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Patrick Bury Profile
Patrick Bury

@PatrickBury

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Reader (Snr Assoc Prof) in Warfare + Counter-Terrorism @PoLIS_Bath . @UKRI_News Future Leaders Fellow. Ex @RIrishRegiment @natopapress .

London
Joined March 2011
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 year
This thread seems to have resonated with a few people. If you're interested I wrote this book about our platoon's experiences in Sangin... @simonschusterUK
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
11 months
Ukraine, East Africa, West Africa, Kosovo and Israel are all interlinked folks
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 year
“Operating at a very low level and masking themselves using the terrain where possible, as well as working at night, limits their vulnerability to SHORAD and especially shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles”…
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 year
1/ I remember asking a mate who’d just got back from intense combat in Helmand ‘06 what his “biggest lesson was?” I was expecting a tactical answer…
@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 year
Big story…
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 year
2/ like “in an L-Shaped ambush do this. On a hot LZ do this”. He simply looked me in straight in the eye and said “don’t let your blokes lose their humanity”…
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 year
4/ Combat and killing is morally destructive to most soldiers over time. It’s why good leaders constantly work to shape the right culture, and balance between operational toughness + not losing your humanity. @BBCBreaking @AJEnglish @RTENewsAtOne
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 months
@stellacreasy The 1930s analogies just keep coming 😬
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 years
The role of Stingers, Javelins, logistics, + information in #UkraineWar rightfully in the spotlight, but to my mind its cohesion + morale, + the difficulty assessing these human factors that has impacted this war the most so far. A🧵on morale, cohesion + int sec outcomes… 1/5
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 year
6/  . I think, in hindsight, this unacknowledged agreement I had with my platoon sergeant worked well. He kept the platoon sharp and ready, “loaded” as it were, and I was the safety catch that made sure the gun didn’t go off at the wrong place at the wrong people. . . .
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 year
3/ at the time, as a subbie, I didn’t get it. But it hit me like a boulder halfway through our Sangin tour two years later. It was exactly the challenge I was facing as a leader …
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 year
10/ My moral compass, for all its wavering, was still pointing North. And that was the most important lesson I was taught in Sandhurst, and that I learnt in Afghanistan.
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
3 years
Remembering Ranger Justin ‘Cups’ Cupples, killed by an IED around this time on 4 Sep 2008 in Sangin. An extremely bright, funny + interesting man from Co. Cavan /Miami who was always on my shoulder. Sorely missed. @RIrishRegiment @16AirAssltBde
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 year
5/ My platoon sergeant would always strive to keep the soldiers sharp, aggressive, and ready to fight their way out of any situation. . . . However, as a junior officer I felt the need to morally temper what the platoon sergeant had said to the men. . . .
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 year
7/ As the tour went on the platoon was so well drilled it barely needed me for my tactical acumen. But they did increasingly need me for that morality…
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 year
11/ the last part of this thread is taken from an article I wrote for @BritishArmy The Infantryman magazine (as it was then) in 2009. Thanks to @NigelBiggar for recording it here, as I’ve no idea where it’s gone!
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 year
8/ Sometimes I felt my own morality begin to slip, that hardness creeping in. Sometimes I thought that I was soft, that my platoon sergeant was right and I should shut up and get on with it. Sometimes I’m sure the platoon felt like that! …
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
11 months
Who woulda known? “The just-in-time, just-enough economy we built together in 30 years in our liberal economies is fine for a lot of things - but not the armed forces when there is a war ongoing." FFS 🤦‍♂️
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 year
9/ I was unsure. And at these times my memory would flit back to Sandhurst, to the basics, and I would find renewed vigour [sic] that what I was saying was indeed right….
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 years
@ThreshedThought Clearly untrained conscripts. Literally canon fodder. Hard to watch from a professional soldiering perspective
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 years
Great read 👇 from @RALee85
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 year
Systematic castration of male POWs + rape of women then sealing them with filler. Sickening. The cause against Russia cannot be clearer now folks… Give Ukraine everything they need now
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 months
@kateferguson4 “As the wolf attacks the sheep, so come we.” Joseph Goebbels, 1928, on Nazi goals for Reichstag seats. Worth reading the whole thing too as I’m sure Farage Inc will be milking the expenses while they’re at it
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
8 months
It's time Western leaders + populations realised we're already in a strategic multi-theatre knife fight. Stop self-deterring. Stop trying to contain everywhere. Get the factories going. Get some grit. Make some Ds. Get fighting. Before we lose.
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
11 months
@21aar_show They are. They all represent the multi theatre multi domain competition going on at present
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
5 years
Delighted to say the good folk @PoLIS_Bath have deemed me worthy of promotion to Senior Lecturer! Thanks to everyone who’s supported along the way, esp @kennedycdog @antbruceking @DJGalbreath @TE_EJIS + @UKRI_News
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 month
@MentallyDivine He may well have lost the election with that
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
4 months
Russians now really targeting Ukrainian railways to disrupt mil aid coming in. Hitting energy helps too. And once done these are not quick fixes folks.
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
4 years
1/4 The UK govt Covid response is increasingly looking like a calamity. Since 2010 the UK’s National Security Risk Assessment has recognised a major public health disaster, in particular pandemic influenza, as a Tier One threat to national security.
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 year
Air forces are often key to stopping coups - we saw this in Turkey and Sudan - and it’s notable how absent Russian AF has been so far
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
4 months
👇🏽 folks. The delayed US aid and Ukraine’s failure mobilise quicker has handed Russia this window of opportunity this summer, and made it more difficult for Ukraine to mount major offensive actions in 2025…
@emilkastehelmi
Emil Kastehelmi
4 months
The Russian offensive in Ocheretyne direction is worrying. Multiple villages have fallen in a rather short timeframe. However, the overall advances are still limited mostly to a tactical level. Russians haven't achieved an actual breakthrough, but are certainly trying to.
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 year
@RALee85 Did you catch this fascinating read on the drone folks supporting SBU Alpha @RALee85 ?
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
4 months
1/2 More details of rogue SAS squadron in Afghanistan in this serious + shocking report folks. Appears senior SF officers tried to act on info early but hit major…
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 year
15 years ago this morning we lost Ranger Justin Cupples in Sangin. A really bright young man with a lovely nature, he is sorely missed. Faugh A Ballagh Cups. @RIrishRegiment
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
4 months
A Russian “sub-threshold” sabotage campaign inside NATO nations folks 👇🏽Prob to increase costs of western support to Ukr, + cause divisions re response. Remember, Russia can only defeat NATO by targeting its politics, not militarily
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 years
... one potential avenue that has perhaps not been tapped as much as it could is developing numerous low-level HUMINT assets further down the pecking order, rather than focusing on those with higher level political and security insights. ENDS 15/15
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 month
The big picture is the damage unregulated smart phones, social media and offshore finance have done to democracies since 2007. Yup major issues too, but it’s the amplification of anger, (dis) info fragmentation + dark money that 1848-based democracies designed for the newspaper +
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
8 months
👏🏽 @sikorskiradek “[The West is] 20 times richer than Russia, but if Russia puts its economy on a wartime footing + we continue on a peacetime basis, they can outproduce us. Wars are not decided by tactical engagements but by industrial capacities, + we are behind the curve.” 👊🏽
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
5 years
Delighted to say we've been awarded @UKRI_News Future Leaders Fellowship to work on 👇!! Thanks to @dRichterova @GLOBSEC , the fantastic network behind us, + to everyone @UniofBath @SSI_Exeter and beyond who've helped along the way. And of course @antbruceking @kennedycdog
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 years
It’s even harder to assess an adversary’s will to fight before a campaign starts + the rounds are incoming. It looks like the FSB tried to gauge Ukrainian morale + cohesion forces before the war + got it badly, badly wrong… 6/15
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 years
And this inaccurate assessment has had also major implications for the morale + cohesion of some units of the Russian army, now faced with fighting their Ukrainian brethren when they were told they were liberating them… 8/15
@StevenBeschloss
Steven Beschloss
2 years
Russian POW: “Russia cannot win here anyway. All the variants are obvious. Even if we go till the very end…We can invade the territory, but we cannot invade the people.”
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 years
Cohesion is the “extent to which members come together to form the group + hold together under stress to maintain the group.” There’s a lot of debate on how military groups cohere, but essentially it can be boiled down to...
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 years
First up there are imp nuances between morale + cohesion. Morale = “A psychological state of mind, characterised by a sense of well-being based on confidence in the self and in primary groups”… it is the will to fight 2/15
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 years
It’s interesting to see Ukrainian civilians with little experience embedded in small units w more experienced personnel – this is a common approach to maximise cohesion whilst retaining knowledge – 'dead men’s lessons' are the hardest to relearn… 13/15
@UAWeapons
🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker
2 years
#Ukraine : Ukrainian forces taking out Russian tank(s), possibly T-72B3, with RPG-7 fire; seems two PG-7VM/S are fired.
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
4 months
@COYS_com The fan he’s talking to kept shouting at Ange to throw the game and he eventually lost it
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 months
@shashj This is really unsavoury.
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 year
@KyivIndependent And this is a man who really knows what he’s talking about
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
3 months
@Conservatives But you cut the councils and primary care and then invested in the NHS to show that despite investment it doesn’t work so you could privatise it
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 years
We will see how these often skimmed-over but imp human factors impact the war. As @antbruceking shows small team cohesion is crucial in the urban fight. History tells us social bonds in conscript armies have proven effective enough before. 14/15
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 year
1/ A few thoughts on the recent Oz case. I don’t have much more knowledge than open-source, + I don’t fancy getting sued. I wasn’t SF either. But…
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 year
If this is true, good man. Time for some Generals to pull the plug, on principle. And would be great if next one accepts and does same
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 months
I detest Farage + his politics + his comments re Ukraine were poorly chosen. I’m also 110% behind Ukraine. But here’s fmr US Sec Def (06-11) + Russia hawk Bob Gates on US/NATO mistakes when Russia was down + out. Does not excuse but does help explain. We do need to recognise our
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 year
“Neutrality has basically meant whatever the government of the day wants it to mean: so we are part of the Nato-aligned Partnership for Peace; we take part in EU battle groups; we are cautiously treading towards increased EU defence co-operation”
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 years
So what for #UkraineWar ? Overall, the Ukrainian unity + will to defend homeland is high; it’s a national struggle that the army, territorial defence units + civilians view as existential. Identities + narratives = powerful motivators @CliveMyrieBBC 10/15
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
4 months
I don’t think this is a war we can afford to lose folks … 👇🏽
@wartranslated
WarTranslated (Dmitri)
5 months
Essentially Putin is all in: his stakes are so high that if he manages to win, he wins everything, and no amount of losses would matter or hurt him. If he is to lose, he’ll lose everything, including his head, and Russia is likely to enter turmoil. But many still believe
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 years
Looking at the military aid for Ukraine announced last night by the Tallinn group I have to say for the first time ever I’m actually ashamed to be Irish given want other small countries are donating. It’s just wrong. @BerryCathal
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
23 days
Ireland on the same sheet as @UKLabour here, and they have more SM company HQs. Time to get stuck in and regulate like MSM.
@christinafinn8
Christina Finn
23 days
Taoiseach Simon Harris says the era of self regulation by social media companies is over He’s prepared to meet Elon Musk and other social media company execs to discuss Irish government plans for financial sanctions and personal liabilities for failing to remove harmful content
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 years
Cohesion-wise, professional forces rely more on their training + experience than social bonds – performance matters. Task focus compels group members to perform + this is what will be keeping the best Ukrainian army units going… 11/15
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
3 months
squadrons of f-16s, patriots , joint production, NATO membership in principle. This is quite the agreement. Wasn’t expecting so much 👏🏽👏🏽
@ZelenskyyUa
Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський
3 months
🇺🇦🇺🇸 Today is a truly historic day. We signed the strongest agreement between Ukraine and the United States since our independence.
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 years
These are apparently Russian tourniquets: zip-tied so they are no use to anyone bar the quartermaster’s books
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
8 months
“The Army Ranger Wing (ARW), the most elite and secretive unit of the Defence Forces, is to undertake its largest expansion and restructuring in its 43-year history”
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 years
@PhillipsPOBrien @thetimes I fink this change of tone highlights @dpatrikarakos 3 levels of info war. A change of narrative from “we’re getting hammered, help us” - which led to Western qs re postponing an inevitable Ukr loss @ discursive level - to “we can win this, help us” = more help, shorter war.
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
5 months
If only Ireland had the capacity to do this …
@POLITICOEurope
POLITICOEurope
5 months
Belgian and Czech intelligence services have exposed a Russian operation geared at swaying public opinion in favor of the Kremlin — including by paying sitting members of the European Parliament. Brussels Playbook has more 👇
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 years
1/ social (buddies), 2/ task (professionalism) + 3/ institutional (army, national) components… 3/15
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
3 years
Hearing 2 Para et al are doing a fantastic job at the airport in very difficult circumstances. Would make any veteran proud that there’s still those doing the right thing in this shambles
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
6 years
Delighted to announce that my new book, Mission Improbable: The Transformation of the British Army Reserve will be coming out the end of Jan with Howgate! @kirstin_howgate
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 years
So just to be clear, all of a sudden in Dublin there's far right anti-refugee marches + evictions, drone incidents at the airport and pro-Russia demos. 'Quite the coincidence, Watson.'...
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 years
As @LawDavF points out – this is the most important + costly mistake Russia has made – it means their original plan for a coup de main on Kiev has come unstuck, + Putin can’t meet his original political objectives through the use of force alone… 6/ 7/15
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 years
The picture will be different in the TDU’s + especially civilians, who have less or no training and will rely more on social cohesion to keep their groups together + keep fighting. Shared hardships, density of interactions, loyalty matter more w less training time. 12/15
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 year
This is a really great listen on a topic close to my heart - the Russian airborne op on Hostomel + why it went wrong. 👏🏽👏🏽 @KofmanMichael @SpencerGuard + @WarOnTheRocks
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 years
Its hard to measure in peacetime too. After the breakdown of cohesion in the latter Vietnam War, the US Army developed a statistical method of measuring cohesion, morale + readiness through unit surveys. They are accurate + can be illuminative but also time consuming… 5/15
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 year
The only regiment on D-Day to land a battalion by air (1RUR) and another by sea… #FaughABallagh
@RIrishRegiment
The Royal Irish Regiment
1 year
Pipe Major William Mitchell at Sword Beach Queen Red 11 (Hermanville sur Mer), the landing beach of 2nd Battalion The Royal Ulster Rifles on 6 June 1944.
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 years
It’s difficult to accurately gauge these even for your own forces – as a former officer in @RIrishRegiment @16AirAssltBCT even with all the training + kit we had, I never knew 100% how my platoon or I would perform under fire until it happened in Afghan. No-one does... 4/15
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 years
It’s not just the Russians who’ve messed this up in the last year – the west did in Afghanistan but for slightly different reasons 9/15
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
7 months
1/5 Biden’s FP policy was to keep status quo with Russia + Iran/ ME, to focus on China. All had containment as a major element of this strategy. But this has been flipped by events. The big strat question at the moment is…
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
4 months
Boom. US congress passes $61 billion mil aid package for Ukraine
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 year
Wow! Thanks Robert, glad you got something out of it.
@robert_lyman
Robert Lyman 🇺🇦
1 year
This is as good a book on men in battle as I have ever read. @PatrickBury
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 years
For those of you interested in research on reserve forces this new collection provides a really good overview of the state of the field with some new cases and approaches too @VinceConnelly1 @The_Irish_Texan @NeilDRich
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 years
Finally,western militaries are aware of the difficulties assessing adversaries’ morale+ cohesion + can’t survey their militaries like their own. Better resourced analysis would help but..
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 years
@irgarner Dire Straits
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 years
Morale can change though + is related to battlefield context...
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 months
Absolutely spot on from fmr head of 6👇🏽 and have heard this from numerous others
@LizWebsterSBF
Liz Webster
2 months
Former MI6 chief, Sir Alex Younger gives some Brexit truths. “Putin would’ve been absolutely delighted by our decision (to leave the EU) and so would Xi.” “Particularly since I've left office and I've travelled around Europe, I'm profoundly depressed. “Just nobody mentions the
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 year
I thought I knew a fair bit about the Vietnam War but this book really blew me away
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
4 years
So what’s your book of the year folks? Mine is @CatherineBelton ’s excellent Putin’s People. A forensic and devastating takedown of Russian dark money + active measures, it should be required reading on all politics courses. @PoLIS_Bath @DrJamesRogers @dRichterova
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
7 months
“I’m too old to be scared. They can only kill me.” This is the pure bravery of the human spirit. Powerful. 👇🏽
@EuromaidanPress
Euromaidan Press
7 months
Moscow. An elderly Russian woman lays flowers in memory of Alexei Navalny, a Russian opposition leader who died in prison. After paying tribute to Navalny, she unleashes a passionate rant against Vladimir Putin and Russia's war on Ukraine. 📹SOTA
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 year
Dumb + cheap = ubiquitous. 👇🏽is going to force an evolution in infantry tactics. Obvs there will be more per unit, some estimate UKR have 10 per company, + they last about 24 hours each… 1/3
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
7 months
1/7 A lot of talk about conscription at the moment, esp in UK. I’ve been researching this for a while so here’s a few thoughts: First up, threats + instability are increasing, western militaries’ size decreasing. In major wars, size matters too. Civilians win…
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 month
@joshrogin It’s the US, Europe + Indo PAC allies vs Russia, China, Iran + NK axis. They are more integrated + interdependent than Axis were start of WW2. Most of the rest of the world happy to hedge. If Vance can’t see the wider strategic play, he’s not paying enough attention. As you say
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
5 years
Delighted that our new paper, 'Bytes not Waves: Information Communication Technologies, Global Jihadism and Counter-Terrorism' has just been accepted by @IAJournal_CH . Great way to kick off our @UKRI_News Future Leaders Fellowship!
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
5 months
I’m not convinced firing 120 ballistic missiles at another state is signalling
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
5 months
If you don't feel safe now, imagine how you'll feel when Russia wins in Ukraine... spot on by Gen. Richard Barrons and @FrankRGardner
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
5 years
Looking forward to speaking to @dfreserve about Future Reserves 2020 and this new book this eve!
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
3 months
Re UK #nationalservice : Spent months researching this recently + 1 of the most important things I found was that understanding, support + desire to join armed forces was strongest amongst those with family members who had, or were serving… This means that… 1/4
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
2 months
This is exactly it👇🏽. People should be aiming their ire at those getting rich off smart phones and social meeja. This site is an utter cesspit if you wander outside your own lists
@charleskriel
Dr Charles Kriel
2 months
David Frum in The Atlantic. Why is America doing this? Because of the flood of unchecked disinformation streaming down the pipes of Meta, Google and Musk product. Unprecedented in history. And unstoppable until politicians grow a spine and regulate.
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
10 months
Don’t forget Ukraine. We can do this folks. We just need to hang together get the factories going and grind it out. The costs of not doing so are enormous
@aliona_hlivco
Aliona Hlivco🇺🇦🇬🇧
10 months
How we all feel.
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@PatrickBury
Patrick Bury
1 year
Fair play to @endabradymedia for banging the 🪘
@stevenconlon
Steve Conlon
1 year
Currently in Turkey. And we’re in the news for our defence spending. Or lack thereof.
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