John Grady @NoBSDayTrading Twitter profile

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

4 years

For new traders. The order book shows liquidity which is one reason to watch it. ES is thick today compared to the last few weeks. Hence the slower movement. Light liquidity = more volatility. This is why markets go from slow to fast to slow. July 29th vs 17th as an example...

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

5 years

You're witnessing history in the making. It will now be, "Do you guys remember 2020?? How crazy was that??" Today's 25 year olds will be telling this trading story when they are 35.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

1 year

I've posted a new YT video for anyone who's interested.

Order flow basics 2 - The influence of size and spoofing

This video shows clear examples of the ways size and spoofing influence price movement. It also explains the importance of being able to anticipate market or...

www.youtube.com

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

1 year

I'm on a roll and in the mood to educate. Look at the volume profile. There's not much between 08.50 and 09.50 because the firms aren't selling there. They only buy there triggering the move. Then they dump into the buy stops. Then scalp back and forth again. That's the game.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

1 year

If you want to beat this game in the long run, you have to understand what these large firms are doing. The reality is they have far too much money and can frequently move price wherever they want far too easily. The trick is anticipating what they are going to do next.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

3 years

For new traders interested in price action/order flow. Compare the first hour of stock index movement yesterday to today. All days are not created equal. Hard to make money in erratic chop. Easier to ride nice waves of momentum. Gotta get it while it's there.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

4 years

I've showed this before but thought I'd reiterate for new traders. Much less liquidity today in the ES. Fewer contracts means more volatility and highly erratic movement. This typically makes a market harder to read and creates larger swings in the P&L. Yesterday vs today

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

7 years

Btw, thanks to everyone who listened to the podcast and thanks for all the positive, kind words. Glad so many people enjoyed it.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

4 years

I posted a new YT video. Hope some of you find it helpful.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

3 years

Welcome to the next round of extreme volatility. Multiple rate hikes? Probs. Inflation through the roof? Yep. Beating on the war drum? Unfortunately. This kind of vol is likely to last awhile so find an edge. The opportunities will be there. Gonna be more big runs both ways.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

7 years

Happy holidays to everyone. For new traders who haven't seen dead holiday markets, here's my suggestion. Call today the end of your trading year, don't trade next week and then come back on Jan 4th for ADP and Jan 5th for non-farm Friday. You will save yourself a lot of boredom.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

1 year

Notice the liquidity in the indexes is a fraction of what it was this morning. Bids and offers reduced substantially after the reversal. Will likely be nothing but whipsaw action the rest of the day with unpredictable spikes now and then. Good weekend to you all.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

2 years

Imo, the action in stock indexes this morning is some of the worst type of price action. Usually best to avoid it. Easy to slowly get sliced and diced out of money in the erratic back and forth movement. Type of day when traders give away money for no reason.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

6 years

Random thought. When asked a question, it is perfectly fine to say, "I don't know." When trading, be honest with yourself. If you don't have a read, don't trade. Pros know when they don't know. The opportunity will present itself if you wait for it.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

5 years

Limit down...again. For those who don't know, this is what it looks like in the order book. 6,783 contracts offered that can't hit the bid because the market is locked. If you're long and can't exit, how do you feel right now? Don't hit the bid just because it's not going lower.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

4 years

The ES book is very thin today. Not a good sign. Could see another round of chaotic movement the next two weeks. Maybe not but be aware the risk of seeing another limit move is increasing.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

7 months

For what it's worth, the run higher on the open was nice but the stock index action has, imo, become one of the worst types of price action you can see. Extremely nasty whipsaw movement. Novices often get sliced and diced in this type of activity.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

9 months

For anyone interested, I posted a new article on my blog discussing the concept of anticipating momentum.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

3 years

A comment for newer traders. The behavior the last two days is due to a lot less liquidity on the bid/ask. This makes for more volatility. It's possible to look at the DOM early and know the day is probably going to be like this all day.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

1 year

There's been some serious manipulation in the stock indexes the last few weeks. Market makers are playing both sides even during the trends. It's the reason for all the back and forth action. Have to be patient and wait for the one-way (usually short-lived) momentum moves.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

6 years

I recently added a new blog post on my site which explains the importance of understanding context. You have to watch the micro picture in the order flow at times but you also always have to think about the macro picture.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

7 years

Hopefully some people find this enlightening. Thanks, Aaron.

Chat With Traders

@chatwithtraders

7 years

NEW · The order book—what traders must know about supply and demand w/ John Grady, @NoBSDayTrading 🔊

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

5 years

To all the young traders in the world...this happens;) I can talk about it till I'm blue in the face but people do not understand it (believe it) till they see it with their own eyes. There's no substitute for experience.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

2 years

John Danaher is an extremely wise individual. Worth hearing even if you are not into Jiu-Jitsu/MMA. Confidence in trading comes from building a skill set which achieves results...not from following a "system" which has not yet worked but may eventually

Psychologists are wrong: Confidence is the result of proven skills |...

Lex Fridman Podcast full episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZRbD7q1n-UPlease support this podcast by checking out our sponsors:- Audible: https://audi...

www.youtube.com

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

5 years

This is why strategies and results change throughout the year. A fast, thin, chaotic market cannot be traded the same as a slow, thick, more stable market. Trade what you see. Don't be foolish. There are no guarantees. Try not to go broke in one day...

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

5 years

I'm going to say it because I was around in '01 and '08, There's a chance the markets will be closed indefinitely. This isn't panic talk nonsense. The powers that be can't allow the carnage to continue much longer. Consider it a possibility because it is and plan accordingly.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

4 years

Haven't posted for awhile but had a thought this morning. The rally in the stock indexes back to these levels is probably the single best example I could show when explaining why I don't hold overnight positions. I see no sane reason for the buying but it's been happening.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

7 years

For anyone who is interested, I did a podcast with Aaron @chatwithtraders . Had to snap a not ideal selfie for it...

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

2 years

I do believe most traders in the States have taken off for the holiday week. Serious lack of volatility yesterday and today and most likely the same tomorrow. Enjoy the long weekend, everyone.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

3 years

Also, the CME is launching new treasury futures contracts August 16th. Micros based on trading the yield. Could be interesting. Will have to see what the fees are and how much liquidity appears.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

6 months

This is the type of action I avoid in stocks/stock index futures. Imho, much too difficult. Book is thin and they are all over the place on light volume.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

5 years

For the young peeps... I am not one to make long-term calls but current conditions are extremely reminiscent of 1999-2001. That's how old I am. It would seem all common sense has left the building.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

3 years

It can be easy to give away money for no reason because of boredom or frustration during this type of day. More often than not, as soon as you take a trade, the market goes the opposite direction. If that's happening to you, best to stop and come back tomorrow.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

3 years

Slow paced, whipsaw activity in stock indexes this morning. Grinding but can't get paid decently no matter which way I go. I suppose it's an obvious statement. Not much to do when there's low volatility.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

4 years

As far as markets, the light liquidity and low volatility in stocks today is what happens when institutions cut way back on their size. No point in committing to positions when current events are this crazy. Usually very few opportunities on these days. Context...

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

6 years

Pretty uneventful non-farm Friday. At least in terms of today's volatility. There can be good days in Aug but it really does tend to be one of the slowest months of the year. Expect more of the same during the next few weeks. Especially the last week going into Labor Day weekend.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

2 years

If you're a young person who's attention span isn't limited to 2 minute shorts, this is worth watching;)

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

7 years

Here is the webinar video on YouTube.

Sharks: Facts & Myths about banks, funds, market makers w/John Grady...

Presented by: John Grady (No BS Trading), topics include:- Learn the Facts and Myths about banks, funds, market makers, and proprietary trading firms- What a...

www.youtube.com

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

3 years

Fairx exchange products are supposed to launch today. Zero-commission futures trading. Will be interesting to see if they gain traction and if the liquidity and volatility make them worthwhile. Keep an eye on them. Could be a game changer in the industry.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

9 months

Many new traders are unaware of number releases so fyi, Michigan Sentiment at 10:00am today. Triggers movement. Usually choppy at the open as everyone waits for the number. Then there's erratic spike activity at 10. I don't hold into numbers for this reason. Be cautious early

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

6 years

I'm conducting a webinar for @futuresio this Thursday, Sep 13th at 4:30pm EDT. I'll be focusing on the importance of understanding different types of price action. This is the registration link.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

6 years

Remember this is FOMC week. Meeting tomorrow. Decision Wed. That's why the markets are barely moving today. When I discuss "context", this is what I mean. There are days when the volatility is good and days when it's not. Conditions change. Don't force trades in bad action.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

2 years

Thanks to @AaronKorbs for inviting me on his podcast. The video is now live on YT.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

2 years

Posted a new article on my site today. If you're interested...

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

7 months

One more thought to end the week. Those types of sell-offs are gifts. Try to capitalize on them as much as possible when they appear. Not going to see that type of momentum and follow-through very often.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

4 years

ZM...P/E ratio of 1,409. NKLA...P/E of 1,054. Stock markets have always been, to some degree, casinos for the masses. But it's reached the point where true value literally doesn't matter. It's all about throwing dice. "Value? Who cares about value? We just want to get paid."

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

4 years

If there has ever been a time to hope for the best and prepare for the worst, this is it. Don't be caught wondering what to do if the situation continues to deteriorate. Better to have a game plan and not need it than to need it and not have it.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

2 years

Yeah. Word to the wise. This is the type of day to shut down the platform now, win or lose. Otherwise, a prairie dog hole can become a bottomless pit. Speaking from experience. Market makers have complete control.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

7 years

Just posted interviews with two successful students. If you want to hear how these traders went from a 1 lot to trading 20+ contracts at a clip, check out the interviews here:

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

4 years

FYI, Treasury contracts have rolled to March 2021. Sometimes people forget since treasuries roll much earlier than the index futures.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

2 years

Whipsaw city today. Exciting. Everyone is waiting for the Fed. Newer traders, take note of the volatility today vs yesterday morning. This is why you have to get it when it's there. Lots of days like today even when there is no Fed meeting.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

5 years

Not to state the obvious but what we're seeing is a exactly why I emphasize understanding "context". ES has been roughly 200+ on the bid/ask most days for months. Now it's average is 50 or less on bid/ask. Trading the last 2 days is not like last two months. Things change.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

5 years

#vegasshutdown When the casinos close the doors, you know it's getting real. Although, as one guy said, it will be the most profitable month of the year for most gamblers in the city.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

4 years

This is probably going to be a tough day to trade. Fairly wide overnight range in tsys with a lot of volume at most traded prices. No obvious S/R. Stock traders will most likely not commit to size today which leads to a lot of chop with frequent slow periods. Expect thin volume

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

7 years

For newer traders (or experienced who forget), remember this is rollover week in tsys. The action will be different. Constant heavy spreading. Main roll days are tomorrow and Thu. Already decent volume in the March contracts.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

5 years

New blog post. Yesterday's tweets and some text exchanges prompted the idea. Hope you find it enlightening.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

4 years

I have friends in Chicago who are afraid to leave their homes. One person is having his family sleep on the floor and avoid standing near windows and doors because there are gunshots all around them every night. People are being robbed, beat and shot in the streets. It's anarchy.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

3 years

The action can look enticing but this type of day is usually difficult for inexperienced traders. It's easy to get whipsawed all day in the chop. Whereas last week it may have taken 1000 contracts to move the ES a point, today it may only take 100 at times. Hence the fast moves.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

5 years

Haven't posted in a bit. The reliable "summer slowdown" has vanished. For that matter, predicting certain periods to be slow or volatile is, imo, impossible now. The rally the day after Christmas last year is proof of that. This summer has been rocking.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

2 years

FYI, this morning's stock index action is price manipulation at its finest. Market makers have complete control. They get away with it on days when there is little danger of them being run over by other large institutions. Spike it one way. Cover. Spike it the other way. Cover.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

5 years

Don't forget this is rollover week for treasuries with the main roll day being tomorrow. The roll combined with a holiday midweek creates days like today.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

5 years

Caution this morning: this is what, imho, can be defined as classic "bad price action" in the tsys. Be super careful right now. Precisely the kind of action where most traders get whipsawed and quickly lose their minds along with their money.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

2 years

This light liquidity/high volatility situation often makes for very difficult day trading unless you have a lot of experience with it. Even then it can be tough. Most people should avoid it. Markets tend to be an easier read when there is slower movement and more liquidity.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

4 years

I'm running a live futures webinar in March and have just released a stock market course as well. If interested, check out these pages on my site: Feel free to hit me up through the contact page on my site or PM me here.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

6 years

I haven't heard this yet but I stress this to my students and am familiar with Rande so I imagine it's a good interview. Everything about good trading goes against the natural biological process. We are not programmed to sit and do nothing for hours while waiting for solid setups

Topstep

@Topstep

6 years

When you trade, you are fighting thousands of years of biology. That's why it's so hard. We talk with trading psychologist Rande Howell about how to improve your mindset to succeed in trading.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

7 years

If the markets are extremely thick and slow this week, don't force bad trades. The gov shutdown is probably going to cause some problems. If so, just accept it and save the money for better days. We may see some decent action but it's not likely.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

6 years

Remember this is rollover week for treasuries. The main roll days are Thu and Fri. This will definitely affect the action so just be aware of it. I usually get a few emails asking why there are suddenly very few bids and offers in the book. It's da roll...

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

2 years

This is why pros watch the order flow and price action. Mr Mad Money speaking truth long before his TV performance theater act began. The plot could be taken straight from the show Billions.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

1 year

As I was saying...heavy hitters finally buy into new highs, that triggers buy stops, institutions liquidate into the stops, price stops moving higher, people chasing the move get stuck wondering why it stopped. That's why. Now they are back to playing both sides.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

5 years

Be careful this morning. Volume is trading but there's a ton of spoofing and auto orders adding and cancelling. Gonna be choppy for a bit probably. May settle into some heavier bids/offers later.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

6 months

I recently participated in a podcast interview where I shared quite a bit of information about market maker tactics and the ways game theory applies in trading. If interested, it can be seen here:

Game Theory Optimal: John Grady Reveals Institutional Order Flow...

EPISODE SPONSOR: JIGSAW TRADING → SPECIAL OFFER✅ Free Professional Order Flow Training: https://go.tradacc.com/Jigsaw-Order-Flow-LessonsDive deep into the wo...

www.youtube.com

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

4 years

During this type of day, it can become obvious that a runaway train is developing and you don't want to step in front of it but there can be sharp, rapid bounces and/or reversals which can make it difficult to call good entries and logical exits.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

9 months

The mistake many traders make, even experienced, is not taking full advantage of all the vol when the markets are in Grand Prix mode like today. Then they hold too long letting profitable trades become losses on range days because they keep waiting for the runs that never happen.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

2 years

Action in stocks and treasuries is a bit nasty and choppy this morning. Very different from yesterday. Haven't done much. It's busy but hard to read.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

7 years

As I was saying...back and forth on lighter volume with no rhyme nor reason. Distinctly different from the last four days. New traders should compare in order to get a better feel for how a difference in price action affects strategy. All days are not the same.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

1 year

Click the image to see the entire picture.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

3 years

I'm running a live, two week long futures webinar which starts Sep 27th and following it with a two week long stock trading webinar which starts Oct 18th. Details can be found on these pages. Please email or PM me with questions.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

4 years

From an interview I recently read. I am reminded of the economist Herb Stein who once said, "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop." To which Rudi Dornbusch quipped: “Yes, but it will go on for a lot longer than you anticipate.” Testify.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

5 years

Treasury traders, remember to roll to the December contracts today.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

2 years

Congrats to a student of mine who is officially making money working for @Positive_Equity . They are looking for new applicants. Contact them if you're willing to move to Ireland or Croatia.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

7 months

Treasury traders, if you find you cannot place orders in the March contracts today, it means you need to roll to June 2024. New traders often forget this. Treasuries roll earlier than most contracts.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

9 months

Yet another lovely back and forth whipsaw morning.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

5 years

TSLA. Yet to turn a profit. Market cap at current price is greater than Ford, GM and Fiat Chrysler combined. 60% of Toyota's market cap. Sold 200K cars vs the 2 million sold by Toyota last year. I get the short squeeze. But me thinks delusions of grandeur abound.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

7 years

Notice the distinct difference between today's action and yesterday's action in the tsys. This is what I describe as "bad action" overall especially in comparison to yesterday which was great action. There is a back and forth today which can create dangerous whipsaw movement.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

9 months

These days are always nice. Get short. Stay short. Get paid as the entire world goes the same way at the same time. Then get long and stay long as the entire world covers at the same time. Good stuff. Bit of holding pattern now. More potential but the best has probably passed.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

5 years

Trading this type of vol usually requires a decent amount of experience. It's often best for newer traders to sit tight, watch and learn. The change is due to fundamentals. You're seeing it in most markets. Things can stay this way for awhile. I've seen it many times.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

2 years

Stating the obvious but today is a good example of a day when there's not much point in fighting the trend in stocks. A person may find it too slow and not want to participate but there weren't many arguments to be made for short trades up to this point.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

8 years

Tomorrow is quadruple witching. Fed did it's thing. Inexperienced traders should typically avoid this type of action. Easy to get hammered.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

5 years

S&P futures are limit down. I sent out an email Fri saying the danger was real but I didn't expect limit down Sun night. Order book is thinnest I've seen in years. Tread carefully and do not find yourself on the wrong side of a limit move. CME publishes the numbers every day

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

5 years

I've received a lot of questions about the current state of the markets. Posted a new, short blog offering some thoughts for those interested.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

3 years

World is waiting for the Fed announcement. Pace of activity will probably remain this way till then.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

3 years

This is a recent blog post of mine: This morning's action in the stock indexes is a good example of the "whipsaw chop" action I describe in the post.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

6 years

For anyone trading treasuries this week, remember tomorrow and Friday are the main roll days. Moving to Dec contract. My reco is take off Fri and make it a four day weekend (Labor Day holiday Mon).

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

2 years

This is excellent. Worth the 4 hours.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

7 years

Thoughts on the week which may help traders who do not fully understand what I mean when I say context. If you compare Mon and Tue to Wed and all three of them to today, you will see a big difference in price action. All days are not the same.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

4 years

I don't think people overseas understand what's actually happening. This is a criminal's dream scenario. And it's spreading nationwide. We are heading for disaster unless some magical reset button gets pressed soon. I'm just sayin'...prepare for the possibility. Hope for the best

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

9 months

The action in the indexes yesterday and today has not been good. It is the definition of 'whipsaw'. Not impossible but very difficult to make money when there is rarely any decent follow-through in one direction. Inexperienced traders often lose on these days for this reason.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

7 years

Treasury traders should be careful right now. Heavy spreading taking place. ZF breaking lows but the others not following. Can make for difficult trading.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

6 years

Tsys are moving but this isn't really the best action for scalping them. The ups and downs are connected to the stock market and there is a ton of volume in the ZN. Be careful about fighting the trend. Newer traders can find themselves picking all the wrong spots on these days.

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John Grady

@NoBSDayTrading

2 years

It is obvious to anyone who has worked in the industry. There can be a grind in one direction as is happening now but it's very calculated. This is why you see all the slow, back and forth movement.

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