I help *good* FS Firms become go-to places for trustworthy and fascinating ideas about money.
Book: 'Who misleads you about money?
π¬π§πππβ·
For anyone who's thinking about a change in direction.
I've been there - I was John in the example in this post - and I made the big leap 14 years ago.
This is not easy - despite what the misleading, self-serving, self-help gurus and business consultants will tell you.
So,
Updated picture with latest data from Nationwide.
Please don't shoot the messenger - this is just data.
First time buyer prices in London are falling, but could *potentially* fall a lot further (30% to 50%) in 'earnings adjusted' terms before reaching a more 'normal' price
If you hold interest rates close to zero for the best part of 13 years, guess what happens?
Yes, asset prices go through the roof.
On investments people chase yield or capital gains in places other than bank deposits.
And those who want to buy homes grab at the super low cost
It gives me no pleasure to share this, because millions struggling to pay their mortgages will now feel the double whammy of price falls.
It is however the inevitable consequence of a more than decade of 'near zero' per cent interest rates.
UK estate agents gloomiest since
Move along now - nothing of *interest* (LOL) to see here... unless seeing bond yields (the risk-free rate against which all other assets are priced) so 'out of whack with reality' concerns you?
@John_Stepek
@hussmanjp
Sadly, the
@BBCNews
(Today programme today) persist in misleading the public about the Pensions Tax issue that's killing the NHS.
Today they said it's about Drs with Β£1million + pension pots.
WRONG.
For pitys sake BBC, this is important.
Get your facts straight
@paullewismoney
So, while the
@BBC
shamefully employ self-flaggelating young liberals to lecture us all on how to think, the serious and intelligent debate goes on elsewhere, as here with
@coldxman
and
@freddiesayers
of
@unherd
#wakeywokey
BBC, before it's too late.
Hear hear for
@Miss_Snuffy
And the reasonable majority need to speak up and support people like Katherine too.
Keeping quiet is NO good.
The world did that before and we cannot afford to repeat that mistake.
You know who is having a good culture war? The excellent
@Miss_Snuffy
. She is one of the few people being consistently anti-woke and anti-racist. Youβd think that would be the default position in a liberal society, but itβs shockingly rare.
For a hundred years or more, the wealth of US Citizens roughly tracked their GDP.
Then Greenspan (and followers) tried to change the game, but only managed to inflate a series of asset price bubbles.
Now we must pay the piper.
Great piece from
@EpsilonTheory
as always.
Over the past 25 years, our leaders have intentionally constructed an Apocalypse Now world of proclamation and fiat, where our wealth has grown much faster than our economy.
The bill is due for their hubris, and inflation is here to collect it.
Supremely good analysis of the big picture on US Stock and Bond Markets from
@hussmanjp
My favourite picture is below - showing the effect of all that QE from Central Banks.
No one knows what the future holds, but if history is *any* guide, then from this point in valuations
@DarrenMole
Please do not apologise for challenging this horrendous activity. It is the fact that we're sorry for challenging it - that it continues unchallenged.
@MerrynSW
In 2015, Ipsos Mori asked What pension fund was required to provide a retirement income (inc state pension) of Β£25,000 a year ?
50% + of people said less than Β£150,000 was enough whilst 12% thought Β£15,000 would do the job. It's not longevity, itβs NUMBERS that people donβt get!
Jeremy Grantham is perhaps the most open, honest, and wise Investment Managers in the world.
And he's so generous with his insights. He just loves to talk and share ideas.
If you want to know about Zombie companies
@alexgroundwater
listen to this.
Not sure what's driving it (German stores full?) but UK gas prices fell 11% today alone, and have nearly halved in 10 days.
Let's hope this continues...
Very well put.
Whipped up by MSM hysteria, people have become so frightened of being thought racist, they've lost the ability to think or act rationally.
At the risk of occasionally upsetting someone (which most British people prefer not to do), you have to assume callers are scammers until they can *prove* they are legit.
Ask them to explain why you should should trust them. And ask them for their website address, so you can
@Miss_Snuffy
I'd say you're sugar coating the effects of the
#BLM
@Miss_Snuffy
.
Not everyone is kneeling or hiding.
A lot of normally reasonable people are now openly angry at being wrongly accused of wrongthinking!
This movement could potentially set us back decades.
@DontDivideUsNow
So, Laura Kuensberg, Beth Rigby and another MSM Journo singularly fail once more to ask any useful questions.
Focusing only on trying to get the PM and Scientists to admit they're complete idiots with massive "Regrets"
This useless anti-Gov't journalism just goes on and on.
.
@hussmanjp
's model acknowledges that in 1982 prospective US Stockmarket returns were c. 20% p.a.
Trouble is, it now forecasts NEGATIVE returns.
You might believe markets are always priced for growth, but think hard about being heavily invested now.
Point well made by
@WinterfellT
Making the remainer case is deemed OK
Making a Brexit case is unacceptable.
Why do so many parts of the media think biased brainwashing is OK?
@afneil
one of the few prepared to press both sides for balanced truths.
Without question, this book, by
@RichardDawkins
is one of the most valuable books ever written.
Ideal for inspiring children of *any* age. Get the hardback, beautifully illustrated by
@DaveMcKean
Houston
@hmtreasury
we have a problem.
TAX can't work like this. These bumps are bad enough but add in the Pensions AA charges, and they're really upsetting some of our most valuable professionals (e.g. Doctors
@goldstone_tony
& perhaps you treasury guys too?)
Let's fix this
Would you work more β¦ for less pay?
I'm just going to leave this here
for politicians and highly paid BBC execs to ponder
UNTIL the problem is fixed.
Have a nice day all.
And spare a thought for the completely unnecessary stress on our Doctors this week
THE reason this pensions tax issue
(breaking the NHS)
has not yet been fixed...
is because no one believed
that ANY government would tax Doctors
at over 100% on their overtime earnings.
@mrjamesob
didn't believe it - until today!
@hall_nhs
According to HMRC, this year
c.30% of all income tax will be paid by the top 1% of taxpayers.
The top 5% will pay 50% of the total.
Only fools would create a tax system that encourages the "professionals" in this category to leave the UK.
@DawgShock
@elerianm
Bond prices are falling at the same time as shares.
It's unusual but not unheard of.
Perhaps investors figure cash will be pumped without limit into a shrinking economy and inflation will be allowed to rip... Who knows?
Would you work more β¦ for less pay?
I'm just going to leave this here
for politicians and highly paid BBC execs to ponder
UNTIL the problem is fixed.
Have a nice day all.
And spare a thought for the completely unnecessary stress on our Doctors this week
Spot on and in line with other great Scientists like Carol Dweck and
@SusanDavid_PhD
We've been misled for 30 years into believing children achieve more when we focus on their self esteem.
Truth is, they need to *achieve* to feel better.
Classic Causation Correlation Confusion.
Stop telling kids they're depressed. Keep doing it, and guess how they'll feel?
If 'experts' or 'advocates' tell you they are, it's probably because they want your money. The kids are all right.
Various experts are now drawing parallels between the 1987 bond yield run up and the current one.
Of course, the past never repeats exactly, but it's worth noting what happened next in 1987.
The bond yield correction was caused by a flight from stocks, which triggered a 20%
If you're at all unsure about how much investment risk is right for you, learn about the four simple factors, you need to consider.
You only need to *invest* 10 or 20 minutes to learn these four factors - and I've made them easy to remember, to help you get the 'NACK' of this!
90% of ANGER is unnecessary, unjustified and driven from self-absorption.
(The Dalai Lama, on stage, in London, Sept 2015, I was there!)
The Dalai Lama loves science and that quote, he said, comes from Aaron Beck the Psychiatrist.
See here
@TitaniaMcGrath
Damn...
if only I'd known that trick.
I've wasted the past (too many) decades - trying to debate issues.
From now on its personal insults all the way.
With you all the way missus
.
@MerrynSW
talking a lot of sense here.
Lower pension contributions in exchange for a less 'Rolls Royce' rate of pension accrual (at least as an option - as is offered to others who join public sector jobs, now) would make sense, in my view.
As would some kind of deal on
βA junior doctor now has very significantly less disposable income, in real terms, than they might have had 10 or 15 years agoβ
Finance journalist Merryn Somerset Webb analyses the economic landscape and possible solutions to the pay dispute
#bbcqt
So, I just got a message from
@BorisJohnson
's campaign office to ask if I could simplify things a bit on this NHS pension tax debacle.
My best shot is here for you Boris - and
@BBCNews
More in the thread
If you lobby senior politicians or the BBC
to talk sensibly about this,
keep your explanations simple.
We know this is far more complex than
there being TWO big tax limits on pensions.
But they still don't know
which of those two limits is the problem!
@Peston
Down 0.21% now.
Italy's down 0.13%
And Swiss bond yields down too.
Perhaps more than one factor drives bond yields?
Perhaps the world is simply waking up to the risks of a serious global recession?
@AlihussainST
Your comments demonstrate a total misunderstanding of this market Ali.
And that's dangerously misleading to the public.
Time for you and
@thetimes
to apologise for your error, and write a proper article on the value of protection policies.
Ask
@Kathryn_Cura
for help with it.
On the "Tyranny of Positivity."
Just an extract from today's thought/newsletter from
@SusanDavid_PhD
.
Get onto Susan's list for these regular Insights.
I wonder what
@BowenBBC
and
@BBCNews
will make of this.
Will we be told that, like Kalashnikov rifles, there are tunnels "everywhere" in the Middle East - so, this proves nothing!
Or perhaps that the Israelis brought some tunnel making equipment with them and installed this
OPERATIONAL UPDATE: IDF and ISA forces revealed a significant 55-meter-long terrorist tunnel, 10 meters underneath the Shifa Hospital complex during an intelligence-based operation.
The tunnel entrance contains various defense mechanisms, such as a blast-proof door and a firing
@martinbamford
Please try to get these warnings out earlier Martin.
Sent my (and my partner's) cards off to them with PINs last week.
Really didn't want to risk a fire in the wallet... or handbag (perfume in there)
@afneil
It was fine Andrew.
You gave him plenty of time to answer clear questions.
He simply chose to avoid them.
Well played.
Keep it up.
Don't be dissuaded by all these whining groupies, not that you would.
So, decided to step away from the Cummings noise (and ALL NEWS) to focus back onto my financial education work.
My final observation is this.
UK Public opinion is now driven by a few, anti government journalists.
And *that* cannot be right eh,
@afneil
?
Here's mine, but it's just the setup that made your chart inevitable. A crash is nothing but risk-aversion meeting a market that's priced for zero risk.
Please move along.
There is absolutely nothing to see here from
@hussmanjp
It's just historic data covering the past 100 years.
And no one is suggesting this pattern will repeat anytime soon...
@RichardJMurphy
That's an interesting comment which seems to imply we can all stop paying tax, and pay for everything out of the BOE Magic Money Tree.
Is that right (in theory) and if so, what might be the long term consequences?
In short, what is your point in plain English?
@timfprice
@GeorgeCooper__
@SteveBakerHW
Immediately disqualified.
To have got a degree in Engineering he must know how to add up, solve complex problems and have a respect for logic.
Clearly all impediments to Political success.
They need an over confident blagger. That's what people vote for.
@ExplorerDale
Well, as with a crash in the price of any asset class, (bonds and stocks for example) it's not good news for those who bought at the top.
Also, unlike regularly investing into stock markets during a crash- there is no pound/dollar cost averaging advantage with the big lump sum
Do NOT miss this one.
And help the
@TransparencyTF
Task Force (TTF) to put pressure on Gov't for change.
Who are the TTF?
Good peeps who promote ongoing reform of the Financial Sector to better serve us all.
@hall_nhs
Well...
It's *very* dissapointing to see
@thetimes
describing what would be a reduction in the frequency of 100%+ tax Bills as a 'windfall'.
They clearly still don't understand the basics.
Ho hum.
An extremely proud day as my youngest (of 3) graduates with a Masters (First) in Automotive Materials Science (M.Eng) from Loughborough.
Any contacts at recruiting engineering firms, *very* gratefully received. It's a helluva year to graduate but he's a smart, hard-working guy.
So,
@hussmanjp
,
@OddStats
@John_Stepek
Is this Ten-year-old Triple Top and Trumped 'Toro' (had to be done) going to grow another horn... or is 3 all it's got?
I do realise that markets can remain irrational, longer than etc but, seriously... time is surely up on this fellah?
FYI Drs.
I have now permanently blocked John Ralfe from my Twttr a/c
He constantly undermines your case with lies. e.g. "It is a myth that Drs work overtime for Free" and is now aggressively attacking my work without any good reason.
Life is too short (for me) to listen to him.
@StevieG_1967
My concern is that risk has been ignored for a long time with risk-free rates on the floor.
So, risky asset prices have been pumped up to horrendously high levels. Not a good place to reintroduce risk aversion, as
@hussmanjp
states here
@SusanDavid_PhD
A lot of depression is caused by Cognitive Distortions (e.g. All or Nothing aka Black and White thinking) which many people (including me) can overcome, just by learning about them. Recommended Book:
'Feeling Great' by Dr David Burns.
So, despite feeling in 'rude health' it turns out I need a CT angiogram. Just spoken to hospital who say I'll need to wait a while for this - because 'they're behind at the moment'
I'm assuming this is because of the ruddy taper tax right?
#scrapthetaper
@paullewismoney
We can all agree that we don't want violence on our streets,Paul.
But please don't try to tell us that those marchers were all supporting world peace. We hear enough of this biased commentary on
@BBCNews
all day long.
The evidence is very clear.
There are a *lot* of people
Few paid attention to the NHS pension problem, til waiting lists were hit.
Why?
Because very few believed our government really taxed Doctors at over 100% on overtime earnings.
Scroll to 7:40 for the 'reveal' from
@hall_nhs
that shocked
@mrjamesob
on this.
For those trying to rationalise extreme US stockmarket valuations you might want to read this.
You can't make a poke in the eye a pleasant experience just by comparing it to slamming your thumb with a hammer.
Great article and evidence from
@hussmanjp
@Sapere_vivere
Oh yes, he's always refused to allow anyone's agenda to get in the way of the pursuit of truth.
And that's not a welcome trait in most large organisations.
I speak from experience!
@berniespofforth
That's gruesome.
Evolution has resulted in some handsome creatures but some right weirdos too.
Your friend even has children there.
Eeeyuch!
Please
@paullewismoney
can you pick this up and educate your colleagues at the BBC
This presenter is challenging
@goldstone_tony
with a view that the public might not support their case.
Is anyone who understands this, seriously suggesting that Drs should pay more than 100% tax?
If you want to know more, follow the link.
It's one of my most popular posts and still perfectly valid, nearly 8 months on.
This is a scandal - please retweet if you agree.
And please fix this
@sajidjavid
and raise public awareness
@paullewismoney
When a big Building Society says the worst case is a 30% fall in home prices, you can assume the realistic worst case (in overpriced properties in overpriced areas) is much worse than that.
Between 1989 and 1996 I saw the price of flats in London's Docklands come down by 60%.
Today, sadly, but not surprisingly...
this chart is getting a lot of posts.
The message is to reassure you that whatever happens in the world - the good old stock market can be relied upon to rocket ever higher.
Of course, there's just one problem with this chart...