I just declined a dream full time job in a wonderful institution abroad with great people. It was heart wrenching but I felt ashamed to leave Lebanon when it is experiencing its most existential challenge. I will be joining another local wonderful institution: univ. of Balamand.
Do not rent from
@SurpriceCars
, (Portugal) they are total scammers. We had to pay 703€ for a tiny scratch that can be easily polished. That we are not sure we made it. Plus, they are rude, impolite and fraudulent. Shameful!
Discussing Levantine genetics, and the spread of the Semitic language with L. Lazaridis, D. Reich and NN Taleb over a Mediterranean meal!
@nntaleb
@iosif_lazaridis
PLEASE STAY HOME! Don’t be scared, the number of cases will increase for a while, but they will decrease again soon AND FAST if we all stay home. WE ARE IN IT TOGETHER! LET US LOOK OUT TO EACH OTHERS AND PROTECT ONE ANOTHER. ONE FOR ALL!!
Lebanon is going on lockdown from Wednesday evening until Monday morning (4 days), I am searching for a sensible rationale behind this decision, anyone?
THIS IS NOT A JOKE:
A typical day in Mount Lebanon: power from 6AM-8AM, and from 2PM-4PM. That’s 4 hours of power between 6AM-12AM. Our “competent” government has been running (for years) a 2 billion $ deficit a year, just on power. And get this they are still in power!!!
This afternoon I lost my childhood friend to COVID-19, the sweetest man and the best football player I ever saw. What hurts even more is that I cannot mourn his loss with his family and kids. What has become a of us!!! What kind of a life is this?
We need to know how the virus is spreading in the community and who is more likely to spread it? The more we know the better we can prevent
@yaneerbaryam
@nntaleb
@normonics
Lockdown is working, it should have been done before the holidays, it would have saved many lives. The PCR positivity is dropping, it is under 20%. A good sign. Alas too many lives lost already.
Pity a nation when, in the 21st century, the IMF refuses to loan its government money unless it provides its citizens with electricity, water and other basic necessities!
More pitiful, when this nation is home to the oldest continuously inhabited city (Byblos) on the planet!
There is novel variant (501.V2) that is not very reactive to current antibodies. Shut down incoming air travel or enforce a full 14 day quarantine, until we figure out what the hell is going on. Act now quickly and think later.
I watched
@Vision2030LBCI
with
@AlbertKostanian
, a show that I like, and I decided it is time to emigrate (again) and fast.
All I see around me are “experts” and in every field. If we have so many experts in this country, why then are we such a failure of a country??
تستضيف حلقة "اللقاح، نهاية الكابوس؟" من برنامج #عشرين_30 الباحث في علم الوراثة والجينات د. بيار زلوعا الإثنين بتمام الساعة 9:40 مساءً عبر شاشة الـLBCI
@PZalloua
@AlbertKostanian
Game changer in COVID 19 fight: mandating face masks
Second potential game changer in COVID 19 fight: quick but rigorous study on the potential prophylactic effect of Hydroxychloroquine (in China, Italy, France, Spain)
@nntaleb
@normonics
There are now at least 6 different vaccines against SARS Cov-2 (Moderna, Pfizer, Astrazeneca, Novavax, Janssen, Sinopharm). I would take the first available one. The benefit/risk ratio of any of these is favorable!
-Me: I would like to transfer $.. to my US bank account
-Lebanese Bank teller: why do you want to transfer the money?
-Me: to pay my bills
-Bank teller: what bills, do you have proofs
-Me: IT IS MY MONEY WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU
-Bank teller: who do you think you are.. click
Lebanon, an antifragile failed state: 1.5 million refugees (>30% of local population) yet health system did not collapse; Facing Covid, 5 deaths per million with minimal resources.
152% GDP/Debt ratio, 30+ years of institutionalized corruption. It is the country of “antagonism”
Finally some good news, we have started to move the hospitalization curve downward. Still a long way to go and more losses and sufferings but if we keep careful we can bring the numbers down further!
I keep asking myself, who is thinking of those who retired last year or are about to retire and seeing their pensions or savings evaporate.This happenend to my father 30 years ago and it is happening today to many parents. Except, I don’t see a light
@HuseinNourdin
@wael_atallah
I went to one of the largest grocery stores around 5pm, lots of people, shocking prices (scary) but everyone, every single person was wearing a mask properly (hope) we are in it together and together we will make it and cross safely over, then we tackle the price issue!!
Think about this for a sec: a tiny virus, stopped the entire world in its tracks, defying the Harvards, Stanfords and Oxfords of the world with their brilliant scientists and their billions in funding...>100,000 dead within 2 months and counting. Best advice is a 100 year old!
It is “GAME OVER” for the LBP and all those incompetent tyrants that got us here. Can we try a fresh start for once? Not only for us who still believe but for future generations?
Any talk about Lebanon reaching herd immunity is not only stupid but reckless. We are far from it and we will not reach it unless we vaccinate and vaccinate massively.
We can’t continue to live in denial: The economic crisis in Lebanon has nothing to do with the economy. Lebanon is not collapsing, it has collapsed long ago, and if we don’t admit to these facts, we cannot fix our problems.
Wear surgical masks (more effective); don’t get into an elevator without your mask, even when alone; avoid holding indoor meetings without a source of fresh air (open window); keep a safe distance even if everyone is wearing a mask. Stay safe.
Bad epidemiologists are surfacing faster than Omicron is spreading. Yes Omicron is bad, nasty, but we need good and robust science to know what is going on. Overreacting is essential, but spreading bad science is harmful. We need more time and data to understand this variant.
Unfortunately we need a couple of makeshift hospitals immediately to deal with what is coming. We have not reached the peak.Hospitalization follows 7-10 days after. Let us all mobilize (Government, NGO, private sectors, Universities, International community) to make it happen.
To all of us mourning the loss of someone murdered on the 4th of August 2020, today feels no different than the day after the explosion! The pain does not go away!!! We feel their absence with every breath we take!
We have to vaccinate at a rate of 20k-25k per day to get to a safe place soon. If we can’t (we are not), we must implement severe mitigation measures (we are not). We cannot have it both ways. Numbers of infections are not dropping.
@nntaleb
Here is the real deal:
@nntaleb
was furious because his lovely family told him that they will not fire up the barbecue (lamb meat?) nor serve the squid until “THE GUEST OF HONOR” (ME) arrives!
Lebanon has 5,423 cases today. This is bad but positivity rate of 19.5% is what is really scary !! Lockdown is not going to be the sole answer to cut down these numbers. Household transmissions are driving these numbers as well as super-spreaders. These need to be tackled fast!
Social distancing + face mask + staying home unless absolutely necessary to go out = the only successful strategy against Covid-19. There is no other way!
Friday night confinement survival ritual. You got me hooked on it
@nntaleb
, we will meet again
@spwells
on this same balcony and will fix it for all three of us. Hemingway would have invented it!
Today there are more cars on the road than any other day since this pandemic. AND we are testing significantly less people = nb of cases meaningless. Both of these indicators are a recipe for a disaster. Wake up people, we need to be all responsible in fighting this.
Another heavenly place in the middle of all the chaos. One of the best red wines of 🇱🇧 and the wonderful couple that makes it! You can’t but fall in love with our 🇱🇧.
Staying ahead of SARS-Cov-2:
1- Vaccinate fast, fast, fast
2- Use any available vaccine with safety and efficacy data published
3- Massive use of antigen testing to identify potential spreaders
This week's
@EmpirePodUK
:
Sykes-Picot: Carving up the Middle-East
Between 23 November 1915 and 3 January 1916 an English aristocrat and a French colonial official drew a line on a map: the basis for an Anglo-French partition of the Ottoman Empire.
1- LOCK DOWN NOW..think later
2-TEST TEST TEST (as much as possible) while there is a window to act, soon it will be too late
3- Case tracing as best as possible, using every avenue at your disposal, and isolate
4- Test for seroconversion as it becomes available and robust.
@nntaleb
No public transportation, no football games, school and universities closure early, very few flights in and most importantly: media played a huge role by overreacting,making everyone paranoid.
Looks like confinement all over again and more strict than before. Testing may not help at this stage as contact tracing is going to be a huge challenge. Wear a mask, observe social distancing with only essential outings!
Earliest inhabitants of Mount Lebanon (who became Maronites) came from Armenia and most probably brought wine with them to the Levant.
First pub of the EAST MED CENTER at Balamand.
Real science is when you stand historians on their head.
We all need to pause and absorb that New Zealand and to a large extent Australia eliminated/suppressed SARS-Cov-2 without a single vaccine inoculation. We don’t have to wait for the vaccine to stop virus spread!
@yaneerbaryam
Covid 19 Vaccines should be administered in vaccination centers throughout the country by pharmacists (preferably) and other trained health professionals (not nurses or clinicians who are badly needed for Covid 19 disease management). Keep hospitals for treating patients.
Get the vaccine to as many adults over 55 as soon as possible. THAT SHOULD BE THE ONLY STRATEGY. There are less than 1.2 millions over the age of 55. Do what is right for once!
The Health Ministry will launch a platform to register the names of those who want to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, the head of Parliament’s health committee, MP Assem Araji (Future/Zahle), has announced
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I make craft Kebbés to preserve a tradition running in the family since 1889. I'm thinking about delivering the first piece this summer only if Deus vult!
IG: @ thymes961
Fi byetrko, fi byeb2o, fi byejo!
Ba3d ma
@PZalloua
2arrar yb2a bi baladna bhal fatra lse3bé,
mfakkar ana erja3, la intemé la jém3a bi Lebnén la 2awwé l ma3nawiyyét (w 3allém l tlémiz Data Science).