If you remove
#Bitcoin
that hasn't moved in 10+ years, the percent of the supply in profit has recently reached all-time lows.
32.73% of the supply is sitting in profit, lower than all prior bear markets.
If bottoms occur during max pain, we are certainly there/close to it.
#Bitcoin
Exchange Netflow posted a massive number yesterday.
Coins transferred to and from exchanges resulted in a net move of 23.2k coins moving OFF exchanges yesterday.
This has only happened 3 other times in the last 2 years. Each time led to a price rally shortly after...
Wow,
#Bitcoin
just left the green zone of the Dormancy Flow indicator.
This level has historically called out macro bottoms.
$BTC reached this low level for only the 4th time since 2011.
Days Spent in the 🟢 Zone:
Last 2 times: Average 34 days
This time: 32 days
#Bitcoin
New Addresses has been lower than normal for a cycle top.
We know this. Retail isn't here. Nothing new.
But I couldn't help but notice that this trend from 2017 leading up to the parabolic top looks eerily similar to the current new address trend...
20,079
#Bitcoin
were net removed from exchanges yesterday (difference of inflows & outflows).
That's 0.8% of all exchange BTC taken off in a day.
This is the 7th largest daily negative netflow this year.
Over the last 3 days, 38,727 $BTC have been net removed from exchanges.
It finally happened.
I've been waiting all bear market to see if the
#Bitcoin
Percent Supply in Profit would dip below 50% and it just did.
This is significant because this metric dipped below 50% in each of BTC's prior bear market bottoms & March 2020.
I’m humbled that over 30,000 people follow my analysis.
My goal has always been to simply add value to the
#Bitcoin
community and I didn’t expect to grow so quickly.
I appreciate all of your support. 🤝
Might be a coincidence. Or it might be a pattern of human psychology during a period of prolonged loss.
Either way, it's hard for me to ignore the similarities of
#Bitcoin
Realized Loss spikes over the last few months vs Summer '21.
The RHODL Ratio has been historically accurate in identifying
#Bitcoin
market cycle tops.
2 things:
1) We never crossed into the overheated red zone this cycle
2) We're at the same level now, at $47.6k, that we were when price was at $33.5k.
An update on
#Bitcoin
EA Dormancy Flow.
We're now at levels that we've only been at in 3 other periods of time in Bitcoin's history (excl. 2010 action):
🟠Oct - Dec 2011
🟠Jan 2015
🟠Nov - Dec 2018
The metric is now lower than March 2020...
15,439
#Bitcoin
were net removed from exchanges yesterday.
Looking at the aftermath of the March 2020 crash (3/22/20), 581,815 $BTC have been net removed from exchanges.
Probably nothing
In just over 10 months, the 🇨🇦
#Bitcoin
Spot ETF has doubled in size.
On average, the ETF has added over 59 BTC per day.
It now holds 36,322 BTC.
Just imagine what the demand would be like for a US Spot ETF...
In summary, LFG has gone from having $3.1 billion in their reserves a week ago to now having roughly $87M. Which means they spent roughly $3 billion defending the UST peg and UST still collapsed.
It looks like
#Bitcoin
is pumping on news that the Biden crypto executive order isn’t negative/damaging and I’m just sitting here laughing that people still think governments can stop Bitcoin…
#Bitcoin
has spent 115 days (and counting) in and around the green value zone of the EA Dormancy Flow.
This is the longest amount of time we've spent in this zone in BTC's history.
#Bitcoin
Relative Unrealized Loss (RUL) just bounced in the same zone as the peak of this metric during the July '21 bottom.
Understanding RUL (Unrealized Loss/Market Cap) can help us get a sense of how underwater the market is.
Not calling a bottom, but I find this interesting
The Canadian 🇨🇦
#Bitcoin
Spot ETF Purpose has increased their holdings by 31%, or ~7,700 $BTC, since the end of November.
The ETF currently holds 32,329 BTC.
Bitcoin is around $49K and we're this low on the MVRV Z-Score.
I don't think most people understand how high price can peak this cycle if this chart even remotely rhymes to the past.
IMO
#Bitcoin
Sellers are getting exhausted.
Realized profits are wedging down to low levels. This happens naturally as price moves down as less supply is in profit.
But % supply in profit at the end of Dec. spiked while realized profits did not.
Let me explain... 1/4
The amount of
#Bitcoin
flowing to exchanges from miners is at historically low levels.
There is low selling pressure from miners, and it's been macro decreasing for a year.
Strong hands stacking. Miner sell pressure decreasing. Only missing ingredient is a catalyst for demand
7.7 million
#Bitcoin
are currently sitting in loss. This is the highest amount since April 15th, 2020.
That's almost 41% of the total circulating supply.
Fear, FOMO, & FOMC affect
#Bitcoin
short-term but adoption is straight up and to the right.
New All-Time High of over 40 million addresses with a non-zero balance yesterday
As a macro investor, I focus on the bigger
#Bitcoin
picture.
I spend more time thinking in months/years vs. days/weeks.
And I personally love where BTC is right now...
The Canadian 🇨🇦
#Bitcoin
Spot ETF is a really interesting story to follow.
The amount of BTC that it holds has increased by 41% since the end of November.
The ETF added 2,409 BTC over the last 3 days.
One can only imagine what the demand would look like with a US Spot ETF...
I've been monitoring this
#Bitcoin
chart daily.
Big thing I keep my eyes on is for when the trend for both net realized profit and loss decrease to low levels.
Tells me that sellers may be exhausted, and we potentially could have more drastic price movement if buyers step in...
Net Realized Profit/Loss shows us the difference between Realized Profit & Loss.
Notice the price correlation during the periods of net realized loss (pink) as capitulation occurs.
Keeping my eyes on whether these losses continue or flip to a period of sustained realized profit
I'm a simple man.
I love
#Bitcoin
, and I love
#Bitcoin
even more when the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio falls below 1 and drops into the red zone.
I keep it simple...
Peak
#Bitcoin
FOMO can be seen by analyzing the spike (green circle) in the 30 day change 🔵 in addresses with a non-zero balance 🎀
We saw similar behavior in the beginning of 2021, but nothing as drastic as the cycle peak of 2017.
Something I'll be watching if price shoots up
38% of the
#Bitcoin
circulating supply is sitting in loss.
This is the highest level since April 2020.
The Summer '21 crash peaked at around 34% of supply in loss.
The
#Bitcoin
balance on exchanges just hit a new low for the first time since November 2018.
While fluctuations occur in the short-term, it's been interesting to watch this level macro decrease since the March 2020 crash.
#Bitcoin
MPI looks at miner outflows compared to the yearly average of miner outflows.
You can see this metric peak as miners sell into price strength.
You can also see the lows during the bear market in '18.
The ATH in Nov '21 was not enticing enough for Miners to sell...
Delta Price is currently ~$14,333
If you look at the prior 3
#Bitcoin
bear market bottoms, you can see the importance of this line in the past.
I'm genuinely curious: Do you think BTC will reach the Delta Price this bear market?
Comment & vote below
Tons of signal in the
#Bitcoin
Exchange 30 Day Net Position Change chart.
Shift to positive🟢 in May '21 actually indicated a price/momentum trend shift weeks before the price crashed.
Oct/Nov '21 & Jan '22 gave similar signals 🟢
There is also signal when we're negative 🎀👀
Almost 61% of the
#Bitcoin
circulating supply has not moved in at least a year.
That's 11,551,387 BTC.
Historically, this metric rises until the cycle price run up begins. It then plateaus and then decreases as old coins are sold.
It usually bottoms shortly after the peak.
The number of addresses holding at least 0.01
#Bitcoin
just hit an all-time high at just under 9.5 million addresses.
On-chain analysis gives us front row seats to the adoption of the greatest invention in our lifetime.
I'm ready for the
#Bitcoin
party to start.
🟠 - Large entities (or a large part of the network) have been selling or haven't been accumulating
⚪️ - Large entities have been accumulating
🟣 circle - periods where we've gone from dark orange to white as price was increasing
The
#Bitcoin
Lightning Network Capacity just hit an all-time high.
Capacity is now 3,400 $BTC, which is over 3 times the capacity from a year ago.
Extraordinary growth here continues to fuel macro BTC adoption
The amount of
#Bitcoin
last moved more than 10 years ago just hit 2.4 million coins.
It's likely most of these coins are lost forever.
As Satoshi said, "Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone."
There are 1,646 Bitcoin Whales, based off of Glassnode's advanced entity clustering algorithms.
Whales are defined as entities that hold over 1K BTC.
There are now 147 more whales since the start of 2024.
Big money is investing in BTC
The reason I like the RHODL Ratio so much is because it didn't falsely call a top in 2013 on the first leg up.
Quite a few other OC metrics were in their respective red zone during this first peak.
Shoutout to
@PositiveCrypto
for creating this one.
Let's see how it plays out..
If we look at prior Bitcoin Halvings and compare this cycle to the last cycle, we are currently at an end of September 2020 period.
At the end of Sept 2020, the BTC price went from $10.5K to over $56K just 5 months later.
History doesn't repeat but let's see if it rhymes
The
#Bitcoin
Profit/Loss Bands have officially crossed.
I have been waiting for this since December 2021. I wrote an article (linked below) in Dec. about how I analyze this trend to try and spot a bear market bottom.
A significant development in BTC's bottom forming process.
Massive hourly
#Bitcoin
long and short liquidations.
Price moved in one giant 'U' and essentially returned back to the original price level in under 24 hours
I work in probabilities.
When we look at the period of the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple that we're at now compared to comparable levels in the past (same MM level, with MM not in a steep decline), the conclusion is clear.
Higher probability of higher prices for Bitcoin this year.
#Bitcoin
price jumped a couple thousand dollars and is right back down to where it started about 1.5 hours later.
In the end, shorts got the worse deal here with over $47 million in short liquidations in an hour vs. just under $10 million in long liquidations so far...
Welcome to the 1st Edition of Saturday Speculation.
There are patterns everywhere. Sometimes they play out, sometimes they don't.
#Bitcoin
Price & Realized Losses- a perfect match for some spontaneous, potentially substandard speculation...
The
#Bitcoin
Long Liquidations continue...
Over $30 million in long liquidations in 1 hour today, the second highest hourly amount in 4 days and the 3rd highest hourly amount in about a month.
22.8% of the
#Bitcoin
circulating supply has not moved in at least 5 years.
19.5% of the supply hasn't moved in at least 7 years.
It's likely a significant portion of these coins are lost.
As Satoshi said, "Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more."
Even if you assume diminishing peaks for Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score, I can't help but look at this chart and get extremely bullish for BTC over the next year.