably shot 105, and at the end of the round he goes “nice 83 today!” I honestly believe that level of confidence / delusion is helpful in almost every walk of life
Long read of the weekend about the man, the myth, Trammell Crow himself. If you’re TC you also don’t need to read the docs.
“Only way to lose in real estate is to sell because you’ve got the stork on your side”
Heard that Whole Foods renegotiated a big lease on a mixed-use building in NYC with 10+ years on the lease and the developer had no choice but to bite the bullet.
How does this not happen on the next lifecycle of industrial leases with Amazon?
Second level thinking can sometimes be simply not overthinking. Met real estate guy who owns half a million shares of Apple at a $10 basis because “the iPhone in 2006 was the greatest thing I’ve ever seen”.
A cap rate isn’t a guaranteed yield, it’s a snapshot, a moment in time. Your risk is the stability of the cash flow that creates the yield. You as an owner run a business when you buy a property, and the cap rate can go to zero. Saying you’re buying a 6 cap is meaningless
The mood in NYC right now is like in college when you roll someone in the Saturday day game to go up 2-0 in the weekend series and you’re blaring Levels in the locker room knowing you’re about to go hard at the bar because you know you’re going to wreck them Sunday anyway
Few quick NYD scribbles about what I see right now.
- Most assets in "distress" you don't wanna own
- Good assets with capital stacks in distress are great r/r, but basically impossible to do programmatically or at scale. Lot of the dry powder is not going to get spent.
Kind of tells you where the world is when a guy who made his fortune in printing is selling an NBA team to a guy who founded two businesses that lit money on fire, and a guy who cheated on JLO with the fifth female lead of the fourth best Bravo reality show
One of my favorite quotes ever was from someone who's kid grew up playing youth soccer with Pulisic.
"We all knew he was special, but we figured special meant like, scholarship to Clemson"
Christian Pulisic. Just 21 minutes into his debut for AC Milan, thrashed this stunning poem of a strike. When the 24 Year-Old from Hershey, PA has certainty, stability, and knows he is loved, he is capable of footballing wonder 🇺🇸🇮🇹
This may be a hot take, but the very aggressive PE firms like Sycamore have a Buffett (two t's!)-like strategy. They race to get a 1x return (via aggressive levered divi recap) then have a free call option on the future of the business. Mechanism is different but idea is the same
If I ever owned a bar, it would be a total dive, it would have table shuffleboard, it would only be open 11am-3pm on weekdays, it would be called "Brothers" and the only music would be that album by the Black Keys. It would not be a successful bar.
Seeing a lot of tweets about people who bought homes in last 12-18 mos with low rates not budging and staying in place.
Well, tech's laying off. Law is laying off. Banking probably coming next. They still not budging?
AUCTION April 16-18 Starting Bid $1,500,000
100 N CHARLES ST, BALTIMORE, MD
345,663 SF 23 Floors
Year Built/Renovated: 1963/1994
Occupancy: 32.8%
#commercialrealestate
Every LinkedIn post:
"After 10 years of working at (insert traditional bank / lender), I'm proud to announce that I am moving to (insert FinTech)! I am so thrilled to be changing the world of finance by doing the exact same thing, but with more 'tech-y' marketing collateral!"