This thread seems to have resonated with a few people. If you're interested I wrote this book about our platoon's experiences in Sangin...
@simonschusterUK
“Operating at a very low level and masking themselves using the terrain where possible, as well as working at night, limits their vulnerability to SHORAD and especially shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles”…
2/ like “in an L-Shaped ambush do this. On a hot LZ do this”. He simply looked me in straight in the eye and said “don’t let your blokes lose their humanity”…
4/ Combat and killing is morally destructive to most soldiers over time. It’s why good leaders constantly work to shape the right culture, and balance between operational toughness + not losing your humanity.
@BBCBreaking
@AJEnglish
@RTENewsAtOne
The role of Stingers, Javelins, logistics, + information in
#UkraineWar
rightfully in the spotlight, but to my mind its cohesion + morale, + the difficulty assessing these human factors that has impacted this war the most so far. A🧵on morale, cohesion + int sec outcomes… 1/5
6/ . I think, in hindsight, this unacknowledged agreement I had with my platoon sergeant worked well. He kept the platoon sharp and ready, “loaded” as it were, and I was the safety catch that made sure the gun didn’t go off at the wrong place at the wrong people. . . .
3/ at the time, as a subbie, I didn’t get it. But it hit me like a boulder halfway through our Sangin tour two years later. It was exactly the challenge I was facing as a leader …
10/ My moral compass, for all its wavering, was still pointing North. And that was the most important lesson I was taught in Sandhurst, and that I learnt in Afghanistan.
Remembering Ranger Justin ‘Cups’ Cupples, killed by an IED around this time on 4 Sep 2008 in Sangin. An extremely bright, funny + interesting man from Co. Cavan /Miami who was always on my shoulder. Sorely missed.
@RIrishRegiment
@16AirAssltBde
5/ My platoon sergeant would always strive to keep the soldiers sharp, aggressive, and ready to fight their way out of any situation. . . . However, as a junior officer I felt the need to morally temper what the platoon sergeant had said to the men. . . .
7/ As the tour went on the platoon was so well drilled it barely needed me for my tactical acumen. But they did increasingly need me for that morality…
11/ the last part of this thread is taken from an article I wrote for
@BritishArmy
The Infantryman magazine (as it was then) in 2009. Thanks to
@NigelBiggar
for recording it here, as I’ve no idea where it’s gone!
8/ Sometimes I felt my own morality begin to slip, that hardness creeping in. Sometimes I thought that I was soft, that my platoon sergeant was right and I should shut up and get on with it. Sometimes I’m sure the platoon felt like that! …
Who woulda known? “The just-in-time, just-enough economy we built together in 30 years in our liberal economies is fine for a lot of things - but not the armed forces when there is a war ongoing." FFS 🤦♂️
9/ I was unsure. And at these times my memory would flit back to Sandhurst, to the basics, and I would find renewed vigour [sic] that what I was saying was indeed right….
Systematic castration of male POWs + rape of women then sealing them with filler. Sickening. The cause against Russia cannot be clearer now folks… Give Ukraine everything they need now
@kateferguson4
“As the wolf attacks the sheep, so come we.” Joseph Goebbels, 1928, on Nazi goals for Reichstag seats. Worth reading the whole thing too as I’m sure Farage Inc will be milking the expenses while they’re at it
It's time Western leaders + populations realised we're already in a strategic multi-theatre knife fight. Stop self-deterring. Stop trying to contain everywhere. Get the factories going. Get some grit. Make some Ds. Get fighting. Before we lose.
Russians now really targeting Ukrainian railways to disrupt mil aid coming in. Hitting energy helps too. And once done these are not quick fixes folks.
1/4 The UK govt Covid response is increasingly looking like a calamity.
Since 2010 the UK’s National Security Risk Assessment has recognised a major public health disaster, in particular pandemic influenza, as a Tier One threat to national security.
👇🏽 folks. The delayed US aid and Ukraine’s failure mobilise quicker has handed Russia this window of opportunity this summer, and made it more difficult for Ukraine to mount major offensive actions in 2025…
The Russian offensive in Ocheretyne direction is worrying. Multiple villages have fallen in a rather short timeframe.
However, the overall advances are still limited mostly to a tactical level. Russians haven't achieved an actual breakthrough, but are certainly trying to.
1/2 More details of rogue SAS squadron in Afghanistan in this serious + shocking report folks. Appears senior SF officers tried to act on info early but hit major…
15 years ago this morning we lost Ranger Justin Cupples in Sangin. A really bright young man with a lovely nature, he is sorely missed. Faugh A Ballagh Cups.
@RIrishRegiment
A Russian “sub-threshold” sabotage campaign inside NATO nations folks 👇🏽Prob to increase costs of western support to Ukr, + cause divisions re response. Remember, Russia can only defeat NATO by targeting its politics, not militarily
... one potential avenue that has perhaps not been tapped as much as it could is developing numerous low-level HUMINT assets further down the pecking order, rather than focusing on those with higher level political and security insights. ENDS 15/15
The big picture is the damage unregulated smart phones, social media and offshore finance have done to democracies since 2007. Yup major issues too, but it’s the amplification of anger, (dis) info fragmentation + dark money that 1848-based democracies designed for the newspaper +
Really interesting read re strategy in 2023 👇 What’s not explained is relative Chinese and Russian /US production capacity tho…?
@PatPorter76
@ElbridgeColby
👏🏽
@sikorskiradek
“[The West is] 20 times richer than Russia, but if Russia puts its economy on a wartime footing + we continue on a peacetime basis, they can outproduce us.
Wars are not decided by tactical engagements but by industrial capacities, + we are behind the curve.” 👊🏽
It’s even harder to assess an adversary’s will to fight before a campaign starts + the rounds are incoming. It looks like the FSB tried to gauge Ukrainian morale + cohesion forces before the war + got it badly, badly wrong… 6/15
And this inaccurate assessment has had also major implications for the morale + cohesion of some units of the Russian army, now faced with fighting their Ukrainian brethren when they were told they were liberating them… 8/15
Russian POW: “Russia cannot win here anyway. All the variants are obvious. Even if we go till the very end…We can invade the territory, but we cannot invade the people.”
Cohesion is the “extent to which members come together to form the group + hold together under stress to maintain the group.” There’s a lot of debate on how military groups cohere, but essentially it can be boiled down to...
First up there are imp nuances between morale + cohesion. Morale = “A psychological state of mind, characterised by a sense of well-being based on confidence in the self and in primary groups”… it is the will to fight 2/15
It’s interesting to see Ukrainian civilians with little experience embedded in small units w more experienced personnel – this is a common approach to maximise cohesion whilst retaining knowledge – 'dead men’s lessons' are the hardest to relearn… 13/15
@Conservatives
But you cut the councils and primary care and then invested in the NHS to show that despite investment it doesn’t work so you could privatise it
We will see how these often skimmed-over but imp human factors impact the war. As
@antbruceking
shows small team cohesion is crucial in the urban fight. History tells us social bonds in conscript armies have proven effective enough before. 14/15
I detest Farage + his politics + his comments re Ukraine were poorly chosen. I’m also 110% behind Ukraine. But here’s fmr US Sec Def (06-11) + Russia hawk Bob Gates on US/NATO mistakes when Russia was down + out. Does not excuse but does help explain. We do need to recognise our
“Neutrality has basically meant whatever the government of the day wants it to mean: so we are part of the Nato-aligned Partnership for Peace; we take part in EU battle groups; we are cautiously treading towards increased EU defence co-operation”
So what for
#UkraineWar
? Overall, the Ukrainian unity + will to defend homeland is high; it’s a national struggle that the army, territorial defence units + civilians view as existential. Identities + narratives = powerful motivators
@CliveMyrieBBC
10/15
Essentially Putin is all in: his stakes are so high that if he manages to win, he wins everything, and no amount of losses would matter or hurt him.
If he is to lose, he’ll lose everything, including his head, and Russia is likely to enter turmoil.
But many still believe
Looking at the military aid for Ukraine announced last night by the Tallinn group I have to say for the first time ever I’m actually ashamed to be Irish given want other small countries are donating. It’s just wrong.
@BerryCathal
Taoiseach Simon Harris says the era of self regulation by social media companies is over
He’s prepared to meet Elon Musk and other social media company execs to discuss Irish government plans for financial sanctions and personal liabilities for failing to remove harmful content
Cohesion-wise, professional forces rely more on their training + experience than social bonds – performance matters. Task focus compels group members to perform + this is what will be keeping the best Ukrainian army units going… 11/15
“The Army Ranger Wing (ARW), the most elite and secretive unit of the Defence Forces, is to undertake its largest expansion and restructuring in its 43-year history”
@PhillipsPOBrien
@thetimes
I fink this change of tone highlights
@dpatrikarakos
3 levels of info war. A change of narrative from “we’re getting hammered, help us” - which led to Western qs re postponing an inevitable Ukr loss @ discursive level - to “we can win this, help us” = more help, shorter war.
Belgian and Czech intelligence services have exposed a Russian operation geared at swaying public opinion in favor of the Kremlin — including by paying sitting members of the European Parliament.
Brussels Playbook has more 👇
Hearing 2 Para et al are doing a fantastic job at the airport in very difficult circumstances. Would make any veteran proud that there’s still those doing the right thing in this shambles
Delighted to announce that my new book, Mission Improbable: The Transformation of the British Army Reserve will be coming out the end of Jan with Howgate!
@kirstin_howgate
So just to be clear, all of a sudden in Dublin there's far right anti-refugee marches + evictions, drone incidents at the airport and pro-Russia demos. 'Quite the coincidence, Watson.'...
As
@LawDavF
points out – this is the most important + costly mistake Russia has made – it means their original plan for a coup de main on Kiev has come unstuck, + Putin can’t meet his original political objectives through the use of force alone… 6/ 7/15
The picture will be different in the TDU’s + especially civilians, who have less or no training and will rely more on social cohesion to keep their groups together + keep fighting. Shared hardships, density of interactions, loyalty matter more w less training time. 12/15
Its hard to measure in peacetime too. After the breakdown of cohesion in the latter Vietnam War, the US Army developed a statistical method of measuring cohesion, morale + readiness through unit surveys. They are accurate + can be illuminative but also time consuming… 5/15
Pipe Major William Mitchell at Sword Beach Queen Red 11 (Hermanville sur Mer), the landing beach of 2nd Battalion The Royal Ulster Rifles on 6 June 1944.
It’s difficult to accurately gauge these even for your own forces – as a former officer in
@RIrishRegiment
@16AirAssltBCT
even with all the training + kit we had, I never knew 100% how my platoon or I would perform under fire until it happened in Afghan. No-one does... 4/15
1/5 Biden’s FP policy was to keep status quo with Russia + Iran/ ME, to focus on China. All had containment as a major element of this strategy. But this has been flipped by events. The big strat question at the moment is…
For those of you interested in research on reserve forces this new collection provides a really good overview of the state of the field with some new cases and approaches too
@VinceConnelly1
@The_Irish_Texan
@NeilDRich
Finally,western militaries are aware of the difficulties assessing adversaries’ morale+ cohesion + can’t survey their militaries like their own. Better resourced analysis would help but..
Former MI6 chief, Sir Alex Younger gives some Brexit truths.
“Putin would’ve been absolutely delighted by our decision (to leave the EU) and so would Xi.”
“Particularly since I've left office and I've travelled around Europe, I'm profoundly depressed.
“Just nobody mentions the
So what’s your book of the year folks? Mine is
@CatherineBelton
’s excellent Putin’s People. A forensic and devastating takedown of Russian dark money + active measures, it should be required reading on all politics courses.
@PoLIS_Bath
@DrJamesRogers
@dRichterova
Moscow. An elderly Russian woman lays flowers in memory of Alexei Navalny, a Russian opposition leader who died in prison.
After paying tribute to Navalny, she unleashes a passionate rant against Vladimir Putin and Russia's war on Ukraine.
📹SOTA
Dumb + cheap = ubiquitous. 👇🏽is going to force an evolution in infantry tactics. Obvs there will be more per unit, some estimate UKR have 10 per company, + they last about 24 hours each… 1/3
1/7 A lot of talk about conscription at the moment, esp in UK. I’ve been researching this for a while so here’s a few thoughts: First up, threats + instability are increasing, western militaries’ size decreasing. In major wars, size matters too. Civilians win…
@joshrogin
It’s the US, Europe + Indo PAC allies vs Russia, China, Iran + NK axis. They are more integrated + interdependent than Axis were start of WW2. Most of the rest of the world happy to hedge. If Vance can’t see the wider strategic play, he’s not paying enough attention. As you say
Delighted that our new paper, 'Bytes not Waves: Information Communication Technologies, Global Jihadism and Counter-Terrorism' has just been accepted by
@IAJournal_CH
. Great way to kick off our
@UKRI_News
Future Leaders Fellowship!
Re UK
#nationalservice
: Spent months researching this recently + 1 of the most important things I found was that understanding, support + desire to join armed forces was strongest amongst those with family members who had, or were serving… This means that… 1/4
This is exactly it👇🏽. People should be aiming their ire at those getting rich off smart phones and social meeja. This site is an utter cesspit if you wander outside your own lists
David Frum in The Atlantic. Why is America doing this? Because of the flood of unchecked disinformation streaming down the pipes of Meta, Google and Musk product. Unprecedented in history. And unstoppable until politicians grow a spine and regulate.
Don’t forget Ukraine. We can do this folks. We just need to hang together get the factories going and grind it out. The costs of not doing so are enormous